Macro drivers signal higher oil prices in 2022

While big macro drivers-including a weaker USD, inflation and monetary easing all point to higher oil prices in 2022, micro headwinds (Iran, India’s 2nd wave) may fade in the second half 2021, according to a new a BofA Global Research report. A post-Covid scenario marked by a permanent reduction in mass transit use could quickly […]

Could liquefied natural gas be one solution to climate change

Climate change and the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 have cast Canada’s oil and gas producers in the role of bad guys in black hats. Now, producers of natural gas hope to recast themselves as white-hatted good guys, with proposals for LNG (liquefied natural gas) ports on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. LNG would […]

$70 Oil, $200 Iron, $10000 Copper: Commodities Smash Milestones

When headline crude futures topped $70 a barrel on Tuesday, it was just the latest landmark in a banner year for raw materials. From copper to iron ore and oil, prices have rallied broadly in 2021, as the global economy emerges from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic and fires up demand. The Bloomberg Commodity […]

We’re returning to the ‘70s era of social decay, crime, and stagflation

The most dangerous part of the recently released 4.2% headline inflation, the highest since 2008, is the fact that higher labor costs haven’t even kicked in yet, said Scott Rothbort, president of LakeView Asset Management. Rothbort said that the economy is headed to a situation where we will have much higher inflation but low economic […]

The American infrastructure, ancient Rome and ‘Limits to Growth’

Infrastructure is the talk of the town in Washington, D.C. where I now live and with good reason. The infrastructure upon which the livelihoods and lives of all Americans depends is in sorry shape. The American Society of Civil Engineers 2021 infrastructure report card gives the United States an overall grade of C minus. Everyone […]

The Great Pause Week 61: Swallow the Doctor

“The first successful transubstantiation is estimated to happen around 2035. After that we will each be able to back ourselves up to the cloud, if we can afford the data plan.“ Elon Musk and Peter Diamandis, May 5, 2021 X-Prize Launch     Near the start of World War II, Robert A. Heinlein published a story […]

China Records Slowest Population Growth In Decades

China’s population grew at its slowest pace in decades, according to government data released on Tuesday. The average annual growth rate was 0.53% over the past 10 years, down from a rate of 0.57% between 2000 and 2010 – bringing the population to 1.41bn. The results add pressure on Beijing to boost measures for couples […]

More than 1,000 gas stations run out of fuel

More than 1,000 gas stations in the Southeast reported running out of fuel, primarily because of what analysts say is unwarranted panic-buying among drivers, as the shutdown of a major pipeline by a gang of hackers entered its fifth day Tuesday. Government officials acted swiftly to waive safety and environmental rules to speed the delivery […]

Oil buying accelerates amid growing confidence in economic recovery

Hedge funds boosted their position in petroleum for the fourth week running, as bullishness about oil consumption and prices rebounded after the setback in March. Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 40 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to May 4. Oil […]

East Coast Faces Fuel Shortage

Motorists from New York to Atlanta face a growing threat of fuel shortages and surging prices as a cyberattack that crippled North America’s biggest petroleum pipeline drags into its third day. Colonial Pipeline said on Sunday that it was still developing a plan for restarting the nation’s largest fuel pipeline — a critical source of […]

Michael Lynch: Peak Oil Demand, Really? Some Lessons From The Debate Over Peak Supply

Some recent headlines and quotes from the press: “Peak Oil is Suddenly Upon Us” (Bloomberg 12/1/20); “Even Exxon Mobil is Capitulating to Peak Oil Demand” (Bloomberg 12/1/20); “End Game for Oil? OPEC Prepares for an Age of Dwindling Demand,” (Reuters 7/28/20); “World has already passed peak oil, BP figures reveal” (CarbonTracker 9/15/20); “COVID-19 has brought peak […]

Jet Fuel Use Set to Surge 30% in USA

It’s the postponed weddings and family reunions. It’s meeting newborn grandchildren and attending memorial services for loved ones lost to the pandemic. It’s the rebooked trips to Maui and adventures in new cities. All that travel demand has been piling up for more than a year, and now it’s about to burst out into one […]

Coal Is Getting Even Closer to the End of Its Line

In 2020, Americans used 447 million short tons (to distinguish from metric tons) of coal. That’s enough to fill 4 million railroad cars, which sounds like a lot. But it’s also the country’s lowest annual coal consumption since 1965, and even that barely hints at the historical territory coal may soon explore. A few more […]

Living within our energy income

Traditional fiscal advice for a sustainable life style is to preserve your capital and live on your interest income. The cautionary tale is a person who burns through an inheritance, living beyond their income, and eventually winds up bankrupt. This same basic idea can be applied to natural resources and energy systems. Natural resources have […]

When Will Oil Demand Fully Recover?

As the Covid-19 pandemic began to spread last year, I developed an idea. I hypothesized that the pandemic would cause a permanent dent in oil demand. I covered that hypothesis in a couple of articles last year, including Will Covid-19 Hasten The Demise Of Fossil Fuels? My reasoning was that the large scale move to telework […]

Covid Boost for Global Car Sales to Spark a Surge in Oil Demand

It’s starting to feel as commonplace as handwashing: To protect against Covid, people across the globe are skipping trains and buses. Instead, they’re part of the great car comeback that’s sending vehicle sales soaring and fueling a demand surge for oil and metals.     Julie Murataj is a reluctant part of the shift. Two […]

Gold & The Coming Oil Shortage

The oil price crash on the back of the COVID-19 lockdowns has accelerated the coming supply crunch. Both national and international oil companies have slashed CAPEX and maintenance spending, which will push up decline rates and US shale drillers finally focus on profitability instead of growth. Current longer-dated oil prices are too low to give […]

Rystad: Oil to Peak in 2026

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EV) around the world will probably cause global oil demand to peak two years earlier than previously expected, Norway’s biggest independent energy consultancy Rystad said on Wednesday. World demand is now seen peaking at 101.6 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2026, down from a forecast made […]

No peaking of oil demand yet

Oil traders at work in Houston. Creative Commons photo by Oil Industry News. Those advancing the notion of a rapidly approaching peak in oil demand will have to wait for another day, as the world regains its thirst for crude from last year’s pandemic-induced lows, according to public and private forecasts. In its April Short-Term […]

Copper is the new oil: Demand for the metal expected to soar this decade

The 2020s are expected to be the strongest phase of volume growth in global copper demand in history, as per Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs has argued that the critical role copper will play in achieving the Paris climate goals cannot be understated. Without serious advancements in carbon capture and storage technology in the coming years, […]

Goldman Sees Oil Demand Peak in Transportation 5 Years Out

Add Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to the list of forecasters calling for oil demand to peak sooner rather than later. The bank brought forward its forecast for peak oil demand in the transportation sector by one year to 2026, if not sooner, largely due to the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles. Overall crude consumption will […]

Will economic growth always rely on population growth?

Marketplace listener Kelly MacLellan wrote in with this question: I’m curious if there are any alternative models that don’t rely on indefinite population growth for economic growth. Recently, the news of falling birth rates has been framed as a “crisis,” but some theories related to population and the climate suggest we can continue growth without […]

Net Energy and ERoEI* in a Mark III Economy

Structure The Mark I economy had only one economic requirement, namely, that each person had to eat one potato per day or die. This was useful to show that one man’s wealth can mean another man’s or many men’s death. The Mark II economy had four or five economic sectors and was useful to demonstrate […]

Have we reached ‘peak oil’?

The U.S. oil and gas industry faces a daunting recovery from the pandemic, said Paul Takahashi at the Houston Chronicle. “about 107,000 oil, gas, and petrochemical workers have been laid off between March and August,” a staggering total even for an industry that is accustomed to soaring heights and crushing lows. But analysts say this […]

The Neutrino Tunnel Under the Alps Will be Finally Built

The Neutrino Tunnel Under the Alps Will be Finally Built, Declares Italian Minister Mariastella Gelmini.   The new neutrino tunnel from Central Italy to Switzerland will be based on gender parity hiring practices. Here, four young miners are ready to start their work at a tunnel that will be about 750 km long (image source) […]

Saudi Aramco CEO expects higher oil demand in 2021

Saudi Aramco ’s Chief Executive expects rising oil demand in 2021, he said on Sunday, citing Chinese demand approaching pre-pandemic levels while vaccines help other economies to open up. “We are pleased that there are signs of a recovery,” Amin Nasser told said at an earnings briefing from the Saudi oil giant. “We expect this […]

How stalling growth hurts the planet

Some environmentalists and economists are pushing for “degrowth” — stabilizing or even shrinking the economy — to avert environmental catastrophe. The big picture: Degrowthism may seem like the only reasonable response to the climate challenges we face, but the experience of enforced economic shrinking during the pandemic indicates the pain would outweigh the benefits — […]

Leap in Gas Prices Puts $3 a Gallon in Sight

The prospect of summer drivers crowding U.S. highways is powering steep gains in the price of gasoline, a sign of economic recovery and a boon for the pandemic-ravaged energy industry. Lifted by oil’s recovery and growing consumer demand, gasoline prices at pumps in the U.S. hit an average of $2.88 a gallon over the past […]

Headed for a Collapsing Debt Bubble

A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so. The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing […]

India Looking for Other Sources of Crude Supply

India will look for alternative sources of crude oil to ensure sustained supply of the fuel, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said. New supply chains won’t likely have an impact on crude prices though, she said on Saturday. The federal and state governments will have to discuss about the inflationary impact of rising crude and its […]

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