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Page added on February 6, 2019
Bank Of America: Oil Demand Growth To Hit Zero Within A Decade
By 2030, oil demand could hit a peak and then enter decline, according to a new report.
For the next decade or so, oil demand should continue to grow, although at a slower and slower rate. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the annual increase in global oil consumption slows dramatically in the years ahead. By 2024, demand growth halves, falling to just 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), down from 1.2 mb/d this year.
But by 2030, demand growth zeros out as consumption hits a permanent peak, before falling at a relatively rapid rate thereafter.
The main driver of the destruction in demand is the proliferation of electric vehicles.
Bank of America did offer a few caveats and uncertainties. The growth of EVs hinges on a handful of key metals. Lithium, for instance, is mined and produced in large concentrations in a few Latin American countries.
But cobalt looms as a larger concern for some automakers. Roughly 62 percent global cobalt output is found in the Democratic Republic of Congo. An executive from Ford said recently that automakers might feel compelled to invest directly in cobalt production over fears of securing adequate supply. “I fully anticipate we’re going to keep a lot of pressure on that cobalt production,” Ted Miller, head of energy storage strategy and research at Ford, said at a mining event in South Africa. “Today it looks feasible but it’s a scenario we’re going to have to watch.”
The DRC just held a divisive election, and although the transfer of power has been mostly peaceful, the country has historically suffered from political instability. “Any major disruption to cobalt today would likely curb EV proliferation in the early 2020s, in turn supporting long dated crude oil prices,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned.
There are alternatives to cobalt, but that would merely put pressure on other materials. “Car producers may gradually substitute from cobalt to nickel over the next two decades. In turn, this shift may lead to soaring demand for nickel, creating another supply squeeze as mine expansion plans are limited,” BofAML analysts wrote in their report.
There are a long list of other uncertainties that complicate such medium- and long-term forecasting. A brewing economic downturn, which may or may not hit in the next year or next few years, could linger into the 2020s. That would alter oil demand forecasts, but in complicated ways. Slower economic growth would put a dent in oil prices via lower demand, but a lower price itself could keep consumers hooked.
The EV market is also rife with uncertainty. EV sales are growing quickly, with the number of EVs on the roads picking up pace. Automakers are set to roll out dozens of new models, which will expand choice and awareness, while also making progress on price, range, and performance. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees EVs having a “meaningful negative impact” on oil demand from 2021 onwards.
Then, of course, there is the small matter of policy, which can cut both ways. Bank of America said that “the US’s feeble commitments to climate action, fuel efficiency standards, and sulphur-limit reductions in shipping (IMO),” could slow EV adoption. But the next administration could also reverse course and step up climate ambition.
Even when breaking down oil demand into various segments, there is a lot of change going on. “EVs are shifting demand away from gasoline, IMO causes switching into diesel, and strong petchems demand growth is shifting demand toward the light part of the barrel, including NGLs in particular,” BofAML wrote. “We are at the beginning of a new age of uncertainty for oil producers, refiners and miners alike.”
Nevertheless, despite all of those uncertainties, the outlines of the trajectory are clear. Oil demand in the developed world saw a temporary boost over the last four years or so because of the collapse of oil prices. That has mostly run its course. Demand “should return to outright declines as the price effect wears off and efficiency takes over,” BofAML wrote.
Emerging market demand should continue to grow as more people acquire cars. China, however, has made a major EV push and its demand growth is already starting to slow.
“The major driver of structural change in oil demand trends in the next five years and beyond is expected to be electric vehicles,” BofAML said. By 2020, EVs will capture 5 percent of global vehicle sales, which will balloon to 40 percent by 2030, before rising to 95 percent by 2050.
All of that implies a peak in oil demand by 2030, a little over a decade from now. We are in the midst of the “biggest structural shift in demand growth since the proliferation of the car began in the early 1900s,” BofAML concluded.
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com
83 Comments on "Bank Of America: Oil Demand Growth To Hit Zero Within A Decade"
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 6:18 am
By 2030 we will be back to horse and buggy not E.Vs what few remain by then.
Davy on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 6:54 am
“By 2020, EVs will capture 5 percent of global vehicle sales, which will balloon to 40 percent by 2030, before rising to 95 percent by 2050.”
Let’s review this and ask ourselves if the above is legitimate or more like goal seeking?
“‘forecast’, ‘prediction’ and ‘projection’
A great amount of confusion seem to have grown up in the use of words ‘forecast’, ‘prediction’ and ‘projection’. A prediction is an estimate based solely in past data of the series under investigation. It is purely mechanical extrapolation. A projection is a prediction where the extrapolated values are subjects to a certain numerical assumptions. A forecast is an estimate which relates the series in which we are interested to external factors. Forecasts are made by estimating future values of the external factors by means of prediction, projection or forecast and from these values calculating the estimate of the dependent variable.”
JuanP on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 8:47 am
“Russia and Iran ditching US Dollar for trade for national currencies.”
https://www.rt.com/business/450763-russia-iran-ditch-dollar/
A model for the world to follow. Countries that have these systems in place will benefit greatly when the US Dollar and the US dominated financial system crash as they inevitably will. Illegal US sanctions are giving its enemies an edge, making them stronger and more independent, self reliant, and self sufficient. Get rid of your dollars and US investments while you still can!
JuanP on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 8:53 am
“OPEC wants formal alliance with Russia to control global oil market.”
https://www.rt.com/business/450777-russia-opec-formal-alliance/
Russia has said many times that it is not interested.
anon on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 8:57 am
EV sales 9% of car sales by 2050…. easy! 95% of zero is how much?
what’s remarkable is how these people of the machine are so preoccupied with what kind of cars they expect to be driving, as if nothing else at all matters.
anon on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 8:58 am
er, 95% not 9% like the article said.. as if its to be taken seriously anyway.
Davy on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 9:30 am
“Countries that have these systems in place will benefit greatly when the US Dollar and the US dominated financial system crash as they inevitably will.”
Typical anti-American agendist who doesn’t see the reality that the rest of the world is coming apart as quick or quicker. People like Juan see out as far his nose like a mole.
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 11:14 am
Five reasons why autonomous cars aren’t coming anytime soon
https://techxplore.com/news/2019-02-autonomous-cars-anytime.html?fbclid=IwAR0dYc4sv9YfvIMvgo1qQjA6b7Ti9NUp9EcvYgssKjZpV3IEiSWfIzbCTj0
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 11:33 am
Its been a no good terrible week for Clogg..
First the IEA says peak demand is nowhere in sight..And then the truth starts to come out that driverless cars are nowhere near ready, if ever..
That is what happens when you put the “Cart in front of the horse”..
Clogg’s fantasy future has way too many “If’s”..He is low IQ though so logic is his strong point..
LOL
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 11:37 am
The real puppet master of the republican party!
And the largest donor in all of America..He makes soros look like a boy scout..
Adelson’s Netanyahu-aligned Newspaper to Cover Election With Israeli Television Network
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/business/.premium-netanyahu-aligned-newspaper-to-cover-election-with-israeli-television-network-1.6899072
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 12:03 pm
“Its been a no good terrible week for Clogg..
First the IEA says peak demand is nowhere in sight.”
Mobster is dumb as a brick. For months he has been lying that the IEA supports his 2009-ish peak oil supply views. Now by exception he quotes the IEA realistically and now I am supposed to have a “bad week”.
Intellectual basketcase, our resident sociopath.
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 12:08 pm
“The real puppet master of the republican party!
And the largest donor in all of America..He makes soros look like a boy scout..”
Except the supposed “puppet” does what he wants and is NOT dancing to the tunes of the kikes. Trump withdraws from Syria, Iran sanctions going nowhere, the wall, etc. Trump is his own man and quotes Buchanan for white nationalist statements. Some puppet!
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 12:12 pm
I think that peak oil will coincide with the beginning of WW3/CW2, somewhere between 2021-2024, the later date in case Trump get reelected.
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 12:50 pm
Clogg
Here is the IEA chief back in 2009 interview
“In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html
And here is Dr Birol back in 2017 warning again..
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
And here is the IEA warning again in Nov 2018
Peak Oil & Drastic Oil Shortages Imminent, Says IEA
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/november/crunching-the-numbers-are-we-heading-for-an-oil-supply-shock.html
Here is Goldman Sachs as well
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/goldman-sachs-there-will-be-an-oil-shortage-in-the-2020s.html
And the former head of the US EIA
https://www.oilandgas360.com/panel-permian-wont-be-enough-prepare-for-supply-gap-and-a-decade-of-disorder/
I rest my case..
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 2:19 pm
“I rest my case..”
Yeah, please rest in your case.
We have been through this several times… the IEA predicts shortages, not because the world is running out of oil (for geophysical reasons) but because industry doesn’t see any advantage in investing exploration AT CURRENT OIL PRICES.
The industry witnessed $140 in 2008 but is now stuck with $60. The higher oil prices will get, the higher the incentive to invest again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 3:08 pm
Latest prices solar in Europe:
https://tinyurl.com/ybdey94d
300 Watt
147,- euro
(Used to be 300 euro 3 years ago)
Will produce over its 30 year life time, under mediocre Dutch solar conditions 7650 kWh.
Current consumer price 1 kWh in the Netherlands: 20 cent.
Financial turnover over 30 years: 1,530 euro
It’s a good investment.
Likewise the price for battery storage is coming down rapidly as well. In 6 years time it is predicted to be less than $50/kWh or $250 for a 5 kWh household storage.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/12/15/battery-storage-cost-less-than-50-kwh/
Dredd on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 3:27 pm
The feelings of zero something or other, like heat baby (In Search Of Ocean Heat – 5)
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 3:31 pm
Here a solar calculator. It gives you the annual yield for a given solar installation.
If you take all the defaults you get:
Oslo 3286 kWh
Eindhoven 3600 kWh
London 3654 kWh
Vancouver 4241 kWh
Manila 4751 kWh
Perth 4865 kWh
New York 5200 kWh
Missouri 5548 kWh
Cairo 6245 kWh
Miami 6296 kWh
Dakar 6377 kWh
Mexico 6874 kWh
Cloggie on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 3:32 pm
Oops link:
https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 3:59 pm
Clogg
I guess you didn’t read the first article..They aren’t investing because they know there are no giant oil fields left..This has been an issue for over 34 years..
Global oil consumption 2018 35 billion barrells
RYSTAD: 2018 Oil discoveries 9.4 billion barrels
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/oil-gas-exploration-winners-2018/
You lien about everything clogg
You lie about WW2 and make unfounded claims..
You lie about renewables replacing fossil fuels..
You lie about peak oil..
You are a liar because you can’t handle the truth..You are big fat pussy..Simple as that..You are economic loser who joined a cult of white supremacist so you could belong to something..
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 4:03 pm
Clogg
The 20th century average for a barrel of oil was 19 dollars (inflation adjusted)..
The 21st century average for a barrel of oil has been 62 dollars..
https://imgur.com/a/Qi9lv8j
This isn’t pork..That is a false equivalency.
makati1 on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 6:44 pm
“Slum by The Bay”
“San Francisco is one of the richest cities it the world. It’s given us music, technology and elegant architecture. Now it gives us filthy homeless encampments. One urban planner told me, “I just returned from the Tenderloin (a section of San Francisco). It’s worse than slums of India, Haiti, Africa!””
“People are rarely arrested for vagrancy, aggressive panhandling or going to the bathroom in front of people’s homes. In 2015, there were 60,491 complaints to police, but only 125 people were arrested.”
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2019/02/06/slum-by-the-bay/#more-191368
“2 Million Syringes Still Missing As San Francisco’s Drug Addicts Outnumber High-School Students”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-04/2-million-syringes-still-missing-san-franciscos-drug-addicts-outnumber-high-school
““The drugs of choice among the homeless appear to be heroin during the day, and methamphetamine at night – to stay up,” said Eileen Loughran, who heads the city’s syringe access and recovery program. Loughran said on average an addict shoots up three times a day, “but some people do more.””
Slip slidin’ faster every day…
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 9:18 pm
A Tesla battery only last for around 3 hours on the interstate or highway..What a joke..
LOL
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 6th Feb 2019 9:23 pm
Trump voters are just realizing the Trump tax-cuts where only for the rich
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dyn8_EiUYAABcN0.jpg
peakyeast on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 12:38 am
Demand growth are bound to go down as real prices go up. If oil prices were the same as in 2000 there would be a booming economy and high demand.
Today at 60-80$ everything is sluggish, desperation is showing almost everywhere and constraints are visibly tightening all the time.
So I agree: Demand will be going down – because of high oil prices and high prices of other fundamentals.
The buffers are getting smaller all the time and reality is seeping through the fake world economy.
Real BTU output is probably falling even now – if you subtract double counting, higher costs of production and so forth.
Tim Devers on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 1:53 am
“what’s remarkable is how these people of the machine are so preoccupied with what kind of cars they expect to be driving as if nothing else at all matters.”
Anon, we have to keep believing that nothin’s wrong. “should I choose metallic paint? It doesn’t matter in this 2050 sun. No company will warranty the duco anyway hehe.”
In other news, see in MOB’s link? Some crazy SOB ran six auto drones off the road! It is funny in a way but scary to know that you have people like that driving and possibly armed
Free Speech Forum on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 2:36 am
Americans are whistling down to the concentration camps.
Antius on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 4:11 am
Aircraft carriers are highly vulnerable to ballistic missile attack. A WW2 era V2 rocket, equipped with a 1960s era inertial guidance system; is all that it would take to destroy an aircraft carrier, or indeed, any other large capital ship. Such missiles are accurate to within 100m; so firing half a dozen of them is sure to achieve at least one hit. With that in mind, one wonders about the logic of building a fleet of such concentrated assets. That is exactly what the Chinese are planning to do.
https://tinyurl.com/yc36k25h
Davy on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 4:52 am
“With that in mind, one wonders about the logic of building a fleet of such concentrated assets. That is exactly what the Chinese are planning to do.”
China is building them. You have both the missiles and some carriers. The US has clearly too many but some are necessary to project power.
Davy on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:18 am
So much for the anti-American armchair military thinkers here:
“China To Build 4 Nuclear Aircraft Carriers In Bid To Rival US Superiority”
https://tinyurl.com/yc36k25h
“A bombshell new report outlines an expected Chinese military game-changer that could catapult its navy to rival global US power on the high seas. In a push to compete with US naval power, China plans to build four nuclear-powered aircraft carriers expected to be operational by 2035. With China’s current single carrier group commissioned in 2012 and another domestic-built carrier on the way (undergoing sea tests), this would bring Chinese naval strength up to six carrier battle groups. By comparison the United States has 11 nuclear-powered carriers in operation (and 9 other amphibious warfare ships that could be considered small carriers). Such a rapid advance in Beijing’s sea capabilities would far outpace other countries except for the US, as no other country has more than two. Currently the only other active nuclear powered carrier in the world today is France’s Charles de Gaulle, though India also has plans to build one, and Russia is in an exploratory phase.”
JuanP on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 6:26 am
Aircraft carriers are still very useful to terorize small, defenseless countries like Uruguay, but they are completely useless against countries like China and Russia. I know I wouldn’t want to be on one of the if the USA where ever to start a war against either of them.
JuanP on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 6:40 am
MOB “A Tesla battery only last for around 3 hours on the interstate or highway..What a joke..”
I haven’t driven that much in one day in at least 15 years,and If I ever needed to I could Uber or rent a car, so a Tesla would solve all my transportation needs, which is why I am considering buying one. I do already own a gas SUV, so the Tesla would be my second car at this time, too. My brother has had an electric Nissan Leaf for many years and he is extremely happy and completely satisfied with it.
jawagord on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 9:47 am
I wonder if the BoA factored in another billion people will be living on the planet by 2030? Another billion consumers will trump any transition to EV’s which by the way will put huge demands on existing power infrastructure.
Dredd on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 3:55 pm
So, according to this article, by 2030 people are going to want to stop eating shit?
“Oil … is the devil’s Excrement.” OPEC co-founder Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo
What took so long?
Sissyfuss on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:01 pm
Seriously, is anybody else on this site lowering their carbon footprint besides me? And I said lowering, not trying. Natzis don’t count.
Cloggie on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:12 pm
British humor at its finest:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-donald-tusk-theresa-may-hell-eu-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-the-sun-stalin-a8767871.html
makati1 on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:24 pm
Sissyfuss, yes, I am and have been. I moved to the Philippines and have been downsizing for the last 10 years. In the US, I lived in a 1,600 sq.ft. house, now 600 sq.ft.. I owned a car. I gave that to my daughter.
The farmhouse here is designed to need zero electric and my use of electric and FFs has contracted by at least 50% in those 10 years. I mostly eat things grown locally or that I grow my self.
I am moving down the ladder voluntarily so the fall will not be so painful when the SHTF. And, I’m debt free. THAT is real freedom. Bragging? Nope! Just fact.
Davy on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:28 pm
“Seriously, is anybody else on this site lowering their carbon footprint besides me?”
Nobody has lowered there footprint more then me.
I downgraded to 3 vehicles and a couple of tractors. I’ve downsized to a measly 500 acres, and I don’t go out on the Learjet or the yacht near as much as I used to.
JuanP on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:44 pm
Delusional Davy “Nobody has lowered there footprint more then me.
I downgraded to 3 vehicles and a couple of tractors. I’ve downsized to a measly 500 acres, and I don’t go out on the Learjet or the yacht near as much as I used to.”
ROFLMFAO! The board’s lunatic wins that one! I couldn’t make shit like that up!
Anonymouse on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:56 pm
Naw, he downsized all the way down to his .9 acres of weeds, goat-poop, moss, and his second-hand Iphone 2.
The exceptionalturd wins, no contest.
JuanP identity theft on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 6:31 pm
When juanpee gets his ass kicked he turns to identity theft and support from his fellow low lifes anon and makato. Three of the lowest IQ of the board extremist.
Davy on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:28 pm
“Seriously, is anybody else on this site lowering their carbon footprint besides me?”Nobody has lowered there footprint more then me. I downgraded to 3 vehicles and a couple of tractors. I’ve downsized to a measly 500 acres, and I don’t go out on the Learjet or the yacht near as much as I used to.
juanp identity theft on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 6:32 pm
JuanP on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:44 pm Delusional Davy “Nobody has lowered there footprint more then me.I downgraded to 3 vehicles and a couple of tractors. I’ve downsized to a measly 500 acres, and I don’t go out on the Learjet or the yacht near as much as I used to.”
juanp associate low life on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 6:33 pm
Anonymouse on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 5:56 pm Naw, he downsized all the way down to his .9 acres of weeds, goat-poop, moss, and his second-hand Iphone 2. The exceptionalturd wins, no contest.
Anonymouse on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 6:39 pm
Hey everyone, I’ve been promoted to an ‘associate’ of JuanP. And here is was, thinking all my years of hard work and toil were going to remain un-rewarded and un-recognized.
Thanks exceptionalturd. You can expect more of the same in the future!
Dumbass…..
low life alert on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 6:41 pm
The millenial low life Canadian is active tonight
Davy on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 6:43 pm
anon, when is the last time you had an on topic comment? Are you just stupid or lazy?
JuanP on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 7:52 pm
Anon, Congratulations on your promotion! It is not every day that one of my alleged sock puppets gets promoted to associate. The Exceptionalist has recognized your humanity and individuality by doing so, somewhat out of character for him! LOL!
Davy on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 8:05 pm
For anybody that cares, I’m going to bed now to finish reading the MAD magazine my kids gave me last June. Only 12 pages left to go. It’s bin a real heavy read.
dumbasses
Anonymouse on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 8:33 pm
Thanks Juan. No one takes being a dirtyJuansockpuppet more seriously than I do. Well, ok, maybe, the exceptionalturd takes his sockpuppeting more seriously, but that is why he is the Neutererrer-in-chief, and I, just a lowly anon-a-mouse. At least, until my recent promotion anyhow.
Now, I just have to wait for the delusionalturd to mail me my key to Moderators Outhouse, and I am set.
And it’s ASSOCIATE Anon now, ahem.
peakyeast on Thu, 7th Feb 2019 8:49 pm
@Sissy: Yes. 90% self-sufficient with heating and electricity. (Oversized solar system).
Homemade 30 m2 of solar-air-heating on the end of the house.
Solarheat Vacuum tube x 60 for heating water.
No vacations using airtravel for 30 years.
Have only 1 car: LUPO 3L – the most effiecient diesel car for consumers. 33KM/L (I average 27KM/L).
I only buy second hand stuff. Never purchased a television – always go find them in the trash. Same with most of my computers.
All home equipment the most energy efficient possible.
Best and highest efficiency heat-pump for heating the house.
Have started producing my own veggies using aeroponic system(s). My garden has been planted with berries, fruits and veggies. Nothing useless. Planning to become self-supplied with cabbage, potatoes, tomatoes, fruit, berries in 1-2 years.
And much more…