3 Reasons Peak Oil Might Not Be Such A Big Deal

“Peak oil” was one of the first terms I learned when I became active in environmental advocacy. There are a variety of definitions, depending on who you ask and how much money they’ve invested in the oil industry, but most parties agree that “peak oil” is the point at which the world exhausts the past bit of “cheap,” “easily-accessible” oil the planet has to offer.

Sure, there will still be oil left underground somewhere, but only the ultra wealthy will be able to afford it. This is why, in many minds, peak oil = the end of oil.

When the idea of peak oil is discussed, it’s traditionally been met with a mixture of shock, awe and terror. In case you haven’t noticed, most of the developed world is pretty addicted to oil. The idea that it could run out, probably within the next generation or two, doesn’t sit well with those who can’t imagine producing power or plastic any other way.

According to a recent study from Stanford University, however, our fear of peak oil might be a little premature. It assumes that consumption will continue to skyrocket until the very last drop is squeezed from the earth. Surprisingly, the study concludes that a variety of economic and societal factors will collide, forcing a switch to alternatives before that point.

Published in Environmental Science & Technology, the study’s authors point out at least 3 different mechanisms that give them reason to believe that we’ll be done with oil before it’s done with us.

1. Declining Passenger Travel

There’s no denying that mobile technologies have made it easier to work, play and connect without traveling around the world. The workforce is increasingly made up of remote and freelance workers who can work from anywhere there’s a laptop and an internet connection. Need to have a meeting with a client in Des Moines? Just hop on Skype instead of a plane.

“Several earlier studies have suggested that passenger land travel has already plateaued in industrialized countries and is no longer hitched to economic growth,” explain the authors. “Passenger land travel now accounts for about half of the global transportation energy demand. Even in developing countries, economic growth has been less oil-intensive than was seen in the West during the past century.”

2. Competitive Green Alternatives

Cleaner, more environmentally-friendly methods of producing fuel and electrical energy appear on the market every day. Although “oil is cheaper” has long been the battle cry of the fossil fuel crowd, it holds less weight with every passing day. Solar and wind power are both approaching grid parity with blazing speeds, as we reported last month, and technologies for storing the energy generated by solar panels and wind turbines are developing just as quickly.

“Technological advances and the high price of oil are helping most such alternatives compete on price,” write the authors. “If prices rise above their current levels for an extended period, we’re likely to see even more efforts to improve efficiency and exploit alternatives to conventional oil. That would hasten the onset of a demand-driven peak.”

Then there’s the auto industry itself, which has made a decided shift toward hybrid and electric vehicles. In 2012, analyst firm Mintel estimated that “sales of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric cars in the US would exceed 535,000 units in 2013, a sizable increase on the 440,000 sold last year. Sales of hybrids and electric cars rose 73 per cent in 2012, making it the fastest growing segment in the US auto market.”

3. Climate Awareness

Thanks to the tireless work of climate activists, and people like you and me who talk with our friends about how personal choices affect the climate, awareness is growing. And slowly, but surely, that awareness is turning into action.

Just look at the way grassroots activism has blown the lid off of the Keystone XL pipeline and the larger debate over the Canadian oil sands. Or the global divestment movement that has seen dozens of universities, religious organizations and City governments pull their money out of the fossil fuel industry. We’ve even seen the President of the United States announce a “climate action plan,” the first time in American history that human-accelerated climate change has been formally addressed as a national issue.

The study forecasts global oil demand through 2100 under a variety of scenarios for economic growth, population, efficiency gains and fuel substitution. Interested parties can input their own assumptions into the study’s model here.

9 Comments on "3 Reasons Peak Oil Might Not Be Such A Big Deal"

efsome on Mon, 29th Jul 2013 6:23 pm 



“forcing a switch to alternatives before that point.”

If alternative is ; living in carrying capacity, not polluting the biosphere (sorry, nuclear&panels&turbines still pollute), increasing biodiversity&food forests, stop bad agricultural practices (tilling, burning crop residues, huge monocrops, gmo etc), yep it’s a good idea!

Btw first thing i thought..hmm did Arthur write this article? seems not 🙂

Arthur on Mon, 29th Jul 2013 7:55 pm 



@efsome, haha, it is always amazing if somebody complete unknown to me, knows my opinions better than some of my friends.

But indeed, no inevitable ‘Four Horsemen’ scenario’s for me. Not anymore. And certainly not for the developed world, and maybe the effects for the rest during the transition will not be that bad after all. The number of possibilities to cope with the situation are endless. There is no doubt that there is still a lot of potential for humanity for centuries to come, but first a lot of grave problems need to be addressed (climate change, population growth, resource depletion). That does not mean that desasters like war of financial collapse are impossible, they are even quit certain. But a premature demise of humans, no.

rollin on Mon, 29th Jul 2013 10:04 pm 



Yes, there are wonderful inventions out there to help mitigate some of our predicaments. The problem is that far too much energy and money is being used to compete in the global market with non-essential items and far too little is being applied to prevention and mitigation. This slows the rate of progress and even eliminates some very important strategic changes. Too slow is a major problem, timing is everything.

GregT on Mon, 29th Jul 2013 10:18 pm 



This article is full of misconceptions.

“most parties agree that “peak oil” is the point at which the world exhausts the past bit of “cheap,” “easily-accessible” oil the planet has to offer.”

Peak Oil: The point in time when the global production of oil will reach its maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline.

“Sure, there will still be oil left underground somewhere, but only the ultra wealthy will be able to afford it.”

When it requires more oil energy to extract the oil, than the extracted oil contains, the oil will stay in the ground, period. EROEI<1

"peak oil = the end of oil"

Peak Oil: The point in time when the global production of oil will reach its maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline. It does not mean the end of oil.

"The idea that it could run out, probably within the next generation or two"

If we continue to use conventional oil at the rate that we are now, conventional oil will completely run out in about 24 years. We will stop extracting that oil far before it runs out however, due to EROEI.

"consumption will continue to skyrocket until the very last drop is squeezed from the earth."

When it requires more oil energy to extract the oil, then the extracted oil contains, the oil will stay in the ground, period. EROEI<1

"economic and societal factors will collide, forcing a switch to alternatives before that point"

Alternatives will never replace oil in many of it's current uses. Pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, insecticides, lubricants, and chemicals, to name a few.

"There’s no denying that mobile technologies have made it easier to work, play and connect"

Play and connect perhaps. Without energy and natural resources to drive the economy, most of the jobs in the consumer, and service sectors, will dry up. The word 'work' will return back to it's original meaning; to exert energy.

"Even in developing countries, economic growth has been less oil-intensive than was seen in the West during the past century.”

Thanks to the efficiencies gained through the technologies that oil has afforded us.

"“If prices rise above their current levels for an extended period, we’re likely to see even more efforts to improve efficiency and exploit alternatives to conventional oil."

If prices rise above their current levels for an extended period of time, our economies will disintegrate even faster than they already are. The higher the price of oil, the higher the costs involved in building alternate energy infrastructure. All current alternate energy infrastructures require oil.

“sales of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric cars in the US would exceed 535,000 units in 2013, a sizable increase on the 440,000 sold last year"

All automobile manufacturing requires oil. Even if it didn't, at the rate of 500,000 vehicles per year replacement, it would take over 300 years to replace the current fleet of vehicles in the US alone.

"Thanks to the tireless work of climate activists, and people like you and me who talk with our friends about how personal choices affect the climate, awareness is growing. And slowly, but surely, that awareness is turning into action."

We have been told that in order to stop 'catastrophic' climate change, we need to end all CO2 emissions by 2025. The goal was to decrease emissions, year by year. Over the past three years emissions have been increasing by around 6 percent per year. Catastrophic means a planet unfriendly to our very existence at best, and global mass extinction at worst. A 2 degree global mean temperature increase, will more than likely mean the end of all life on earth, and we are accelerating our likelihood of surpassing that temperature, within 30 years.

"We’ve even seen the President of the United States announce a “climate action plan,” the first time in American history that human-accelerated climate change has been formally addressed as a national issue."

Addressing an issue, and doing something about it, are two entirely different things. No steps are being taken at all, as a matter of fact, we are doing exactly the opposite of what we need to do.

BillT on Tue, 30th Jul 2013 1:28 am 



Well done GregT! This is from another group who think tech is the answer and they don’t even look at the problems with an open mind or intelligence. Some cannot face reality, even when it will kill them if they don’t.

SilentRunning on Tue, 30th Jul 2013 4:23 am 



About the ONLY plan that has a chance of working is for radical reduction in oil & other hydrocarbons, radical reduction in consumer consumption of junk – coupled with an aggressive global 1 child per woman population control program.

Since that is extremely unlikely, we can all look forward to massive unrest, famine, war and ecological destruction.

Rioting in the streets – ala Egypt – will become an everyday occurrence – coupled with increasingly brutal regimes attempting to maintain some semblance of control. Don’t be too surprised to see the rebirth of the death camps to dispose of the “Scapegoats-du-jure”.

RICHARD RALPH ROEHL on Tue, 30th Jul 2013 6:47 am 



Stop and think carefully. When was the last time you saw a bumblebee buzzing around your garden?

Peak oil won’t matter if the biosphere of the Earth is so polluted with methane and CO2 that you gasp for breath… from lack of oxygen.

Beery on Tue, 30th Jul 2013 9:24 am 



“Stop and think carefully. When was the last time you saw a bumblebee buzzing around your garden?”

Yesterday.

shortonoil on Tue, 30th Jul 2013 4:27 pm 



Peak Oil is the mathematical description of a distribution (which makes it incomprehensible to about 99% of the population). It is mathematically guaranteed to occur. In fact, it came about seven years ago. Since then we have seen a decline in world trade, the insolvency of the banking and financial sectors, insolvency of sovereign nations, absurd monetary policies in an attempt to hide it, and a fall in disposable income. Every major economy in the world is now contracting. Technology can not rescue the world because our present technology is primarily a derivative of petroleum, and requires it for it itself to be sustained.

Coupled with the fact that we now have a population that can no longer be sustained without the energy input of petroleum, there is no bright side to this event!