Discontinuity Ahead – Oil Limits will Adversely Affect the Economy

What will the world economy be like ten years from now? Or fifty years from now? Is it something that we can forecast by looking at the past, assuming that past tends will continue? Figure 1 Most economists today seem to think we can rely heavily on past patterns. If we can really assume that […]

Food Security Raises the Obvious: Can We Feed 9.6 Billion by 2050?

World Population Day 2013 came and went with little fanfare this year. There were no organized efforts to draw attention to the annual United Nations observance, which underscores population issues. The sole article I saw on the subject matter-of-factly noted that “global population is growing faster than expected” as U.N. demographers revised their projections upwards […]

The American Myth of Cheap Oil and Gas

In recent years, U.S. business and political leaders have giddily talked of a “Saudi America” gurgling with domestic oil and gas. It’s true that the U.S. now has access to abundant supplies of cheap domestic gas capable of transforming the U.S. economy. Too bad these same leaders are about to give away a vast chunk […]

Factory Food From Above: Satellite Images of Industrial Farms

View as gallery Tascosa Feedyard, Texas (detail) Tascosa Feedyard, Texas (2013) Coronado Feeders, Dalhart, Texas (2013) Coronado Feeders, Dalhart, Texas (detail) Randall County Feedyard, Amarillo, Texas (2013) Randall County Feedyard, Amarillo, Texas (detail) View as gallery Seen from a satellite, an industrial feedlot has a sort of abstract beauty. The washes of colors, the juxtaposition […]

Approaching a Steady State Economy, Part 2 — Clean Clothes

To get a sense of how the broader economy works, it’s useful to analyze one particular sector. In trying to answer the question of how a non-growing economy could work, Part 1 of this article considered methods (categorized as “economizing” and “innovating”) for achieving a sustainable transportation sector. But the transportation sector is complex enough that […]

Transition and Solidarity

It all began with Emilio. He’s a Transition film maker from Andalucia, living in Totnes, and ever since we met, it seems, the conversation has inevitably turned to building bridges between these two cultures – Transition cultures and, ojala, cultures in transition. After many, many such conversations – over coffees, over beers and breakfasts, long […]

Post Peak Reflections

“At US$25 per barrel — the historic average — 90 million barrels would be US$2.25 billion every day on oil expenditure. At US$105 per barrel, that amounts to US$9.45 billion per day. This is a difference of US$7.2 billion every day, an extra cost to the global economy which is primarily a result of crude […]

As the Fantasy Dies: “Panic Will Ensue”

The US government may have funded studies and propaganda material which says that people will not panic, loot or go hungry in the midst of a crisis, but the fact of the matter is that history has shown otherwise. Image: Northern Rock bank run. It’s often the case that, despite countless warnings from those considered to […]

Could Big-SUV Boom Hint At Fruits Of U.S. ‘Energy Security’?

Full-size SUVs rather suddenly are notching some of the biggest sales increases in the sizzling U.S. market these days, at least on a percentage basis. And with Americans’ growing sense of “energy security” because of burgeoning domestic gasoline supplies, and prices that are moderating somewhat, this trend might be just a harbinger of a further […]

Freedom from oil dependence

When Daniel Yergin met with Big Three executives in 2005, gasoline prices were still under $2 a gallon, and company leaders mainly were concerned about how to use their biggest vehicles to maximize profits during the industry’s historic boom. “They were just locked into trucks; that was the future,” recalled Yergin, hailed as the world’s […]

Can We Be Proud Of The Global Car Industry?

Auto manufactureing is an over one trillion dollar industry that does the very important jobs of (1) keeping a good percentage of the world’s population busy from 9 to 5 and (2) giving us machines to zip around in. But can we, as humans, really be proud of what it produces? I normally think abut […]

Perspective on future oil use

(The image shows Eirik Wærness and Staffan Riben.) Network Oil & Gas (NOG) was formed in Sweden 12 years ago. It is a forum for training, exchange of experience and debate on issues that affect the use and significance of fossil fuels. During a year, NOG aims to organise approximately six symposia. Last Monday’s symposium […]

World population is essential part of food production discussion

Our good friends at Progressive Farmer magazine fill 15 pages of their September issue with a well-researched, well-written “special report” on “Feeding the World.” ( http://www.dtnpf-digital.com/#&pageSet=26) The four-color, four-story package hits all the humane highlights U.S. farmers and ranchers expect in these stories of manifest destiny when “the world will look to the U.S. to […]

Oil Prices Still Too High for Economic Recovery

Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s chief economist, comments on price of oil. He spoke in an interview today in the Chinese city of Dalian, where he’s attending the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions. “Oil prices are still very high for the fragile economic recovery. It’s high for Europe and also […]

Of Milk Cows and Saudi Arabia

Under the desert in eastern Saudi Arabia lies Ghawar, the largest oil field in the world. It has been famously productive, with a per-well flow rate of thousands of barrels per day, owing to a combination of efficient water injection, good rock permeability, and other factors. At its best, it set the standard for easy […]

The Energy Return on Energy Invested of US Food Production

Lactic acid. It has a peculiar taste all its own, one that I’ve come to appreciate as, over the past few years, I’ve developed a taste for fermented foods and fermented vegetables in particular. The sharp tang of lactic acid is what gives many fermented foods their peculiar taste, and as I type this I […]

Gas shortage ignites protest in Murmansk Russia

Thousands of households lost their cooking heat and the eternal gas fire in front of the famous Alyesha war memorial silently died out as Murmansk Oblast experienced one of its most serious disruptions of gas supplies ever. Regional Governor Marina Kovtun fully blames Murmanoblgaz, the main regional gas supplier, for the situation. According to Kovtun, […]

IEA Sankey Diagrams

The International Energy Agency has taken its share of abuse from The Oil Drum over the years for its rather optimistic forecasts. But it deserves a hearty shout-out for an invaluable resource it has on its web site: Interactive Sankey Diagrams for the World.   Sankey Diagram showing world energy flows (Click for larger view) […]

India: Ready for peak oil?

As cities expand and markets keep fuel prices high, Indians are demanding better public transport. The States must deliver, but they are only inching ahead. In the chorus of angry voices against the horrific gang rape of a paramedic student on a moving bus in the national capital on December 16 last, one issue that […]

Households Gained $1,200 Thanks to Surging U.S. Oil Production

About $1,200 a year. That’s what the average American household gained in disposable income in 2012 as a result of surging U.S. oil and natural gas production in unconventional energy plays, according to research firm IHS. IHS reaches its conclusion by calculating lower bills for natural gas and electricity — thanks to swelling supplies of […]

The interconnected Syria-oil ties, and the price of a barrel

Smoke is rising from violent hot spots across the Middle East and North Africa – most notably in Syria, Egypt and and Libya. But while there’s no smoke without fire, have these political conflagrations already set global oil markets ablaze? Bank of America Merrill Lynch argues that they have. In a report last week entitled, […]

On This Day In History, Crude Oil Has Never Been More Expensive

We are sure this is just a ‘transitory’ storm-in-a-teacup, but for those who ‘use’ energy, the price of the most important raw material in the world has never been higher on this day of the year than it is today… must be all this growth? But of course, there’s still plenty of ‘absolute’ uspide… Seemorerocks

Crash Course by Chris Martenson

Gold was always considered as solid and save instrument. Many Countries currency was based on Gold reserves. People loved to make investment in Gold. But now this Gold is in crisis. These Gold crisis are linked with economic, financial, debt and currency crisis. Anyhow, too much dependence on one instrument always brings down fall. This […]

Will Fewer Young Drivers Today Mean Lower Fuel Demand Tomorrow?

Driver’s licenses for those under 40 years of age are down in several large, developed countries, including the US. This is only partially explained by a weak economy. If this shift in attitudes towards driving persists, future demand for both cars and fuel could be permanently reduced. Current forecasts from the Energy Information Administration indicate that US gasoline […]

Robert Rapier: Prepare for the Chinese Energy Juggernaut

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013). While the EIA doesn’t have a sterling track record for predictions, many organizations make decisions at least partially based on EIA projections. Therefore the organization’s forecasts are worth reviewing. Of particular interest to me were the agencies forecasts about China’s energy demand. […]

Don’t Place Your Bets On Peak Oil Demand Just Yet

For some reason, the oil market is always spoken of in hyperbolic terms. A pending dispute between two nations can double oil prices within a matter of months. Or peak oil worries set in and prices will skyrocket as production declines. Today, the new theory is that we are at a point of peak demand, […]

Africa Unplugged: Energy Access a Costly Barrier to Growth

Before the advent of the modern communication, humankind was limited to either word of mouth or protracted written communication sent over land or sea. It’s almost impossible to imagine in a digital age that it could ever have taken so long to send information to each other. Facebook, Twitter, Skype, email, voice, video, IM, television […]

The End of the Age of Extraction

Today’s global economy is causing shortages of natural resources (both renewable and nonrenewable) as we come to the end of what might be called the Age of Extraction. A true cost, steady state economy, on the other hand, would prevent resource problems by maintaining population and resource consumption well within the carrying capacity of the […]

Venezuela hit by blackout, government blames ‘sabotage’

A blackout hit much of Venezuela including the capital Caracas on Tuesday, but the oil industry was not affected and the government said it expected power to be restored within hours. The cut struck a dozen of the South American country’s 24 states and caused traffic chaos in parts of Caracas and other cities. The […]

Permaculture And The Myth Of Scarcity

At a conference a couple weeks ago an activist who does work in Africa recounted an encounter she had with the minister of agriculture of a certain African country. The minister spoke with excitement about the high-tech agricultural technologies he was bringing into the country in partnership with large agribusiness companies, so the activist brought […]

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