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Page added on April 5, 2015
California Drought Tests History of Endless Growth
For more than a century, California has been the state where people flocked for a better life — 164,000 square miles of mountains, farmland and coastline, shimmering with ambition and dreams, money and beauty. It was the cutting-edge symbol of possibility: Hollywood, Silicon Valley, aerospace, agriculture and vineyards.
But now a punishing drought — and the unprecedented measures the state announced last week to compel people to reduce water consumption — is forcing a reconsideration of whether the aspiration of untrammeled growth that has for so long been this state’s driving engine has run against the limits of nature.
The 25 percent cut in water consumption ordered by Gov. Jerry Brown raises fundamental questions about what life in California will be like in the years ahead, and even whether this state faces the prospect of people leaving for wetter climates — assuming, as Mr. Brown and other state leaders do, that this marks a permanent change in the climate, rather than a particularly severe cyclical drought.
This state has survived many a catastrophe before — and defied the doomsayers who have regularly proclaimed the death of the California dream — as it emerged, often stronger, from the challenges of earthquakes, an energy crisis and, most recently, a budgetary collapse that forced years of devastating cuts in spending. These days, the economy is thriving, the population is growing, the state budget is in surplus, and development is exploding from Silicon Valley to San Diego; the evidence of it can be seen in the construction cranes dotting the skylines of Los Angeles and San Francisco.
But even California’s biggest advocates are wondering if the severity of this drought, now in its fourth year, is going to force a change in the way the state does business.
Can Los Angeles continue to dominate as the country’s capital of entertainment and glamour, and Silicon Valley as the center of high tech, if people are forbidden to take a shower for more than five minutes and water bills become prohibitively expensive? Will tourists worry about coming? Will businesses continue their expansion in places like San Francisco and Venice?
“Mother Nature didn’t intend for 40 million people to live here,” said Kevin Starr, a historian at the University of Southern California who has written extensively about this state. “This is literally a culture that since the 1880s has progressively invented, invented and reinvented itself. At what point does this invention begin to hit limits?”
California, Dr. Starr said, “is not going to go under, but we are going to have to go in a different way.”
An estimated 38.8 million people live in California today, more than double the 15.7 million people who lived here in 1960, and the state’s labor force exploded to 18.9 million in 2013 from 6.4 million people in 1960.
California’s $2.2 trillion economy today is the seventh largest in the world, more than quadruple the $520 billion economy of 1963, adjusted for inflation. The median household income jumped to an estimated $61,094 in 2013 from $44,772 in 1960, also adjusted for inflation.
“You just can’t live the way you always have,” said Mr. Brown, a Democrat who is in his fourth term as governor.
“For over 10,000 years, people lived in California, but the number of those people were never more than 300,000 or 400,000,” Mr. Brown said. “Now we are embarked upon an experiment that no one has ever tried: 38 million people, with 32 million vehicles, living at the level of comfort that we all strive to attain. This will require adjustment. This will require learning.”
This disconnect, as it were, can be seen in places like Palm Springs, in the middle of the desert, where daily per capita water use is 201 gallons — more than double the state average. A recent drive through the community offered a drought-defying tableau of burbling fountains, flowers, lush lawns, golf courses and trees. The smell of mowed lawn was in the air.
But the drought is now forcing change in a place that long identified itself as “America’s desert oasis.” Palm Springs has ordered 50 percent cuts in water use by city agencies, and plans to replace the lawns and annual flowers around city buildings with native landscapes. It is digging up the grassy median into town that unfurled before visitors like a carpet at a Hollywood premiere. It is paying residents to replace their lawns with rocks and desert plants, and offering rebates to people who install low-flow toilets.
At the airport that once welcomed winter-chilled tourists with eight acres of turf and flowers, city officials are in the early stages of replacing the grass with cactus, desert bushes and paloverde trees. The city had hoped to replace the entire lawn, but the project’s $2 million price tag forced it to begin instead with three acres, said David Ready, the city manager.
“Years ago the idea was, come to Palm Springs, and people see the grass and the lushness and the green,” Mr. Ready said. “We’ve got to change the way we consume water.“
Fallow Fields
Other places face different threats to their way of life. Mayor Robert Silva of Mendota, in the heart of the agricultural Central Valley, said unemployment among farmworkers had soared as the soil turned to crust and farmers left half or more of their fields fallow. Many people are traveling 60 or 70 miles to look for work, Mr. Silva said, and families are increasingly relying on food donations.
“You can’t pay the bills with free food,” he said. “Give me some water, and I know I can go to work, that’s the bottom line.”
Richard White, a history professor at Stanford University, said the scarcity of water could result in a decline in housing construction, at a time when there has been a burst of desperately needed residential development in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco.
34 Comments on "California Drought Tests History of Endless Growth"
Rodster on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 4:04 pm
California is essentially a desert. You add population growth and woefully insane mismanagement and you arrive at these results. Not shocking or surprising what’s happening there.
They could have taken some of their budget and built some desalinization plants years or decades ago but nope. Gotta spend the money are the real stuff like freebies to illegals and the voters who put these jokers back in office.
Rodster on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 4:06 pm
What’s even more comical is that the water restrictions doesn’t apply to Nestle’s and the fracking crowd. They can use millions of gallons on the wells but the regular taxpaying folk suffer.
Nony on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 4:08 pm
The whole thing could easily be managed with a price signal.
BobInget on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 4:49 pm
Climate Changes = Population movements.
Reliable information tells us California’s
drought could extend for decades.
Prolonged drought in the world’s eighth largest economy is a serious game changer.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2014/07/07/tech-construction-drive-california-s-worldwide-gdp.html
Insurance and reinsurance companies love this shit. Rates around the world will rise
to unaffordable in this decade.
Water recycling, (purification) pipelines,
heavy equipment, cement, steel, all manners of solar and alternative energies, to power
ad hoc desalination. Costal counties of Oregon, Washington and BC.
These are just a few of the ‘winners’.
The obvious losers will be agriculture, (food prices) and tourism.
Perk Earl on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 5:09 pm
Somebody stick me with a fork, I’m done!
And any other old cliché’s.
Even though our area of CA, Hidden Valley Lake with a lake view have all the surrounding area reservoirs are filled, our local water district two days after Brown’s announcement of water rationing, raised the base rate and expanded 2 tier charges into 4 with astronomical charges in tier 4.
So they have as much water as any other year i.e. maxed out, but are using the situation as an excuse to load up, skim some cream for head hauncho’s. Two months at tier one is now $194. Tier 4 at same number of gallons? I don’t even want to know. Guess we’ll have to cut back on watering great landscaping and see what makes it through.
Perk Earl on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 5:17 pm
“California is essentially a desert.”
Rodster, Southern CA is desert, but northern is mostly temperate with mountainous areas like the Sierra’s, where snow runoff feeds aquaducts in Spring to So. CA.
Trouble is there won’t be near as much to supply the 20+ million in So. CA.
as normal snow melt, so what goes South is going to be a lot less.
Apneaman on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 5:18 pm
“Insurance and reinsurance companies love this shit. Rates around the world will rise
to unaffordable in this decade.”
Once the rates reach unaffordable, I would think that ends the insurance industry-at least for that sector. What’s to love about that for the industry?
Rodster on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 6:10 pm
@PE, correct and I should have mentioned that. During my travel’s of California I fell in love with Redding, Sonoma Valley, Yreka, Lake Shasta area.
jjhman on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 6:31 pm
You have to wonder how much evidence like this it is going to take to get people in positions of power and influence to realize that the endless growth paradigm doesn’t have much longer to run.
In the local paper this morning there was a reader suggestion to simply pipe water from the Great Lakes. Problem solved forever! There was also the usual frivolous suggestion that desalinisation could solve all of our water problems. Amazing and depressing.
Not every problem (probably NO problem) can be solved by the same process that caused the problem.
R1verat on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 6:42 pm
jjhmn~couldn’t agree with you more. I have often wondered just how long the proverbial can can be kicked down the road.
However, if one considers the Near Term Extinction (NTE) vein of thought, perhaps just continuing BAU as long as one possibly can is the ‘reasonable’ course.
Of course eventually someone will be on watch when the SHTF. But if you’re lucky, it won’t be you!
rockman on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 6:42 pm
“What’s even more comical is that the water restrictions doesn’t apply to Nestle’s and the fracking crowd. They can use millions of gallons on the wells but the regular taxpaying folk suffer.” FYI: the amount of water used to keep CA’s golf course green exceeds the amount of water used to frac wells in Texas DURING THE HEIGHT OF DRILLING. Last time I checked playing golf didn’ keep homes livable or gas tanks filled.
Of course Texas also has to deal with population growth: during the height of the demographic swing 1,500 folks were moving to Texas PER DAY. Fortunately we don’t have any problem keeping them hydrated despite being the center of the frac’ng universe.
BobInget on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 6:52 pm
Apneaman,
Perhaps I didn’t make it clear.
The more free publicity give to any imminent
crisis, in this case, CA’s fire dangers, will force prices too high for ‘middle class’ home-owners. There will always be the 2% who can afford hedged insurance.
When most of US industry was busy seeding climate change doubt, insurance companies were making fears (and studies) of warming public. Today, even NASA or Pentagon reports are ignored and buried.
Peak Earl’s water district’s price gouging
is just the beginning. When business opportunists state flatly; “water is the new petroleum” they let the cat of the bag.
We are already seeing major migration issues
from Africa into Europe as result of climate change. Unless we admit that water shortages resulting from climate changes cause political upheaval, nothing serious will be done.
Observation:
One interesting fact about Yemen in the news. That country is so dry it’s impossible
for foreign forces of any size to occupy.
Portable desalination plants need refueling and distribution infrastructure. Large passenger, or warships can make fresh water for locals trapped in war-zones.
Russia is preparing to launch several ‘humanitarian’ water and food missions into Yemen.
What could go wrong?
Nony on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 7:05 pm
Simple price signal, no need for tiers would solve things. Place is so frigging commie that it is all hosed up.
Davy on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 7:07 pm
Bobby, plenty of water in Yemen being used to grow khat.
Makati1 on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 7:51 pm
“The city had hoped to replace the entire lawn, but the project’s $2 million price tag forced it to begin instead with three acres,…”
Nope! The cost to revert to desert is zero. Just wait for Mother Nature to do her thing and … Bingo! Desert. May not be ‘pretty’ but it matches the Cali budget.
Only fools try to turn deserts into Paradise or to build a culture around the automobile. Mother Nature has never heard of “business as usual”. She has been constantly changing things for billions of years and that is NOT going to stop evolution or tectonic plate movement because some greedy apes think they are in control.
Perk Earl on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 8:41 pm
“During my travel’s of California I fell in love with Redding, Sonoma Valley, Yreka, Lake Shasta area.”
Yeah, fun place to travel and explore, Rodster. We’re just east of Sonoma Valley. It’s about 1,100 feet elevation with rolling hills, lots of trees and wildlife. We use to live in that rat race called the SF bay area and then sought the road less travelled, but still go down there on business every few weeks.
American Idiot on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 9:25 pm
If you go to youtube, check out Earth 2100 ABC documentary. It’s pretty close to what’s happening.
Plantagenet on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 9:58 pm
The good news here is that Gov. Jerry Brown and the Ds who run California just passed a bill to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on flood control. There may not be any rain, but by god the contractors who build flood control projects and kick back money to the legislature must get their dollop of money from state contracts.
dave thompson on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 10:21 pm
About 1/3 of USA food comes from California, for now.
DMyers on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 10:38 pm
Plant, you have to get the logic here. The fact that it hasn’t rained in a while means, “one o’ these days here soon, it’s gonna!”
And of course since it hasn’t rained, this imminent balancing act will probably be a doozy. So, they’re just looking after their adoring constituents, making sure they get all they deserve if they get hit by this doozy of a rain storm that’s gotta be comin’ here pretty soon.
Plant, which would you prefer, your representative protecting you from the flood you hope is coming, or one who is telling you it’s probably one of them ol’ hundred year droughts?
Makati1 on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 10:42 pm
Dave T, most Americans don’t think about where their food comes from. Most assume that the US always has surplus to export. What they don’t know is that it also imports many of the things they take for granted (~20%). They should read the labels of their purchases for a real education on the future without imports or Cali fruits and veggies.
Plantagenet on Sun, 5th Apr 2015 11:24 pm
@DMyers
You have to understand the logic here. Dams are flood control structures. When it rains, the run-off is collected in the dam. If the dam is full then the flood waters have to be released downstream.
But the dams in California aren’t full. IN fact, they are empty. Not only are there no floods and no full reservoirs—-there isn’t even any rain.
Your claim that the lack of rain in California means the next rain “will be a doozy” is just silly. There isn’t any rain—and the next rain is much more likely be a tiny thing that sinks into the ground and never even reaches the empty reservoir.
Face facts—-California is in a drought!
meld on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 2:36 am
lets face facts, none of us has the slightest clue mother nature is going to do next. Could be a drought for 1000 years, could be the mother of all rain storms that washes LA into the sea. Who knows.
Davy on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 7:44 am
Dave T the figure is 1/3 for a select group of fruits, vegetables and nuts not all food. The figure is 11.63% for all food. California foods could go to zero and that would be a good thing for alternatives to the exotics grown in California which would allow locally sourced alternatives. This California thing could be a huge shot in the arm of the localized food movement. If would be a huge stake in the heart of production AG. I feel for Californians in this drought but the results will not be bad for the rest of the country in the descent scenario. This is an example of forced change and crisis that is good and what we need.
http://wherefoodcomesfrom.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=9076#.VSJ-MPnF9-4
Makster, much of what the US imports is exotics we don’t have to have and or seasonal we don’t have to have. Food imports could go to zero and this would be a good thing for localized food. Makster this is unlike Asia that will have famine if they have a 20% drop in food imports.
Makati1 on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 8:32 am
“Food, feeds, and beverages was the smallest category, at $115 billion. Americans import fish ($18 billion), fruit ($13 billion) and vegetables ($11 billion).”
http://useconomy.about.com/od/tradepolicy/p/Imports-Exports-Components.htm
That is about $365 per capita/per year. (~18% of average US food costs per capita.) That includes such ‘exotics’ as: coffee, chocolate, many cheeses, many ocean fish, etc. Life would be a lot different without variety. Especially in the winter, if Cali drys up. Can you imagine the US without coffee or chocolate?
Makati1 on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 9:02 am
Oh, and the Ps imports about $35 per capita/per year of food stuffs.
Mostly items for the Westernized restaurants/chains and western/European expats, tourists, and business travelers. (TGI Friday’s, Wendy’s, Burger King, McDonalds, KFC, Chili’s, Kenny Rogers, Hard Rock Cafe, Little Caeser’s Pizza, Pizza Hut, Dominoes Pizza, Outback Steak House, Subway, and on and on. There are over 1,000 restaurants in Manila alone.)
When the SHTF, those imports will NOT be missed by the average Filipino as they cannot afford them even now. I saw a Japanese steak for P3,800 per kilo the other say. That is $44 per pound US. I had to go back and look at the price again to make sure I saw it correctly. LOL Lean hamburger is ~$3.90/lb.
Davy on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 9:32 am
Marketer, Google Asian food imports and get back too me. Your insignificant little adopted country means little in the grand scheme of things. I am working on the farm now when I have time I will research the food situation in the P’s. It is almost certainty not as rosy a picture as your travel agent cheerleading lets on.
The fact is with adjustments the U.S. can feed itself completely within our borders and Asia can’t. That is a simple fact Makster you are unable to digest. P’s has 100MIL in space of Arizona and Asia 4BIL in the space of Russia. That is a horrible thought in a food and fuel insecurity scenario.
Pamur on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 11:32 am
I think there us a bit of a misunderstanding in this discussion about drought. There may be more rain in the future. But the higher temperatures that provide that increased air moisture will increase evaporation and limit snowpack too, resulting in less available water.
Apneaman on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 1:56 pm
Ridiculously Resilient Ridge
redpill on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 7:44 pm
Perk Earl, that tier 1 rate seemed over the top so I had to research.
From what I find, $100 of that bi-monthly charge is for “sewer” and hasn’t changed as a result of this recent change in tiers.
Is that correct?
Makati1 on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 8:10 pm
Davy, the US is drying up and the other areas are experiencing wild weather swings that can be just as crop damaging as drought. Maybe more so as you cannot plan for early frost, floods at planting time, etc. You are another kind of dreamer that believes that the UFSA is immune to all of the problems you claim are coming to Asia. You are not.
I made my home choice on the facts I see here VS the facts I see in the UFSA when I visit. You live in an area that looks good for some things but bad for others, just as everyone else on this doomed planet.
I see a world war happening long before the problem of food becomes major. That will change ALL of the ‘predictions’ as to population/food/resources. And, yes, the missiles WILL fall on American cities this time. Think Berlin/London/Stalingrad or even, Hiroshima/Nagasaki.
Davy on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 8:59 pm
Makster, numbers don’t lie and the Asian numbers are bad by any definition of sustainability. The difference between you and me is I talk about US problems. You, Makster, rarely if ever talk about Asian issues that are bad. I talk about NUK war in the context of MAD. You, Makster, on the other hand consistently mention a one way NUK war with the U.S. destroyed unilaterally. You are an agendist and a fake. You dirty this site with your propaganda.
Makati1 on Mon, 6th Apr 2015 11:37 pm
Davy, Asia has it’s problems, but they are not as serious as you want me to believe they are. Come here and live for a year and THEN we will talk about the situation. I know what is happening in the Police State once known as America. You have only USMSM propaganda to try to understand Asia.
Nuclear war is closer today than ever and denying that the US will not receive a fair share of them, if/when it happens, is blind denial.
BTW: Numbers DO lie and most the time. Nothing that comes out of government or corporations are true facts. ALL are category five spin no matter their country of origin.
I have eyes and can see what is around me. I can see what is going on thru the numerous news sources from all of the Asian countries around me. I am sure I spend more time on current affairs of the world then you do and read more sources outside the US. I am neither stupid, uneducated nor senile.
Davy on Tue, 7th Apr 2015 5:55 am
Makster, admit you are an agendist. You cannot accept any criticism but you dish it out copiously. I will criticize any and all. I am constantly criticizing the US. I am anti-establishment and against the worst of American culture. I find myself trying to keep the truth from being distorted by your continuous redundant anti-American propaganda. You are such a hypocrite by claiming propaganda with anything critical of your super heroes in Asia but using propaganda to condemn your hated west. You are over the top of delusional for your adopted insignificant Philippines within the Asian region in severe overshoot being a refuge.
Asia is the primary place of overshoot both with consumption and population. I am ready to admit the west is a mess, in decline, and facing collapse. This site is dedicated to American criticism. It is full of anti-Americans. It is understandable because Like Ape Man mentioned “it goes with the territory”. Asia is still growing its problem and when it crashes it will be extremely ugly. You are such a joke Mak when you argue how bad population and consumption growth is but only in regards to everywhere else but Asia. You constantly mention NUK war and how Asia will be spared and the west destroyed. You have fail to see the global dynamics of energy and food in regards to Asia.
Your comments are as one sided as the MSM you constantly preach against. You can’t have your cake and eat it. We are all together here as a global interconnected world. You can’t decouple Asia. You can’t claim over population a problem but dismiss it for Asia. You live in the heart of a mega city of 12MIL that will be a hell hole when a collapse comes. You somehow think having a farm 80 miles away from 12MIL will save you. IMA a farm you are never on.
Mak, you are a bitter old man who is always claiming you have all the ingredients of the fountain of youth. The reality is you are 70 facing what will be a period of excess deaths over birth of numbers unimaginable by all alive now accept for a few in hot spots and the old of WWII. Your age will most likely mean your odds of surviving will be low yet you preach how everyone else will be dying but you.
I am already writing off 10-15 years of my BAU natural life of 35-40 years. I understand when SHTF the resulting chaos I may not make it 1 year just like anyone else. The list of death scenarios are long for a collapse. If this process plays out much slower with much less degree I am positioned well to survive and help in a transition.
We just don’t know how this will all shake out. What we do know is areas of comparative advantage and disadvantage. You are on the comparative disadvantage of being in a grossly overpopulated mega city in a region in massive overshoot. You are in a country with an environmental index right at the bottom. Of course when I linked the study in the past you immediately claimed it propaganda. All numbers point to a horrific collapse in Asia with more than half the global population is in an area smaller than Russia. Good luck Makster you will need it.