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Page added on July 1, 2016
Even in crisis, EU not a lead actor in world oil
The European Union’s crisis holds political and economic leaders transfixed, but for the oil market it merely underlines the region’s established role as only a secondary engine to global energy demand.
Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and strikes that crippled France’s energy industry in May, elicited barely a lasting ripple on global energy markets.
“In terms of oil, it’s the best place to have an economic slowdown without having a big impact on demand growth,” said Chris Main, oil strategist with Citi Group. “European industry just doesn’t contribute much to global demand growth.”
In oil demand growth, and in refining, the spotlight has for long shifted to developing markets in Asia, the Middle East and even the United States, where drivers hitting the road in record numbers are fuelling a resurgence in demand growth. Oil traders are accustomed to seeing the EU as a market with barely any potential to use more motor fuel.
“GDP in the UK and Europe is not energy intensive, and indeed oil demand has been in decline (more or less) since 2007,” Jefferies analysts wrote in a note.
Jefferies estimates that the impact on oil demand from changes to GDP in emerging markets is some five times what it is in Europe – “a far greater risk factor.”
The International Monetary Fund warned that Britain’s vote could set back its growth by 1.4 to 5.6 percent by 2019, and said it could also lower the growth forecast for Germany, the bloc’s largest economy.
Typically during economic crises, fears over a drop in consumption stoke oil price declines. But Europe’s withered oil demand growth due to energy efficiency and a shift away from heavy industry has cut its importance to the world’s demand growth.
Because most European economies are no longer industrially focused, even the slip into recession that some economists warned could hit Britain has failed to create significant oil demand loss fear on the global level.
According to the International Energy Agency, demand growth in Europe accounted for 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of the year, dwarfed by the 956,000 bpd growth in Asia’s developing countries.
Risk consultancy Eurasia Group said that Europe’s 13.7 million bpd of total demand is only about 14 percent of the global total. It added that every 1 percent change in GDP would knock roughly 70,000 bpd off oil demand growth, a small figure compared with the group’s demand growth forecast of 1.5 million bpd in 2016 and 1.1 million bpd in 2017.
RESTOCK FIZZLES
Amid fading demand, pressure on refiner profits forced the closure of more than 2 million bpd in European refining capacity over the last decade.
This has limited the continent’s importance in producing the diesel, gasoline and jet fuel that flow through global markets.
In France, strikes in May closed nearly half its refineries, as well as its main ports, forcing it to tap strategic crude and fuel stocks to keep running. The shock boosted diesel profits, and led to hopes that a rush to restock would further support refining. When similar strikes hit the country six years ago, global oil prices spiked as it scrambled to restock.
Instead, French refiner demand has been subdued as they slowly unloaded the roughly 19 million barrels of crude that was stranded on tankers during the strikes, and strategic stock agencies also gave companies three months to return what they took during the industrial action.
The impact on diesel was blunted as well by the fact that refinery hubs have shifted out of Europe since the last strikes.
Two French refineries have closed since 2012, while the Middle East has developed into a refining mega center with massive, diesel-heavy units helping to pump a growing excess in European storage tanks.
This has kept prices across crude and refined oil products from spiking, as it did following the last widespread French strikes in 2012.
“The Middle East was not supplying as much distillates as they are now, and Russia is exporting more distillates,” said KBC principal consultant Ehsan Ul-Haq of the changed market.
“A few years ago…the impact was much bigger,” Ul-Haq said of the strikes, adding that now, “producers have more than enough diesel.”
34 Comments on "Even in crisis, EU not a lead actor in world oil"
Bystander on Fri, 1st Jul 2016 3:27 pm
According to Reuters you “lead” if you burn a lot of oil.
joe on Fri, 1st Jul 2016 5:00 pm
Europe is becoming the global sick man. Millions unemployed in ‘southern’ europe keeping the currency weak for Germany. Britains membership of the EU kept the currency balanced, whats going to happen is that further falls in value of the Euro is bound to spin off countries whoes people dont have a hope of getting a job in ‘northern’ europe. US interests are best served now by pushing for an organised break up of the EU, the real threat is how to undo Europe and settle immigration issues while attaching enough weak countries to Germany to prevent inflation of the newEuro or newDeutchmark whatever they call it. The insane idea of a new Rome with half a billion muslims and Europeans living together in harmony was never going to happen. Such an empire would probobly try to favour Russia anyway. But how to manage the inevitable breakup of Europe without tripping half a dozen conflict zones from Ireland to the Balkans is going to define this half of this century as it did the last.
kanon on Fri, 1st Jul 2016 10:22 pm
The “global sick man” is clearly leading in efficiency and renewable energy, and its people lead better lives than nearly anywhere else in the world. I wish we could be so far behind.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Fri, 1st Jul 2016 10:42 pm
Joe, you’re a fucking retard. UK was not in the currency union, also known as the Euro Zone, and their membership in the European Union had no impact on the value of the Euro currency. Everything you say is total fucking uninformed retarded bullshit which is typical for fat lazy Americans. Fucking dumb ass.
Italian Holiday Maker on Fri, 1st Jul 2016 11:59 pm
Joe the Brit, Europe’s unemployment rate sank to 10.8%, this week, the lowest since 2012.
Not sure why you bring up “new Rome” and half a billion Muslims… I am currently in Rome and pleasantly surprised to see that this city is almost completely white, in contrast to London, that is still majority European thanks to the EU and the eastern Europeans it brought in. If they were to leave the Brits would be left alone with its muslims, good luck with that.
John Cleese on the state of London today…. where are all the English?
https://youtu.be/J80AGEvRQOg
The third world immigration to Britain was fully the work of New Labour under the horrible Tony Blair, not the EU.
Regarding Brexit, it is becoming clearer by the day that gradually Bregret is setting in about it. Boris Bigmouth withdrew himself from the Con leadership contest, what a fake! Now Europe is facing the terrible possibility that we won’t get rid of them after all.
I am urging therefore Joe the Brit to do everything he can that Brexit will continue as planned and immideately fiile for article 50 to set the proces in motion. Because nobody in the UK all of a sudden is in a hurry now that they begin to see what the consequences are going to be: losing Scotland, losing Gibraltar, losing the financial industry of the city of London to Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam.
Poor England, Losing from Iceland was a bad omen.
joe on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 3:23 am
Its not my fault you guys didnt understand the relationship of the euro to the pound. The euro is an extension of Germany. Thats it. Germany prospers while most of the other nations suck the teats of the ECB. The pound outside of EU rules becomes an industrial competitor to germany. A weak Euro will have to become ECB policy. If everything i said was retarded and uninformed why was i right about the risk of brexit last year when they ignored the Greek referndum to leave the euro? I dont claim to be a prophet unlike you.
And yes, euro liberals do think that there is nothing to fear from letting islam run rampant over europe. But dont look at me and shout as you liberals love to do. There is a reason why most islamic countries are economic basket cases, its because their moralities dont recognise fundamental rights and responsibilities that each person owes to each other.
The truth is that the UK didnt want to place its own law, under EU law. The EU is yet to be tested morally. So far it has allied with nato and neo-nazi Ukrainians and bombed libya and stood by while iraq and syria have been dismantled by neoconservatives and neoliberals. I think the EU is the next soviet union.
Bystander on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 6:25 am
Joe, as usual you are missing the point majestically. The Euro was never a German idea nor desire. The euro was the price French president Mitterrand made the Germans pay as a compensation for German unification after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. In majority the German population wanted to keep their D-Mark.
And forget this pathetic idea of a revival of the GBP. Your empireal dominance was over in 1871, the date of German unification, hands down the most traumatic British experience, which made you attack Germany twice, the first time by organizing an anti-German coalition with France and Russia, the second time as a proxy for, in Chamberlain’s words: Americans and ‘world jews’.
After America, Britain is the second worst disaster in the history of the European race, for the simple readon that they were unable to generate a strong enough elite to withstand the youknowwhos.
Furthermore, I am, god knows not a Euro liberal. You make it sound as if Anglos are champion defenders against third world migration in comparrisson to Euro’s, where in reality the opposite is the case.
The only reason why Muslims are behind is because of IQ/race. Nothing to do with morality, but Anglos love to see everythink from a non-existing moral angle (good guys/bad guys idiocy).
And I am sorry, but nobody forced the British to become EEC member, nor will anybody stop them from leaving. After all, the EU is not the USSR, that loyal British ally in WW2.
And please, your views about the Ukraine leave out the leading role the US played in the drama. Yes, Germany played a role too, but only as a servant of US geopolitical interest, which means weakening Russia.
Davy on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 7:27 am
“Kyle Bass Shares The “Stunning” Thing A Central Banker Once Told Him”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-01/kyle-bass-shares-stunning-thing-central-banker-once-told-him
“Bass said the country’s $3 trillion corporate bond market is “freezing up” amid rising defaults and canceled debt sales. “We’re starting to see the beginning of the Chinese machine literally break down.”
“He expects bank losses of $3 trillion to trigger a bailout, with the central bank slashing reserve requirements, cutting the deposit rate to zero and expanding its balance sheet – all of which will weigh on the yuan, and lead to a dramatic devaluation.”
“It’s too late.” The credit excesses had already been built. And in China, the credit excesses are already built. They’ve got, we can go into numbers, but they have asset-liability mismatches in their system, in the wealth management products, that are more than 10% of their system. And our asset-liability mismatches were two and a half percent of our system, and you know what they did. So their excesses are already, they’re already so far ahead of the world’s excesses in prior crises that we’re facing the largest macro imbalance in world history. And to this day, I can’t figure out why people don’t see it for what it is.”
“You watch the narrative unfold in the media, and then the trial balloons get floated. But you’re right, they have to go to helicopter money, they’re really not going to have a choice. And it seems to me that they are going to have to try to ban cash. Because, as you say, the U.S. savings rate has tripled since 2007, and that’s literally the last thing they want or need. So is there any way out for these guys? Because that’s the thesis that I keep checking. I can’t see a way out, absent cold fusion.”
“because when I look around the world today, everyone’s in the same boat. So we’re all trying…we’re attempting through our treasury and our Fed to get the rest of the world to not devalue against us, while we quietly attempt to devalue ourselves against them, and it’s all this…it is the race to the bottom, it is the beggar thy neighbor policies that we all talk about. And I believe that there is no way out.”
Davy on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 7:30 am
“The only reason why Muslims are behind is because of IQ/race” Bystander is ignorant of history obviously.
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 8:08 am
Bystander “In majority the German population wanted to keep their D-Mark.”
In my lifetime what the population wanted has never been much of a concern to the people in power anywhere in the world, basically, with a few exceptions. This is not about being German or French, it is about being rich or poor. Since before I was born the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.
Bystander on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 10:23 am
““The only reason why Muslims are behind is because of IQ/race” Bystander is ignorant of history obviously.”
You don’t care to elaborate, I assume? Probably hinting at some mythical Islamic golden age, I presume?
Even if that golden age existed, cultures can degenerate over the centuries. Whatever history, the reality TODAY is this:
https://robertlindsay.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/800px-iq_by_country-by-current-resident-majority.png
And from this map you can perfectly understand why Arabia and Africa are stagnating and why territoriies like Japan, Korea and China are booming.
It is outright cruel to ignore these facts. These facts are nobodies fault, they are just facts.
Africa and Arabia were far better off as European colonies, who provided infrastructure, school system, agriculture and what not.
Davy on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 10:52 am
Bystander, what are you so proud of with high IQ and superior development? You are proud of something that is destroying the world and humanity. It is the people you feel are superior that are the ones destroying a once beautiful world. If there is anything we can do now in the rich white world and that is to be humble for the horrible things our modernism has created.
Bystander on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 1:50 pm
Destruction (death) is inherent to life, blossoming its purpose. I am convinced that fossil fuel based industrial society will die, about vanishing of life from planet earth, not so much.
There are so many worlds yet to discover.
Davy on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 2:55 pm
Yes, bystander, but when death involves all the worst of human nature their is no blossoming but only shame. If you destroy something of beauty because of negligence and callousness there is no honor or joy.
tita on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 3:22 pm
“Europe’s 13.7 million bpd of total demand is only about 14 percent of the global total”
First, it is not exactly a very low consumption figure. And second, EU is something big in international trade. A crisis in EU doesn’t only affect the oil consumption of the euro zone, but also the economies that trade with it. The first affected would be China.
The only reason markets (along with oil) went back up is because the perspective of the brexit is looming away. Boris Johnson, who was the craftsman behind the brexit campain don’t want to succeed to Cameron. Britain is in a political crisis, and no candidate would dare to push the brexit card to be elected.
This reuters article is just bullshit. Markets went back to pre-brexit vote because there won’t be any change in EU.
John on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 4:18 pm
In terms of Muslim retards…u have to pin it on the religious Chiefs…Northern Ireland went through their last same religious problems 30 years ago…both sides saying the were evil and had opposite had horns on their heads…..best way to cut the snakes head is at the top of the religion….
onlooker on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 5:09 pm
Juan said it perfectly. Many policies economic and geopolitical are being done without popular consent by many governments and that is not accounting for actions and policies taken by undemocratic institutions
Apneaman on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 5:10 pm
Bystander, that you don’t know or want to believe there was a historical period/golden age of Islamic art, culture, architecture, and science is indicative of your ignorance. Not exactly a fucking secret. You do not get the renaissance, scientific revolution and modern world without their preservation of ancient knowledge and their many advances and discoveries. Like most ignorant westerners, especially mericans, you simply repeat memes you hear from other ignorant fools. I’ve enlightened more than my share, but only because I know they can’t fucking stand it knowing their beloved and cherished technology and power is standing on the shoulders of Islamic scholars. So if y’all white boys love that tech then don’t forget to thank those nice medieval Islamic scholars in your prayers for algebra, alchemy (precursor to chemistry), alcohol, algorithms and many many more. If not for them most of us would not be here. Of course if you just can’t help hating them, then why not flip it around blame all the modern predicaments on them? I often hear folks blaming science for the predicaments the humans are in so why not go back to where it all started? Think of all the science and invention from non white people. China, India, Sumerians, Egyptians Islamic, etc….if it wasn’t for those over curious bastards humans would not be here and my life and future prospects would be awesome. Yeah, it’s all their fault.
You are correct that cultures denigrate. That should be obvious by all the dead ones that came before us. With empires, most of their citizens think they are their gods gift to humanity and superior to everyone past and present – their is nothing unique about Americans in that regard. They also all tend to make the same core mistakes and so are the current crop of humans except with much worse unavoidable consequences approaching. Unprecedented consequences.
John on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 5:59 pm
While u talk sense Apenaman, if u ever get captured and can’t repeat from the Koran….sorry to say….u are dead…
Honest….we all need to kill the religious head of the various religions cos all they do is talk death and they get results
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 6:13 pm
Bystander, My country, Uruguay, has a very high average IQ according to your map, but I think that most of the people there are a bunch of fools. IMO, IQ tests are culturally biased. I see a high correlation between the high IQ countries in that map and the countries that IMO have the highest percentages of pricks and thieves. IQ tests are highly overrated, and I am saying that inspite of the fact that I’ve been tested a few times myself and found to have an extremely high IQ.
makati1 on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 6:15 pm
John, you prefer creating martyrs then?
Definition of martyr: a person who is killed or who suffers greatly for a religion, cause, etc.
How did that work out for Pontius Pilate and the Romans? LOL
makati1 on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 6:25 pm
JuanP, I agree. One glance at the map and you know who made it. IQ is NOT a test of intelligence. It is a test rigged by the testers to prove their prejudices. “IQ” is often a result of the education and social systems, not ability.
According to the “IQ” tests I took long ago, I’m well above the “average” yet I do not consider myself overly intelligent. I’ve done some pretty stupid things in my life that a supposedly intelligent person should have known better. LOL
John on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 6:35 pm
U need to address religion…:it is often 30 years behind people but people are unfortunately scared 30 years behind religion…:I think Makati1 u know what I’m saying
John on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 6:39 pm
Makiti1….was one of ur stupid things over Rhodes years taking a life???
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 6:41 pm
Mak, I know that I have made more mistakes and done many more stupid things in my life than most people inspite of my supposedly very high IQ. I don’t want to go into it, so you’ll have to take my word for it. I think my private elitist Western education accounts for my high scores in those tests, not my intelligence.
John on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 6:44 pm
Sorry…Auto spelling….Rhodes should have been “those years taking a life” …
makati1 on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 7:10 pm
John, nope. Nothing so serious. Just mistakes that, had I thought about it more beforehand, I probably would not have made them. “Superior intelligence” is not a sign of always making correct decisions in your life.
Taking a life, except in self-protection or protecting others who are unable to defend themselves, is always wrong. War is wrong. If the leaders, who start wars, had to be the ones to actually fight each other and die, there would never be a war. I do believe that we all should have the right to terminate our own life when we choose to, but not that of others.
John on Sat, 2nd Jul 2016 11:40 pm
Makati, Couldn’t agree more about the leaders, just had 100 yr remberence for battle of the Somme in ww1…almost 20,000 dead in the first day…hard to contemplate….
Bystander on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 9:39 am
Apey,
An Islamic scholar is an oxymoron. In Islamic culture there is nothing but the Koran. This whole idea of an Islamic Golden Age is a myth:
http://indiafacts.org/the-myth-of-islamic-science/
The knowledge and philosophy of antiquity was preserved by Christian monasteries and were picked up by the Renaissance, no need for Islamic ‘scolars’ whatsoever.
Bystander on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 9:13 am
Apey,
An Islamic scholar is an oxymoron. In Islamic culture there is nothing but the Koran. This whole idea of an Islamic Golden Age is a myth:
http://indiafacts.org/the-myth-of-islamic-science/
The knowledge and philosophy of antiquity was preserved by Christian monasteries and were picked up by the Renaissance, no need for non-existing Islamic ‘scolars’ whatsoever.
Bystander on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 9:24 am
“Bystander, My country, Uruguay, has a very high average IQ according to your map, but I think that most of the people there are a bunch of fools. IMO, IQ tests are culturally biased. I see a high correlation between the high IQ countries in that map and the countries that IMO have the highest percentages of pricks and thieves.”
Juan, IQ is not about morals, you can have smart thieves, just go to Italy.lol
Uruguay is basically “reserve Europe”, so no surprises here. IQ culturally biased? BS, Korea, Japan and China score as high or higher than Europeans. IQ is a perfect indicator whether a nation can sustain an industrial society or not. IQ90 is about the threshold, like Turkey.
But natural born racial commies like North-Americans don’t want to hear about IQ, because it destroys their One World fantasies as injected into their brains by their own elite via the media.
Bystander on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 9:35 am
“Bystander, what are you so proud of with high IQ and superior development? You are proud of something that is destroying the world and humanity. It is the people you feel are superior that are the ones destroying a once beautiful world.”
Davy, only the West has people worrying about the peak oil problem cluster.
We inadvertently created the problem, we will come up with a solution. Don’t be so self-defeatist.
Bystander on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 9:39 am
“You do not get the renaissance, scientific revolution and modern world without their preservation of ancient knowledge and their many advances and discoveries. Like most ignorant westerners, especially mericans, ”
More bs from apey. The main link between antiquity and Renaissance were Christian monasteries. No need for Koran thumpers whatsoever.
Davy on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 10:15 am
Bystander, sounds like the same attitude that got us in this mess. You better get with it if you are going to have a solution.