IEA Warns Global Oil Demand May Suffer As Crude Nears $80

Global demand for oil is likely to moderate this year, as the price of crude nears $80 a barrel and many key importing nations no longer offer consumers generous fuel subsidies, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. The Paris-based IEA cut its forecast for global demand growth to 1.4 million barrels per day for 2018, from […]

Gas Is Headed for $3. What That Means for the U.S. Economy

Drivers gearing up for trips this summer face escalating prices at the gasoline pump, an early sign that $70-a-barrel oil is starting to reach into consumers’ wallets. Average U.S. retail gasoline prices are climbing toward $3 a gallon, the most expensive in more than three years. The national average was around $2.87 a gallon Monday. […]

The World Wants Air-Conditioning

More than crickets and fireflies, more than baseball and cookouts, perhaps nothing signals the arrival of summer in the United States like the soft familiar whir of air-conditioning. But there is growing concern that as other countries adopt America’s love of air-conditioners, the electricity used to power them will overburden electrical grids and increase planet-warming […]

The Most Underappreciated Story In The Oil Market

The world is currently watching the growing tensions in the Middle East, and oil market analysts are guesstimating just how much Iranian oil supply the renewed U.S. sanctions could stifle. Yet, the biggest story in oil markets this year may well take place far from the much-publicized tensions in the Middle East – namely China’s […]

How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others

Why have long-term interest rates generally fallen since 1981? Why have asset prices risen? Can these trends be expected to continue? The standard evaluation approach by actuaries and economists seems to be to look at past patterns and assume that they will be repeated. The catch is that energy consumption growth plays a hugely important […]

Energy 2040: Oil, Gas Will Still Be In High Demand

The world’s energy business—on both the supply and demand sides—will change drastically by 2040 but oil and gas will continue to be dominant energy sources even as renewables proliferate. The big loser will be coal, although demand for the rock that burns continues to soar among Asia’s rapidly growing economies. Those were among the points […]

Bank of America says oil could surge back to $100

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s commodity strategists see a risk that Brent crude oil returns to $100 per barrel by next year. Brent last touched that level in September 2014, as oil prices descended into their worst crash in a generation. “In short, the micro drivers of the oil market remain positive, as long as […]

Crude Oil Price Forecast: $100 per barrel by 2019

It was a busy week for oil traders, with prices moving in a $4.25 range of $71.89 per barrel down to $67.63 per barrel as the market digested the news that U.S. President Donald Trump decided to unilaterally pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimplement economic sanctions. The exchange of airstrikes between Iranian-backed […]

How Rising Oil Prices Will Affect the US

Four of the past five recessions—1973, 1980, 1990, and 2008—were preceded by a sharp increase in the price of oil. Since last summer, the Brent benchmark oil price has soared by about 50%, to nearly $78 per barrel. More increases could be coming. Additional sanctions on Iran imposed by the Trump administration will limit that […]

The Fisherman and the Farmer – A Tale About Overexploitation

Ilaria Perissi and Nicola Calisi playing the fisherman and his wife in a theatrical piece shown in Florence in 2017. The piece was based on the story told below (text by Ugo Bardi). The origin of this story is told here. Once upon a time, a fisherman who lived on the shore of the lake […]

What is peak oil? And what will happen to the industry if we reach it?

For much of the last century, observers of the oil industry have debated when or if we might reach so-called peak oil — the point when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is achieved. Reasons for this peak have changed over the years, from production driven by supply, to production driven by demand. Most recently, […]

Here’s What Oil at $70 Means for the World Economy

Rising oil prices are a double-edged sword for the world economy. With the price of crude up about 18 percent this year and now trading at the highest since 2014, exporters of the fuel get to enjoy a windfall while consuming nations get hurt. Much ultimately depends on the reason why prices are pushing higher. […]

Ready to pay more at the pump?

Gasoline prices in Fresno already increased beyond $4 per gallon this week at some places in town. And gas prices are projected to rise even more going into the summer in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. A year ago, the national average for was $2.34 for […]

Oil Is Back

In 45 years, the world has gone from energy shortage and fears of “Peak Oil” to an energy glut where it seems the world is drowning in oil and floating on a cloud of natural gas at the same time. Yet that may not last. My models predict a long-term rise in energy demand and […]

Iran oil min says Tehran prefers ‘reasonable’ oil price

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh said on Sunday that Tehran preferred a “reasonable” crude oil price to avoid market instability, the ministry’s news agency Shana reported. Zangeneh said that reasonable oil prices would “encourage producers to keep supply while it would prevent global markets from plunging into instability,” according to Shana. He added that “manufactured […]

Oil hits $70 for the first time since 2014

Oil prices jumped to their highest since late 2014 on Monday on a deepening economic crisis in Venezuela and worries that the Unites States could re-impose sanctions on Iran. The dollar neared its 2018 peak at the same time. U.S. crude oil prices rose 70 cents, or 1 percent, pushing above $70 a barrel for […]

U.S. To Become World’s Top Oil Exporter

As global oil markets shift their attention from U.S. shale oil production back to a resurgent Saudi Arabia and Russia and geopolitical concerns bearing down on oil prices, Citigroup said last Wednesday that the U.S. is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia next year as the world’s largest exporter of crude and oil products. The U.S. […]

Will Higher Oil Prices Destroy Demand?

Oil prices have dipped a bit this week, but still remain at their highest levels in nearly three and a half years. The reasons are by now familiar to most readers who pay attention to the daily whims of the oil market: OPEC cuts, falling inventories, geopolitical unrest and strong demand growth, to name a […]

China’s Growing Oil Demand Has Created A Geopolitical Dilemma

China has become the world’s largest oil importer, and despite establishing the largely successful yuan-denominated oil futures, Beijing will have to grapple with an overlooked geopolitical and economic consequence as it seeks to quench its thirst for oil and gas. As China relies more on both foreign crude oil imports and imported gas in the […]

$3 gas coming to a station near you

There’s a good chance you’ll soon see regular gas selling for $3 a gallon. Concerns that President Donald Trump is about to impose new sanctions on Iran have sent oil prices climbing, and gas prices are coming along for the ride. The national average price is up to $2.81 a gallon according to AAA, an […]

Goldman Sachs: The case for owning commodities has “rarely been stronger”

The strategic case for investing in commodities has “rarely been stronger” than it is now, according to Goldman Sachs. In a note published yesterday, Goldman Sachs researchers said commodities are the best performing asset class of 2018. According to the lender’s figures, commodity markets are outperforming equities by eight per cent, with a year-to-date return […]

Oil Rises as ‘Alarm Bells’ Sound Over Unraveling Iran Nuke Deal

Crude rose after Israeli intelligence about Iranian nuclear ambitions heightened concern an international accord may unravel. Futures in New York rose 0.7 percent on Monday to settle just pennies shy of a three-year high. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had a secret plan to build nuclear weapons. The announcement comes less than two […]

How Natural Gas Works

Natural gas, called “the prince of hydrocarbons” by some, is an increasingly important fuel source in the world energy system. Easy to transport, easy to use, cheap and relatively clean, it is an excellent way to improve our energy system in the short run. While a vast improvement over coal and oil, it is not […]

Peak Carbon

Is peak carbon behind us? Back in November of last year, the US and China came to an agreement to ensure a peak in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. After 2030, yearly emissions would go down. Estimates by scholars in China were that by 2030, emissions would peak at 10.6 billion tonnes, 34% above the 2012 […]

Can India Break Its Oil Addiction?

India is one of the world’s largest oil consumers, accounting for around 4 percent of global consumption. Only the U.S. and China outrank India in this regard, making it a key player in the oil market. While India’s oil consumption has seen remarkable growth in the past few years, the recent rise in oil prices […]

$300 oil is ‘not impossible’ within a few years

Leading oil hedge fund manager, Pierre Andurand, said that $300 per barrel oil is “not impossible” within the next few years. Lack of investment in new production due to low oil prices and fears of electric vehicle peak demand could create higher crude prices, Andurand said in a tweet on Sunday. “So paradoxically these peak […]

China’s Oil Futures Are Gaining Momentum

China’s new oil futures contract is gaining some momentum as a fixture on the global oil market, although hurdles remain before it can become a key benchmark for Asia. China launched its yuan-denominated oil benchmark in March to much fanfare, after years of planning and delays. The logic of starting up an oil futures contract […]

Will Higher Oil Prices Boost The Global Economy

The recent oil price rally is sure to boost petrodollar inflows into the government coffers and sovereign wealth funds of oil producing nations. A part of those petrodollars could flow back into the global markets if oil producing countries boost investments in various asset classes, according to some large investment banks. These potential new petrodollar […]

Goldman: Oil Demand Will Continue To Soar

Oil demand is growing, and production is falling. This is the message we have been receiving for a few weeks now with increasingly frequency, especially after OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia admitted it would like oil prices even higher than US$70. Like a genie from a lamp, the market immediately obliged with traders rushing in to […]

Electric Vehicles Begin To Bite Into Oil Demand

Employees work on the assembly line of the electric bus at a BYD’s production base on January 23, 2018 in Xi’an, China. China’s largest electric carmaker BYD sold 113,669 new energy vehicles in 2017, up 13.4 percent year-on-year. (Photo by VCG/Getty Images) Projections have suggested that the advent of electric vehicles will have a dramatic […]

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