Peak Oil is You
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Page added on December 10, 2015
$100 never again
The crash in oil (CLF16.NYM) has rocked commodities markets as crude prices hover near the lowest level in seven years.
Fadel Gheit, managing director and senior analyst at Oppenheimer, told Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous in the video above that $100-per-barrel oil is a thing of the past—$60 to $70 per barrel is the new normal.
“When I look at the spread going forward, it does not look good,” Gheit said. “It’s not likely that we’ll see a recovery soon.”
OPEC’s decision on Friday to forgo cuts in oil production in the face of a global supply glut has added to the downward pressure on crude, creating more uncertainty in global markets.
“OPEC is at an impasse. It’s a divided group,” Gheit said. “Saudi Arabia has an agenda. They want to weaken Russia, Iran, and shale producers in the U.S.”
The massive boom of U.S. shale oil that has flooded the market has sent prices plummeting 65% over the past 18 months. OPEC did not anticipate the shale revolution and is now struggling to find a strategic response.
While Gheit warns of some downside risk to prices, he does not anticipate a major drop in the short term.
“Oil prices could fall lower in 2016,” Gheit said. “I’m talking $2 to $3 dollars per barrel. I don’t see it dropping below $30 per barrel.”
The decline in crude has had a big impact on major oil companies. Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Chevron (CVX) have crashed as the pain from lower prices spreads.
“Producers have already seen a collapse in earnings, and we expect weakness to continue into next year,” Gheit said. “Most independent oil and gas producers in the U.S. are in the red. They’re losing money.”
But it’s not all bad news. A drop in crude means lower gas prices, so Americans are not digging as deep into their wallets at the pump.
“This is a big break for the taxpayer,” Gheit said. “The average American family will save between $700 to $800 per year as a result of a drop in oil prices.”
72 Comments on "$100 never again"
Apneaman on Fri, 11th Dec 2015 1:27 pm
“The system as a whole has shown resilience.”
Sure it has twocats. What about the millions of people who have been thrown under the bus, including the middle class, to keep it going. So you are OK with bailing the criminal banks out for the sake of the system? ZIRP for 7-8 years is a sign of resiliency? Ever more debt – national, state, municipal and household? A trillion in student loans, yet very few jobs to show for it? Subprime lending for consumer goodies – 7 years to finance a car? And of course the almost complete neglect of the infrastructure that the entire thing depends on. Then there is the ever increasing environmental destruction from fracking et al – like earthquakes and polluted water sources, tailing pond breeches and all round pollution combined with frankenfoods making people sicker every year, especially the kids who are now being born with industrial diseases. The medical system is also tethering. Next we have government spying, corruption, police shooting citizens daily and more folks turning to addiction, suicide and killing each other all at an ever increasing pace. What you call resilience, I call, desperation, oppression, irresponsibility, pretending, lying, stealing and kicking the can/passing the buck to the next generation or hoping to. I think you have your head as far up your ass as boat does. Whatever makes one feel best is the order of the day eh?
America’s GPA: D+
Estimated Investment Needed by 2020:
$3.6 Trillion
http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/grades/
Waiting for Collapse: USA Debt Bombs Bursting
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/09/23/waiting-for-collapse-usa-debt-bombs-bursting/
Bad bridges: Federal data shows US infrastructure crumbling
“More than 61,000 bridges throughout the United States are “structurally deficient” and in need of serious repair, a national association of builders has warned, citing government statistics.”
https://www.rt.com/usa/246041-deficient-bridges-usa-infrastructure/
America Goes Nuts
http://hipcrime.blogspot.de/2015/07/america-goes-nuts.html
Davy on Fri, 11th Dec 2015 1:36 pm
Two cats, fair enough, I see mixed signals on the strength of the status quo but not longer term. There are too many converging negatives across the spectrum making 10 years out precarious.
My point is the variables for collapse are there now like never before. These are global and all inclusive. In the past this collapse possibility was really only NUK war related now it is economic and oil related. Increasingly it is related to climate, ecosystem, and overpopulation.
Just so some of you know I have a wonderful life. I am in great health. I have a great family. Why the hell would I want all that to suffer. I default to realism and risk management. This is why I doom. Please deliver me from doom if you can. Nobody on this board has had any luck with that in 2 1/2 years I have been here. In fact the situation is deteriorating since I first started dooming here.
Apneaman on Fri, 11th Dec 2015 1:42 pm
Boat, it’s not 1929 and it’s not 1950. Why don’t you point out that 1929 led to fascism in many parts of the globe and WWII. Lucky on one nation had nukes and that was at the very end. And there was not 7.4 billion people many living hi energy lifestyles with all the rest wanting to and all the low hanging fruit gone. And you are fucking clueless when it comes to AGW and overshoot in general. Like grammar you have decide that it won’t count until after you are gone because “they” are exaggerating. This in spite of the fact that somewhere on this planet a AGW disaster happens daily with many on going – like the drought in California. Hell there are simply too many to list, but this is what is happening near me. Low death toll, but more infrastructure destruction and damaged and ruined homes.
I know, I know it doesn’t count because you are only paying $1,68 for gas.
Storms kill 2 in Oregon; rare tornado hits Washington town
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/10/us/northwest-weather-deaths/
Washington governor declares state of emergency after storms
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/washington-governor-declares-state-of-emergency-after-heavy-rain/
twocats on Fri, 11th Dec 2015 7:35 pm
Davy, I think we can agree. Yep moving forward, and a lot of the stressors that Apneaman is bringing up, are all coming to a head. This next year will be a big test for the status quo.
I personally went from a more “thinking collapse is imminent” in 2005 to a more “step down” model that you’ve mentioned in the past and its an idea that’s been out there (Kunstlers the Long Emergency was written in 2005). I retrained from an office/operations admin to an electrical technician, after first going through a mini-survivalist phase. Part of the failure of that phase was I didn’t connect with a community that was similarly interested. If you can fit those preparations into an actual social structure, then I think that’s best. So do I agree ultimately with Apneaman that this sucker could blow at any minute and that it is showing serious signs of distress? Yes! Do I see it limping along for another 10 years? Possibly yes.
makati1 on Fri, 11th Dec 2015 8:13 pm
twocats, I too see 2017 as a big year for events. That TPTB have managed to postpone the inevitable this long has been amazing. The black swans are running out of sky and when they start bumping into each other, sooner or later one will fall and set off the final days. Should be exciting. If not next year, then soon. Buckle up!
GregT on Fri, 11th Dec 2015 8:38 pm
“Do I see it limping along for another 10 years? Possibly yes.”
I would tend to agree with you twocats. Given everything that is going on in the world today, and after giving much consideration to all of it, my best guesstimate for TEOTWAWKI would be around 2025, with plenty of continued downward motion in the interim. I am also not in the total collapse is imminent camp, but I’m not going to rule it out. That being said, the longer it takes the better. I’m not the least bit looking forward to what is coming down the pipeline.
GregT on Fri, 11th Dec 2015 9:49 pm
Missed this one,
Thanks Apnea.
“Sure it has twocats. What about the millions of people who have been thrown under the bus, including the middle class, to keep it going. So you are OK with bailing the criminal banks out for the sake of the system? ZIRP for 7-8 years is a sign of resiliency? Ever more debt – national, state, municipal and household? A trillion in student loans, yet very few jobs to show for it? Subprime lending for consumer goodies – 7 years to finance a car? And of course the almost complete neglect of the infrastructure that the entire thing depends on. Then there is the ever increasing environmental destruction from fracking et al – like earthquakes and polluted water sources, tailing pond breeches and all round pollution combined with frankenfoods making people sicker every year, especially the kids who are now being born with industrial diseases. The medical system is also tethering. Next we have government spying, corruption, police shooting citizens daily and more folks turning to addiction, suicide and killing each other all at an ever increasing pace. What you call resilience, I call, desperation, oppression, irresponsibility, pretending, lying, stealing and kicking the can/passing the buck to the next generation or hoping to. I think you have your head as far up your ass as boat does. Whatever makes one feel best is the order of the day eh?”
Best post on this forum ever. So there isintelligent life on this planet after all. Too bad there’s so little of it.
makati1 on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 12:12 am
Well done, Ap! ^_^
JV153 on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 3:23 am
The huge deflationary signal is demographics. Old people don’t buy stuff… but the potential for China and India and the Middle East to continue growing their oil use remains enormous.
Davy on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 8:03 am
Two Cats, I appreciate your presence on the board. I hope we can interject more prepper ideas like we used to in the past. There are too few really good prep articles on the web-o-sphere. Sounds like you are on the right track. Your phase change occurred around the time mine did. I really started around 2000 in earnest but at that time the variables did not come together in focus. They were floating around and unconnected.
Peak oil and climate changed I studied in the late 80’s. I have always been interested in social justice. I had a course in Madrid Spain one summer when I took classes offered at a foreign extension programs by my University in St Louis. The class was comparative philosophies. I have always loved and read philosophy, theology, and various spiritualties. This guy was an Irish Jesuit priest who had just got back from a stint in South America preaching liberation theology. They guy sunk his hook in me on social injustice and the grotesque of rich consumptionism. I will always remember him saying “why do we need more and varied varieties of food processors? Why do we even need food processors when people are starving?”
My biggest influence recently has been Korowiczs and his systematic look at our current predicament. Hienberg and Kunstler and the whole early peak oil movement have shaped my thinking early on. Our board Ape man has given me some good climate change info recently I have been getting up to speed on. I like Zero Hedge for the alternative financial side of doom. No I don’t believe everything ZH says but they offer an alternative just as I read RT daily along with Fox.
I went through a phase in 2003 -2005 when the early peak oil movement and Kunstler “long emergency” movement began to bubble up on the net. The web at that time was allowing so much voice to collect on topics the main stream ignored. I became a bit of an extremist at that time. I took some very drastic actions. I put my money where my mouth was. I dumped a high paying job and began my new lifestyle of simplicity, relative sacrifice, and collapsing in place. I was talking the same talk many others were with the impending 08 crisis. This was both peak oil and financial related. We almost blew then. It was very close.
In the early 80’s I was firmly a globalist. I believed globalism would solve the problems of social injustice and inequality. It seemed like increasing prosperity and education could lift the world out of the injustice and poverty that was everywhere. When communism fell near the end of the 80’s then I believed maybe we all could embrace that system to make a difference. I was living and working in Europe at the time learning German and Spanish cultures. Well we saw how that went down the shitter with financialization of greed and the American neocon’s endless wars.
I am here and now seeing a great unraveling of a system that supports an overpopulated and over dependent human global system. We have next to no plan B’s at the leadership level. We have changes that could be made that would make a vital difference for many but for the most part there are just too many people for any action to matter. What we have to do now, at least the enlightened ones, is construct the modern “monastery” of knowledge and tech that will help us through the transition from modern man to postmodern.
I am not sure what postmodern will be but I can tell you it will be a lot less of what we have today and a lot more of what they had in the 18th century. For us over the next 10-20 years we are going to have a hybrid of scenarios if a long emergency develops. We will have to use the modern with the old pre modern to feed and shelter. This will be a hybrid affair. We will have no choice but to use both worlds in a hybrid way because the world has been so completely humanized and sanitized of natural diversity. This is why it is so important for us to get a message out now.
It is likely the net will go unstable. I can see the grid going unstable. Consumerism will begin to decay or end completely. We are going to be left with what we have and the ideas in our heads. These leftovers will decay quickly. It takes complexity to maintain knowledge. We are going to get a steady diet of decay, abandonment, and dysfunction. We may fall apart quickly and there is a 50-50 chance of this because we are dealing with the unpredictable of human nature. We can make better or worse choices now that will be magnified later. This is at multiple levels.
We know the leadership level will likely not make good decisions. They might make better ones when we go into crisis or we may enter that period of resource and idea wars that will take us down quickly. There will be no winners in a world war either hot, cold or trade wars. We are too interconnected and overpopulated anymore. We can make a difference at the community level and especially at the personal level. Now is the time because from here on out as the economic decay goes from recession to depression to collapse our resources both abstract, soft, and hard will be disappearing. The info off this board may be gone as an example of the soft. The ability to buy prep items off Amazon or go to Lowes may be gone. Now is the time to get ready.
Kenz300 on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 9:46 am
Banks have quit lending to high cost producers……
High yield bonds are riskier every day………
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child…………
onlooker on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 10:48 am
I think this statement that “never again $100 dollars per barrel of oil is a concession that we are NOT getting out of this latest recession/depression. In related news the ECB dashes hopes of investors with regards to stimulus.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/stocks-plunge-as-ecb-dashes-stimulus-hopes/news-story/bb90e54e60f848a3766a02ba49b4cfaf?=
Looks like the lending/borrowing spigot is beginning to close.
indigo on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 12:22 pm
What a stunningly excellent piece from Davy on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 8:03 am
You really need to formulate these thoughts more, and write a longer piece Davy.
The ‘monastery’ or repository of knowledge is something that has occurred to me, but the problem is that those of us who are aware, are unfortunately quite widely dispersed. How do we arrange our lives to connect with like minded individuals at what might be a few days or weeks notice?
I have no family, friends or acquaintances that ‘get it’. What is worse, even those that *do* get it, (as even on this board have shown), we have the problem of working out the timing and intensity of unfolding events. Will ‘collapse’ resemble a shark bite gripping us by the thigh suddenly at some time in the next six months, or will collapse feel more like a thousand tiny Piranha bites eating at our society and structures over 20 years? I suspect the latter.
Keep up the good work. Knowledge for sure is not a guarantee, but it is key to a better likelihood of making it through whatever is ahead.
indigo / Manchester / UK
Davy on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 1:04 pm
Indigo, I was in Manchester back in the 90’s back when I sold heavy construction equipment for the pipeline industry. I wish I had more answers on connectivity of likeminded people. I am on a farm in the Ozarks of Missouri so I am somewhat isolated. My family is used to my preaching and sympathetic but they are locked in BAU. Most of them live in St Louis which is 2 hour drive away. They like the fact I have set up a safe house for them. They do not really understand the subjects we deal with daily here. My parents are more worried about the elections than collapse issues.
In my local there are not many likeminded people. What I do like about my local is people here do not have much money so they manage best they can. They do anything to help get by. Everyone around me has gardens, chickens, and other food production.
Many of us will be lonely lifeboats when society decays. We just don’t know how society will decay like you mention with a big bite or a thousand bites. In the end all we can do is try. We can try to enjoy trying. I love my prep work. I feel I am doing something important for others. I feel I will make a difference for my family. The fact that I am simplifying in a relative way makes me feel like I am doing something for social justice and the health of Mother Nature.
I hope you fare well in the coming decline of modern man. Much will depend on luck for survival. If you can add your strengths to it than that may be enough. I will always preach the most important step to prep is your local. Your location and the people in that location will matter. People and place matter.
indigo on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 2:54 pm
“People and place matter.”
Indeed they do.
Like you Davy, I’m not naive. Circumstances will dictate the outcome. I have a longer term plan, [for a longer term collapse], and a shorter term plan.[for the SHTF] scenario. The longer term plan has several ‘branches’ of possibility which I will not elaborate upon. The shorter term plan involves a thirty foot boat that frankly, *I do not own*, but know how to sail, and a half dozen Scottish remote anchoring points to aim for. Got to say,.. that man Dimitri Orlov has a lot to answer for!!
I sincerely hope for the long term scenario, hoping that I can get many more friends to see what is ahead. But if it comes to the short term scenario, I guess, we must do as best we can.?
indigo
ennui2 on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 5:44 pm
Oil goes to $147, peakers quake in their boots.
Oil goes to $30, peakers suddenly think they are economic geniuses and quake in their boots over deflation.
Sorry. It’s an oil glut, and peakers can’t deal with reality.
GregT on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 6:06 pm
Oil goes to $147, the world enters into a global financial crisis.
Oil pulls back to $35, and the world still cannot recover from that global financial crisis.
Sorry, the damage has been done, and ennui2 probably thinks that is a peaker tinfoil hat conspiracy theory. Like everything else that he finds too uncomfortable to question.
Apneaman on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 6:12 pm
ennui2, your the one quaking in your boots. That is evident by the recent up tick in your meaningless comments. Scared shitless and babbling. Peakers said this squawk squawk. Peakers said that squawk squawk. Who can’t deal with reality? It’s just a glut says planty Jr. Tell yourself squawk squawk.
peakyeast on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 6:16 pm
Peakers dont quake in their boots. Simply because peakers are mentally prepared for anything – including BAU.
makati1 on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 8:49 pm
Speaking of being prepared.
Are you keeping up on your dental, visual and physical health along with your mental health?
I broke a tooth crown recently and was reminded that things like dentistry, that we take for granted, will also disappear for the most part when the SHTF. Why? Lack of ability to get supplies for simple things like fillings or the wearing out, breaking of the irreplaceable equipment.
Then there are visual needs that most over 50 already need and many younger also. No lens makers in your town with healthy glass supplies and durable machines to grind and polish it? Better get an extra pair now. Even cheap drugstore reading glasses will make a difference someday. How-to books are useless if you cannot read them.
And meds speak for themselves. How many lives will end within weeks of the local pharmacy closing for good? Many, I am sure.
makati1 on Sat, 12th Dec 2015 8:55 pm
BTW: Recent US research has shown that most meds are still effective after 10 years of storage although they will lose some of their potency. Only those requiring refrigeration or some such special storage will expire near their posted date.
Davy on Sun, 13th Dec 2015 9:49 am
December 16, 2015—–When The End Of The Bubble Begins”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/december-16-2015-when-the-end-of-the-bubble-begins/
“Don’t they know what happened to the $3.5 trillion of central bank credit they have digitally printed since September 2008? Do they really think that fully $2.8 trillion of it just recycled right back to the New York Fed as excess bank reserves? That is, no harm, no foul and no inflation? The monetary equivalent of a tree falling in an empty forest? To the contrary, how about recognizing the letter “f” for fungibility. What all that “excess” is about is collateral, not idle money. The $2.8 trillion needed an accounting domicile—so “excess reserves” was as good as any. But from a financial point of view it amounted to a Big Fat Bid for existing inventories of stocks and bonds. Stated more directly, Wall Street margined the Fed’s gift of collateral, and did so over and over in an endless chain of rehypothecation.”
“At the end of the day, the Fed will not be able to bribe the money market higher in a manner that is politically feasible. So it will be forced to repair to the old fashioned recipe——-draining cash from the Wall Street dealer markets.”
“When the US economy joins the worldwide slide into deflationary recession some time next year, this will all be academic anyway. But in the interim you haven’t seen nothing yet in terms of Fedspeak gibberish and cacophony.”
“The fact, that the junk bond market is already falling apart and CCC yields have soared back to 17% is not just due to an isolated bust in the shale patch; its a warning that the hunt for yield that massive central bank financial repression triggered in the financial markets is about ready to become a stampede for the exists.”
“So get ready for the monetary gong show which starts next week. This week’s Commerce Department report on total business sales and inventories further confirmed that the inventory to sales ratio is now decidedly in the recession red zone. This means that the Fed’s liquidity draining moves will join hands with rising risks of recession. Can the third great bubble of this century survive a Fed that finally wants to get off the zero bound after its way too late, but can’t do it anyway without a massive crash inducing cash drain from Wall Street? And in the teeth of the next recession to boot? Yes, the end of the bubble does begin on December 16th.”