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Page added on July 15, 2013
10 Points To Consider In The Natural-Gas-Vehicle Debate
The perception of natural gas as a mainstream fuel for vehicles runs the gamut, dependent upon where you live: from the improbable… to the viable… to the everyday reality. So from recent burrito research expeditions, here are ten points to stir up the melding pot of the great natural gas vehicle debate.
1) Here is a breakdown of the total number of natural gas vehicles globally. The key takeaways: there are A LOT of natural gas vehicles already in the world (15 millionish in 2011) and the number is rapidly increasing. However, there are relatively few in North America (aka, the tiny sliver at the bottom of the chart).
2) In a recent IEA report, natural gas use in road transport accounted for 1.4% of global gas demand in 2012. This is projected to rise to 2.5% by 2018, accounting for nearly 10% of total natural gas demand growth.
3) The number of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) in the world could reach 65 million by 2020, according to the International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles (IANGV), which indicates an annual growth rate of 19%. Another study by Navigant Consulting puts this number at a much more modest (but still impressive) 35 million.
4) China is leading the charge in both total natural gas demand growth (accounting for 30% of global growth over the next five years) and natural gas demand growth for transportation, with consumption from the sector set to triple by 2018.
5) China already has 1.5 million natural gas vehicles on the road, and if its ambitious targets are achieved, it will be substituting 840,000 barrels of oil by 2030. That said, for this to occur it would need to see a tenfold increase in consumption from the vehicle sector.
6) The current leaders in terms of natural gas vehicles are Iran (2.86 million), Pakistan (2.85 million), Argentina (1.9 million), and Brazil (1.7 million). These four account for 60% of the total global count.
7) The number of natural gas vehicles in the US is now estimated at 250,000. According to the EIA, April’s natural gas vehicle fuel consumption was 2.7 Bcf for the entire month. This equates to 0.1% of total US consumption.
8) The US is seeing the most growth coming through from transit vehicles, with one in five now running on natural gas (although according to Twitter it is now one in three). There has been a flurry of companies such as Frito-Lay and Proctor & Gamble announcing recently that they are converting parts of their fleets to run on natural gas.
9) But just as studies on LNG exports have indicated that natural gas prices will be relatively unaffected, natural gas prices are projected to see a limited impact by rising demand from the transportation sector. All the while, by 2035 we should still see 99% of US vehicles powered by fossil fuels.
10) Finally, given the optimistic numbers presented above (well, I’m more bullish on NGVs than when I started this piece!), it seems prudent to highlight the harshest reality faced, at least by the US: that of infrastructure. According to the IEA, it can cost from $400,000 to $1.7 million to build a compressed-natural-gas filling station, and up to $4 million for a liquefied-natural-gas station. By comparison, a gasoline station costs from $50,000 to $150,000.
9 Comments on "10 Points To Consider In The Natural-Gas-Vehicle Debate"
Shaved Monkey on Mon, 15th Jul 2013 10:42 pm
Just over 3% of Australian Cars run on LPG
Virtually 100% of the Taxi fleet.
The infrastructure is everywhere
Plantagenet on Mon, 15th Jul 2013 11:49 pm
Its time for Obama to stop pushing the $100,000 Tesla as an answer to America’s energy problems, and start promoting cheap, efficient and clean NG cars instead.
DC on Tue, 16th Jul 2013 12:56 am
NG is neither Cheap(damage is externalized like all other FF extraction,nor is it particularly efficient(especially when it comes to pushing 3 ton lumps of metal and rubber along oil soaked roadways), and its most definitely not ‘clean'(just a different kind of dirty).
BillT on Tue, 16th Jul 2013 2:45 am
First: A standard 1 pump gasoline station has NOT been that cheap in many years.You could not put a gas typical tank in the ground for less than $50K today. And you need 3 (Reg.,Plus, and diesel)not one. Then add on the pumps, power, building, etc. PLUS the land zoned for commercial and combustibles ( a prime location can cost $1M+).
Maybe you could do a down and dirty (cheap) station for $250 – $300 but it would not be in business long without the sideline business, selling other ‘stuff’ which requires a larger building with restrooms, etc. A cool million might put you in business in a year or two, IF you start now.
Second: It takes a rollover of at least 10 years to replace the vehicles on the road today. And that time will likely stretch the ‘new car’ time to a lot more as incomes drop.
Which brings me to the Third reason: Income. Much of the West is in a camouflaged Depression. Salaries are shrinking/disappearing all over the place and will continue to do so.
Number 9 may be correct as there may only be less than a million vehicles still on the road by then. but 22 years in the future is like forever…
rollin on Tue, 16th Jul 2013 3:01 am
In order for transportation in the US to run on natural gas, current production would have to double. Considering gas production has plateaued for the last eight months despite all this fracking, I doubt if they can come anywhere near replacing oil with natural gas. Consider also that companies want to export LNG which will deplete the domestic supply, NG will only ever play a limited role in transportation.
DC on Tue, 16th Jul 2013 4:02 am
Agreed. No one ever in these articles mentions how much more ‘new’ sustained production of NG would be required to actually power all those GM SUVs. I dont think doubling would come anywhere near what would be required, but like I say, no one ever ‘does the math’. Its always stated as a fact, (by some) that NG will just seamlessly take over for rigs, mobile trash cans, and even trains, and that there is enough NG about to power 100’s of millions of private trash-cans with NG for as long as we care to.
That notion, is rarely subjected to much scrutiny I notice…..
simon on Tue, 16th Jul 2013 12:18 pm
if this is treated like LPG then there are a load of car parks you cannot use. Also ferries, the channel tunnel etc.
just a thought
Kenz300 on Tue, 16th Jul 2013 1:48 pm
Diversify…diversify…diversify……
Natural Gas vehicles are growing in use, especially in large business fleet vehicles…..
Biofuels now displace 10% of the oil at your local filling station.
Electric, biofuel, flex-fuel, CNG, LNG and hydrogen fueled vehicles are growing in use.
The OIL monopoly on transportation fuel is ending and that is a good thing.
A monopoly is only good for the monopoly and not good for the consumer.
Others on Tue, 16th Jul 2013 11:14 pm
Those # for other countries are based on old data.
Here is the latest 1
http://www.ngvjournal.com/en/statistics/item/911-worldwide-ngv-statistics
Iran has 3.3 million
Pakistan has 1.1 million
Argentina has 2.2 million
Will it take only $50K to build a gas station. It needs an underground tank, motor, pump, meter and a canopy roof and all this will Top $200K just for 1 pump station.
Also for CNG, all it needs is a fast compressor which may cost around $100K and another 50K for other things will bring the bill to just $150K.