Here are the latest oil production numbers from the EIA. All data is in thousand barrels per day unless otherwise noted.
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The USA through May 2018. The upward surge has stalled for the last two months. U.S. production was down 30,000 bpd in May.
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It is a little astonishing how close the Texas chart resembles the USA chart. Texas is, by far, the USA’s largest producer. As Texas goes, so goes the USA. Texas production was up 20,000 bpd in May.
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North Dakota production has increased significantly in the last two months. They were up 67,000 bpd in April and up another 25,000 bpd in May.
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Gulf of Mexico production was down 99,000 bpd in April and down another 75,000 bpd in May.
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Alaska was down only 1,000 bpd in May but that was 12,000 bpd lower than last May. They are now entering the maintenance season. Expect huge drops in June and July.
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The EIA data in this chart is through April and the National Energy Board data is estimated through December 2018. The EIA data is usually lower than the NEB data but they both agree on April production.
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World crude oil production was up 326,000 bpd in April.
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Non-OPEC production reached a new peak in April, up 405,000 bpd to 47,159,000 bpd. Most of that increase was Canada, up 317,000 and the U.K., up 111,000 bpd.
Here I am adding a few charts and comments from ExxonMobil’s 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Their text is in italics. Any bold in their text is mine.
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• Technology improvements lead to wind, solar and biofuels increasing, with a combined growth of about 5 percent per year
• Non-fossil fuels reach about 22 percent of total energy mix by 2040
Related: The Three Best Oil Majors Of 2018
• Oil continues to provide the largest share of the energy mix; essential for transportation and chemicals
• Natural gas demand rises the most, largely to help meet increasing needs for electricity and support increasing industrial demand
• Oil and natural gas continue to supply about 55 percent of the world’s energy needs through 2040
• Coal’s share falls as OECD countries and China turn to lower-emission fuels
• Nuclear demand grows 70 percent between 2016 and 2040, led by China
• Wind, solar and biofuels reach about 5 percent of global energy demand
They assume that supply will always evolve to meet demand.
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This is what they say we will need in 2040 and will therefore be delivered by technology.
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And here is where all that oil will come from. North America is the U.S. and Canada. They count Mexico as part of Latin America. In 2040 they have total North American conventional production down to about 3.5 million barrels per day. They have at about 12 million bpd and oil sands at about 4.5 million bpd as best as I can eyeball the chart.
They have almost all conventional oil coming from the Middle East and Russia/Caspian. Caspian is mostly Azerbaijan.
• Global liquids production rises by 20 percent to meet demand growth
• Technology innovations lead to growth in natural gas liquids, tight oil, deepwater, oil sands and biofuels
• Technology enables efficient production from conventional sources, which still account for more than 50 percent of production in 2040
• Most growth over the Outlook period is seen in tight oil and natural gas liquids, which reach nearly 30 percent of global liquids supply by 2040
• Continued investment is needed to mitigate decline and meet growing demand
• Liquids trade balances shift as supply and demand evolve
• North America swings to a net exporter as shale growth continues
• Latin America exports increase from deepwater, oil sands and tight oil supplies
• The Middle East and Russia/Caspian remain major oil exporters to 2040, and Africa shifts to an importer
• Europe remains a net oil importer, as demand and production both decline
• Asia Pacific imports increase to 80 percent of oil demand in 2040
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This chart is a little shocking. They have total liquids declining to about 18 million bpd by 2040 without investment. That means if everyone stopped drilling today, or in 2016, that would be the natural decline of what is online today. But to meet demand we will need 97 million barrels per day of new oil.
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And this is what they say we have left, about 4.5 trillion barrels of remaining recoverable resources.
• Without further investment, liquids supply would decline steeply
• More than 80 percent of new liquids supply needed to offset natural decline
• Per the International Energy Agency, about $400 billion a year of upstream oil investment is needed from 2017 to 2040
• Global oil resources are abundant
• Oil resource estimates keep rising as technology improves
• Technology has added tight oil, deepwater and oil sands resources
• Less than one-quarter of global oil resources have been produced
• Remaining oil resources can provide about 150 years of supply at current demand
So not to worry. Peak oil will not be reached in your lifetime, or in the lifetime of your children, grandchildren or greatgrandchildren. Well, that is if these estimates are correct.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 10:47 am
I hope the CEO of exxon is around when BAU goes down..He deserves to suffer..
Outcast_Searcher on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 11:13 am
1). SO? Who (credibly) says there will be no new investment?
2). Did you look at your own charts? One of them clearly says the bulk of production increses will be GTL (there’s LOTS of NG) and tight oil.
3). The economic principles of supply and demand still work. When the price of oil persistently gets high enough, the profit motive will have a LOT more investment going on, re finding and producing more oil. Same as it ever was.
4). Thus, customers might not like the prices of things like gasoline. But that will be a huge incentive for companies to produce and people to buy, far more efficient HEV’s, PHEV’s, and BEV’s. Again — economic forces do work over time.
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 11:15 am
The time that I took serious amateurs and drama queens in need for high book sales, like Richard Heinberg, are long behind me. Not to mention outright sociopaths like millimind.
“And this is what they say we have left, about 4.5 trillion barrels of remaining recoverable resources.:
Right
PEAK OIL SUPPLY 2010 IS DEAD
Worry about climate change and worry about too much hydro-carbons, not too few.
The sport is to get rid of them as fast as possible before they get rid of us.
http://www.euronews.com/2018/08/01/temperatures-in-spain-and-portugal-could-exceed-48-degrees-breaking-all-time-europe-record
“Temperatures in Spain and Portugal could exceed 48 degrees — breaking all-time Europe record”
MASTERMIND on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 11:46 am
The easy oil is gone
Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.
Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery.
In 2017 oil discoveries were about 7 billion barrels; consumption was about 35 billion barrels
Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917-1968; 2 in the 1970’s; 0 since.
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
International Energy Agency says U.S. shale won’t fill the void which could lead to petroleum shortages
LONDON—Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016, the International Energy Agency says, raising fresh concerns about the potential for a petroleum-supply shortage as soon as 2020.
Don’t expect output from U.S. shale producers to fill the void, the IEA said. American shale production is expected to grow by 2.3 million barrels a day or more over the next five years, but that isn’t enough to make up for declining output elsewhere.
The IEA also doesn’t expect global oil demand to stop growing any time soon, potentially turning the current glut of oil into a dearth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has also sounded the alarm over the potential for a looming supply gap in the long term. Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih told a London energy conference last year that “there will be a period of shortage of supply.”
Shale “is not enough by itself,” the IEA’s Mr. Birol said.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Reply
MASTERMIND on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 11:50 am
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages ahead
https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
People are almost completely ignoring a looming crisis for oil
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-oil-supply-and-demand-2016-9
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 11:50 am
“The easy oil is gone”
With shifting technology the concept of “easy oil” has become a moving target.
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 11:53 am
If next year temperatures in the US and Europe reach 50 Celsius, peak oil demand could be a fact in… 2019.
Antius on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 12:10 pm
“PEAK OIL SUPPLY 2010 IS DEAD”
Err…At the risk of pointing out the blatantly obvious here Cloggie, it DID happen in 2005. Take a look at the ‘Global Liquids Supply by Type – MBDOE’. Crude oil and condensates measured in ‘Millions of Barrels per day of Oil Equivalent’ rather than the more usual but less relevant ‘total liquids volume’, reached its all-time peak in 2005. It is now about 10% down from that peak.
So peak oil was 13 years ago and counting. It didn’t cause a zombie apocalypse and a road warrior future, like many people seemed to expect it would, but there it is – the peak oil date recorded in historical data.
Since 2005, all demand growth has been met by alternative liquids, which are generally more expensive to produce on a unit energy basis and have lower EROI. It is likely no coincidence that debt-GDP for most nations began increasing at a much higher gradient at about that time and average prosperity in first world countries started to decline at around that date. The Great Recession of 2008 will likely be remembered by historians as the debt-energy recession of the early 2000s.
‘Peak liquids’ is ahead of us as well, as there is now no price level that is both affordable to consumers and profitable for producers. Hence the huge drop in upstream investment after 2014. Oil prices were still high by historical standards, but evidently, not high enough to be profitable for producers.
A liquids supply shortage is expected to hit around 2020 – which is smack on the peak liquids date predicted by most analysts back in 2004-2010 era. It will probably hit us whilst the world is attempting to deal with the next big recession, which is now overdue. Oil prices will be low at the time, which will make it very difficult to mitigate the problem with any new investments in things like tight oil. Any mitigation needs to come from the demand side.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-02/buffetts-favorite-indicator-exposes-stock-market-more-primed-crash-ever
Boat on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 12:40 pm
The world will not collaspe at $70. oil/liquids/biofuels or anything else that runs transportation. The world does not care if it’s fuel comes from a declining conventional oil. The key point about collaspe from conventional oil or any other type of fuel was just wrong and it’s peak is still in the many years ahead.
The other main doomer point has been demand destruction. Once again, that hasn’t happened even though trillions of words have explained why it should have. Lol Keep plugging away boys.
Antius on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 1:20 pm
“The world will not collaspe at $70. oil/liquids/biofuels or anything else that runs transportation. The world does not care if it’s fuel comes from a declining conventional oil. The key point about collaspe from conventional oil or any other type of fuel was just wrong and it’s peak is still in the many years ahead.
The other main doomer point has been demand destruction. Once again, that hasn’t happened even though trillions of words have explained why it should have. Lol Keep plugging away boys.”
That is false on just about every count. The world is collapsing on $70 oil as I write!
1. US government deficit is expected to reach $1trillion in 2019. Other first world governments are in a similarly parlous state.
2. Chinese debt interest payments are estimated to be nearly 20% of GDP and they must now borrow just to cover existing debt payments!
3. Individual prosperity (i.e. disposable income) has declined by ~10% in every first world country except Germany since 2003.
4. Interest rates in major economies have never been so low for so long – practically zero for the past decade.
5. The major economies of the world have never faced so much debt and citizens have never seen such a protracted decline in personal living standards as they have in the past 15 years.
What do you think will happen in the next recession, if we are heading into it with these sorts of problems? You cannot use Keynesian economics to stimulate the economy when you are bankrupt. Arsing about with money supply isn’t going to help either – over the past ten years it has inflated asset bubbles and led to a surge in inequality and has now gone as far as it can without stoking hyperinflation.
The source of liquid fuels matters enormously, because every single alternative liquid source has a higher production cost than the legacy crude that it is attempting to replace. Rising energy costs has exactly the same effect on the economy as rising interest rates. Why do you think interest rates have been as low as they have been for the past decade?
MASTERMIND on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 1:33 pm
Boat
The world is collapsing from 70 dollar oil..The only thing that has kept it alive is zero interest rates and exploding debts..Which means the world is headed for cascading defaults..
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
Boat on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 2:11 pm
Oced countries would be fine with zero growth. End immigration and a slowely shrinking GDP would be fine. Efficiency improves living conditions with drops on price with a better product.
Exploding debt goes with low interest rates. Once rates return yes GDP will be lower but more sustainable. The world keeps building the bubble but a nice long recession would be good.
New products that consumers want will be fine.
Antius on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 2:27 pm
“Oced countries would be fine with zero growth.”
We have zero growth right now. The pitiful growth that we do achieve is outweighed by rising debt. The US government will borrow about $1trillion next year. That is about 7% of real GDP. Debt is growing much faster than our ability to repay it.
The average American is 7.5% poorer today than he was in 2005. The same pattern is observed in most other first world countries. Chinese prosperity has risen 41%, but further increases look unlikely.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/07/02/130-grand-bargains-dangerous-choices/
When you consider that GDP growth has been driven by rising debt and inflating the money supply since the turn of the century, it becomes clear that real US GDP may have actually declined since that time.
GregT on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 2:53 pm
“Oced countries would be fine with zero growth.”
That would be OECD countries Boat, not Oced, and as long as central banks are allowed to continue to create fiat money, out of thin air, with interest attached, growth is a necessary part of the equation. When growth ends, those fiat monetary systems will become so mired in exponentially growing mountains of debt, that they will eventually collapse in on themselves.
A feature, not a bug.
Boat on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 3:07 pm
A change in ideology can fix debt easy enough. Not with Trump but a future administration. The US immigrates much of it’s poor. An easy fix. How about this. A goal of 250 million citizens instead of the 330 million the US has. GDP drop? A huge one. Long term sustainability improves big time. One just needs to think outside the box.
Corporations and growth fans still rule but someday common sense will make a comeback.
george on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 3:08 pm
Peak horse manure began in 1913.
Boat on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 3:11 pm
greggiet
Any collaspe is just a buying opportunity for others. Capitalism 101. The darwinian principle.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 3:11 pm
Greg
Well put..Without growth the economy goes into a deflationary downward spiral..
MASTERMIND on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 3:14 pm
Boat
A global economic collapse means every corporation, government, social program, currency, going bankrupt..
And we don’t have the cheap resources to start to game over again..This was a one shot deal..And you can use your imagination what happens after the collapse.
twocats on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 3:24 pm
a lot of hysterical denial of the facts by ironically claiming Peakers are the ones out of touch with reality.
very very simple – if energy is so plentiful (and climate change is the big worry).
1) why can’t we just sequester CO2 with GTL
2) why are so many countries struggling to get the energy they need
3) why is oil sitting at $70+ a barrel
4) why is cost or debt even an issue – there should be plenty of energy to build out the renewable infrastructure and storage needed to stop using fossil fuels. i.e. why does the “sport” seem more like sisyphus’ task.
the reality is that the exxon report is a joke – plain and simple – and not twenty, thirty or fifty posts from half-wits like OS, boat, or clug going to change that.
GregT on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 3:31 pm
Boat,
“Any collaspe is just a buying opportunity for others.”
You might consider taking this opportunity to stock up on toilet paper. Or not, bare hands will still work, but could be a little smelly without soap.
GregT on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 3:35 pm
“Well put..Without growth the economy goes into a deflationary downward spiral..”
Fiat currencies themselves, always end in hyperinflation. There have been no exceptions.
Boat on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 4:27 pm
2 cat
Who says countries are struggling to get oil. Demand is over the average and has been for years.
$70? Let’s see. A geopolitical melt down in Venz. Trump sanctions Iran. OPEC/Russia cuts production by 1.8 mbpd because of a glut. Read about oil and you will learn these things.
Energy is being built out every day
As tech and price changes, winners and losers emerge as time goes by.
Davy on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 5:27 pm
“Fiat currencies themselves, always end in hyperinflation. There have been no exceptions.”
??? got some backup Milton?
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 12:08 am
Err…At the risk of pointing out the blatantly obvious here Cloggie, it DID happen in 2005.
You probably are referring to the sub-event known as “peak conventional oil“, that may indeed have happened between 2005 and now; we will only know for certain in say 100 years from now.
And this is what they say we have left, about 4.5 trillion barrels of remaining recoverable resources.
So far humanity has consumed something like 1 trillion barrels:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090507072830.htm
The main take-away point from Exxon is that technology is rapidly progressing, giving access to ever more combustible material.
And that is merely oil. Than there is sub-sea coal in unbelievable quantities (up to 30 trillion ton under the North Sea alone), that could be gasified, God forbid.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593032/Coal-fuel-UK-centuries-Vast-deposits-totalling-23trillion-tonnes-North-Sea.html
That would be 30 x 7 x 1 trillion = equivalent of 210 times the amount of oil burned to date.
Everybody who worries about running out of hydro-carbons should get his head checked.
We have too much, not too little.
We need to switch to renewables on the double, unless you aspire to know first hand how an egg feels in the process of becoming boiled.
Mike on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 5:45 am
Look as far as I’m concerned if a company is going in to massive debt to retrieve oil (shale) then its virtual EROEI (as dollars are the symbol for oil) is negative and actually hastening the demise of the economy. Sure oil prices might go up and make the virtual EROEI positive again but then the economy slows down even more. They’ve socialised the oil business through the back door by giving investment banks bailouts (public money) who then pump it into failing business’
Sissyfuss on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 9:41 am
My gawd, Wetbulb Clog is becoming a Climate Change Cassandra. Guess that’s what happens when your brain is being fried by record heat on a regular basis. Is there a solar powered air conditioner in his future?
MASTERMIND on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 11:34 am
Clog
Underground coal reserves from the daily mail?
HAhahahaah!
You are so dumb and will believe anything..
MASTERMIND on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 11:37 am
Clogg here is a peer reviewed scholarly paper on the world’s fossil fuels..In the journal of Fuel
Projection of world fossil fuels by country (Mohr, 2015)
Over 900 different regions and subfuel situations were modeled using three URR scenarios of Low, High, and Best Guess. All three scenarios indicate that the consistent strong growth in world fossil fuel (coal,oil,gas) production is likely to cease after 2025. The Low and Best Guess scenarios are projected to peak before 2025 and decline thereafter. The High scenario is anticipated to have a strong growth to 2025 before stagnating in production for 50 years and thereafter declining.
https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 12:52 pm
My gawd, Clog is becoming a Climate Change Cassandra.
You haven’t been paying attention, mr Oneliner. My promotion of renewable energy is firmly rooted in staving off climate change. I stopped believing in the Heinberg peak oil depletion rubbish by the end of 2012.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 2:13 pm
Clogg
Maybe its time you rethink about peak oil..Because its back! And this time it will break the global economy..
Is The World Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf
Harquebus on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 6:02 pm
“Without further investment, liquids supply would decline steeply”
Print baby, print!
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 11:56 pm
Maybe its time you rethink about peak oil..Because its back! And this time it will break the global economy..
I certainly hope so, as we need a good economic crisis to initiate the two necessary transitions (renewable energy and geopolitical):
1. $140 oil, due to exploration under-investment, not carbon depletion in general, like loons like you keep promoting. This oil price level would be a major boost to renewable energy investment
2. overthrow US empire and turn America in a normal country (or three)
A pork-cyclish oil price peak could help implode the US-centric financial system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 12:06 am
Clog
Underground coal reserves from the daily mail?
HAhahahaah!
Idiot.
http://www.thegwpf.com/coal-is-the-new-black-gold-under-the-north-sea/
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/now-king-coal-set-rule-6923421
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-12-28/3000-billion-tons-coal-norways-coastline/
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/10976533.What_to_do_about_North_Sea_coal__the_23_trillion_ton_question/
https://theecologist.org/2015/apr/03/underground-coal-gasification-hell-fires-threaten-tyneside-and-north-sea
It’s everywhere.
Cumulative oil burning throughout history: 0.135 trillion ton.
North Sea coal reserves: 23 trillion ton.
Sea? Um… see?
Peak Oil (Peak Carbon rather) is DEAD. Irreversibly, unrecoverable DEAD.
Only absolute morons like you cannot distance themselves from it because of your desired neo-bolshevik revolution. That is going to happen anyway, but not because of “peak oil”.
Harquebus on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 5:05 pm
With limited crude oil, all other types of energy production will be impossible to sustain.
There is no replacement for this vital resource that modern civilization depends on for its existence.