Peak Oil is You
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Page added on September 16, 2018
Could Oil Demand Peak in Just Five Years?
The Era of Oil is coming to a close but experts and corporate analysts disagree about just when that will happen.
The time left before global demand for crude peaks is increasingly tightening, according to new projections from industry analysts. Two reports published this week point to an end of oil’s growth within the next five years, far earlier than many in the industry are expecting.
Though most forecasts of oil’s demise project a long tail, the estimates put increased pressure on big oil companies to clarify how they intend to confront a looming energy transition.
Demand for fossil fuels will peak around 2023, as increasingly cost-competitive solar and wind are buoyed by supportive government policies to displace growth in oil, coal and natural gas, according to an analysis by London-based think tank the Carbon Tracker Initiative.
“It’s not a scenario; it’s just obvious,” said Kingsmill Bond, new energy strategist and author of the Carbon Tracker report.
Norwegian risk-management company DNV GL takes a similar view in an analysis released in London on Monday. It predicts oil demand will max out in five years’ time, making way for renewables to dominate an increasingly electrified and efficient energy system.
“The transition is undeniable,” said DNV CEO Remi Eriksen.
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The aggressive forecasts add to a raging debate among energy executives and analysts over what the coming decades may hold for the industry. Mainstream views have shifted from a decade ago, when many fretted over the prospect that oil supply could run out. Now, global ambitions to curb global warming, coupled with cheaper and better renewable technologies, are pressuring assumptions about long-term demand.
Investors are increasingly sitting up and taking notice, demanding big oil companies outline how resilient their businesses are to an energy transition. While the industry unsurprisingly has a more bullish outlook on the commodity, even some big oil companies acknowledge a tipping point may be coming sooner than previously anticipated.
Earlier this year, BP PLC said the world’s appetite for oil could plateau and then begin to decline between 2035 and 2040, acknowledging that renewables like solar power are growing faster than expected. Previously, the company had said crude demand would keep growing into the 2040s. Royal Dutch Shell PLC has said if serious global action is taken to combat global warming, consumption could peak by the mid-2020s. Both companies look at a range of scenarios when planning their strategies and don’t treat such numbers as forecasts.
“As an industry we will have to deal with radical uncertainty on a scale which we have not experienced before,” Shell CEO Ben van Beurden told an industry conference in March. “We ignore that at our peril.”
The International Energy Agency—whose outlooks are often used as an industry benchmark—has also published scenarios in which oil consumption peaks in the 2020s on the basis of aggressive climate action. But its central assumption is still that oil demand will continue to grow into the 2040s. That is also the view of U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp.
“The oil companies and the IEA think we have decades to go,” Carbon Tracker’s Mr. Bond said. “This is a real turning point…[and] it’s jolly soon.”
11 Comments on "Could Oil Demand Peak in Just Five Years?"
Sissyfuss on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 8:28 am
By the time an environmental wake-up call blasts into our consciousness it will be too late to make the necessary alterations to our BAU. Such as when the oceans that have been absorbing 97% of the CO2 and its corresponding excessive heat begin exhaling that heat back into the atmosphere. Right now that heat is supercharging the ferocity of hurricanes but when it begins to escape it will ramp up ambient temps and the concomitant humidity to levels inhospitable to the populace. Woe it is to be young today.
twocats on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 8:36 am
we’ve seen articles on this carbon tracker and Mr. Bond. Mr. Bond used to be with Citigroup and part of the Russian Analyst group.
I’m not exactly sure what is going on, but one possible theory is that Russia has a vested interest in pushing the global transition to renewables. Seems counter-intuitive, unless you can artificially raise the price of oil & gas as a deterrent to its use. Basically, Russia would get PAID to experience peak oil.
onlooker on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 8:45 am
Yes, Sissy all this economic talk is the ultimate irony. 7 plus billion of us rapacious primates with modern technology is fast depleting and degrading the life support systems of this planet. All this talk of green energy and living is one big joke before this Reality.
print baby print on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 12:14 pm
Yes it can because there is no oil enough to satisfied our crazy demand
Peak demand hahahhaha PEAK SUPPLY
Cloggie on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 1:02 pm
The world’s first hydrogen-fuelcell train operational in Lower-Saxony, Germany, starting tomorrow for a one-and-a-half test period:
http://www.spiegel.de/reise/aktuell/niedersachsen-erster-wasserstoffzug-nimmt-betrieb-auf-a-1228365.html
Manufacturer: Alstom of France.
Hydrogen tank and fuel cell on the roof.
Maximum speed 140 kmh
Range: 1,000 km
Yabut…. without fossil fuel we can’t have heavy transport!!!???
Yes, we can!
(thanks Barry for the phrase)
Cloggie on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 1:14 pm
In Europe it is 90% but in the US the renewable share in new power production capacity has meanwhile arrived at an encouraging 43-49%:
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/16/renewables-43-of-new-power-capacity-in-usa-in-1st-half-of-2018/
Davy on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 1:18 pm
Yabut…. without fossil fuel we can’t have heavy transport!!!???
Yabut, do you have some cost numbers?
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 6:39 pm
Just who are these fruitcakes who
keep referring to “peak oil demand”.
There IS NO PEAK OIL DEMAND.
However, there will be a PEAK OIL SUPPLY.
I presume this horse shit words like
“Peak Oil Demand”
comes from the same scumbags who
spin phrases together like ‘undocumented
immigrants’ in order to help the democrat
party while masquerading as a news agency,
i.e. CNN .
One thing very good about Trump in the White
House, is he loudly explains that the
alphabet networks are a bunch of lying
swindling shills who work for Hillary
and the democrat party.
And in the end, its all what we can
call “Fake News”.
This “Peak Oil Demand” is just more
vicious pathological crap terminology,
from the lying democrat freaks at CNN.
Vote republican in November.
No blue wave. Keep kicking the
democrats and the Hillaries in the teeth.
Push them down a flight of stairs.
Until they grow up.
P.S.
Kavanaugh for Supreme Court.
Cloggie on Sun, 16th Sep 2018 11:41 pm
“Yabut, do you have some cost numbers?”
Too lazy to do a little Googling yourself, eh?
https://www.engadget.com/2018/05/25/hydrogen-train-of-the-future/
“Diesel trains have been used for the better part of a century on pretty much every railway of note because they’re very cheap. Moves to add electric power to railway lines have taken place, but it’s hugely expensive: Alstom puts the figure at €1.2 million per 1 km, or $1.4 million per 0.6 miles. ”
“Battery-electric trains, too, are out of the question, thanks to the sheer size, weight and cost of a battery that could run for 1,000 km on a charge. Hydrogen as a fuel, on the other hand, behaves pretty much like diesel, has a much higher energy density and it only takes 15 minutes to refuel a tank.”
“From the outside, you certainly wouldn’t have guessed that the Coradia iLint is a hydrogen train, looking just like its diesel-powered predecessor. But when it rolls up to approach you, you’ll notice how deathly quiet it is: Aside from a little whine from the engine, you’ll barely hear it. ”
“It’s obvious that diesel will die,” said Alstom’s German chief, Dr. Jörg Nikutta “and with batteries you could go, say, 50 km.” Those looking to travel any further, as most rail passengers do, will find that hydrogen is the only option. Dr. Nikutta added that rail operators should find a hydrogen train doesn’t cost that much more compared to the equivalent diesel train”
“Since the new model is, essentially, an FCEV in train form, its fuel and maintenance costs are significantly less than existing models. The iLint has a modular design, making it easier to swap out parts should they fail in the future. When all of these factors are taken into account, the train, while pricier initially, will, according to Dr. Nikutta “break even within the first ten years.””
“Nikutta added that while a diesel train would generate 1.2MW of power, the iLint only requires 50 percent of that. Thanks to the better torque offered by an electric motor, the energy needs of the train are sliced in half. ”
“The hydrogen train is coming, and you’ll see plenty more of them popping up in Germany over the next few years. Alstom has signed deals with a number of operators in the country, which will see it building 60 trains over the next five years, with more coming in the future.”
“And the UK is also likely to go big on hydrogen in the near future, since it, too, cannot afford to electrify its wider rail network. One train company, Abellio Greater Anglia, has agreed to hand over a number of its soon-to-be-retired Class 321 commuter trains. These vehicles, originally built in the late ’80s, will be refurbished as hydrogen trains and returned to the UK.”
Britain is swapping to hydrogen trains as well:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/05/14/french-train-giant-alstom-set-make-uks-first-hydrogen-fleet/
And it should be obvious to even the greatest defeatist dummy that if hydrogen works for trains, it will work for trucks and shipping as well.
Century
17th Holland wind
19th UK coal
20th US oil
21st EU renewable
Jaz on Mon, 17th Sep 2018 3:15 am
Global vehicle sales are now 100 million units.
http://www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/
This does include motorbikes, mopeds and diesel engines for things like generators and irrigation.
In order for oil consumption to peak the world would have to be producing 50 million electric cars. Aviation and marine transport would have to remain flat.
Not likely.
Jaz on Mon, 17th Sep 2018 3:21 am
These are the figures for aviation.
Aviation is consuming more and more fuel as passenger numbers grow.
More than 4 billion passenger fares sold,compared with 2 billion in 2004.
https://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_figures/fact_sheets/Documents/fact-sheet-industry-facts.pdf