Peak Oil is You
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Page added on July 12, 2016
Forget peak oil – now its peak energy
United States is leading a decline in energy use amongst advanced economies – with use down 2% last year despite GDP growth. The previous year (2013-2014) EU countries saw a 10% drop in energy use – partly due to economic chaos in Greece, Spain and Italy.
Th uneexpected fall is due to greater efficiency, new materials and the rise of renewables — all the standard projections still predict ever rising demand driven by population growth and the spread of prosperity in emerging economies. That assumption, however, begins to look too simplistic. The reality is more complex. Forget the old debate about peak oil. Now it seems we are approaching peak energy.
The data speak for themselves and are summarised here by Enerdata. It covers the 20 nations which represent more than 80 per cent of global gross “democratic” product.
Economic growth. Energy consumption
2015 + 2.8 % + 0.5 %
2014 + 3.4 % + 1.1 %
2003-13 + 3.7 % + 2.1 %
Within this aggregate data there are a number of different national stories reflecting the influence of different patterns of economic activity and of course the very different resource bases.
In the EU total primary energy demand is down by almost 11 per cent in the past decade. Oil consumption has fallen by 17 per cent; natural gas by almost a fifth.
In China demand growth has slowed in the past three years — as a result of the recession but also because of the changes in industrial structure. Coal remains the dominant fuel but falls in steel and cement production, and in efficiency gains, appear to have decoupled energy demand from GDP. The caution, as ever, is the quality of Chinese statistics.
In the US total energy consumption has been flat for the past decade, with a strong shift in the mix in favour of gas as a result of domestic shale developments.
India is in many ways the outlier. Strong economic growth is fully reflected in increased energy use, and in growing use of coal as the primary source of energy. Coal in India, as the Enerdata commentary puts it, is privileged and low cost. Some 35GW of new coal-fired power plants have been installed in the past two years alone.
Even though coal use fell in almost every other country, Indian consumption was sufficient (along with high levels of use in nations such as Germany) to allow coal to remain the largest single source of primary energy across the G20. The strongest growth in GDP and energy consumption is in areas still heavily reliant on coal in the absence of any readily available low-cost alternative for the production of power and heat. This tempers the impact of the slowdown in energy use on CO2 emissions. The trend is positive — emissions barely increased in 2015 — but not sufficient to meet the targets set at the Paris climate meeting last year.
The stagnation of total energy consumption highlights the fact that demand is not driven by price alone. The standard assumption might have been that sharply reduced prices — for oil, gas and coal — would lead to a rise in demand. The reality is that price signals are often muffled by subsidies (in countries such as India) and by taxation (as in the UK). In most countries factors other than price are clearly more important in determining how much energy we use.
The crucial factor in the shift in the relationship between economic growth and energy use is not price but technology. Those thinking of the future should take note of the fact that the obvious gains in energy efficiency and intensity clearly have further to go. As yet we have barely seen the benefits of smart meters and grids, the application of advanced materials and the continuing gains in areas such as fuel efficiency. There is more to come and an obvious target is the amount of energy that is still wasted.
Stagnation does not mean that we have yet reached peak energy demand. We do not know the details of what is happening in China or the extent to which the emergence of the Chinese from recession will push energy demand back up again. India is now the main driver of energy consumption and unsurprisingly, given the need for basic infrastructure and construction, energy intensity there continues to rise. It is hard to see that trend reversing. Worldwide, population growth continues and in addition there are still well over 1bn people excluded from the world market by poverty. If that number can be reduced, energy demand should grow — but, with OECD demand beginning to fall, the net result could well be that we will see peak global energy demand within the next decade.
35 Comments on "Forget peak oil – now its peak energy"
Boat on Tue, 12th Jul 2016 6:05 pm
A few of of the posters recognise and post links showing the impact of emerging tech and efficiency gains. The outlook for huge gains looks promising even over the short term.
As climate change becomes more obvious with each passing year look for the world to transition to tougher regulations for FF. Fear will drive much higher investments in lower co2 options.
Apneaman on Tue, 12th Jul 2016 7:16 pm
Boat, I see you still have not grasped the concept of inertia. The humans have gone too far, so none of it matters except to bring it on even quicker. Tipping points have been crossed and tipping point means the earth systems cannot go back to their human friendly state. There are too many unstoppable positive self reinforcing feedback loops in play that will puke out more carbon than the puny humans ever could. It’s a carbon planet. That’s what the warning were all about. The cut off date was probably somewhere around 1995. Build all the solar and wind and efficiency you want. It won’t make one fucking bit of difference now. No one is going to stop anyway. Can you show me even one thing that has slowed the environmental carnage on the global scale? The only thing I can think of is the Montreal Protocol and that was really only dealing with 6 large companies and there were readily available alternatives. It’s all talk. Bla bla bla and everything gets worse by the year. And the fear thing? No to that also. What actually happens is the opposite – the humans are even more destructive and reckless in the face of any existential crisis.
Did you not see the link I posted a few hours ago? It contradicts everything you just said. You only seem to notice the links that confirm that what you wish to believe. The humans ability to filter bad news and replace it with fantasy never ceases to amaze me.
Republican platform declares coal is clean
“After a unanimous vote on Monday, the RNC’s draft platform officially declares coal “an abundant, clean, affordable, reliable domestic energy resource.””
http://grist.org/election-2016/republican-platform-declares-coal-is-clean/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4gxKFAhfZc
See how easy it is to create your own temporary alternate reality? So it is written so it shall be done. Not any different than what was done at COP-21. They just proclaimed a bunch of hopey dopamine producing horse shit and the sheep ate it up. Alternate realities all over.
Man child Trump has already said he is going to take the EPA and it’s regulations apart if he wins. Imagine if the conservatards control it all? It will just speed things along since everything got worse under Obama except for US oil extraction-that broke records. Nothing has been done, everything has gotten worse and the humans will never voluntarily stop because they are doing exactly what their ancient DNA has programmed them to do.
JuanP on Tue, 12th Jul 2016 7:19 pm
What is GDP growth? Does this metric have any value? Is paying more to imprison people growth? Does financial speculation benefit more than the 1%? Are economic bubbles growth? The world’s GDP keeps growing but the lives of the majority of people are getting worse and we are destroying the only planet we have, is this sustainable? Is producing more energy to spend it in producing more energy benefitting anyone? Are price inflation and currency devaluation growth? This people don’t understand what is going on!
Survivalist on Tue, 12th Jul 2016 8:17 pm
Watch to food price index. BAU will carry on in one way or another until people start missing a lot of meals. The price of oil and climate disruption will have large impacts on food price.
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Survivalist on Tue, 12th Jul 2016 8:19 pm
http://tinyurl.com/hqbl6ke
GregT on Tue, 12th Jul 2016 8:31 pm
“A few of of the posters recognise and post links showing the impact of emerging tech and efficiency gains. The outlook for huge gains looks promising even over the short term.”
A few of the posters have actually embraced alternate electric power generation. Those who have, understand that the future is about conservation.
Learning to live with dramatically less than what we have become accustomed to. Not huge gains, but massive reductions.
Survivalist on Tue, 12th Jul 2016 8:32 pm
Food price vs riots
http://tinyurl.com/zkoep77
Its pretty obvious what caused ‘the Arab spring’.
The waves of unregulated mass migration has only just begun.
The barbarians will soon descend upon the empire like a wolf on the fold.
TPTB can kick this can down the road a long way still. But once the shelves are bare the wheels will come of this bus real fast.
Climate change and decreasing net energy will hit the food supply and when it does it’s gonna get real hard real fast.
brough on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 5:50 am
Again the USA has saved the world, this time by discovering an economic formula to reduce energy consumption whilst at the same time increasing GDP.
shortonoil on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 6:24 am
“with use down 2% last year despite GDP growth. “
They are measuring GDP with dollars, but dollars are not a constant. The value of the dollar changes constantly, and the banking industry has been desperate in recent years to create dollars. The author has forgotten TARP, QE1 to QE..?, dollar swaps, and the monetization of anything not nailed down, and a few things that were. If energy is calculated in dollars, which they probably did, and the price of oil falls 50%, which it did, the amount of energy used in dollars goes down.
Unfortunately, that has zero effect on BTU used. Use a stupid metric to calculate energy use, and one gets a stupid result! This is just another sneaky apples, and oranges comparison. In actuality the purchasing power of a dollar fell by 225 BTU over the last year. One dollar is buying less and less energy every year.
Next month they will talk about how the chocolate ration has been increased to 4 grams from 6.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_008.htm
marmico on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 7:10 am
You fuctard.
U.S. energy consumption in 2015 fell by 0.983 quads or 0.99% relative to 2014.
http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec1_7.pdf
JuanP on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 8:09 am
Marmi, Do you think the quality of life of the American population improved in 2015 because GDP grew (whatever the fuck that means)? Or did it deteriorate by 1% or more because energy consumption contracted? Please enlighten us with your understanding, oh, wise one!
Ralph on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 9:43 am
The USA is so broken.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/13/us-food-waste-ugly-fruit-vegetables-perfect
Reportedly half of all US food produce fails to make it to a plate. Yet the US population is massively obese. The US could feed itself with a quarter of it’s current food production, if a lower quantity of meet ((in particular Beef) was consumed, and the people would be immensely better off.
There is no physical need for the world to see starvation for at least the next 30 years, but I expect food riots to return within 5.
marmico on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 9:55 am
When you are out in your flip flops in the middle of Collins Avenue clipping your toe nails after softening them with tidewater, ask the additional net ~2.5 million persons now on payrolls.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
U.S. oil consumption reached a maxima in 2005. I would guess that that record will not be broken. Increases in vehicle miles travelled will be more than fully offset by increases in fuel efficiency and electrification of the fleet.
U.S. energy consumption reached a maxima in 2007 at 101.3 quads. I would guess that that record will be broken in the future.
Ktos on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 10:18 am
BP says that last year world energy consumption grew by 1 percent. So GDP growth without energy consumption growth stays a theory.
JuanP on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 10:23 am
Marmi, You are displaying your stupidity and ignorance again. I don’t own or wear flip flops because I consider them impractical. I only walk on Collins Avenue when I am on my way to the community garden. I see that you seem to think that having more people getting paid wages on which they can’t make a living is a sign of progress and prosperity. You couldn’t be more stupid if you tried, moron. Where you born like this? Your mother should have aborted you!
JuanP on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 10:24 am
Marmi, You are displaying your stupidity and ignorance again. I don’t own or wear flip flops because I consider them impractical. I only walk on Collins Avenue when I am on my way to the community garden. I see that you seem to think that having more people getting paid wages on which they can’t make a living is a sign of progress and prosperity. You couldn’t be more stupid if you tried, moron. Where you born like this? Your mother should have aborted you!
And please stop quoting the Fed and the EIA’s forecasts. Only a retard with nothing useful to do would waste their time reading their lies.
JuanP on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 10:28 am
This website has been acting up on me these past few weeks! I have been problem loading the pages at PO. This is the first time I double post, I believe, and I have no idea how it happened. Is anyone else having problems or is it my computer illiteracy playing tricks on me again?
marmico on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 11:11 am
Let me know when you abort the ETP fuctard’s mother, you raving innumerate.
Apneaman on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 11:27 am
marmi, even your criminal banking overlords admit how much of a failure the entire system is.
Celebrate what? The trillions spent by central banks has been a dud, says Bank of America
“But not so fast. The solid data mask a worrisome reality — despite the trillions collectively spent by central banks to breathe life into their economies since the 2008 financial crisis, authorities have been largely shooting blanks, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”
“Yet the same report revealed that the labor participation rate—a metric to measure those who are employed or actively searching for jobs—is hovering at a 38-year low of 62.7%.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/celebrate-what-the-trillions-spent-by-central-banks-has-been-a-dud-says-bank-of-america-2016-07-11
If they/you/sheep are really really lucky they might get another 2 years out of the final can kick to make it an even decade. All your economic priests got every fucking thing they wanted, got a free pass to try and fix things and made it worse – econ 101 fail, econ 101 fail, econ 101 fail.
38-year low of 62.7%
38-year low of 62.7%
38-year low of 62.7%
38-year low of 62.7%
38-year low of 62.7%
38-year low of 62.7%
38-year low of 62.7%
JuanP on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 11:39 am
Marmi, I am going to prove you wrong again. Here it goes!
2+3+4=9
See, I am not innumerate and I just proved that in an irrefutable non raving way. Can you please provide proof that you are not irredeemably stupid and prove me wrong? LOL!
marmico on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 12:11 pm
Well, the doom porn meteorologist is much less innumerate than the Collins Avenue permaculture toe clipping retard.
Let’s have a go on the participation rate. You don’t work and neither does your mother. Your mother worked 38 years ago. What does that do to the numerator and denominator? The numerator goes down by 1 and the denominator goes up by 1. Voila!
Much of the participation decline is just the aging of the population. Anytime you have something to bring to the conversation when it comes to the compositional decline in the participation rate let the toe nail clipper know.
onlooker on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 12:27 pm
Hey fucktard Marmico. Case you didn’t know it the world is going to hell in a handbasket and they’re you are studying those little economic indicators which are falsified and trying to interpret them just right so you can post to us the good news. By now you must know we do not drink that flavor of kool-aid. So your self congratulatory remarks are just like drops in the vast ocean of your ignorance.
marmico on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 12:33 pm
Fuck off.
shortonoil on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 1:07 pm
“Let me know when you abort the ETP fuctard’s mother, you raving innumerate. “
Since Marm bases his entire analysis on whether or not Joe Six is going to buy beer, or gasoline it is not surprising that he misses few things! The Central Banks are now attempting to back fill a $2.3 trillion annual lose from petroleum. How many other areas they have to prop up is outside of our analysis, but it is undoubtedly quit a few. By just following oil we can be very certain the the world has now entered a deflationary cycle that can not be stopped; short of an outright miracle. Everything from the labor participation rate, to the DBI, to negative interest rates, to falling corporate profits assures it.
It’s a little difficult to judge when this tight rope walking contest will end. When the walker will plunge into the abyss. Judging by the extreme effort that Central Banks are putting forth all over the world to keep stock markets up, at least, they believe it will be when the equity markets collapse. When that happens the other 99% of the population that the banks don’t control directly will panic. They will stop shopping for junk that they don’t need or even want. They will begin digging holes in their back yard to hide little steel boxes that contain their most valued possessions. This over leveraged, over indebted economic system will unravel like a hand knitted sweater snagged on some projection of a passing garbage truck.
Make no mistake, this Houdini feat of perpetual levitation against the the laws of gravity must end. The 150 year experiment of a modern civilization based solely on oil must fail. The string that ties it all together, the vast wealth created from oil, will unwind, and break!
We will have no one to blame but ourselves. Our myopic, short sighted belief that the world is our oyster to be consumed at any rate we wish for our convenience and pleasure. When the pond goes dry the oyster dies, and so also will our hand knitted illusions.
marmico on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 1:19 pm
Wow, the ETP fuctard is now an expert economist fuctard. Central banks, participation rates, leverage, equity markets, corporate profits, knitted sweaters…
Whatever happened to oil reservoir temperatures, fuctard?
The only thing that has broken is your failed empirical proofs. The ETP fuctard that went from $209/barrel oil in 2020 to $12/barrel. Pathetic.
Get the toe nail clipper to abort your mother.
Don Stewart on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 1:52 pm
Some nice kudos for the work of The Hills Group:
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2016/07/some-reflections-on-twilight-of-oil-age.html
Don Stewart
JuanP on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 1:56 pm
Marmi, You just keep proving how stupid and ignorant you are! LOL! You are a fucking joke! You are stupidity incarnate!
I guess you don’t know the definition of innumerate. Look it up in the dictionary if you know how to use one. You shouldn’t use words with more than two syllables; they are too hard for you. You are only proving yourself a functional illiterate on top of being a stupid ignorant prick!
By the way, my mother never had to work in her life because she was born very, very rich; she had more money when she was born than you will ever make working. Life’s a bitch! Go work, loser! I just got back from my secong garden break of the day.
JuanP on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 2:01 pm
Marmi, Do you have fungi on your toenails? Why are you so obsessed with them? Do you have a toenail fetish? Do you want to suck mine? LOL!
Dustin Hoffman on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 3:26 pm
Best to stock up on tuna cans..looks like they will more valuable than precious metals….
Boat on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 5:31 pm
ape,
“If they/you/sheep are really really lucky they might get another 2 years out of the final can kick to make it an even decade”.
So if no government spent $1 in response to the crash. What would have happened?
Apneaman on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 6:57 pm
What would have happened?
Same as what happened last time 1930-45, except on a scale never seen before.
The “problem” boat is nothing has changed. It’s been even more of the same thing, which is what entrenched elites have always done unless stopped by violence or threat of it. So if they have not made any structural changes to a corrupt and broken system that almost went under in 2008 why would you expect a different result? Feel free to embarrass me and explain why it won’t happen again.
Didn’t that Einstein dude mention something about doing the same thing and expecting different results is the very definition of insanity?
Actually it’s changes that have been made the wrong way that lead to 2008. Like Clinton signing away the Glass-Steagall Act, and making corporations “people too!” along with regulatory capture, and on and on and on. Checks and balances, the rule of law and a high level of inclusion is what makes systems/nations successful and most of it has been gutted by the elites in the US as elsewhere. It’s a power game that has been played since civilization started. The shit will hit the fan and a new elite may come to power if they win, but somehow I don’t see the next incarnation of the founding fathers and their high ideals (some of the best ever) in the cards.
Boat on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 11:10 pm
ape,
So it turns out they kept the world from collapse for 8 years and counting. You should be like your parliament and be chanting 4 more years. Be thankful for the ice cream you got to eat.
Apneaman on Wed, 13th Jul 2016 11:37 pm
Ya boat, they saved themselves from themselves by robbing the taxpayer blind – all perfectly legal of course. I quit ice cream 3 months ago and switched to meat & greens -35lb drop and now I be pretty again. Sorry, but I don’t get the parliament – 4 years chanting reference. Ever watch parliament? Can be great fun watching the overseers go at each other during question period. Even the leader is fair game for the critics – no hiding behind a podium taking questions from select reporters like in DC – boring.
Watch this recent Canadian clown show.
House of Commons Question Period: Trudeau Calls Kent “Piece of Shit” (News)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zLKFuG7PUk
GregT on Thu, 14th Jul 2016 12:07 am
“So it turns out they kept the world from collapse for 8 years and counting.”
Collapse isn’t a moment in time Kevin, it’s a process. A process that is already well underway. For the complete idiots such as yourself, now would be a very good time to go all in, in your dollar cost averaging. You’re going to lose your shirt Kevi, and your share in your rental accommodations.
Kenz300 on Thu, 14th Jul 2016 6:49 am
Every new home should come with SOLAR panels and battery storage and be energy efficient.
Wasting money on heating and cooling is foolish when you can save money and energy by adding insulation, sealing air leaks and using solar energy or wind power.
Also close off rooms that are not in use and reduce your heating / cooling costs.
Many utilities and other companies offer energy efficiency audits where they come to your home put a negative air generator in the door way and then go around the home looking for air leaks. They then provide an estimate of the cost to seal the leaks and add insulation if needed
Having this done can save 20% or more on energy bills starting the very next month…….and every month after that………..save energy……….save money………..