2017: Oil price spike causes Worldwide Depression and Food shortages

8 Comments on "2017: Oil price spike causes Worldwide Depression and Food shortages"

Calhoun on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 7:09 am 



Very nice synopsis. Here’s one of my favorite quotes from the past:

Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, said in an e-mail to the company’s staff this week that output of conventional oil and gas was close to peaking. He wrote: “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”

link

Of course, the definition of “easy-to-access” is left to the reader. But I think it’s fair to say that, by any reasonable definition, that time has come. For the past five years we have been living in a situation where high prices have produced just enough oil to keep things from totally falling apart. I believe the next five years will see us leave that uncomfortable “comfort” zone and head into unmitigated decline which no amount of government money printing will be able to “paper” over.

Makati1 on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 7:19 am 



2017 may be optimistic…

Northwest Resident on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 10:48 am 



Calhoun — “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”

I wonder if shale/tar sands oil production falls under the category of “easy-to-access” in that quote from Jeroen van der Veer? Because in reality, today, the only thing that is preventing oil shortages is the stuff (termed oil) that is being squeezed out of rock in the shale plays.

I’ve been sticking my neck out and predicting 2015 as the year when serious oil shortfalls begin to hit, bringing stock market plunges, panic, gas lines, even more severe food shortages, credit freezes — basically, all the bad stuff, including the guy in the black hooded gown carrying the reaper.

When in the Joint Operating Environment of 2010, the US Military strategic planners mentioned 2015 as a possible “as soon as” year when oil shortages begin to hit with all the accompanying security implications, I took note. Since then, 2015 has popped up in numerous places, from credible sources. Nothing may end up happening in 2015, but I’m doing everything I can to “get ready” for 2015, and I hope you are too.

Steve on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 4:20 pm 



I guess it depends on where you live…Pakistan 2014…u.s 2016 …Europe 2015….Philippines 2014…….

Calhoun on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 7:42 pm 



I think 2015 is a good guess, 2017 is a safer bet. Either way I don’t foresee a stock market crash — the major players are vigilant enough now and know how to keep the market afloat. However, I could foresee a stagnant market while high inflation eats away at asset values — kind of the same thing but without the drama.

In my humble and all-too-human opinion, the real pain will come after 2020. Once we hit 3% to 5% actual declines in world production there will be no way to control the outcomes.

Makati1 on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 8:37 pm 



Steve, are you Davy’s neighbor? LOL

The Ps are doing very well, thank you. As they consume only 400,000 bbls/day of oil vs the US 18,890,000 bbls/day. Oil could go to $150 or even $200/bbl and they would just do fine. Most Filipinos do NOT own any oil burning vehicles or equipment. They have no credit bills to pay off, no bank account, and few have mortgages.

If you are an average American, you do not know what financial independence really means as you have not been free since your first car or college loan. You have always been a debt slave to the Banksters. Been there, done that but I have been free for over seven years and it is great! Everything important to me fits in two suitcases. The rest could be abandoned at anytime and not missed. My tax return is the easiest possible and still be a citizen of the US. So, why would I ever want to come back to the US? Certainly not to live. There is no real life there, only serfdom.

clueless on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 11:19 pm 



Steve…you’ll be in FEMA camp sooner than you and Davey expect. Get ready with your passport, and your visa to Mexico, or wherever Thirdish world country you both fancy, bec. third world will be both your haven. Bwahahahahahahhaa.

Davy on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 6:43 am 



Mak and Clue, one of the most basic of human nature is jealousy and you are both guilty of it. Mak, the P’s are a time bomb for a failed state. The Philippians have all the ingredients of a potential failed state. This is true in the US regionally for example Las Vegas region but the US as a whole will have pockets of stability. It will take food and liquid fuel shortages first in the P’s to bring collapse on there. The P’s basic ingredient for collapse is overshoot of carrying capacity and nowhere for the population to move to. The P’s is not significant on the world stage and will be triaged out of the system by not being vital to the global economic system having nothing to export except cloths, cheap electronics and some food it will need locally with food shortages.