America the Food Desert: How Peak Oil Will Make Food Less Nutritious

There’s a great post up on Reddit that articulates something that I’ve been thinking for a while. Namely, that as people get hungrier, food won’t get more expensive — it’ll just get less nutritious and more toxic. Ultimately, the entire country will become a food desert, and even the suburbs will be the culinary equivalent of an inner-city ghetto where everyone eats junk food all the time, and where diabetes and other food-related health, behavioral, and psychological problems are rampant.

The growing hunger of the public will not result in increasing food prices or food scarcity, it will see decreasing food quality. More hormone rich meat, genetically modified, chemically enhanced fruit and veg, and sub-par processed foods. This influx of “cheap” food, with the more expensive organic options being far out of the price range of the poor, will result in an epidemic of diabetes and other health complications for the common people. Without the infrastructure for decent health care, or with decent health care being far too expensive, the poor will eat themselves into an early grave. This has obviously been occurring for the last decade, but as the poor get poorer, and more in number, the food will get worse and worse, and those getting sick because of their diet will grow in number.
Thoughts?

I think there’s a peak oil connection here, and that as oil prices go up this trend will accelerate. Ultimately, energy scarcity will translate directly into a growing epidemic of heart disease, diabetes, and God only knows what else.

My reasoning here is based on a famous 2008 post on The Oil Drum, “The Fallacy of Reversibility“, in which Stuart Staniford convincingly demolishes the common prepper fantasy that we’ll all go back to the local farm as oil gets more scarce. He looks at the data and shows that industrial agriculture tends to get more profitable as fuel prices go up. The reason for this phenomenon is biofuel — demand for corn-based ethanol increases in times of oil scarcity, so industrial farmers do really well during these periods.

So what will ultimately happen is that as oil gets more expensive, industrial agriculture will become more profitable and smaller, “organic” farmers will get bought out and shut down. Organic, local food, which is actually more energy intensive per calorie to transport (it comes from local farms to farmers markets and such in smaller vehicles), will get even more expensive and further out of reach for all but the wealthiest.

As oil prices rise, we’ll end up in a world where even the upper class is priced out of Whole Foods and ends up eating the tarted up equivalent of inner-city gas station food, with all of the attendant problems that such a diet entails.

12 Comments on "America the Food Desert: How Peak Oil Will Make Food Less Nutritious"

ghung on Thu, 1st May 2014 10:30 pm 



“….Stuart Staniford convincingly demolishes the common prepper fantasy that we’ll all go back to the local farm as oil gets more scarce.”

Most preppers I know don’t have any “common prepper fantasy” about “what we’ll all do”. They’re focused on what they will do; are already doing. I spent the day weeding and mulching blueberries, transplanted some raspberries, built a new raised bed and put in 50 row-feet of potatoes, all within a few feet of the house.

As for “…the entire country will become a food desert…”, I’ve surrounded our entire home with edibles (many native volunteers) that provide quality food whether or not we’re here to eat it.

I think these authors are prone to projecting their own lack of preparations on the rest of us. Maybe their location just sucks.

Makati1 on Thu, 1st May 2014 10:57 pm 



Today’s industrial ‘food’ is already hardly above sawdust

Joe Clarkson on Thu, 1st May 2014 11:23 pm 



Aloha ghung,

Agreed. Their location sucks. The article does speak to the circumstances of the vast majority of Americans, certainly everyone in a city. They will have to live with their choice of residence.

But for those of us who left the city long ago and, like you, are trying to create the opposite of a ‘food desert’on our rural patch of land, this article only results in a shake of the head and fleeting sympathy for those whose lives are totally dependent on the supermarket.

‘Reversibility may be a fantasy, but I’m already back on “the local farm”.

Shaved Monkey on Fri, 2nd May 2014 12:30 am 



I doubt expensive oil will make industrial agriculture cheaper,it will just make victory gardens and home cooking more abundant.

DC on Fri, 2nd May 2014 12:59 am 



Article says,”The growing hunger of the public will not result in increasing food prices or food scarcity, it will see decreasing food quality. More hormone rich meat, genetically modified, chemically enhanced fruit and veg, and sub-par processed foods.”

We dont have to wait for that future to arrive-its here-NOW. Today. Head over to Wall-Mart if you dont believe it. I dont dispute it can and will get worse under our current system. We value strip malls and ‘housing developments’ more than we value good farmland. And ‘we’ actively punish people for trying to grow their own food(unless you’re a corporate chemo-agri-farm of course). How many ‘foods’ in the stores are empty carbs and starches, filled with mystery chemicals that trick our brains into thinking, ‘Im full’?

Industrial ag will never be ‘profitable’ Its not profitable now. Only thing keeping it alive is the mass of hidden and overt subsidies ‘given’ to it by corrupt governments. You can make anything look good with unlimited subsidies and monopoly controls.

Meld on Fri, 2nd May 2014 2:52 am 



Whilst I agree that this is what is happening currently and has actually been happening ever since mankind began modifying crops to be bigger (fucking pointless) This won’t continue indefinitely. As DC says farming hasn’t been sustainable or profitable for years, its a big fat subsidized con.

farmlad on Fri, 2nd May 2014 3:47 am 



corn ethanol would first need to start showing a better ff conversion, to really start becoming viable.

rockman on Fri, 2nd May 2014 6:04 am 



“…we’ll end up in a world where even the upper class is priced out of Whole Foods and ends up eating the…equivalent of inner-city gas station food…” I wonder if this fool has ever shopped at Whole Foods or paid for a Slim Jim at the Chevron station? LOL. Now that we have a Trader Joe’s we don’t even hit WF for specialty items much anymore. But if we did our cost per calorie would still be much less than at a convenience story. But the bulk of our food comes from the local supermarket. And one can feed a family of 5 with a healthy and satisfying meal for what supper at McD’s would cost one person. All one has to do is be willing to spend a little time in the kitchen.

His view also seems a tad racist/elitist. Fast/junk food is doing just fine in more affluent areas just as in his “ghettos”. From what I’ve observed there is no color barrier when it comes to bad food choices.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 2nd May 2014 6:21 am 



A PO commentary by a techno-fantasy university brain. These people live in a bubble like many of the economist we have around today. They cannot see the forest for the trees. They may be intelligent but they are produced by a system that has lost its way. Modern education is like other modern establishments suffering diminishing returns. The modern education system that cannot grasp the predicament we are in except by using status quo BAU thinking. This leads to this individual to think when the decent comes we will see more biofuels because that is how status quo BAU will react to less oil. This thinker fails to connect the dots of the energy intensity of biofuel production. The author thinks we will still have junk food because it is supposedly the more efficient way of producing food. He mentions:

More hormone rich meat, genetically modified, chemically enhanced fruit and veg, and sub-par processed foods. This influx of “cheap” food, with the more expensive organic options being far out of the price range of the poor, will result in an epidemic of diabetes and other health complications for the common people.

That is status quo BAU currently at its entropic hights. What is coming is less with less. What is coming is irrational shortages initially revolving around distribution not production. Eventually the processed foods, junk foods, GM, cheap Asian toxic shit, and hormone meats. Folks these are the high dollar foods subsidized by fossil Fuels. Locally farm grown produce is cheap by comparison. The problem will be the sheer size of the problem of the transition to food that can be grown with less FF and that needed to supply current demand. Yes, prices will sky rocket relative to the rest of the economy. For reasons of availability and time spent obtaining food. There is an opportunity cost to an economy if people are spending a significant portion of their time securing and preparing food. Food needs and cost will become a significant part of peoples budget. This will also facilitate a great transition to the land for many unemployed urban dwellers. If we are lucky and the initial decent, landing, and reboot is gentle and short enough to allow a rational transition to the land. Folks food is the weak link that will bring down modern status quo BAU. The costs to food production are far greater than one thinks. Currently it is a part of a global distribution system and industrial processing industry. Look at something as simple as flour, oils, and meats. These items that could very easily be locally produced low energy intensity items are the opposite. They are now energy intensive and efficient but also not sustainable or resilient without cheap energy. Look towards global overshoot locations like Africa and Asia for food insecurity and famine. Look to a breakdown in the high standard of living in the developed west because of the end of cheap easy to get food. Europe, NA, and South America have the significant excess food surpluses for export but this will end and it will turn into a struggle to feed the urban dwellers without a modern effective distribution system. So, consequently, wheat in Kansas and want of bread in Chicago. Gardens and local production will be essential but can in no way scale up to the challenges ahead. Even preppers will eventually suffer hunger because they cannot cover all the needs. Preppers may have a few months supply but when that runs out the best most will be able to cover is 50% or less of nutritional needs. Preppers are not the Amish and have a community of support. Preppers tend to be lone wolves in the deserts of BAU. At least the preppers will have some needs covered and skills to do more. The other problem with preppers will be beggers and predators. But at least preppers have something currently, the attitude/skills, and the physical resource base to draw on. Food insecurity will most likely be the end of BAU. Food insecurity will be caused by PO dynamics or financial contraction but when it hits it is the nail in the coffin of status quo BAU!

Pops on Fri, 2nd May 2014 10:53 am 



Staniford moved to a farm as I remember. lol

Increasing protein consumption are driving much of the increased food costs.

So if PO crashes the economy, food overall will become cheaper simply because expensive protein will be off the menu and the result will be a surplus of grain – lower price.

Likewise, if PO actually crashes the economy I’m pretty sure folks will rediscover the economics of actually preparing their own food.

See
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/detail.aspx?chartId=40086

GregT on Fri, 2nd May 2014 11:39 am 



If anything, oil itself has made food less nutritious. Peak oil, will make it less affordable, and less available.

Nony on Fri, 2nd May 2014 9:06 pm 



This seems appropriate: 😉

http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2014/05/frac-attack.html