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Page added on September 15, 2014
Despite Decline in Some Regions, World Oil Consumption Still Seen Rising
The largest potential for growth in demand for liquid fuels lies in the emerging economies of China, India, and countries in the Middle East, according to EIA’s recently released International Energy Outlook 2014 (IEO2014). In the Reference case projection, world liquid fuels consumption increases 38% from 87 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in 2010 to 119 MMbbl/d in 2040. China, India, and other developing countries in Asia account for 72% of the net world increase in liquid fuels consumption, with Middle East consumers accounting for another 13%. Most liquid fuel demand is for industrial uses and transportation.
In the United States, Europe, Japan, and other mature industrialized economies, liquid fuel demand has leveled off and is projected to slowly decline. The combined effects of several factors have slowed or even reversed the growth in liquid fuels use. These factors include sustained high oil prices, efficiency standards for vehicles and equipment together with high taxation of motor fuels, price-driven fuel switching towards non-oil fuels outside of transportation, vehicle saturation, as well as structural changes in factors such as demographics and consumer behavior.
IEO2014 projects that 33 MMbbl/d of additional liquid fuel supply will be needed in 2040 compared to 2010 to satisfy growing demand for liquid fuels. The Reference case assumes that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers invest in incremental production capacity that enables them to increase crude and lease condensate production by 14 MMbbl/d from 2010 to 2040 and that OPEC crude and lease condensate producers maintain a share of between 40% and 45% of total world liquid fuels production throughout the projection. The Middle East OPEC member countries alone account for 90% of the total growth in projected OPEC crude and lease condensate production.
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production is projected to increase by 10 MMbbl/d between 2010 and 2040. Much of this production is projected to come from areas previously considered uneconomical, as a combination of technological improvements and rising world oil prices attract additional investment. In addition, oil from tight and shale resources will help to meet growing demand. Compared to previous reports, IEO2014 incorporates larger new supplies of tight oil from the United States and Canada; but other countries as well, including Mexico, Russia, Argentina, and China, begin producing substantial volumes of tight oil in the IEO2014 Reference case.
Other liquid resources—including natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids—currently supply a relatively small portion of total world petroleum and other liquid fuels, accounting for about 14% of the total in 2010. However, they are expected to grow in importance, rising to 17% of the world’s total liquids supply in 2040.
In addition to the Reference case, the IEO2014 includes scenarios for low and high oil prices. The three price cases examine a range of potential interactions of supply, demand, and prices in world liquids markets. For additional information, see the full report.
10 Comments on "Despite Decline in Some Regions, World Oil Consumption Still Seen Rising"
Plantagenet on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 12:13 pm
The Obama administration continues to promote the idea that the US can stick with oil and gas. They project even HIGHER oil consumption 10 years from now, and oil at near current levels 25 years from now.
Somebody —quick—-please explain peak oil to the current administration.
paulo1 on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 12:15 pm
re: “as well as structural changes in factors such as demographics and consumer behavior.”
This has been demonstrated by many who drive less and have purchased efficient vehicles, etc. Now, if it would translate into limiting purchases and an awareness of product origins it could only help. My wife and I always try and buy Canadian first, North American if that is not possible, and then Mexico if all else fails. However, it is damn hard to avoid Chinese products for the most part.
One thing I have noticed is how much less we buy as we age. “Will we really use it enough to justify purchase” and “do we need it at all” are two questions we always ask before buying stuff. This also applies to using the car or truck. We have really cut back on fuel use and buying things over the last 3-4 years.
Paulo
Bob Owens on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 4:48 pm
In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.
Yogi Berra
Predicting fuel consumption, production out to 2040 is a fool’s errand. We probably won’t recognize the world by 2020 (or next week, maybe).
peakyeast on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 6:06 pm
It is SO comforting to know EIA are sure that fossil fuels becomes more and more abundant as time goes by.
They certainly seem to know something not many others do…
Perhaps its abiotic oil?
Perhaps they know a way to convert rock into oil?
Perhaps they found oil on the moon?
Perhaps they found a way of turning their own BS into oil?
Kenz300 on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 6:22 pm
China has had a come to Jesus moment this past year with dealing with their air pollution problems.
In the past few years China has accelerated their interest in all alternative energy sources . This past year they increased their planned targets for wind, solar and biofuels even more.
Most recently they are beginning to focus on their coal consumption problems. Coal is a big contributor to the pollution problems.
They are also aware of their oil imports and have begun a push to electric vehicles. If they are successful it will jump start the worlds transition to electric transportation.
China’s energy consumption patterns are changing….
shortonoil on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 7:10 pm
t is amazing that an organization as huge, as mature, and as well funded as the EIA can’t do a simple thermodynamic analysis that even a junior engineering student should be able to perform. It is almost as though they have been snared in a web of their own deception. Are they one of the leading proponents of society, or just an over paid batch of bureaucrats following along with the rest of the herd? It is startling how far we have descended, and yet we have just begun our journey!
Makati1 on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 9:35 pm
shortonoil, “well funded” hit the bulls-eye.
E.I.A.= Energy Information Administration – EIA – Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government.
You don’t actually believe that an arm of the Ministry of Propaganda would present reality in this time and place do you? No other branch or government department even comes close to reality.
GregT on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 11:09 pm
Makati,
At this point in time, it is all a game of confidence. If the US ‘government’ told the truth, the game would already be up. So in that respect, I suppose they are doing the right thing, for right now.
The sad reality of the matter is, however, they are doing little to nothing to plan for the future, other than continuing down the same old path of military domination. Unfortunately, many of the key players in the global domination game, are more than able to take care of themselves militarily.
It would seem to me that diplomacy and cooperation would be a much better option, but when all you are used to using is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
shortonoil on Tue, 16th Sep 2014 8:02 am
“At this point in time, it is all a game of confidence. If the US ‘government’ told the truth, the game would already be up.”
Instead they are instituting their three major plans: steal the oil: fake the oil, and lie about the oil. Since there isn’t any oil, there isn’t much hope that any of them will work. The only possible hope to maintain a coherent civilization appears to be massive de-centralization. De-centralization would turn the US government into an anachronism. The possible outcomes doesn’t leave one with a warm fuzzy feeling!
Davy on Tue, 16th Sep 2014 9:17 am
“Instead they are instituting their three major plans: steal the oil: fake the oil, and lie about the oil.” Pretty serious words Short and they point to desperation. Yet, this is really a global affair with most other large economies and governments also involved with their versions of this propaganda of desperation. In all these other power centers we see the manipulation and corruption of the normal political and market processes. Capitalism and representative democracy is dead. The new normal is an alliance of the political, industrial, and administrative elements along with the military in what can only be called a racket. This racket is practicing parasitic wealth transfer and triage of whole segments of society. It is being done with stealth and outright disregard for the rule of law through the manipulation of the law. With all the big money, connections, and shrinking pie we see a society of privilege forming. This is global but also split into groups within the global. They do not always agree and work together but eventually the common purpose of power concentration and control is everyone’s common MO. At this point in the game I am not sure how bad this is. It will buy us a few years because these folks will maintain their power until the bitter end. The end is near for all of us them included but 3 to 5 years in this stage of the game is critical for preparations at the bottom up level with individuals, families, and communities. The whole situational awareness is coalescing of a Mega Predicament that will bring down our current global system. People are talking and beginning the prep process. If we want some civilization to survive these sprouting seeds of preparation efforts need time, education, and finally resources. All these important variables rest upon a relatively stable BAU continuing. It is a paradox that BAU is needed for un-BAU activities but this is the case. We just can’t cut the cord yet without many important efforts failing. So, let us not dwell too much on the crimes of absolute power we see at the top but realize we need time and paradoxically these criminals are giving us much needed time.