Peak Oil is You
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Page added on January 31, 2017
End of the “Oilocene”: The Demise of the Global Oil Industry and of the Global Economic System as we know it.
In 1981 I was sitting on an eroded barren hillside in India, where less than 100 years previously there had been dense forest with tigers. It was now effectively a desert and I was watching villagers scavenging for twigs for fuelwood and pondering their future, thinking about rapidly increasing human population and equally rapid degradation of the global environment. I had recently devoured a copy of The Limits to Growth (LTG) published in 1972, and here it was playing out in front of me. Their Business as Usual (BAU) scenario showed that global economic growth would be over between 2010 -2020; and today 45 years later, that prediction is inexorably becoming true. Since 2008 any semblance of growth has been fuelled by astronomically greater quantities of debt; and all other indicators of overshoot are flashing red.
One of the main factors limiting growth was regarded by the authors of LTG as energy; specifically oil. By mid 1970’s surprisingly, enough was known about accessible oil reserves that not a huge amount has since been added to what is known as reserves of conventional oil. Conventional oil is (or was) the high quality, high net energy, low water content, easy to get stuff. Its multi-decade increasing rate in production came to an end around 2005 (as predicted many years earlier by Campbell and Laherre in 1998). The rate of production peaked in 2011 and has since been in decline (IEA 2016).
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is the pre-eminent global forecaster of oil production and demand. Recently it admitted that its oil production forecasts were based on economic projections rather than geology or cost; ie on the assumption that supply will always meet projected demand.
In its latest annual forecast however (New Policies Scenario 2016) the IEA has also admitted for the first time a future in which total global “all liquids” oil production could start to fall within the next few years.
As Kjell Aklett of Upsala University Global Energy Research Group comments (06-12-16), “In figure 3.16 the IEA shows for the first time what will happen if its unrealistic wishful thinking does not become reality during the next 10 years. Peak Oil will occur even if oil from fracked tight sources, oil sands, and other (unconventional) sources are included”.
In fact – this IEA image clearly shows that the total global rate of production of “all hydrocarbon liquids” could start falling anytime from now on; and this should in itself raise a huge red flag for the Irish Government.
Furthermore, it raises a number of vital questions which are the core subject of this post.
Reserves of conventional “easy” oil have mostly been used up. How likely is it that remaining reserves will be produced at the rate projected? Rapidly diminishing reserves of conventional oil are now increasingly being supplemented by the difficult stuff that Kjell Aklett mentions; including conventional from deep water, polar and other inaccessible regions, very heavy bituminous and high sulphur oil; natural gas liquids and other xtl’s, plus other “unconventional oil” including tar sands and shale oil.
How much will it cost to produce all these various types? How much energy will be required, and crucially how much energy will be left over for use by the economy?
The global industrial economy runs on oil.
Oil is the vital and crucial link in virtually every production chain in the global industrial world economy partly because it supplies over 96% of global transport energy – with no significant non-oil dependent alternative in sight.
Our industrial food production system uses over 10 calories of oil energy to plough, plant, fertilise, harvest, transport, refine, package, store/refrigerate, and deliver 1 calorie of food to the consumer; and imagine trying to build infrastructure; roads, schools, hospitals, industrial facilities, cities, railways, airports without oil, let alone maintain them.
Surprisingly perhaps, oil is also crucial to production of all other forms of energy including renewables. We cannot mine and distribute coal or even drill for gas and install pipelines and gas distribution networks without lots of oil; and you certainly cannot make a nuclear power station or build a hydroelectric dam without oil. But even solar panels, wind and biomass energy are also totally dependent on oil to extract and produce the raw materials; oil is directly or indirectly used in their manufacture (steel, glass, copper, fibreglass/GRP, concrete) and finally to distribute the product to the end user, and install and maintain it.
So it’s not surprising that excluding hydro and nuclear (which mostly require phenomenal amounts of oil to implement), renewables still only constitute about 3% of world energy (BP Energy Outlook 2016). This figure speaks entirely for itself. I am a renewable energy consultant and promoter, but I am also a realist; in practice the world runs on oil.
The economy, Global GDP and oil are therefore mutually dependent and have enjoyed a tightly linked dance over the decades as shown in the following images. Note the connection between oil, total energy, oil price and GDP (clues for later).
Click on image to enlarge
Rising cost of oil production
Since 2005 when the rate of production of conventional oil slowed and peaked, production costs have been rising more rapidly. By 2013, oil industry costs were approaching the level of the global oil price which was more than $100/barrel at that time; and industry insiders were saying that the oil industry was finding it difficult to break even.
Click on image to enlarge
A good example of the time was the following article which is worth quoting in full in the light of the price of oil at the time (~$100/bbl), and the average 2016 sustained low oil price of ~$50/bbl.
Oil and gas company debt soars to danger levels to cover shortfall in cash By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Telegraph. 11 Aug 2014
“The world’s leading oil and gas companies are taking on debt and selling assets on an unprecedented scale to cover a shortfall in cash, calling into question the long-term viability of large parts of the industry. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said a review of 127 companies across the globe found that they had increased net debt by $106bn in the year to March, in order to cover the surging costs of machinery and exploration, while still paying generous dividends at the same time. They also sold off a net $73bn of assets.
The EIA said revenues from oil and gas sales have reached a plateau since 2011, stagnating at $568bn over the last year as oil hovers near $100 a barrel. Yet costs have continued to rise relentlessly. Companies have exhausted the low-hanging fruit and are being forced to explore fields in ever more difficult regions.
The EIA said the shortfall between cash earnings from operations and expenditure — mostly CAPEX and dividends — has widened from $18bn in 2010 to $110bn during the past three years. Companies appear to have been borrowing heavily both to keep dividends steady and to buy back their own shares, spending an average of $39bn on repurchases since 2011”.
In another article (my highlights) he wrote
“The major companies are struggling to find viable reserves, forcing them to take on ever more leverage to explore in marginal basins, often gambling that much higher prices in the future will come to the rescue. Global output of conventional oil peaked in 2005 despite huge investment. The cumulative blitz on exploration and production over the past six years has been $5.4 trillion, yet little has come of it. Not a single large project has come on stream at a break-even cost below $80 a barrel for almost three years.
Steven Kopits from Douglas-Westwood said the productivity of new capital spending has fallen by a factor of five since 2000. “The vast majority of public oil and gas companies require oil prices of over $100 to achieve positive free cash flow under current capex and dividend programmes. Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120,” he said”.
The following images give a good idea of the trend and breakdown in costs of oil production. Getting it out of the ground is just for starters. The images show just how expensive it is becoming to produce – and how far from breakeven the current oil price is.
Click on image to enlarge
It is important to note that the “breakeven cost” is much less than the oil price required to sustain the industry into the future (business as usual).
The following images show that the many different types of oil have (obviously) vastly different production costs. Note the relatively small proportion of conventional reserves (much of it already used), and the substantially higher production cost of all other types of oil. Note also the apt title and date of the Deutsche Bank analysis – production costs have risen substantially since then.
The global oil industry is in deep trouble
You do not need to be an economist to see that the average 2016 price of oil ~ $50/bbl was substantially lower than just the breakeven price of all but a small proportion of global oil reserves. Even before the oil price collapse of 2014-5, the global oil industry was in deep trouble. Debts are rising quickly, and balance sheets are increasingly RED. Earlier this year 2016, Deloitte warned that 35% of oil majors were in danger of bankruptcy, with another 30% to follow in 2017.
Click on image to enlarge
In addition to the oil majors, shrinking oil revenues in oil-producing countries are playing havoc with national economies. Virtually every oil producing country in the world requires a much higher oil price to balance its budget – some of them vastly so (eg Venezuela). Their economies have been designed around oil, which for many of them is their largest source of income. Even Saudi Arabia, the biggest global oil producer with the biggest conventional oil reserves is quickly using up its sovereign wealth fund.
It appears that not a single significant oil-producing country is balancing its budget. Their debts and deficits grow bigger by the day. Everyone is praying for higher oil prices. Who are they kidding? The average BAU oil price going forward for business as usual for the whole global oil industry probably needs to be well over $100/bbl; and the world economy is on its knees even at the present low oil price. Why is this? The indicators all spell huge trouble ahead. Could there be another fundamental oil/energy/financial mechanism operating here?
The Root Cause
The cause is not surprising. All the various new types of oil and a good deal of the conventional stuff that remains require far more energy to produce.
In 2015, The Hills Group (US Oil Engineers) published “Depletion – A Determination of the Worlds Petroleum Reserve”. It is meticulously researched and re-worked with trends double checked against published data. It follows on from the Hills Group 2013 work that accurately predicted the approaching oil price collapse after 2014 (which no-one else did) and calculated that the average oil price of 2016 would be ~$50/bbl. They claim theirs is the most accurate oil price indicator ever produced, with >96% accuracy with published past data. The Hills Group work has somewhat clarified my understanding of the core issues and I will try to summarise two crucial points as follows.
Oil can only be useful as an energy source if the energy contained in the product (ie transport fuel) is greater than the energy required to extract, refine and deliver the fuel to the end user.
If you electrolyse water, the hydrogen gas produced (when mixed with air and ignited), will explode with a bang (be careful doing this at home!). The hydrogen contained in the world’s water is an enormous potential energy source and contains infinitely more energy (as hydrogen) than humans could ever need. The problem is that it takes far more energy to produce a given amount of hydrogen from water than is available by combusting it. Oil is rapidly going the same way. Only a small proportion of what remains of conventional oil resources can provide an energy surplus for use as a fuel. All the other types of oil require more energy to produce and deliver as fuel to the end user (taking into account the whole oil production chain), than is contained in the fuel itself.
What people do not realise is that it takes oil to extract, refine, produce and deliver oil to the end user. The Hills Group calculates that in 2012, the average energy required by the oil production chain had risen so much that it was then equal to the energy contained in the oil delivered to the economy. In other words “In 2012 the oil industry production chain in total used 50% of all the energy contained in the oil delivered to the consumer”. This is trending rapidly to reach 100% early in the next decade.
At this point – no matter how much oil is left (a lot) and in whatever form (many), oil will be of no use as an energy source for transport fuels, since it will on average require more energy to extract, refine and deliver to the end-user, than the oil itself contains.
Because oil reserves are of decreasing quality and oil is getting more difficult and expensive to produce and transform into transport fuels; the amount of energy required by the whole oil production chain (the global oil industry) is rapidly increasing; leaving less and less left over for the rest of the economy.
In this context and relative to the IEA graph shown earlier, there is a big difference between annual gross oil production, and the amount of energy left in the product available for work as fuel. Whilst total global oil (all liquids) production currently appears to be still growing slowly, the energy required by the global oil industry is growing faster, and the net energy available for work by the end user is decreasing rapidly. This is illustrated by the following figure (Louis Arnoux 2016).
The price of oil cannot exceed the value of the economic activity generated from the amount of energy available to end-users per barrel.
The rapid decline in oil-energy available to the economy is one of the key reasons for the equally rapid rise in global debt.
The global industrial world economy depends on oil as its prime energy source. Increasing growth of the world economy during the oil age has been exactly matched by oil production and use, but as Louis’ image shows, over the last forty years the amount of net energy delivered by the oil industry to the economy has been decreasing.
As a result, the economic value of a barrel of oil is falling fast. “In 1975 one dollar could have bought, on average, 42,348 BTU; by 2010 a dollar would only have bought 6,946 BTU” (The Hills Group 2015).
This has caused a parallel reduction in real economic activity. I say “real” because today the financial world accounts for about 40% of global GDP, and I would like to remind economists and bankers that you cannot eat 0000’s on a computer screen, or use them to put food on the table, heat your house, or make something useful. GDP as an indicator of the global economy is an illusion. If you deduct financial services and account for debt, the real world economy is contracting fast.
To compensate, and continue the fallacy of endless economic growth, we have simply borrowed and borrowed, and borrowed. Huge amounts of additional debt are now required to sustain the “Growth Illusion”.
In 2012 the decreasing ability of oil to power the economy intersected with the increasing cost of oil production at a point The Hills Group refers to as the maximum affordable consumer price (just over $100/bbl) and they calculated that the price of oil must fall soon afterwards. In 2014 much to everyone’s surprise (IEA, EIA, World Bank, Wall St Oil futures etc) the price of oil fell to where it is now. This is clearly illustrated by The Hills Group’s petroleum price curve of 2013 which correctly calculated that the 2016 average price of oil would be ~$50/bbl (Depletion – The Fate of the Oil Age 2013).
In their detailed 2015 study The Hills Group writes (Depletion – A determination of the world’s petroleum reserve 2015);
“To determine the affordability range it is first observed that the price of a unit of petroleum cannot exceed the value of the economic activity (generated by the net energy) it supplies to the end consumer. (Since 2012) more of the energy from petroleum was being committed to the production of petroleum than was delivered to the consumer. This precipitated the 2014 price decline that reduced prices by 50%. The energy delivered to the end consumer will continue to decline and the end consumer maximum affordability will decline with it.
Dr Louis Arnoux explains this as follows: “In 1900 the Global Industrial World received 61% of the gross energy in a barrel of oil. In 2016 this is down to 7%. The global industrial world is being forced to contract because it is being starved of net energy from oil” (Louis Arnoux 2016).
This is reflected in the slowing down of global economic growth and the huge increase in total global debt.
Without noticing it, in 2012 the world entered “Emergency Red Alert”
In the following image, Dr Arnoux has reworked Hills Group petroleum price curve showing the impending collapse of thermodynamically driven oil prices – and the end of the oil age as we know it. This analysis is more than amply reinforced by the dire financial straits of the global oil industry, and the parlous state of the global economy and financial system.
Oil is a finite resource which is subject to the same physical laws as many other commodities. The debate about peak oil has been clouded by the fact that oil consists of many different kinds of hydrocarbons; each of which has its own extraction profile. But conventional oil is the only category of oil that can be extracted with a whole production chain energy surplus. Production of this commodity (conventional oil) has undoubtedly peaked and is now declining. The amount of energy (and cost) required by the global oil industry to produce and deliver much of the remainder of conventional reserves and the many alternative categories of oil to the consumer, is rapidly increasing; and we are equally rapidly heading toward the day when we have used up those reserves of oil which will deliver an energy surplus (taking into account the whole production chain from extraction to delivery of the end product as fuel to the consumer).
The Global Oil Industry is one of the most advanced and efficient in the world and further efficiency gains will be minor compared to the scale of the problem, which is essentially one of oil depletion thermodynamics.
Humans are very good at propping up the unsustainable and this often results in a fast and unexpected collapse (eg Joseph Tainter: The collapse of complex societies). An example of this is the Seneca Curve/Cliff which appears to me to be an often-repeated defining trait of humanity. Our oil/financial system is a perfect illustration.
Debt is being used to extend the unsustainable and it looks as though we are headed for the “Mother of all Seneca Curves” which I have illustrated below:
Because oil is the primary energy resource upon which all other energy sources depend, it is almost certain that a contraction in oil production would be reflected in a parallel reduction in other energy systems; as illustrated rather dramatically in this image by Gail Tverberg (the timing is slightly premature – but probably not by much).
Energy and Money
Fundamental to all energy and economic systems is money. Debt is being used to prop up a contracting oil energy system, and the scale of money created as debt over the last few decades to compensate is truly phenomenal; amounting to hundreds of trillions (excluding “extra-terrestrial” amounts of “financials”), rising exponentially faster. This amount of debt, can never ever be repaid. The on-going contraction of the oil/energy system will exacerbate this trend until the financial system collapses. There is nothing anyone can do about it no matter how much money is printed, NIRP, ZIRP you name it – all the indicators are flashing red. The panacea of indefinite money printing will soon hit the thermodynamic energy wall of reality.
The effects we currently observe such as exponential growth in debt (US Debt alone almost doubled from $10 trillion to nearly $20 trillion during Obama’s tenure), and the financial problems of oil majors and oil producing countries, are clear indicators of the imminent contraction in existing global energy and financial systems.
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The coming failure of the global economic system will be a systemic failure. I say “systemic” because for the last 150 years up till now there has always been cheap and abundant oil to power recovery from previous busts. This era is over. Cheap and abundant oil will not be available for recovery from the next crunch, and the world will need to adopt a completely different economic and financial model.
The Economics “profession”
Economists would have us believe it’s just another turn of the credit cycle. This dismal non-science is in the main the lapdog of the establishment, the global financial and corporate interests. They have engineered the “science” to support the myth of perpetual growth to suit the needs of their pay-masters, the financial institutions, corporations and governments (who pay their salaries, fund the universities and research, etc). They have steadfastly ignored all ecological and resource issues and trends and warnings such as LTG, and portrayed themselves as the pre-eminent arbiters of human enterprise. By vehemently supporting the status quo, they of all groups, I hold primarily responsible for the appalling situation the planet faces; the destruction of the natural world, and many other threats to the global environment and its ability to sustain civilisation as we know it.
I have news for the “Economics Profession”. The perpetual growth fantasy financial system based on unlimited cheap energy is now coming to an end. From the planet’s point of view – it simply couldn’t be soon enough. This will mark the end of what I call the “Oilocene”. Human activities are having such an effect on the planet that the present age has been classified by geologists as a new geological era “The Anthropocene”. But although humans had already made a significant impact on natural systems, the Anthropocene has largely been defined by the relatively recent discovery and use of liquid fossil energy reserves amounting to millions of years of stored solar energy. Unlimited cheap oil has fuelled exponential growth in human systems to the point that many of these are now greater than natural planetary ones.
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This cannot be sustained without huge amounts of cheap net oil energy, so we are inescapably headed for “the great deceleration”. The situation is very like the fate of the Titanic which I have outlined in my presentation. Of the few who had the courage to face the economic wind of perpetual growth, I salute the authors of LTG and the memory of Richard Douthwaite (The Growth Illusion 1992), and all at FEASTA who are working hard to warn a deaf Ireland of what is to come and why – and have very sensibly been preparing for it! We will all need a lot of courage and resilience to face what is coming down the line.
Ireland has a very short time available to prepare for hard times.
There are many things we could do here to soften the impact if the problem was understood for what it is. FEASTA publications such as the Before The Wells Run Dry and Fleeing Vesuvius; and David Korowicz’s works such as The Tipping Point and of course, The Hills Group 2015 publication Depletion – a determination of the worlds petroleum reserve , and very many other references, provide background material and should be required urgent reading for all policy makers.
The pre-eminent challenge is energy for transport and agriculture. We could switch to use of compressed natural gas (CNG) as the urgent default transport/motive fuel in the short term since petrol and diesel engines can be converted to dual-fuel use with CNG; supplemented rapidly by biogas (since we are lucky enough to have plenty of agricultural land and water compared to many countries).
We could urgently switch to an organic high labour input agriculture concentrating on local self-sufficiency eliminating chemical inputs such as fertilisers pesticides and herbicides (as Cuba did after the fall of the Soviet Union). We could outlaw the use of oil for heating and switch to biomass.
We could penalise high electricity use and aim to massively cut consumption so that electricity can be supplied by completely renewable means – preserving our natural gas for transport fuel and the rapid transition from oil. The Grid could be urgently reconfigured to enable 100% use of renewable electricity within a few years. We could concentrate on local production of food, goods and services to reduce transport needs.
These measures would create a lot of jobs and improve the balance of payments. They have already been proposed in one form or another by FEASTA over the last 15 years.
Ireland has made a start, but it is insignificant compared to the scale and timescale of the challenge ahead as illustrated by the next image (SEAI: Energy in Ireland – Key Statistics 2015). We urgently need to shrink the oil portion to a small fraction of current use.
Current fossil energy use is very wasteful. By reducing waste and increasing efficiency we can use less. For instance, a large amount of the energy used as transport fuels and for electricity generation is lost to atmosphere as waste heat. New technological solutions include a global initiative to mount an affordable emergency response called nGeni that is solely based on well-known and proven technology components, integrated in a novel way, with a business and financial model enabling it to tap into over €5 trillion/year of funds currently wasted globally as waste heat. This has potential for Ireland, and will be outlined in a subsequent post.
To finance all the changes we need to implement, quickly (and hopefully before the full impact of the oil/financial catastrophe really kicks in), we could for instance create something like a massive multibillion “National Sustainability and Renewable Energy Bond”. Virtually all renewables provide a better (often substantially better) return on investment compared to bank savings, government bonds, etc; especially in the age of zero and negative interest rate policies ZIRP, NIRP etc.
We may need to think about managing this during a contraction in the economy and financial system which could occur at any time. We certainly could do with a new clever breed of “Ecological Economists” to plan for the end of the old system and its replacement by a sustainable new one. There is no shortage of ideas. The disappearance of trillions of fake money and the shrinking of national and local tax income which currently funds the existing system and its social programmes will be a huge challenge to social stability in Ireland and all over the world.
It’s now “Emergency Red Alert”. If we delay, we won’t have the energy or the money to implement even a portion of what is required. We need to drag our politicians and policy makers kicking and screaming to the table, to make them understand the dire nature of the predicament and challenge them to open their eyes to the increasingly obvious, and to take action. We can thank The Hills Group for elucidating so clearly the root causes of the problem, but the indicators of systemic collapse have for many years been frantically jumping up and down, waving at us and shouting LOOK AT ME! Meanwhile the majority of blinkered clueless economists that advise business and government and who plan our future, look the other way.
In 1972 “The Limits to Growth” warned of the consequences of growing reliance on the finite resource called “oil” and of the suicidal economics mantra of endless growth. The challenge Ireland will soon face is managing a fast economic and energy contraction and implementing sustainability on a massive scale whilst maintaining social cohesion. Whatever the outcome (managed or chaotic contraction), we will soon all have to live with a lot less energy and physical resources. That in itself might not necessarily be such a bad thing provided the burden is shared. “Modern citizens today use more energy and physical resources in a month than our great-grandparents used during their whole lifetime” (John Thackera; “From Oil Age to Soil Age”, Doors to Perception; Dec 2016). Were they less happy than us?
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52 Comments on "End of the “Oilocene”: The Demise of the Global Oil Industry and of the Global Economic System as we know it."
penury on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 11:06 am
This appears to speak truth, now if we can only find a way to blame Trump and Putin everyone will accept it.
Plantagenet on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 11:37 am
Fake news about fake money.
shortonoil on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 12:00 pm
In the 2000 WEO Campbell and Leharrere stated that world C&C reserves stood at 1,800 Gb. Their evaluation, even though the most through and accurate ever accomplished to that date, was ridiculed viciously by many lesser accomplished petro-geologists, including those within the EIA. The Etp Model produces a value of 1760 Gb which is very supportive of their original evaluation. We hope that it is used to vindicate the work of these outstanding gentlemen.
Conventional methodology for generating reserve status can be used to produce reliable results as demonstrated by the work of Campbell and Leharrere. It is, unfortunately, often used by internet hacks, and goal seeking proponents to generate results that are intentionally deceptive and misleading. These poorly designed, and constructed attempts to evaluate reserve status have created a false sense of security concerning our energy situation. As a result the general public has lost all interest in one of the most critical issues facing the modern world today.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Apneaman on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 12:05 pm
It’s very obvious to anyone not deep into magical thinking and/or willful ignorance that the industrial cancer is coming apart at the seems.
A nation of Flints: America has 1.2m miles of deteriorating lead pipes and they’ll cost $1 trillion to fix
“Lead pipes have a lifespan of about 75 years — and America’s lead pipe are about 75 years old. 3,000 American municipalities have 1.2m miles of lead pipe, and it’s all overdue for replacement, but there’s no plan in hand to do so, and any workable plan will cost about $1 trillion to execute.
Children poisoned by lead grow up with cognitive deficits and physical disabilities.”
https://boingboing.net/2017/01/25/a-nation-of-flints-america-ha.html
For sometime there has been a hypothesis that too much lead exposure among the upper classes was a big factor in the collapse of the Roman empire. Maybe lead exposure in the US explains the overwhelming number of fucking retards per capita?
rockman on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 12:21 pm
Not to be too f*cking technical but there is no “Oilocene” epoch . LOL. We are currently in the Holocene epoch.
And for what it’s worth: The Oligocene is often considered an important time of transition, a link between the archaic world of the tropical Eocene and the more modern ecosystems of the Miocene. Major changes during the Oligocene included a global expansion of grasslands, and a regression of tropical broad leaf forests to the equatorial belt.
And the Oligocene was followed by the Miocene which ended about 5 million years ago: The Miocene Epoch, 23.03 to 5.3 million years ago,* was a time of warmer global climates than those in the preceeding Oligocene or the following Pliocene and it’s notable in that two major ecosystems made their first appearances: kelp forests and grasslands.
Which was followed by the Pliocene which ended about 2.5 million years ago. During that time climate became cooler and drier, and seasonal, similar to modern climates. The global average temperature was 2–3 °C higher than today, global sea level 25m higher and the northern hemisphere ice sheet was ephemeral before the onset of extensive glaciation over Greenland that occurred in the late Pliocene around 3 Ma.
And that was followed by the Pleistocene often colloquially referred to as the Ice Age) is the geological epoch which lasted from about 2.5 million years to 11,700 years ago, spanning the world’s most recent period of repeated glaciations. The end of the Pleistocene corresponds with the end of the last glacial period and also with the end of the Paleolithic age used in archaeology.
And that finally brings us to the current epoch…the Holocene. I think since the focus is on man’s activity instead of “oiliocene” a better term would be the “Oilithic Age” that has followed the Paleolithic Age. As can be seen each epoch and age has it’s own lifespan. The Holocene and Oilithic Age will be no different.
joe on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 1:21 pm
Good read. It follows allot of common sense but projects too many outcomes. Humans will go to ANY length to ensure BAW and they won’t care if it takes a trillion trillions of debt to ensure it. Sadly oil will be around until climate change wipes us out (much sooner than peak oil probobly would anyway). Redefining the goals of society from targeted gdp growth to somthing like ‘happiness’ or neo-agrarianism, would first require putting every billionaire out of business, and that would require bloodshed beyond anything worth doing. This article is very good, accurate and goes neatly into my Cassandra files.
HARM on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 1:34 pm
“…I had recently devoured a copy of The Limits to Growth (LTG) published in 1972, and here it was playing out in front of me. Their Business as Usual (BAU) scenario showed that global economic growth would be over between 2010 -2020; and today 45 years later, that prediction is inexorably becoming true.”
No no no! A thousand articles posted by the WSJ, NYT, Fortune, API, Heritage Foundation, etc. all have long since debunked the Malthusian Doomer Myth of Overpopulation.
We are not facing overshoot! We are facing a “birth dearth” because –obviously– the world’s population is *falling*, not growing. The evil George Soros backed globalists want to promote “white genocide” as a way to destroy the West and impose their diabolical plan of global socialist domination. I know all this because Alex Jones and Daily Stormer told me.
HARM on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 1:50 pm
Why do tree-hugging communists like FEASTA Hate Our Freedom™? Oil is below $3/gal. And the Wall Street party is BACK ON! That’s all that matters. Drill, baby, drill!
We need to build the Dakota Access Pipeline right on top of the bodies of Standing Rock Sioux and liberal protesters. If you’re an enemy of American Energy Independence®, then you’re an enemy of America. And who are these so called “native Americans” anyway? Their dark features look mighty suspicious to me, and I have it on good authority that their ancestors snuck into this country from Siberia 12,000 years ago using some trick called a “land bridge”. Really sneaky!
Cloggie on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 1:53 pm
In the 2000 WEO Campbell and Leharrere stated that world C&C reserves stood at 1,800 Gb. Their evaluation, even though the most through and accurate ever accomplished to that date, was ridiculed viciously by many lesser accomplished petro-geologists, including those within the EIA. The Etp Model produces a value of 1760 Gb which is very supportive of their original evaluation. We hope that it is used to vindicate the work of these outstanding gentlemen.
We are all very grateful for your relentless efforts of monitoring the state of conventional oil. It may be a futile effort in drawing the wrong conclusions for the overall energy situation, but it is the thought that counts. Keep up the good work!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_coal_gasification
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2015/04/07/fracking-is-for-amateurs/
penury on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 1:54 pm
I suppose it depends which team you support what view you take of the world. I have heard “Experts” from Goldman and other banks opining on how Trump is going to ban import of oil from the rest of the world, and that might raise gas prices. These are supposedly the “experts” that guide the investments. They may be correct but not for the reasons stated,m one expert was railing that thee world price of oil is at least 15 dollars a barrel higher than WTI. that was all I could stand.
HARM on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 2:01 pm
“…Goldman and other banks opining on how Trump is going to ban import of oil from the rest of the world, and that might raise gas prices.”
When the ex-CEO of Exxon-Mobile is Trump’s Secretary of State? Really? That’s about as likely as Trump putting BLM in charge of Homeland Security.
Jerry McManus on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 3:02 pm
Rockman tells it like it was.
Harquebus on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 5:30 pm
With such a good grasp of our situation, the author is a complete imbecile when it comes to offering solutions.
jjhman on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 6:13 pm
Which ones are the alternate facts and which are the real facts?
If I could figger that out I’d know what to do.
JuanP on Tue, 31st Jan 2017 10:25 pm
Harquebus “With such a good grasp of our situation, the author is a complete imbecile when it comes to offering solutions.” There are no solutions, dude. Smoke one and chill out. You should prepare for what’s coming as best you can for your sake and that of your loved ones. But time is running out and looking for solutions to our current predicaments is a waste of resources. Focus instead on shelter, water, food, and personal defense. When your kids go hungry you will deeply regret every second of your life that you are wasting looking for solutions that don’t exist. Today my wife and I spent the morning farming, had lunch with family and then spent one hour at the firing range in the afternoon. Seize the day!
Hubert on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 2:36 am
It might get like this soon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwU5TfAmMlQ&t=3s
Davy on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 10:43 am
“Stagflation Shock: ISM Shows Input Costs Soaring At Fastest Since 2011”
http://tinyurl.com/gs5j9cu
“Input cost inflation is soaring at its highest since September 2014 according to Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI survey”
“Prices Paid are soaring… (and export orders dropping) ISM notes that…Commodities Down in Price: None. Commodities in Short Supply: None. So, to be clear, everything is up in price, but there is no shortage of anything.”
“With input costs also rising at the steepest rate for over two years, and hiring sustained at an encouragingly solid pace as firms expand capacity, all of the survey indicators point to the Fed hiking interest rates again soon.”
shortonoil on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 10:44 am
“We are all very grateful for your relentless efforts of monitoring the state of conventional oil. It may be a futile effort in drawing the wrong conclusions for the overall energy situation, but it is the thought that counts. Keep up the good work!”
The Shale industry has spent over $1 trillion to create an industry that generates $362 billion annually in gross sales. If the industry produced a 10% profit margin on those sales (which it doesn’t) and paid zero percent interest on the money it would take 27 years to return the principle. At a 5% interest rate on their investment it would take over 60 years.
Basing the future of modern civilization on an industry that can not even pay for itself has to be the epitome of stupidity. But judging by the response, we are replete with such characteristics.
Cloggie on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 10:52 am
So why is the oil industry then still making profits? Not as much as it used to be, but still?
The Shale industry has spent over $1 trillion to create an industry that generates $362 billion annually in gross sales.
OK, so the industry has been created and will have paid itself back in a couple of years. Where is the catch?
Davy on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 10:56 am
Something else that can’t pay for itself:
“European Bond Bloodbath – Worst January On Record Exposes Political Panic Across EU”
http://tinyurl.com/hf3uhu7
“Amid heightened political risk across the currency bloc and speculation the European Central Bank may bring its asset-purchase program to an abrupt halt in 2018, yields on French and Italian bonds climbed this week to their highest level relative to benchmark German debt since 2014. As Bloomberg reports, rising populism in the region’s biggest economies and speculation that the ECB’s stimulus plan may be nearing its endgame have clouded the horizon for bond investors, who have grown used to the central bank insulating euro-area securities from political tension. That’s seen yield spreads expand to levels unseen since quantitative easing began in 2015, and left analysts forecasting more pain if electoral risks materialize, particularly in light of the extreme market reactions seen in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US.”
joe on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 11:00 am
Wait. Um Merkel will let in a few more refugees and threaten all member states with ‘the Greek treatment’ unless they shut up and continue their austerity meds.
Sissyfuss on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 11:35 am
It’s called a Ponzi, 20th century Clod. Why don’t you put on your snorkel and inventory the undersea coal seam you’re delirious about.
Your retrograde mind isn’t capable of understanding any of the Hills Groups algorithms. It is too engrossed with the tradjedy of Adolf and why the Neverlands (sic) haven’t created a holiday for the ultimate racist. Your true love and your present day condition are one and the same, you’re both history.
antaris on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 12:29 pm
Clog can you show some proof that the Shale Industry has made profit ? “So why is the oil industry then still making profits? Not as much as it used to be, but still?”
Sissyfuss on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 1:51 pm
I love the smell of methane in the morning, it smells like Cloggenfarten.
rockman on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 2:46 pm
Cloggie – “The Shale industry has spent over $1 trillion to create an industry that generates $362 billion annually in gross sales. OK, so the industry has been created and will have paid itself back in a couple of years. Where is the catch?”
My thought also. In the oil patch recovering your costs in 2 or 3 years of production is considered doing damn good. Always has been…always will be. If someone thinks recovering one’s investment in a year or even 18 months is the norm they have no f*cking idea about economics…oil patch or any other.
IOW how many here have ever invested $X in anything and received $X in revenue in 12 to 18 months with future revenue still to come? In oil patch economics if you recover your investment in 12 months that calculates to be ROR of 100%.
And that’s talking about an individual well and not companywide. If an oil/NG company is realizing an ROR of 10% or 12% they are considered to be doing very well.
And remember that, if accurate, the shale industry spent over $1 trillion to generates $362 billion annually in gross sales that $1 trillion wasn’t invested in one year unlike that supposed $362 billion it’s receiving in just 12 months. Of course those are just generalized meatball numbers that I assume don’t capture the cost of debt nor the benefit of tax breaks like the depletion allowance.
But if in general the $1 trillion investment is returning (just this year) $362 billion the shale players have done damn good financially. Which makes me suspect those numbers are too optimistic.
But remember what the Rockman has repeated pointed out for many years: the primary motive of the publicly owned shale playing companies wasn’t long term rate of return but short term growth in stock value. In that regards a great deal of profit was realized by the early shareholders/investors that cashed out before the bust came. Hundreds of $billions (if not in the $trillions) was made by those folks.
Remember the story about Petrohawk: after investing a few hundred $million in “seed money” in the Eagle Ford Shale sold their position for $12 BILLION. And the company that bought those leases? In the following years it saw its stock price decrease almost $100 BILLION.
The US shale play doesn’t represent of “loose” per se. It represents a huge wealth transfer. That supposed $1 trillion invested wasn’t pushed into a big pile and set on fire: what was “lost” by one group was “found” by another group. And many in both groups were folks in the oil patch.
So again I’ll repeat: it’s never personal… just business.
BTW there’s another huge wealth transfer going on in the oil patch today. Not via drilling but by acquisition/divestiture.
Cloggie on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 3:01 pm
Thanks Rockman for the confirmation, they won’t take it from me.lol
Cloggie on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 3:09 pm
I love the smell of methane in the morning, it smells like Cloggenfarten.
Trump has massive support with the European populists. Today in Dutch parliament, Geert Wilders praising Trump in high heaven (English subs):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gChyjJNB-1s
Interesting little detail: six weeks before the general elections here, Geert Wilders is massively increasing his lead and he is almost certain to win the election:
http://www.nipo.nl/nieuws/persberichten/peiling-too-close-to-call-voor-plek-3-t-m-6/
It will be very difficult to ignore him and keep him out of government.
Thanks Donald!
And then there is France. The chances of Marine le Pen winning in May have increased substantially now that the other rightwinger Fillon has shot himself in the foot (or his wife rather):
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/wahl-in-frankreich-macron-ueberholt-fillon-in-umfrage-a-1132687.html
Soooh, this possibility is rapidly becoming more credible:
http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/journalist-holds-a-placard-with-portraits-of-russian-president-putin-picture-id630453462
Davy on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 3:14 pm
Yea rock, still doesn’t mean society came out ahead. Those numbers are up in the air. Shale was part of the bubble that gutted the global financial system and now we are in systematic decay and decline. Thanks oil guys in the shale fields for screwing us. I know just business and if I could screw you guys over I would just business. Yet, one day this fun and games is going to be about 2 meals instead of 3 then it is going to be nature saying just life or increasingly death. Thanks guys!
Sissyfuss on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 4:50 pm
Yes Colog, the entire world is turning to the right but it’s out of desperation, not rational thought.
antaris on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 5:20 pm
Clog & Rock, Short is talking about 27 plus years, not 18 months. And for those playing lost and found, I hope they are playing with extra money not the title to their house.
Cloggie on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 5:27 pm
The Shale industry has spent over $1 trillion to create an industry that generates $362 billion annually in gross sales. If the industry produced a 10% profit margin on those sales (which it doesn’t) and paid zero percent interest on the money it would take 27 years to return the principle. At a 5% interest rate on their investment it would take over 60 years.
@antaris – and where do these “$362 billion annually” fit in?
Cloggie on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 5:29 pm
Yes Colog, the entire world is turning to the right but it’s out of desperation, not rational thought.
Your point? Desperation and rational thinking exclude each other?
Edgy, edgy.
Cloggie on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 6:05 pm
Yes Colog, the entire world is turning to the right but it’s out of desperation, not rational thought.
NY Professor Says Algebra Is Too Hard, Schools Should Drop It
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/28/ny-professor-says-algebra-is-too-hard-schools-should-drop-it/
NYC is for less than 30% white…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City#Demographics
…and apparently it is difficult to find any thought left at all, rational, algebraic or otherwise. One would have thought that with all these Arabs around, algebra would be flourishing. After all they invented it, as per our house genius Friday.
Now let me see… you advocate more “rational thought”. Knowing you and your egalitarian proclivities a little longer than today, that probably boils down to dragging even more non-whites into the country, am I right?
Wonder when they will stop teaching elementary calculation a la 3 x 4 altogether, too complex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZ4YV3nWwWc
In New York
Concrete jungle where dreams are made of
There’s nothing you can’t do
Now you’re in New York
These streets will make you feel brand new
Big lights will inspire you
Let’s hear it for New York, New York, New York
I made you hot nigga
antaris on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 6:08 pm
The $362 billion is the cash flow that keeps some of the balloons in the air.The whole thing is a Ponzi scam, but then again one type among many. If Short is right it won’t be long before many more of those balloons will be heading towards the ground.Cash flow can slow bankruptcy.
Apneaman on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 6:56 pm
Clogish, my god your fawning over Cheeto is both obscene and ridiculous. What a fucking child. I guess it’s true that as the humans age they regress to infancy and if they live long enough it’s diapers and a nursing home. Got your Depends on today clog? I imagine you do since you shit yourself with glee every time the great Cheeto speaks.
Don’t look to me like everyone is down with the Big Cheeto and his new swamp cancer crew. Big fights coming.
European Council president includes United States as a threat to Europe
“In a harshly worded open letter to 27 European Union heads of state, Donald Tusk said “worrying declarations” by the new administration were helping make the EU’s future “highly unpredictable.”
http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-europe-trump-20170131-story.html
All over the intertubes, I hear both left and right wingnuts calling for violence and it’s increasing. Primitive monkey tribes willing to die for their beliefs. It always come to this near the end. Look at us. Stand back and pretend to be an alien observer and what do you see? Does anyone actually see any sapience at all in the humans? Maybe you know someone who is wise, but collective the humans are short on sapience. Standing back and observing, I see a species not in control and suicidal. How can anyone come to any other conclusion than the humans are a plague species? I feel no shame or guilt over it even though a big part of my privileged life has been made possible by the exploitation of many others. Not my fault I was born a first world cancer. Evolution made me and I never was asked if I wanted to be born. The humans are a tragic species, such promise, but in the end they could escape their biologly. Fermi paradox anyone?
Open-ended growth appears to be inherent in nature, all the way from the DNA to the arthropods to mammals, including humans. Open-ended growth is the psychology of a cancer cell. I am not sure I know of a species which has learnt how to limit its own growth. Unfortunately species which transcend their environmental resources can hardly survive – the final arbiter of the climate impasse will be nature itself. ~
Andrew Glikson, Earth and paleo-climate scientist, Australian National University
Clogo, keep doing your thang little buddy. I can see you get lots of dopamine hits and that’s what were here for after all right? You atheist like me, so you need to make up a reason for why we are here. Man did you ever pick a doozy.
rockman on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 7:43 pm
Davy – “Yea rock, still doesn’t mean society came out ahead.” I guess you need to define “society” for me. The service companies made a fortune, their employees made a shit load of money along with the employees and management of the oil companies, the landowners made 100’s of $millions in royalties and lease bonuses, then county, state and federal tax authorities made a shit load of money, the pre-boom shareholders of the pubcos that bailed before the crash made $billions and, above all, the vast majority of the public (the fossil fuel consumers) made out like funking bandits: a huge increase in refinery products from a huge surge in oil production that they didn’t pay a penny to develop. In fact, think if the US shale boom had not happened how much higher oil prices might have gone and the huge increase of our trade imbalance had we bought hundreds of $billions of imported oil. One can only speculate how many companies would have shut down and hundreds of thousands (if not millions) lost jobs had we had to deal with oil prices much higher then we did experience.
OTOH folks who invested in oil stocks right before the bust and the bond holders, bankers and other investors lost a shut load of money. But they were in the game solely to make a profit. No different then anyone investing in a risky volitile market looking to make a high ROR. And they lost their bet…so f*ck them. LOL.
Again let me say one more time and maybe it will finally sink in: society did not lose a f*cking penny in the shale play. Again: SOCIETY DID NOT LOSE A F*CKING PENNY IN THE SHALE PLAY. But there was a huge transfer of monies from some segments of society to other segments of society. And in the process instead of a huge transfer of US $dollars to foreign oil producers for oil (that would have been more expensive) those $’s stayed in the country going directly to millions of our citizens and indirectly to 300+ million citizens from the taxes that were collected those BILLIONS of bbls of NEW domestic oil production.
So again, you need to explain to me exactly how “society” didn’t come out way ahead by the USA producing billions of bbls of oil instead of importing billions of bbl of higher priced oil.
antaris – I have no idea where your numbers came from. Mine came directly from shorty: “The Shale industry has spent over $1 trillion to create an industry that generates $362 billion annually in gross sales.”
If you invested $1 trillion and were getting a check back for $362 billion each year wouldn’t you be happier then a puppy with two peters? LOL.
Sissyfuss on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 8:10 pm
Klerg, shocking that it be, I am anti immigration. Overshoot and resource depletion along with the scuttling of globalization means it’s every country for themselves.
And as the walls go up we had better learn to get along or it will be “Masque of the Red Death.”
makati1 on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 8:19 pm
Sissy, yep! Walls also keep people IN. Soon you will not be allowed to go outside without government permission. Oops! You already need that, especially if you want to come back in. Have you ever been interrogated by immigration when you return and realize that every personal question they ask has its answer on their computer screen? I have. Every year for the last 10. I would rather have a tooth pulled without Novocaine, and I am an old, white, retired American. lol
For anyone who has not been outside of the U$ in the last 10 years, (I do not consider Canada or Mexico “outside”) Try it. I think you will rapidly understand what I am saying.
antaris on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 8:45 pm
Rock I am using a Shorts numbers. $362 Billion in gross sales less all the stuff it takes to have that tight oil sitting in thousands of little tanks beside the straw, will leave some amount that must pay interest and dividends.
In my business if I invested $300 grand and grossed $100 grand / year, I’d be going to see the doctor for some anxiety medication. But you are right in that the shale kept a lot of money in North America that might have bled out. Canada depends on the USA and the USA depends on Canada. Shale has positively affected my business over the last few years, but I am doubtful that it has been good for the human race longturm.
Apneaman on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 9:08 pm
“Again: SOCIETY DID NOT LOSE A F*CKING PENNY IN THE SHALE PLAY.”
Spoken like a true CANCER.
None of the world’s top industries would be profitable if they paid for the natural capital they use
http://grist.org/business-technology/none-of-the-worlds-top-industries-would-be-profitable-if-they-paid-for-the-natural-capital-they-use/
Along with the rest of us, your entire family is going to be externalized rockman. Fucking Cancer.
See how societies tax dollars are now being spent on flood control in the cancer capital of America – Houston. The 2 2016 record breaking floods cost plenty. These are AGW jacked rain bombs and they are the new normal and are going to get worse. The AGW jacked rain bombs are an externalize and Houston must do something or else the city will fall apart. So who is. profiting the most? The cancer industry. Who is paying? Society. Privatize the profits and socialize the costs. This how capitalism is designed to work. Rockman full of shit as usual, but what else is a duke of cancer supposed to say?
Innovative plan could break logjam on flood improvements
“The effort is intended to have a simple outcome – speeding up flood control work – but has resulted from complex negotiations spanning months and involving four levels of government.
In short, the city of Houston would ask the state for a $46 million loan, which it then would give to the Harris County Flood Control District to speed up work on long-delayed Project Brays. The federal Army Corps of Engineers would reimburse the county after the work was done, ending the city’s commitment.
City officials hope to repeat that process for two other bayous – White Oak and Hunting, likely in that order – ultimately forwarding the county about $130 million, city “flood czar” Steve Costello told council staffers at a Monday briefing. City Council will consider the loan application Wednesday.”
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Innovative-plan-could-break-logjam-on-flood-10878384.php
Apneaman on Wed, 1st Feb 2017 10:06 pm
Another AGW/cancer externality.
Who paying for it?
Louisiana Tries New Defense Against Floods — Move People To Higher Ground
http://www.npr.org/2017/01/29/512271883/louisiana-tries-new-defense-against-floods-move-people-to-higher-ground
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 2:46 am
Klerg, shocking that it be, I am anti immigration. Overshoot and resource depletion along with the scuttling of globalization means it’s every country for themselves.
And as the walls go up we had better learn to get along or it will be “Masque of the Red Death.”
Uh-oh, closet Natzi alert. During the day spouting socialist opinions, but at night with the curtains closed it is Stormfront time.lol
You are hiding your secret white nationalist desires behind a facade of political correct environmentalism.
You don’t have to get along, secession worked in the USSR, Yugoslavia and Eyeraq; it will work in the US as well.
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 2:51 am
Shale has positively affected my business over the last few years, but I am doubtful that it has been good for the human race longturm.
As I said to Rockman, they won’t take it from me.
Rockman is the only one here who really knows what he is talking about, when it comes to oil, oil technology, oil markets.
Have no difficulty recognizing free high quality consultancy when I see it. 🙂
Davy on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 5:18 am
Bullshit Rock, how the frig do you know? This will play out over time if the bubble called shale and post 08 macroeconomics sinks us. They were both intricately related and both part of the same Ponzi that is clearly destroying society. You shale boys are about profit for yourselves and all the others that got their living off that economic segment. That does not mean you were good for society as a whole and at a higher level of wisdom for a future. You are stuck in your normal pseudo economic failed thinking of market based capitalism with private property and free choice. That does not rise to the level of what is best for society that is self-centered benefit.
Your thinking has a place on certain levels because that is how society thinks. I am talking about an abstract level higher than that asking was it worth it for society to go down that path. Your shale has yet to turn a profit in my definition of that societal direction. Even on the basic level of business profit and loss as a segment. The answer is all over the place whether you are profitable. Lots of bad debt out there. We may have had much better opportunities elsewhere with that huge investment. It is likely that this huge macro investment was squandered by you profit raping self-centered businessmen…just business. You are talking the usual shit that our failed market based capitalism is talking and it is killing us.
Screw your “just business”. We are talking about survival of the human species. I have often defended you oil people because hey we are an oil culture. Assholes here on this board that want to blame the world on you oil guys is wrong on a certain level because survival is linked to oil but right on other levels. This other level asks are we going in the right direction now or are you oil boys digging the hole deeper. We know oil is killing. Is it killing the economy? There is evidence it is by poor investments. We know it is killing the environment but unfortunately that is a catch 22 situation. Leave oil we die continue with oil we die. So screw your “SOCIETY DID NOT LOSE A F*CKING PENNY IN THE SHALE PLAY” LOL.
Davy on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 5:33 am
“Have no difficulty recognizing free high quality consultancy when I see it.”
Of course Clog this mentality is just part of your failed techno message that is playing out before our eyes. You guys are digging our hole deeper as you stroke yourselves with techno fantasy and false achievements. You are all about “how wonderful we are”. For you it is also a reinforcement on how wonderful you white Europeans are and how you will save yourselves.
You are putting the horse way in front of the cart. If you wanted to admit it is yet to be seen if this will be a success I would say yea we don’t really know yet. I would also say we must as a society not evaluate progress only for progress sake. This is poor wisdom and what you are doing. You guys are likely killing us thinking you are saving us. That is a horrible thing to do.
At lease reflect on where we are going and not blindly going down a habituated path. You are clearly in cognitive dissonance or you would not be on a site that is doom related like PO. Peak oil and all its related problems are pure doom. You are here because you are scared shitless like many others. You are trying to prove this doom wrong to satisfy your fear and anxiety of a painful death from collapse. Your overpopulated overextended Europe is just as bad as many other places because you can’t downsize without people dying. We are all in better shape than Asia and the Middle East but not much.
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 5:51 am
For you it is also a reinforcement on how wonderful you white Europeans are and how you will save yourselves.
Don’t make Americans smaller than they are. It was you who put a man on the moon.
So what should we do to get a Davy-certification of good behavior? Roll over and die? Sit on a pole all day?
Davy on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 6:15 am
I want to know how getting to the moon is going to save our ass. What I am telling you and you are unable to hear is that this “getting to the moon” attitude is what is going to drive our species into extinction if we don’t ever find the wisdom to say “NO”. “No” is not always the answer but at the macro societal level there is no “NO” and it is all about the “YES” of progress and development either status quo or fake green. These are question that are without good answers and they are catch 22 questions with no good choices going forward. At this point it is about trade-offs and sacrifice in my mind. In your mind it is balls to the walls forward and for white Europe not the darkies. You act like your answers are not catch 22 but I can prove every one of them has negative consequences. You act like your whites are the only ones worthy of living. Why are you special? What makes that little Dutch baby more worthy than a little African baby? Saying you have more intelligence and culture won’t hunt in my book. This is about more than intelligence and culture because those are subjective not objective. Nature has a different reality from your white Euro-racism.
Cloud9.5 on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 7:01 am
So,the collapse is 3 years out.
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 7:18 am
I want to know how getting to the moon is going to save our ass. What I am telling you and you are unable to hear is that this “getting to the moon” attitude is what is going to drive our species into extinction if we don’t ever find the wisdom to say “NO”.
The moon landing was 1969, “Limits to Growth” was 1972. So don’t mix things up. The moon landing was a grandiose achievement, the greatest of American society (with a “little Nazi help”). Going to the moon will indeed not be very high on the agenda in this century, we have more pressing problems to solve. And the initiative for solving these problems (if they can be solved in the first place and most collapse whiners here think they can’t, just to create the excuse for themselves not to even have to try) will of course mainly come from Europe, who else? Sorry if that hurt your exceptionalist feelings, but that’s the way things are.
You act like your whites are the only ones worthy of living.
“your whites”, LOL. So who is talking from that Ozark hut, freaking Uncle Tom himself? ROFL
I never said we are the only people worthy of living, but I did say that we have a God damn right to exist in the first place.
What makes that little Dutch baby more worthy than a little African baby?
What is this crap? Who says it is?
Saying you have more intelligence and culture won’t hunt in my book.
Oh my, fence sitter Davy is doing the Kumbaya routine again. Like every closet lefty he retreats in American Ozark jungle, as far away as possible from St. Louis-East, to next begin to lecture the rest of the world about racism (exactly like Greg), where in reality his country is coming apart because of denying race realities.
Nature has a different reality from your white Euro-racism.
No it hasn’t. History is nothing more than the eternal struggle between human groups, with ethnicity and/or religion the determining factor. And that is what you are about to find out the hard way.
[part 1]
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Feb 2017 7:18 am
Makati is right, you are underneath NOT a deplorable, but a pious 1%, who only a few years ago posted from a private plane over Lake Michigan and flew to his parents on the Bahama’s (if I remember well). Greg same story (also owned a private plane until very recently). And don’t get me wrong, I do not denounce your plane ownership, but you are both riding a very high moral horse. How Anglo (Zionist). The only reason why you go at each others throat is because he has a Canadian and you an American passport. But for the rest you are both very similar. What I denounce in you both is your total lack of will of self-preservation. And it is THAT and nothing else that will cause the coming downfall of Anglosphere.
https://www.amazon.com/Suicide-Superpower-Will-America-Survive-ebook/dp/B004YD36HS/ref=sr_1_3
You have no sense of ethnic and national identity, since your ancestors handed over their old European ones to Emma Lazarus like a worn overcoat at Ellis Island. And Emma loved it because she and her group could use that circumstance to use the folks without identity and a gigantic oil based economy to go on a world conquest, with us in Europe as their first target.
Do I regret that the immanent downgrade of Anglosphere? Of course not. For hundred years you folks have been nothing but the water carriers of those who can’t be named. Davy doesn’t want want to talk about them, Greg (as a Canadian) does (and makati to a lesser extent). But the irony is that you both (DavyGreg) are still carrying out the agenda (opinion-wise) set out by them (detruction of the white race), with your pious self-defeating “anti-racism” baloney. If the white race if going to survive, it won’t be because of Anglos. It will be despite Anglos.
In Holland we had the great anti-Spanish/anti-Catholic uprising of 1568, that lasted for 80 years. Who did the shooting? Dutch deplorables, or “Geuzen”, rable & beggars from the street, not the 1%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geuzen
Won’t be different this time in North-America.
Sorry for disturbing your world-view in a country where never anything has happened since the Civil War.
[part 2]