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Page added on October 13, 2016
Energy demand to peak by 2030 amid ‘Grand Transition’
Global per capita energy demand will peak before 2030, thanks to technological innovation, government policies and lower growth expectations, according to a newly released report by the World Energy Council.
The “Grand Transition” report sets three scenarios for the energy sector to 2060, with very different realities across regions. It highlighted there will be a shift in final energy consumption with demand for electricity doubling by 2060, Kallanish Energy reports.
Solar and wind power generation are forecast to see the largest increase from current 4% global share to a range between 20-39% by 2060.
Fossil fuel consumption could drop to 50% of the primary energy mix in one of the scenarios forecast by the council, with very distinct futures for coal, oil and natural gas. However, oil will continue to play a huge role in the transportation sector representing over 60% of the mix in all three scenarios to 2060.
Gas use will continue to increase at a steady rate, the report showed. “By 2060, all scenarios point to an increase in demand for gas, as well as a possible peak demand for oil within the 2035-2045 timeframe,” said Nuri Demirdoven, managing director at Accenture Strategy and a report collaborator.
World Energy Council executive Ged Davis said it’s clear the world is undergoing a Grand Transition, creating a fundamentally new world for the energy industry.
“Historically people have talked about Peak Oil, but now disruptive trends are leading energy experts to consider the implications of Peak Demand,” he noted.
16 Comments on "Energy demand to peak by 2030 amid ‘Grand Transition’"
Davy on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 7:26 am
When reading this article you must ask yourself are these people goal seeking? They are presenting an argument with a constant and that is the economy and a growth based civilization. If you are a status quo’er then you consider growth and progress to be a constant. You have been habituated to this and there is no reason to believe the global economy will not stop growing and progressing. There is the understanding of cycles but that cyclical progression is positive. We have always overcome problems like war and hard times and we will continue is their thinking.
This thinking must be called into question today with the realization of just how profoundly difficult many of these problems are. In fact the reality is these problems are likely predicaments. We are in a series of catch 22 traps. Worse yet they are converging catch 22 traps. These converging traps are building into a great turning of an earth epoch and human civilization. Only for the status quo’ers this turning is the wrong direction. This is a process involving time so it is easy to get lost in alternatives to reality.
Personally I disregard any reports that forecast as this one does. It is intellectual laziness and intellectual denial to present a report like this. In today’s world where we have computers we can get extremely good at fooling ourselves with forecasts. What we have a hard time with is facing reality. We disregard the inconvenient and the worst cases but we always embrace the best cases. A worst case may be presented but it is really just a lessor of a best cases.
The economy is not going to support another China size growth and that is what this forecasts calls for. Innovation, substitution, and the progress of knowledge is not going to allow us to breach limits. Population is near its limit and the economy is the consumption side of population. Both are together and separate at limits. These limits are of both complexity and physical. The best we can do is keep forecasts under 5 years and be very conservative beyond that period. We should include collapse as the small print on all projections. The possibilities of collapse should be part of every projection. Never before has man had collapse as part of every possible projection. Post WWII we had the possibility of MAD of NUK war. There was always the possibility of an earth killing asteroid. Now it is a multidimensional collapse scenario across a broad spectrum of possibilities known and unknown.
shortonoil on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 7:30 am
“Global per capita energy demand will peak before 2030, thanks to technological innovation, government policies and lower growth expectations, according to a newly released report by the World Energy Council.”
75% of American households now have less than a $1000 in savings, 34% have zero. World debt is now $175 trillion, or 240% of its GDP. Since 2005 world C+C production has grown by 0.043% per year, or 8% of its historical level. As inventories have ballooned demand has been even less. It looks like the World Energy Council had better take another look at their numbers.
Plantagenet on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 8:01 am
How much oil does an unemployed person really need? If we restrict oil use to productive people only, world oil supplies will last a bit longer
marmico on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 8:12 am
Since 2005 world C+C production has grown by 0.043% per year, or 8% of its historical level.
More bullshit from Bunsen Burner Bozo Bedford. 2015 C+C production was 8.4% higher than 2005.
http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec11_5.pdf
forbin on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 8:43 am
” as well as a possible peak demand for oil within the 2035-2045 ”
well a lack of supply normally kills demand ……
Forbin
Rockman on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 11:28 am
Global energy demand/consumption, despite a very slight rise the last 10 years, has been flat for decades. Essential been plateaued for a long time so calling for a peak in 14 years really isn’t saying much.
John on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 11:31 am
Dudes,
2015 production was 80.03 Mb/d.
2005 production was 73.87 Mb/d.
Hey Google, “what is the 10th root of 1.0958?”
A: 1.00919
(1.00919 – 1) * 100 = 0.919% per year.
You’re both wrong, but shortonoil is much closer.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 12:57 pm
Seeing as how short claims to have a model that predicts how much oil will be consumed by the oil production industry in the future and has forecast the point at which it will consume more energy than it produces I’d like to see shiort tell us how much oil is produced by the oil industry today and then give references that support the model with a real measure.
As well short states that increasing costs of production due to diminishing EROI will correspond with lower prices in the market, not due to supply and demand but the laws of physics.
I see a lot of trolling from short but no serious defence of his thesis. A guy that appears to not understand the difference in meaning between the words cost, price and value claims to have constructed a thermodynamic model of the global economy. No references or formulas provided. Lol what a joke.
Futilitist was at one time the main shill for the eTP model but now it appears SRS has picked up the torch. I do understand EROEI and EROI but what is thermodynamic EROEI? Sounds like someone’s trying to obsfucate and just likes using big science words.
Show me the references and equation for the thermodynamic model of the global economy. Tell me how much crude plus condensate the crude plus condensate production industry is using today. You claim to know the future. Do you know the present?
marmico on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 1:22 pm
The actual annual growth rate is 0.8% which is an order of magnitude times ~2 greater than 0.04%. Sheesh, it is 8.4% cumulative. What would you expect from Bunsen Burner Bozo Bedford? Apparently, bullshit gravitas with three decimal points.
——————
PODMAN is full of shit, as well.
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/primary-energy.html
Go Speed Racer on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 1:33 pm
Grand transition to what? Burning garbage in a rusty old woodstove?
penury on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 2:37 pm
I don’t know about future use, I will wait until after the Prez has his War conference on Fri. Maybe by Mon we will be at war.
rockman on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 4:01 pm
Truth – “As well short states that increasing costs of production due to diminishing EROI will correspond with lower prices in the market”. Curious: did you happen to catch my post explaining why the EROEI of wells being drilled today has increased significantly (perhaps as much as 2X) compared to wells drilled just 3 years ago. Especially true for the shale wells being drilled now. Which also explains why the initial production rate of newer wells has increased: only drilling the better remaining prospects.
The math is as simple as it is undeniable: same amount of energy used + more oil produced = higher EROEI. IOW companies don’t make drilling decision based on bbls produced but on $’s generated. Thus if the oil price is cut in half the amount of recoverable oil has to increase in order to generate a similar rate of return.
Since obviously you’ve spent much more time studying the model then me: does it take into the significant increase in EROEI we’ve experienced the last two years?
Laci on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 4:27 pm
If energy demand will peak by 2030, it most likely means that we will be in a deep economic recession with no end in sight. World’s population is increasing by about 1% per year, and it is increasingly demanding better conditions. Many people are yet to have electricity, indoor plumbing and other basic necessities which tend to take up much energy to build and use.
As for efficiency? We can expect about 1% gain per year, which covers population growth, not more. So if energy per capita will peak then so will global GDP/capita.
Apneaman on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 4:33 pm
Burning all that oil is causing more demand for oil in the form of ever more disaster rescues and a never ending cycle of disaster repairs and rebuilding (partial) infrastructure. Self reinforcing cancer.
Hurricane Matthew’s Death Toll Climbs to 31 as Floodwaters Rise
Flooding has yet to hit some parts of North Carolina, where the storm has claimed at least 20 lives
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-matthews-death-toll-climbs-to-30-as-floodwaters-rise-1476283588
Hurricane Matthew damage estimate upped to $10B as flooding surges
“…however, the vast majority of homeowners in the state are uninsured for flood damage. For those reasons, insurers are likely to bear just half of all total expenses incurred through cleanup efforts.”
http://www.ibamag.com/us/news/breaking-news/hurricane-matthew-damage-estimate-upped-to-10b-as-flooding-surges-39043.aspx
This is just the insured losses and the total dollar tally takes months to years to come in and grows as time goes by.
We now return you to your all important barrel counting.
Dredd on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 6:05 pm
“All that foreign oil controlling American soil
Look around you, it’s just bound to make you embarrassed
Sheiks walkin’ around like kings
Wearing fancy jewels and nose rings
Deciding America’s future from Amsterdam and to Paris
And there’s a slow, slow train comin’ up around the bend”
Slow train explained (Congratulations To Bob Dylan).
Kenz300 on Fri, 14th Oct 2016 2:34 pm
Cheap Solar Power in Texas May Depress Peak Electricity Prices
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/10/cheap-solar-power-in-texas-may-depress-peak-electricity-prices.html
Solar Cost Hits World’s New Low, Half the Price of Coal
http://www.ecowatch.com/solar-price-chile-1982242311.html