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Page added on August 13, 2013
China to overtake US as world’s largest oil importer
Fueled by a rising population and industrial production, China’s net oil imports are set to outpace that of today’s leader – the USA – in October. The switch comes as the US ‘shale revolution’ provides for an increasing share of its domestic needs.
China will leave the US behind in monthly oil imports by October 2013, and annually by 2014, according to a short term outlook by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
China’s net liquid fuel imports are forecast to rise to 6.45 million barrels per day, while in the US they will drop to 6.23 million barrels per day in October, the EIA said. Crude imports and other petroleum products have fallen steadily since 2005.
Net oil imports -source EIA.
In 2012, China’s demand for imported oil accounted for 12 percent of global crude demand, ranking second only to the US. Last year Beijing was buying 5.1 million barrels per day from foreign markets, compared to 10.3 million barrels imported by the US daily.
“It is only a matter of time for China to surpass the US in net oil imports. The most important thing is to find solutions as the largest oil importer China will be very vulnerable to oil price changes,” said Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University.
Spurred by their domestic ‘shale revolution’, the US is now satisfying more and more of its energy demand from within, with production nearing 13 million barrels per day. New technologies in drilling have made underground shale reserves accessible, which were previously out-of-reach for energy explorers in states like Texas and North Dakota.
China imports 60 percent of its oil, and the remaining demand is met by China’s biggest oil producer PetroChina. Imports are sourced mainly from the Middle East and Russia. China has just started fracking for oil and gas in the earthquake-prone Sichuan region.
Oil producers from the Middle East, Russia, Africa and Latin America are all competing for a bigger share of China’s growing market as demand for imported oil falls in the US and Europe.
Though China’s external energy demand remains ‘robust’, overall, oil-demand growth is low, and the IEA pared its 2014 estimated by 100,000 barrels from July. Consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels a day to 92 million next year globally. Forecasts for 2014 are 1.2 million barrels per day.
Total world consumption has reached 89.5 billion barrels per day, and the agency predicts demand to grow by 940,000 barrels a day in the third quarter of 2013, driven by colder temperatures.
Following a ‘trade victory’
In 2012, China surpassed the US as the world’s largest trading nation by net exports, and becoming the world’s largest oil consumer is seen as another market victory. Last month’s trade data from China provided for more evidence that the economy is getting stronger. China’s exports and imports both increased in July 2013, beating analyst expectations.
It was also a strong recovery from June, when trade contracted for the first time since about 2009. Customs data showed that exports rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier, while imports leaped 10.9 percent.
Chinese industrial output has grown 9.7 percent year-on-year, far outperforming analyst expectations.
12 Comments on "China to overtake US as world’s largest oil importer"
BillT on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 12:46 am
As China rises, the West sinks. China is joining with Russia to overturn the West or, I should say, to destroy the dollar as the world currency. Between China’s manufacturing base and Russia’s resource base, that is a good match. Makes things interesting…
GregT on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 12:54 am
I see more wars on the horizon.
SilentRunning on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 3:07 am
I say: You can only import what somebody else can export. The shale gas/oil thingy will be a flash in the pan, followed by relentless decline in output.
DC on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 3:59 am
That chart above, is a chart of the decline of the brutal amerikan empire. However, I would caution anyone to simply accept the idea that China importing more oil=somehow China’s star is in the ascendent either.
Having to import all that oil is a weakness-not a strength. It makes your country more vulnerable not less. Sure you might get a short-term boost in some areas, but overall, China will have its short fossil-fueled party, then it too, will also go into steady decline in oil consumption. Consuming more oil in amerikas primitive gas-burners and driving around going no place important is all amerika has left. The effort to prevent China from making the same stupid choices and mistakes ‘we’ have, is slowly bankrupting the US and or will at some point, possibly lead to a war. One the US so desperately seeks, but no one else.
Luke on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 10:57 am
China could show its 5000 year wisdom from its Qin unifying power to the philosophy of Confusius. Switch over to renewables by monetary stimulation instead of its estate bubble. Don’t imitate the anglosaxon shortterm fossil thinking. US and UK shale revolution will die soon leaving two heavily soil contaminated countries for the greedy short term profits of big oil industry and their capitalist hintsmen. It’s up to the new Chinese leaders to take the necessary steps to a real energy independent future. And Yes They Can beat the Oilbamanics and Cameronics.
rollin on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 12:03 pm
What???? The US is still importing oil? The media has been lying to us about energy independence? Shame on them.
The big manufacturing countries are going to use oil, so what? The big story in China is coal, that is where most of the energy is being used and wasted. When coal and oil fades, so will the Chinese.
BillT on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 12:11 pm
Luke, you cannot run a growing economy on ‘renewables’. If you could, it would have happened long ago. In fact, you cannot run any for profit’ capitalist economy on ‘renewables’. They cannot reproduce themselves without oil.
Luke on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 3:59 pm
Ha BillT, thanks for your commit. Growth based on petro certainly will be the road to hell. Renewables will keep CO2 below 450 ppm and so dramatic climate change. Lower standard of living, lower mobility, lower consumption are worthwhile to keep this planet a habitable place for our kids. So capitalist economies including dirty Big Oil with short term profit goals are not the best incentive for their future. I admit my rather ideologic point of view, it is a road to take or leave.
GregT on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 5:17 pm
Anything that requires non-renewable resources of any kind, is in itself, non-renewable. The only things found on this earth that are “renewable” are things that are self replicated, naturally. Trees, animals, and plants are things that are “renewable”. Copper, aluminum, steel, plastics, and silicone, are non-renewable, as is oil.
All current manmade alternate energy sources are non-renewable, period. We are so stuck in the normalcy bias of a never ending supply of energy, that we can’t even see that it is the excess energy itself that is creating all of our problems.
We need to return back to living within, and taking care of, the natural environment. Doing so will end modern industrial society, and cause a massive human die off. Not doing so, will leave an uninhabitable planet for our kids.
Our predicament does not have a solution, only choices. None of which will be pleasant.
Luie on Tue, 13th Aug 2013 7:36 pm
Ha GregT, I do completely agree with you. Let’s go ahead disseminating our Message in the US and EU. Two blocks betting more and more on the wrong horses.
actioncjackson on Wed, 14th Aug 2013 1:39 am
The world reserve currency (dollar) is completely and intrinsically mated with oil. As the oil trade increases in China, there’s pressure to make exchanges without having to use the dollar. Or at least that’s how it appears to me but I’m no economist.
BillT on Wed, 14th Aug 2013 12:34 pm
Action, there is already major trade without dollars. China has all kinds of trade agreements going to trade in other currencies. Ditto Russia, India, Brazil, etc. The days of the dollar are numbered.