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Page added on February 19, 2017
Driverless Cars: Their Time Will Never Come
Can we just get real here for a minute? Our streets and highways are never going to be populated by a significant number of driverless cars. Any more than our lives are going to be enriched by attentive robots exhibiting artificial intelligence. We are no closer to deploying fleets of driverless cars now than we were to having a flying car in every garage, as the illustrated predictions in Popular Mechanics and the like insisted through the 50s and 60s. And 70s and 80s. (I should have warned you about the disorientation a sudden dose of realism can have; sit down and breath into a paper bag, it will pass.)
The deafening hype we are hearing about driverless cars is the sound of an entire industry trying to administer mouth-to-mouth resuscitation to itself. Everything we hear about the auto industry is good (“2016 U.S.Auto Sales Set New High Record”) because everything we hear comes from the auto industry. And yet its healthy glow is beginning to take on the ghastly sheen of a dead mackerel.
Ever since President Obama saved the auto industry from meltdown in 2008 (yes, he did, you can look it up) it has been the leading light of American industrial activity. Sales bottomed out at fewer than 10 million units in 2009, but have risen steadily since, to an all time high of 17.5 million units, in 2016. What could be wrong with this picture?
Couple of things. First, these sales were accomplished by offering low- and no-interest loans, low- and no-down-payment loans, then extending the length of the loans to lower the payments still more. The average term of a car loan is now five and a half years, with six- and seven-year loans ever more frequent. Still this wasn’t enough. To get the numbers they wanted they had to start making loans to less and less credit-worthy buyers. Before long, in order to keep the big wheel turning, lenders were bundling car loans and securitizing them for more cash to lend to sub-prime borrowers. The sales were booked. The loans were booked (with everyone involved collecting their commissions in cash). But the cars haven’t been paid for yet, and now the default rates are in the stratosphere. According to MarketWatch:
The number of subprime auto loans sinking into delinquency hit their highest level since 2010 in the third quarter, with roughly 6 million individuals at least 90 days late on their payments. It’s behavior much like that seen in the months heading into the 2007-2009 recession, according to data from Federal Reserve Bank of New York researchers. “The worsening in the delinquency rate of subprime auto loans is pronounced, with a notable increase during the past few years,” the researchers…said Wednesday.
Nobody could have seen that coming.
Another thing. When the factories ship cars and trucks to the dealers, to sit on lots for no one knows how long, they count them as “sold” even though the dealer has the right to return them. At the end of 2016, a banner year for “sales,” an all-time high of almost four million cars were sitting on dealer lots unsold.
So despite the glossy paint on its exterior, the auto industry is rapidly rusting out from within, and desperately needs its Next Big Thing to appear NOW. Hybrids were it for a while, but gas prices went down and huge SUVs rule the road again. Electric plug-ins? Naw. See the fate of the hybrid. But self-driving cars? Now you got some buzz, man. This could be it.
But desperation generates its own buzz. The makers of computers and cell phones and tablets have all been seeking the Next Big Thing with equal desperation for years. A few years ago it was The Smart Watch. Drum roll!!! Fanfare!!! Launch!!! Nobody bought ‘em. Remember Google Glass? Gone. Virtual reality is currently having its 15-minute audition. The Samsung Galaxy Note 7? Crashed and burned. Literally.
None of these products came to market in response to a need people had. You know, like when they invented the fly swatter. These were things that engineers and marketers believed the general public could be enticed to buy. And that used to work, back when we had a middle class in America with money to spare. Then, you could make a go of pet rocks with the right advertising campaign.
But driverless cars? Let’s try one though experiment. It’s a couple years from now, and you call an Uber car, and when it pulls to the curb and waits for you to get in, there is no one in the car, and there are no controls in the car. Are you going to get in?
Me neither.
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59 Comments on "Driverless Cars: Their Time Will Never Come"
bug on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 6:38 am
Bingo!
John Kintree on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 7:12 am
I would get in.
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 7:20 am
The author of this article shoots himself in the foot and is delivering exactly the arguments why the driver-less car has a future. The (correct) picture is being drawn of a consumer market that is ever less able to buy or pay-off its cars. But that is precisely the reason why driver-less cars will take off: there is no longer the expensive necessity of owning a car. The driver-less car is not yet another consumer gadget, but will be an extension of the public transport sector. It is a perfect way to gradually kick-off the car habit.
John Kintree on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 7:39 am
In addition to the personal financial benefit from shared, self driving cars, there will be social benefits from reduced wreckage and carnage on our roads.
The greatest risk of being in an accident will come from the cars that continue to be driven by people.
peakyeast on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 7:46 am
When I can buy a autonomous car – where I have access to the programming and electronics – So I can verify there are no “features” I do not want and I can buy it for about
3000$ – then I am getting it…
Until then I will wait. Probably forever…
joe on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 7:59 am
Probobly there will be some kind of mix. The problem is the grey areas. Cars would still be manned at owners risk, and passengers would probobly have some control over the vehicle like emergency stop and call for help facilities. Since most journeys are short trips its likely that cars will have detailed knowledge of small areas and humans can be trained for the long complex trips. Insurance companies would have to cover this so cars would probobly be group owned.
joe on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 8:02 am
The problem is that cars now are so easy to use, its there when YOU want it, no advanced booking needed, instant mobility. They have solve that before they will succeed.
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 8:10 am
When I can buy a autonomous car – where I have access to the programming and electronics – So I can verify there are no “features” I do not want and I can buy it for about
3000$ – then I am getting it…
Until then I will wait. Probably forever…
Never say never. This is copy of a recent post of mine:
The electric car is the next PC.
http://www.trouw.nl/tr/nl/4332/Groen/article/detail/4452330/2017/01/24/Elektrische-auto-wordt-de-pc-van-de-komende-jaren.dhtml
The Chinese are already able to produce a small electric vehicle for 4500 euro.
When I bought my first “IBM-compatible PC” (a Philips) in 1985 the price was 4500 guilders (that’s 4500 euro now).
It ain’t sexy but will bring you from A to B:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4pqj6Ot-Tk
Electro-motors are FAR, FAR simpler than combustion engines, that’s why this spectacular price decrease is possible in the first place. The electromotor is almost maintenance free and lasts much, much longer than that condensed package of violence known as the combustion motor.
In China they have 500,000 of them now driving around.
The latest development is the LSEV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuO9lqgsJc0
Speed: 60 kmh (40 mph). There are meanwhile hundred very local companies producing them.
If you have an electric vehicle, the cost to upgrade it to become self-driven, isn’t that high (software, sensors, accurate Galileo-GPS).
Davy on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 8:52 am
Driverless cars are a product of affluence. We are in a steady and increasing period of stagflation. Stagflation can be characterized by lower economic activity and increasing costs which combine to lower affluence. This was cyclical in the past but now it is a process of decline that will not end until we are more sustainable civilization. That gives you a glimpse of where driverless cars are going.
dooma on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 9:09 am
Remember that slogan “a car is probably the second biggest financial decision you will make”?
Well, in the new middle America, it is now the biggest. And most can’t even qualify for that without financial trickery.
What a sad world when you cannot even get high finance on such a highly depreciating asset.
John Kintree on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 10:01 am
What would be an acceptable typical time to wait for a self-driving car to arrive at your door after you called for a ride, maybe three minutes? If you called several minutes before you were ready to leave, the wait time might be near zero minutes.
Think about the other end of the trip. If you drive your own car, you have to find a parking place at the destination. How far might you have to park from the entrance of the destination? The self-driving car will take you right to the door.
It might turn out that the shared, self-driving car will be more convenient, as well as less expensive, than the personally owned car.
paulo1 on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 10:13 am
What Davy said, and:
I researched simple cell phone jammers the other day. For less than $300 you can ensure you have a cell phone free dining experience. It works anywhere, even grocery stores!
You can’t tell me people won’t develop driverless car interference devices, if for no other reason than shits and giggles. Where I live I think people would hunt them. 🙂
antaris on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 10:14 am
John. I think I have heard of something like this before. It’s a Taxi cab driven by a self-thinking human.
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 10:33 am
Driverless cars are a product of affluence.
Only if you own one. The idea of a driver-less car is to NOT own one, but occasionally order one via your phone, eliminating the cost of car ownership.
Jerry McManus on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 10:34 am
This article has got to take the cake for being utterly devoid of anything resembling a clue.
So what if no one can afford driverless cars?!?
That is so far besides the point it might as well be on another planet.
Nothing is going to stop driverless trucks and driverless taxis because that will eliminate labor costs and send productivity through the roof. Robots don’t need to eat, sleep, take dumps. They don’t get sick or horny either. Well, at least not much anyway.
What about those millions of jobs going up in smoke overnight? Fuck ’em. They can flip burgers for a living.
Oh, wait…, those jobs are being automated as well. Guess we’ll have to put all those useless eaters on a one way rocket to Mars.
Hawkcreek on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 10:34 am
After TPTB realize that any bad guy could load up any self driving car or heavy truck with a big boom maker addressed to somewhere like 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, the real restrictions will start to go into effect. No one without security clearance will be able to ride in an autonomous vehicle.
So I don’t believe we will see that future come to pass very soon.
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:00 am
So I don’t believe we will see that future come to pass very soon.
In the Netherlands it could be between 2020-2025.
http://www.hnwb.nl/wanneer-komt-de-zelfrijdende-auto/
peakyeast on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:01 am
@Cloggie: The problem I think will be government regulation that will prohibit any changes to the approved software. China is good in this respect. But Denmark wants to regulate exactly how you wipe your own bottom and everything else also.
But I do not want a car where a robber can just stand in front of the car and then serve me on a plate. At least I want a “screw it – and drive over/through the obstacle button”.
Wm-scott on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:05 am
A true driverless car is a piped ream. The tech doesn’the exist and will not for decades. Current self driving cars are self driving in name only since they still require a driver to take control at times. The current and foreseeable tech will only allow self driving cars to be operated in controlled environments. The freeway system is one such environment, no pedestrians or children chasing balls out into traffic. Local driving is a very dangerous and poorly controlled environment with many drivers disregarding traffic rules altogether. Things are so bad on my morning commute, I wish I could retire early and have everything delivered by someone younger and braver with better reflexes, or just better insurance. Mr. Robot wouldn’t have a prayer with all those crazy humans out there on the roadways. Remember who would get sued when Mr. Robot runs over someone’s kid. Direct corporate liability, each lawsuit will be well over a 100,000,000. That angle alone makes a true driverless car on uncontrolled roads a complete impossibility.
Apneaman on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:21 am
I can’t wait for driverless vaginas. It’s gonna totally revolutionize fucking.
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:32 am
There is another layer of fraud, about car sales.
They import the buyers. The Trump voter already has
a car or two, and does not need more. so they bring in
another shipment of ‘undocumented immigrants’,
put em on welfare checks, and send em to the
new car dealer.
I don’t want any driverless car. The rich have all the
money and they can’t think of anything sensible
to spend their billions on. So they spend it on stupid
projects like driverless cars, and drones that deliver
packages.
If I had a billion bucks, I would build a replica Titanic.
Sell Atlantic crossing tickets on it.
antaris on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:33 am
I bet laid off taxi drivers could have some fun with self driving cars.
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:34 am
He, the sofa fucker crawled from under a stone. The latest stunt is that he will post under your account name (Nony and mine). That’s not freedom of speech, that’s corrupting a forum.
Twocats on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:34 am
I didn’t read every comment but I give kin tree and clogs this argument so far. Especially in dense cities and countries like sf and denmark where owning a car isn’t just cost prohibitive but convenience prohibitive. Parking parking parking !!! And traffic jams would be a lot less annoying if you can be having a conversation or surfing Internet etc commenting on peakoil.com etc.
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:35 am
But I do not want a car where a robber can just stand in front of the car and then serve me on a plate. At least I want a “screw it – and drive over/through the obstacle button”.
Perhaps you won’t be asked too many questions. Take it or leave it. It’s coming everywhere.
Twocats on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:38 am
Though wm Scott’s point about the chaos of our current city streets is a good counter as ironic as it is. If only we could get rid of those pesky humans the robots would do just fine!!
antaris on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:39 am
Don’t you guys have Car2go, Evo Car Share or Modo? Walk up , get in and drive away, then park in a designated spot or any city stall and walk away.
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:43 am
I bought a 1992 Toyota Corolla wagon, in 1992.
5-speed with a tachometer and crank windows.
Perfect car, versatile, highly reliable, sturdy, zippy,
fantastic gas mileage. The whole car cost $10,500 brand new.
They have nothing like that for sale anymore. If they did,
I would buy it immediately. Why don’t they start selling
1992 Toyota Corollas again, and stop the crap about
driverless cars.
Apneaman on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:44 am
Hey little dried up old dutch faggot. I don’t hide behind fake accounts – not my style. If I got something to say I say it. Funny you should mention nony since he’s the biggest sock-puppet there has ever been on this site.
Apneaman on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 11:48 am
clog is hoping for a driverless sphincter (male only).
brent on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 12:08 pm
Yeah with increasing climate change causing huge sink holes I am sure drivelers cars will be able to avoid them with their digital instincts. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExI4OYUBJDg
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 12:13 pm
I don’t hide behind fake accounts – not my style.
I was talking about posting under my and Nony’s name, you stinking liar, you’ll corrupt anything by just looking at it.
Probably got an unforgettable time when you were in prison. Bubba can be quite unforgiving when confronted with rapist like you. Trash like you has very low status in Anglo jail hell holes. You must be talking from years of experience being roughed up.
peakyeast on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 12:24 pm
@Cloggie: You are a fast learner I can see. But I think Apeman is also a good teacher.. :-p
penury on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 12:48 pm
I fear that my opinion is:So What? As I look around during travels I see a lot of decay, Closed stores, empty houses, car lots full of unsold vehicles both new and used/ homeless camps, unemployment , not the reported kind, but real unemployed people. EBT card usage continuing to increase, read about the IRS being forced to slow tax refunds because of shortage of funds, problems funding programs for the poor, Medicaid is being considered for cuts also Medicare and SS, the largest pension plans in the country are underfunded by Trillions. Etcetera etcetera who gives a furry rodents rear about EVs?
Apneaman on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 1:45 pm
clogqueer,I just told you I don’t use fake names. How fucking stupid are you?????
Your the low down scum fuck liar. In fact you are so low I bet you would stick your cock up your pregnant mothers ass and fuck your unborn sister.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 1:56 pm
Let me keep my electric bicycles and I will be happy. I don’t see self driving cars solving any of the problems we face. How would they help with overpopulation, pollution or environmental destruction? We don’t need more stupid toys.
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 2:22 pm
In fact you are so low I bet you would stick your cock up your pregnant mothers ass and fuck your unborn sister.
This is exactly the style with which you posted under Nony and my name.
The signature of a ruined individual, an NWO monster, who routinely watches porn, identifies via his nick to sexual perversion, refers to perverse sex in every second post, no doubt tatoos all over. Innerly total despair, spleen and nihilism. Needs this cc hysteria to take revenge against the world. Favors mass migration out of lust to destroy his country.
.5mt on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 2:58 pm
I see the famous kook-oil collegiality is being maintained.
makati1 on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 4:18 pm
This has got to be the techies super wet dream, right after cheap, plentiful fusion energy. Driverless cars? Hell, we’ve had them for ages. We call them drunk drivers where I come from.
As has been said above, WHO, in our declining economy, is going to be able to buy them? Waiters, dog walkers and bartenders? The 100+ million unemployed in the U$? The bankrupt Europeans? The bankrupt Japanese? LMAO
onlooker on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 4:29 pm
Yep this goes in the same file as fusion energy, perpetual motion machines, the fountain of youth and Santa Claus hehe
Anonymous on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 5:03 pm
Article gets it exactly right. Driverless cars, are about manufacturing wants (not needs). We are more of capable of producing everything we ‘need’ now, and then some. Of course, we have a small problem with distributing wealth equitably, but Im sure someone will invent a robot that will distribute wealth fairly too, right cloggie…right?
Driverless cars, even if they ‘worked’ (at least the way their proponents pimp them), do not fill any ‘need’ society needs satisfied.
Here is something you are likely to never hear (unless you work at Google’s robo-car division or Tesla lol)
“Gee If we only had an autonomous driverless car right now, all our problems would be solved”.
Ive never heard anyone I know, personally wish, or ask for, robo-cars on demand. Ive never heard a city planner, a mayor, an engineer, or friend. anyone, ever suggest or imply they would be needed or wanted. Nor have I seen any robocar proponents offer up ANY credible evidence that any of their purported ‘benefits’, will ever materialize.
And no, your clown-car arguments don’t count clogged arteries. But if you want to hop into one and have it drive you into the english channel, or the north sea, go for it.
Sissyfuss on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 6:38 pm
We have a carnival barker for a president so along come the various acts of entertainment, such as driverless cars, cold fusion, and abiotic oil. The audience clamors for more and can’t wait for the next act. Unfortunately it may bring down the house.
sidzepp on Sun, 19th Feb 2017 9:22 pm
CSpan the other morning had half a dozen or so executives from various corporations that were investing in driverless car technology. Whether it is a technology that will work in the future remains to be seen, but these executives and the Congressional yes men asking the questions, there was excitement in the hearing room.
The bottom line is just that. If corporations can find ways to eliminate workers and improve the bottom line they will invest heavily into promising or whimsical fantasies to improve that bottom line.
Cloggie on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 12:27 am
Driverless cars are a leftist conspiracy to feminize men and assist the negoids in taking over holland. The leftist cabal plans to use driverless cars to transport Iliad refugees from Syria to Germany and drop them off at the welfare office. The cars will also have English education lessons playing on the car stereo that teaches the passengers how to apply for welfare and get all the white mans money. It is part of the un agenda to take all the money from the people who earned it and give it to the bums.
Cloggie on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:00 am
The previous post was from forum saboteur Friday.
Back on topic:
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/20/mobileye-collision-avoidance-tech-installed-4500-rideshare-vehicles-new-york-city/
Stepping stone towards self-driving car: collision avoiding technology installed in 4500 “rideshare” vehicles.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/19/gm-lyft-toyota-pushing-national-self-driving-vehicle-regulation-standardization/
Car majors pushing for national regulation promoting self-driving car, for which the technology already exists. In doing so, the manufactures are digging their own graves because they are preparing for a world with much less cars, because the existing publicly/company owned car fleet will deliver the same transportation performance with much less cars.
But then who cares about the survival of car majors.
Brave new world of the future: all low-skilled work phased out by manufacturing robots, where the commoners are at home with a government provided basic income, playing computer games and shoveling in the community gardens. Shops no longer exist as the shop owners will refuse to function as an unpaid showcase for products that will be ordered online anyway. The most right-wing white people on the planet, I mean taxi-drivers (because they most intensively meet the real world) will seize to exist.
Glaring market niche: meaning providers, religious people with an explanation on offer.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/17/70-trump-voters-want-clean-energy-make-america-great/
70% deplorables want Trump to use clean energy as part of his “MAGA” agenda.
TheNationalist on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 7:25 am
Many of the impoverished young don’t fall for the same traps, perhaps they have listened to the wise old cloggies of this world. Meanwhile, here in Australia the “government” is trying to promote”clean coal”. This is up there with “clean diesel” and we all know about that fake news.
joe on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 9:33 am
Cloggie, this is not a forum, this is an unmoderated news comment area, maybe one of the last on the net. Lonely old cudgels like you hog the place and make sure it’s not worth making comments. Guys like you are the reason the mainstream sites have gone register only.
Cloggie on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 9:48 am
joe, with most people here I have polite discussions. Why not address your colonial asset Friday, who poisons this forum with vulgar language and now even goes as far to practice identity theft?
Oh wait, you do that BECAUSE he is your colonial asset. And of course because we don’t like each other too much.
Furthermore, peak oil is no longer a main stream topic any more, perhaps it will be again in 2030. This site should be glad that there is still a vigorous debate for no other reason that this site posts general articles (like from Kunstler) which prompts the most interesting “free style” debates.
indigo on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 10:48 am
Retired and early 60’s, in the UK,.. I enjoy driving, and I’d be reluctant to give it up, but several things could get me to migrate to a smaller vehicle, whilst hiring a driverless for some occasions.
I agree with many comments here, but suppose we shift our thinking from a driverless car to a driverless flat-bed truck, or a driverless mini van or driverless 16 seater coach.?
I would still own and drive a few thousand miles per year simply for the pleasure of driving, but how might we modify our driving/driverless habit, for such as……:
1. How many people own a pick up truck, for those odd occasions when they pick up some 4′ x 8′ ply from a diy store. What if you can hire a driverless flat-bed truck simply for the odd occasions where you actually need it.
2. The thing that gets people over a certain age off the road is the high cost of drivers insurance. Drivers insurance is a legal requirement, but if it is a prohibitive cost on your wallet, then your self driving days are numbered. I can forsee a day when the desire to drive will be an ‘indulgence’ that will cost you insurance premiums, many multiple times the cost of today.
3. You want to go out with a group of friends, enjoy a meal, enjoy a drink, then one of you has to be the ‘nominated driver’, and stay sober.? Not so if you hire a 16 seater driverless minibus that will pick you all up, and take you all safely home.
4. You have some items that need clearing out of the garage, and they dont fit in your prius, or nissan. A driverless van, will do the trick, and your neighbour, might share the cost and van space to take you to the local refuse tip and back.
Maybe its not about driving or driverless,… but more about subtle, incremental shifts in social attitude.?
By way of example,.. I like to cook, and I like to eat out. Both [to me], are pleasurable but the thought of slaving over a hot stove, and the dirty dishes, sometimes ‘encourage’, the occasional choice of eating out.
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 11:18 am
clog, you flatter yourself thinking I would go to all the trouble of making up a new account to embarrass the likes of you. You don’t need any help as far as I’m concerned. I think many on here despise you and are tired of your early stage Alzheimer ramblings of a stupid pan german paradise and your kindergarten climate, peak oil, denial. Anything that would challenge your fantasy really-
“It’s not true!… (foot stomp) “NO NO NO!… (foot stomp) I’m not listening (foot stomp)….MOMMY!!! I want my MOMMY!!!”.
I guess it’s true what they say about infancy and old age – you start out life clueless, babbling and shitting yourself and if you live long enough you end life clueless, babbling and shitting yourself.
Don’t forget to put on your depends old man.