Chris Martenson: “Oil’s not cheap anymore, and it will never be cheap again”

33 Comments on "Chris Martenson: “Oil’s not cheap anymore, and it will never be cheap again”"

J-Gav on Fri, 11th Apr 2014 10:18 pm 



Martenson’s a clever guy and has plenty of interesting things to say.

However, while I largely agree with his assessment of the quandary we’re in, I don’t share his optimism about gold. He and the interviewer both seem to think it’s price not manipulated (or not enough to matter. Its value , just as the value of silver, has always been manipulated – that was the foundation of the House Of Morgan for Cripe sake! And if too many ‘ordinary’ people have a store of it, it will simply be confiscated one day at rock-bottom prices, just like in 1934.

ghung on Fri, 11th Apr 2014 11:38 pm 



@J-Gav – Yeah, I’ve always enjoyed Martenson and think his ‘Crash Course’ is still a pretty good (if somewhat simplistic) primer for the uninitiated. That said, he’s a salesman, and believes he can promote gold in good conscience.

I see owning physical gold in small quantities as part of a much larger tool kit. Gold can be bought and sold incrementally and with discretion, which is the only way I would do it these days. Then there’s silver…..

Trent on Fri, 11th Apr 2014 11:40 pm 



Yeah….they are just trying to sell us stuff…way to go J-Gav

ghung on Fri, 11th Apr 2014 11:49 pm 



Trent: “Yeah….they are just trying to sell us stuff…”

So? A lot of folks are trying to sell me things. Some of it is even worth considering. At least he isn’t selling shale plays.

GregT on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 12:28 am 



No matter what happens, gold will always be gold, silver will always be silver, and paper will eventually rot.

DMyers on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 12:35 am 



J-Gav, you make a good case on gold. Perhaps, there is simply no hedge. I don’t see how gold could be secured, if events were to take off on the trajectory we are contemplating.

I’m not pro or anti gold. Taking the pro side, I can see there is a dearth of possible harbors for wealth. Financial investments are destined to be a toilet flush, possibly after having been used in the toileting process. Gold is a historical store of value, the argument goes. Real estate is another possible store of value, with similar historical precedents, at least in the modern era.

But both land and gold are subject to seizure by tyrants, who also desire their value securing properties. In the current context, there is also a huge capital gains tax that could be levied on these assets, as their value would rise in a hyper inflationary circumstance. The owner would be taxed on nominal increased value, although the real value would be unchanged. Confiscation of wealth can, and will, take many forms.

Martenson makes a good case on energy and money. His focus on the exponential function is effective in bringing the possibility of extreme acceleration into the discussion. That acceleration is a mathematical certainty, wherever compound growth is present, and evolution has not prepared us to withstand it, unharmed.

Makati1 on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 1:31 am 



Gold is and has been the store of wealth of choice. It’s portable, small, eternal (doesn’t corrode/rust), and recognized everywhere. And yes, the West has manipulated it’s cost down to keep the game going a bit longer. That has been a plus for the East where the flow of gold is becoming a torrent into Asia. The 5,000+ year old civilizations have always valued it as a reserve of wealth.

That said, yes, the US has confiscated gold in the past. Not sure it is possible now. But, only if they know you have it. And only if you sell it before the crash will they be able to tax it. After, it will be a good barter item when the recovery is in progress and people have excess to trade and do not need to worry about food, shelter, etc.

Personally, I do not have any gold and do not need to worry much about ‘after’. I’m still building my survival resources with my income. If I reach the point that I feel secure enough and still have money to spend, THEN I may buy a few 1/10 oz gold coins. Or at least some small silver ones.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 1:39 am 



Gold is part of my survival tool kit. I don’t value it as an investment. I accept it may be confiscated. I buy 1/10 oz’s and do it discretely. Yet, there are many other ways to invest in physical value like land, high quality post carbon equipment, and guns/ammo. There are many other options like in my case cattle. Gold should be a leg in your survival portfolio.

Dave Thompson on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 1:43 am 



If the choice is food or gold, I don’t care how much gold you have, you will starve.

GregT on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 1:57 am 



Dave,

If you have some gold, I might be able to spare you some food. Zimbabwe is a good present case in point.

A well rounded portfolio should also include brass, powder, lead, and good neighbours.

Of course, food and water are paramount.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 2:11 am 



I have $10K in long shelf life food also.

GregT on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 2:32 am 



Davy,

The 1/10 oz’s are a very good idea. I’ve been seriously thinking about trading for them and paying the premium. Just added to my ‘to do list’.

DC on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 2:47 am 



Im still kind of bullish on cows myself.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 2:51 am 



Yea, I traded out my 1 oz gold for 1/10 oz. Any gold I buy now I buy 1/10ths. You take a hit on value but you have a much more versatile tool in a crisis situation. I want to also mention having gold you must have a secure place to keep it. If you keep it in a bank box be ready to pull it at the 1st sniff of a crisis or the Gov wanting to confiscate.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 2:54 am 



Can’t go wrong with cattle if you can keep them fed and watered.

DMyers on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 3:15 am 



Makati1 morning defecation statistics.

wt: 15 gms
vol: 500 mls
color: medium brown
texture: smooth/creamy
odor: within expected

I’m telling you, Mak, they know every detail of your morning shit. You think they might not know you have gold?

GregT on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 7:34 am 



Thanks again DC, for the comic relief!

marmico on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 9:13 am 



“Social unrest is merely a sign. It’s a hallmark of what happens when you have an energy health care dependent economy, when we’ve grown our population to absolute bursting limits and we’ve all become accustomed to having lots and lots and lots of cheap energy</strike health care—and guess what? Oil’s</strike health care is not cheap anymore, and it will never be cheap again unless the world economy completely collapses.”

Oil is 4% of the U.S. economy and health care is 17%. Martenson is clever by a quarter.

Makati1 on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 11:19 am 



LOL, DMak, I’m in the Philippines and have not lived in the States since 2008. What I have here, they do not know about. This country is too poor to track such things as gold coin sales. And trips to Hong Kong/Singapore/Etc. are often and easy. No paper/internet trail, no knowledge. Cash is king here as most do not have a credit card or even a bank account. If you are not entering or leaving the US, the security is easy.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 12:29 pm 



Dmeyers, I am glad someone else comments on the smell on this site. Someone needs to lean to wipe their butt before they leave the loo.

simonr on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 12:32 pm 



I have currently no gold, and have a doubt, this being I don’t know the difference between fake and real gold to accept it, so would not be really interested, Silver coins can be relatively easily tested (Silver dollar) and so I am more interested in Silver when the time comes (obviously not for numanistic value).

As for the government, I will claim to have sold under market conditions, so no trace, not sure what happens then though.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 1:09 pm 



Simonr, I have bought from gold dealers on ebay and I have a local guy I trust. I think that is all you can do. I did buy a scale to weigh them also. The big guys on ebay cannot afford a fraudulent transaction. You can find individuals that sell on ebay at a cheaper price but I would rather buy in confidence and pay more.

simonr on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 1:12 pm 



Hi Davy

I get that, but if we are preparing for trading post collapse, I have labour to sell (ploughing etc.) now I would be happy to sell for two silver dollars but how do I know a potential customer is not trying to pass dodgy gold bullion.

There are cheap (non electronic) kits to test silver dollars, I don’t know of anything for gold.

Davey on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 1:33 pm 



Good point. Probably worth while to have the testing material but in a collapse situation test material will run out eventually. I think weighing the gold on a balance scale is good long term. It is difficult to shape the gold and get the weight right if one is counterfeiting

bobinget on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 3:48 pm 



Any opinions on owning shares in legacy (conventional) oil and gas? Before shale came along, there were dividends.

How about infrastructure like all important pipelines?
(best dividends of all, with less guilt)

I got into low income rentals in the 60’s almost by accident. Bought a broken down farmhouse with
so called ‘labor housing’ on the property. For the last fifty-four years I’ve fixed up, rented, sold, bought, fixed up, wash, rinse and repeat.

Farmland or gold coins? If you chose the former, $1,550 worth of diesel or one Krugerrand?

There are two America’s I find. One for one or two percent where tax loop-holes abound, another for wage earners with almost no way around full taxation.

In old age, gold is best bought to adorn ears, necks, of
younger women. (warning: such gold investments don’t
always match past performance)
I’ve found gold jewelry pays a special sort of dividend.

Northwest Resident on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 4:25 pm 



“Oil’s not cheap anymore, and it will never be cheap again”

Something else to contemplate, watching the stock market this past week as it slowly grinds lower. What are the chances that we’ve seen “peak stock prices”. We all know for a fact — or we should — that stock and securities prices have been inflated way beyond their actual value. Now they are slipping back down that slope of accounting tricks, QE and fraud toward their actual value, but they still have a long way to go, especially given the fact that probably a lot of those stocks are in reality worth close to nothing. It used to be that when the stock market took a hit and prices dipped a little or a lot, the conventional wisdom was to just “ride it out”, stay put for the long term because you could ALWAYS count on those stock prices going back up. But here we are today, and a good question is, WILL those stock prices every go up again? My guess is “no”. Well, maybe a little, but only to sink again. Take a good look at the S&P, the NASDAQ and Dow-Jones — chances are very good that they have reached their peak — it is nowhere but down down down from here. Once people catch on to that probably reality, watch out, their could be a stampede of investors looking to cash out before they lose more value, and if that happens, BAU might as well jump off a tall building in one final act of self-determination.

BTW — Gold? You gotta be kidding me. A little gold and silver just in case, that makes sense. But people trying to gather large amounts of gold today in preparation for collapse envision themselves having some kind of “wealth” post-collapse that will enable them to retain their privileged economic status. Post-collapse, if you want to eat, I’ll trade you some potatoes and eggs for something you might have of value, but I doubt that I’ll be interested in gold, and either will most other people. Just my pov…

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 5:18 pm 



Yeap N/R, “GOOD POSSIBILITY” we will see Peak Stocks. You know life cycles, nature cycles, and moon cycles. Markets cycle because human nature cycles. What we have been seeing is artificial life support for the markets. IOW financial repression of natural price discovery which manifests itself in the natural cost of money. The cost of money will cycle up or down depending on the market cycle. When you repress that cycle you get bubbles and distortions. Throw in some corruption, market manipulation, wealth transfer, and disregard for the rule of law and you get a dysfunctional global economy. We are well into this business cycle of a Ponzi scheme debt fueled bubble. Last week we saw a minor correction. It could be a harbinger for things to come. The global central banks have lost the “effect”. You know heroin looses its effectiveness. Users have to keep increasing until bad things happen either slowly with health destruction or quickly through overdose. We will see ugly, nasty, and fear when this situation cycles. When a system is distorted it reacts in a chaotic and dysfunctional ways until it restores equilibrium. It will be interesting to see how things unfold. Just remember as long as the big players can maintain confidence and keep to their pseudo growth policies of wealth transfer and cannibalization of the lower classes this can keep up that is until the house of cards tumbles.

green_achers on Sat, 12th Apr 2014 10:23 pm 



Martenson’s wrong. Oil is cheap. Maybe not as cheap as it once was, but astoundingly cheap compared to what it’s going to be.

simonr on Sun, 13th Apr 2014 6:48 am 



Hi Davey

I would naturally prefer barter you are right … 40 odd bales for a hectare ploughed/seeded etc.

but a silver dollar has set dimensions and a weight, and there are scales and things you can buy on the web to test this (Checkout the silver stackers forum).

Jewellery, I work with a fair few Indians, and the jewellery used is 99.99% gold or silver and the jeweller works it to your requirements, as opposed to the unspecified plated stuff we use.

Meld on Sun, 13th Apr 2014 7:09 am 



Gold is a bad idea, seeing as here is a historical precedent for it being confiscated by .Gov in times of crisis, you wouldn’t even be able to use it if The SHTF for fear of getting handed in by your neighbour.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 13th Apr 2014 12:11 pm 



Simor/Meld, the whole gold deal is complicated for investments, survival tender, and value store. Simor silver is also great. I did some and I just found it occupies too much space for the value. So, if you buy a significant amounts of silver it somewhat binds you to your location. What if you become a refugee or a willing migrant but without a car. In these cases space is a premium. You will have competing needs so lighter the better and bigger bang for the buck. I recommend at least $20K in silver and or gold for your prepper tool kit. Any amount is fine BTW. Gold fits into such a small space it can be carried along easy. For example I have a money belt I can put $4K in 1/10 oz gold in. Now, Meld very good point about confiscation. This is why I caution those that want to convert a 401K all to gold within the tax system of transfer. In these cases the gov. knows about your gold. Buying odds and ends here and there they will not. I am not sure confiscation will just be confined to gold this time around. I think it will be bank accounts, pensions and possibly gold. You see last time around there was gold confiscation because of the move away for gold tender in circulation to a gold money standard. This time around it will be because of the economics of government being broke. I would not think that because you have allot of gold you are in the clear. Food and vital survival items will be at a premium. Yet, there will be those that have food that will not need food in barter for example. Maybe you need a horse. Gold will be a key barter item for a horse possibly. Gold and silver will retain value we know. It is human nature. As for the risks well what about that digital bank account? What about the stack of $100rd’s under the mattress? What about your food pantry? What about your life? All will be at risk in a collapse!

Pops on Sun, 13th Apr 2014 12:51 pm 



IMHO, if you actually believe things are set to change in a big way, buying gold (or anything else) is an excuse to not do the thing required, which is learn to live way down on the food chain.

“You can’t take it with you” applies. If you are sitting in the ‘burbs and the economy is laying at your ankles, that gold will be little comfort.

I raise calves too, this is a good year so far, but ’09 wasn’t so good, neither was 1929 – my grandpa lost his place back then because cattle weren’t worth squat and and the little oil well he thought was a godsend went dry too. They knew how to make due better than any of us I’m guessing but they were not thinking things were going to get worse, only better – therein lies the problem. The solution is to plan for the worst and hopefully be pleasantly surprised.

So, if it makes you feel better, buy some fish, but the better route in my opinion is to become a fisherman.

:^)

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 13th Apr 2014 1:06 pm 



Pops, who knows what is going to work. Just do something instead of the majority of couch potatoes sitting on their fattening asses doing nothing!