The US Dollar Will Collapse Next Week – Peter Schiff

55 Comments on "The US Dollar Will Collapse Next Week – Peter Schiff"

Outcast_Searcher on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 4:06 pm 



If Musk can say lots of random sh*t that should get him in legal trouble, why shouldn’t Peter Schiff be able to?

Of course, neither one should be taken seriously, given their track records re being right. Especially Schiff.

Another day, another short term collapse Cassandra’s dire prediction, to be proven wrong.

Cliffhanger on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 4:11 pm 



Outcast

Schiff correctly predicted the mortgage meltdown before it happened..But he did predict the dollar would collapse and it didnt.. And Schiff isn’t a CEO of a fortune 500 company..So that is a false equivalency..Maybe if you went to college you woulnd’ understand logic..And not have to resort to petty slander..

Outcast_Searcher on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 4:14 pm 



Peter Schiff sounds unstable, unlike the dollar. Looking at the DXY, it was basically flat today, like it has been overall since early 2015. Over 5 years, solidly up. Over 30 years, about flat.

It’s like the Cassandras whining about the dollar being worth less than toilet paper, as though they can’t read and comprehend a simple chart.

Gold is down over 10% since spring. It’s down the past 30 days. Again, what IS Schiff babbling about?

Cliffhanger on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 4:27 pm 



Outcast

Just wait till the global oil shortage hits..And you will see hyperinflation sky rocket..Then the dollar will collapse..

https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

Davy on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 4:44 pm 



It is likely the dollar and the other top currencies are too big to fail for the secretive central banking members. It is rather obvious a destabilizing move by any one affects all. I don’t see the dollar collapsing anytime soon. It likely will destabilize and experience some uncontrollable swings depending on the risk de jure but range bound. Too many have too great an interest in stability. What will change this is when financial conditions take on a life of their own. I don’t see that yet but it is appears to be ahead somewhere.

onlooker on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 4:52 pm 



Mr. Schiff should keep his thoughts to himself. These type of off the cuff, premature predictions are what sadly turns off many. And that does not let many arrive at the the general pessimistic conclusions that derives from analysis which is fact based and on very solid footing of the building stresses on all facets of society

makati1 on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 5:56 pm 



The dollar is in an ongoing collapse. Has been for a long time. Some say since 1971 when Nixon took the Us off the Gold Standard. Certainly since 2008.

Crash next week? Maybe, but certainly in a few years at most. If the Saudis swing to yuan under Chinese buying pressure, then maybe next week or very soon. The Us is running out of rabbits to pull out of that magic hat and Trump has set the hat on fire. Interesting times!

Cliffhanger on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 5:59 pm 



Mak

The only thing that is going to collapse is your paints after your diaper fills up with shit..

LMFAO!

asg70 on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 5:01 am 



^^^

Onlooker displaying a rare bout of common sense above.

Antius on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 5:16 am 



“Just wait till the global oil shortage hits..And you will see hyperinflation sky rocket..Then the dollar will collapse.”

The global oil shortage started in or around 2005. That is when global conventional crude and condensates production peaked.

You can see the results of peak oil in this graph.

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/1-sam.png

Debt began to grow explosively in 2001, right around the time that China joined the WTO and US manufacturing jobs started heading east. Since these working and middle class jobs are where the US government gets most of its tax income from, there was a sudden uptick in Uncle Sam’s debt growth at that point. Prior to that, debt had been levelling off.

Around 2006-2007, the gradient of the debt curve increased again as high oil prices and declining net energy finally pricked the over indebted US (and global) economy. Since then, the entire western world has suffered declining real prosperity, as debt has generally grown faster than GDP in every country except Germany. This is a direct result of declining net energy available to those economies. With debt continuing to grow along with dollar tightening and rising interest rates, the day of reckoning is approaching.

makati1 on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 6:14 am 



Antius, your outline of cause and effect is spot on! The West is on the decline.

Cloggie on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 6:25 am 



“Mak
The only thing that is going to collapse is your paints after your diaper fills up with shit..
LMFAO!”

Millimind is now operating under the nick Cliffhanger.

Antius on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 6:33 am 



The west is in decline. But the news from Asia is less than good. Britain and China have the dubious distinction of being the two most heavily indebted major economies.

The Chinese predicament is well summed up here:
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/07/02/130-grand-bargains-dangerous-choices/

My advice, for what little it is worth, is to western countries to concentrate on developing domestic manufacturing based economies, powered by nuclear reactors. It is time to stop worrying about radiation and learn to love the atom.

Sys1 on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 6:57 am 



Why next week? What the hell is happening next week?
Of course, the dollar will finally collapse, but giving a date is pointless.

MASTERMIND on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 7:00 am 



Antius

Yup..And when the debt bubbles pop..It will cause cascading defaults worldwide ie global economic collapse.

marmico on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 7:39 am 



Since then, the entire western world has suffered declining real prosperity, as debt has generally grown faster than GDP in every country except Germany

Bull shit. US nonfinancial sector debt to GDP ratio has been as flat as a pancake since 2009. Debt servicing costs to GDP are lower. Energy costs to GDP are lower.

Timmie Morgan’s SEEDS=GIGO. It’s about as actionable as his 2012 Perfect Storm. Of five predictions, his batting average is zero.

Oh, and Schiff is a moron.

Cloggie on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 7:46 am 



“Oh, and Schiff is a moron.”

Schiff is a gold-trader.
Tribal-vocational thingy.

MASTERMIND on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 7:53 am 



marmico

US Economy (GDP) Minus Federal Debt
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109827-depression-borrowing-money-income

Top Economist: America: The Future Looks Broke

Professor Laurence Kotlikoff from the University of Boston is, according to The Economist, one of the 25 most influential economists in the world. He says America’s official debt paints an untrue fiscal picture.

“The problem is the official debt is only the debts that politicians decide to put on to the books. Politicians are able and free to put whatever they want on to the books and keep other things off the books.”

What doesn’t get recorded is the value of all future government liabilities and the value of all future receipts, what he calls fiscal gap accounting. Future liabilities would be social security benefits, pensions, health care benefits and defence. These liabilities minus future receipts gives the true picture, Kotlikoff says.

“For the US, the fiscal gap is not $US20 trillion, which is the size of the official debt, but it’s $US200 trillion, ten times larger. So the country’s bankrupt.”

https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018632011/america-the-future-looks-broke

The world is drowning in debt, warns Goldman Sachs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11625406/The-world-is-drowning-in-debt-warns-Goldman-Sachs.html

Government Intervention is triggered by a Keynesian belief that aggregate demand can be increased by lower interest rates and by increasing government deficits thereby somehow spurring economic growth. Debt grows faster than income growth and eventually has to be restructured, i.e., everyone loses in the end. Since 2007, global debt has grown by US$57 trillion and it’s had disastrous results. Greece, Detroit, Puerto Richo, Venezuela are just the beginning of this trend. Soon, it will be followed by larger countries like China and United States.
https://www.perchingtree.com/return-of-great-depression/

‘WORSE THAN 2007’: Top central banker warns of looming wave of worldwide bankruptcies
http://www.businessinsider.com/worse-than-2007-top-banker-warns-of-looming-wave-of-worldwide-bankruptcies-2016-1

Davy on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 8:06 am 



“Oh, and Schiff is a moron.”

Schiff was a one hit wonder and now he is trying to perpetuate his reputation with periodic pronouncements of financial doom. This is problematic for those who want to express the building risks. It plays into the hands of the blind cornucopians who then lump all pessimist into the lunatic doom set.

Antius on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 8:40 am 



Some sort of dollar devaluation will ultimately be necessary, as US debt is denominated in dollars. The US government and consumer cannot remain solvent in the face of increasing debt, unless the purchasing power of the dollar declines and income in nominal dollars increases. If debt keeps increasing to the point where it becomes unserviceable, this will be the only option left. The process may not be entirely voluntary.

marmico on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 8:58 am 



Some sort of dollar devaluation will ultimately be necessary, as US debt is denominated in dollars.

Were you one of the morons that loaded up on Turkish lira and Argentina peso in anticipation of dollar devaluation? ROTFLMFAO

Antius on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 9:33 am 



“Were you one of the morons that loaded up on Turkish lira and Argentina peso in anticipation of dollar devaluation? ROTFLMFAO”

No. I do not engage in currency trading. My personal wealth is split a number of ways. I have shares in a gold mining company, for which there will always be demand if fiat currencies go tits up; shares in a defence company with a long list of orders; I own a holiday property, for which demand seems to be increasing; and I own a house, on which I recently paid off a mortgage. I doubt that I will prosper from the financial disaster approaching, but I am better positioned than most people to survive it. It helps as well that I am still in my thirties.

I am quite confident in predicting strong dollar devaluation at some point in the not too distant future. By devaluation, I am referring to dollar purchasing power, not necessarily exchange rate. Firstly, I would point out that dollar devaluation has been a fairly constant process over the past 100 years. So dollar devaluation isn’t a new thing. Secondly, the economic fundamentals of the US, such as debt/GDP ratio, the cost of interest payments, employment earnings growth, working age population, etc. all appear to be pointing towards a pincer movement, with government tax earnings declining and interest payments and other liabilities increasing.

Of course I could be wrong. Maybe I have completely misunderstood the situation. So if you have an alternative view of the future Marmico, feel free to present it.

marmico on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 10:31 am 



Firstly, I would point out that dollar devaluation has been a fairly constant process over the past 100 years

I would point out that income and asset appreciation have been a fairly constant process over the past 100 years.

Dollar Income and Asset Appreciation > Dollar Depreciation. It’s called a “real” return.

JuanP on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 11:42 am 



Marmico “Were you one of the morons that loaded up on Turkish lira and Argentina peso in anticipation of dollar devaluation? ROTFLMFAO”

I doubt anybody here did that! You would have to be a real moron to invest in Turkey’s and Argentina’s currencies. Those economies are obvious basket cases. You are talking nonsense as usual, Marmi.

MASTERMIND on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 1:36 pm 



Marmico

I noticed you skipped my comment which was directed at you?

Wonder why?

MASTERMIND on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 2:02 pm 



Moon landing movie omits American Flag

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/2018/08/29/first-man-neil-armstrong-film-fails-fly-flag-us-patriotism/

marmico on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 2:33 pm 



I noticed you skipped my comment which was directed at you?

Go milk Turdburger’s tits, Baby Doomer.

Dollar devaluation in doomtard talk means inflation. So what.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=l1N9

Cloggie on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 3:03 pm 



Moon landing movie omits American Flag
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/2018/08/29/first-man-neil-armstrong-film-fails-fly-flag-us-patriotism/

Finally some historic justice?

https://goo.gl/images/uuCR3z

https://goo.gl/images/Q5xS2b

MASTERMIND on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 3:36 pm 



marmico

I wasn’t talking about dollar doom..And I see you stalk me on other blogs..

Just wait till the oil starts to run out..

https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

makati1 on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 6:14 pm 



Antius, the West is dead. “My advice, for what little it is worth, is to western countries to concentrate on developing domestic manufacturing based economies, powered by nuclear reactors. It is time to stop worrying about radiation and learn to love the atom.?

Not going to happen. No industry is coming back to the US. No nukes will be built in the future. The US is toast.

dave thompson on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 7:23 pm 



Over the past 100 years or so the dollar has gone from being worth a dollar to now being worth two or three cent with inflation adjustment.

Davy on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 7:52 pm 



“Which Emerging Markets Will Run Out Of Money First: Here Is The Answer”
https://tinyurl.com/yc487srl

“key reason for the solid growth across emerging markets in recent years, has been the constant inflow of foreign capital, resulting in a significant external funding requirement for continued growth”

“Emerging Market external funding needs, and defined it as an “external coverage ratio.” It is calculated be dividing a country’s reserves by its 12 month external funding needs, which in turn are the sum of the i) current account, ii) short-term external debt and iii) the next 12 months amortizations from long-term external debt. More importantly, what this ratio shows is how long a given emerging market has before it runs out of cash. And, as the chart below shows, if we were investors in Turkey, Ukraine, Argentina, or any of the other nations on the left side of the chart – and certainly those with less than a year of reserves to fund its external funding needs – we would be worried.”
https://tinyurl.com/y7rryta6

makati1 on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 10:13 pm 



Dave, yep! An 8oz Coke in a glass bottle cost seven cents when I was a kid. My 1965 Chevy Super Sport Convertible w/396 cu.in. engine cost $2,500. right out of the showroom. I made $5/hr. as a masons helper then.

Today, cokes are at least 10 times that. Ditto for even a mid-sized Chevy. And you would have to look hard to find anyone to work for $5/hr with no benefits today. Not even your neighbor’s kid to mow your lawn on a riding mower.

Duncan Idaho on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 10:32 pm 



My 1965 Chevy Super Sport Convertible w/396 cu.in. engine cost $2,500.

My 1956 Chevy Wagon cost $300.
And I drove it for years.

makati1 on Thu, 30th Aug 2018 11:19 pm 



lol. I was 12 in 1956. I was 21 when I bought the 65′. It had poor engineering. Inadequate brakes and suspension. It bottomed out on a road dip and smashed the oil pan the first week I owned it. About 6,000 lbs and shoe brakes. I sold it after six months and bought a used Ford. lol

makati1 on Fri, 31st Aug 2018 3:52 am 



Isolating America:

“Yuan payment allowed in Vietnam-China border areas”
” The World Is Ganging up Against the Dollar”
“Iran Sanctions, Emerging Markets And The End Of Dollar Dominance”
“Japan, China to discuss currency swap pact”
“Trump Threatens to Pull U.S. Out of WTO If It Doesn’t ‘Shape Up'”
“Back in the (Great) Game: The Revenge of Eurasian Land Powers”
“Modernized Chinese Navy Could Surpass US, Prompting Fears It’s “Game Over” For US In Pacific”
“Senior Official: India “Definitely” Not Going To Zero Iranian Oil Imports”
“Chinese soy buyers leave U.S. exporters show empty handed”

http://ricefarmer.blogspot.com/ Slip slidin’…

Davy on Fri, 31st Aug 2018 7:07 am 



“Rupiah Plunges To 1998 Asian Financial Crisis Low Amid Emerging Market Liquidation”
https://tinyurl.com/y9z3zqu3

“As Bloomberg notes, as investors liquidated Turkish and Argentinian assets, countries with large current-account deficits such as Indonesia and India have also seen their currencies and bonds come under selling pressure. The rout in the Argentinian peso and Turkish lira end the recent stability bought by Bank Indonesia’s four rate hikes since mid-May, which has led to a return of foreign funds into its debt market.”

“For Indonesia, it’s the current-account deficit that we need to manage,” said Suahasil Nazara, head of fiscal policy office at the Finance Ministry. “The ultimate fix is through our structural reforms, allowing better and more conducive business environment especially for manufacturing and upstream industries.” Of course, it is those structural reforms that are so unpopular, which is why every EM chooses to use monetary policy first – or in the case of Turkey, nothing at all.”

joe on Fri, 31st Aug 2018 11:30 am 



“ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkey needs Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries and will procure them as soon as possible, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-russia-missiles/turkeys-erdogan-says-turkey-needs-s-400-missile-defence-systems-idUSKCN1LG0X8”

I guess they shouldn’t have tried to off him and he wouldn’t have flipped to Russia/China. Might have been Obamas worst geopolitical decision.
Getting rid of Erdogan would have plunged Turkey into chaos and paved to way for Kurdish statehood. Now because of a very bad idea (the coup itself not kurdish statehood) that will never happen. Very sad, for such a brave and honorable race of people.

Robert Inget on Fri, 31st Aug 2018 2:13 pm 



Trump dises Canada.
details;

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-wont-compromise-with-canada-on-nafta-leaked-comments-5be173222831/

In point of fact, Canada is America’s main source of oil imports.

Canada, unless you want to become a US colony….
Build that Trans Mountain pipeline: Rat Now!

makati1 on Fri, 31st Aug 2018 7:00 pm 



“…Eurasia integration will be a death blow to Bretton Woods and “democratic” neoliberalism…Get ready for a major geopolitical chessboard rumble: from now on, every butterfly fluttering its wings and setting off a tornado directly connects to the battle between Eurasia integration and Western sanctions as foreign policy.”

https://consortiumnews.com/2018/08/29/back-in-the-great-game-the-revenge-of-eurasian-land-powers/

“Relentless Russophobia is paired with supreme fear of a Russia-Germany rapprochement … The supreme nightmare for the U.S. is in fact a truly Eurasian Beijing-Berlin-Moscow partnership. …

Were the European peninsula of Asia to fully integrate before mid-century – via high-speed rail, fiber optics, pipelines – into the heart of massive, sprawling Eurasia, it’s game over. No wonder Exceptionalistan elites are starting to get the feeling of a silk rope drawn ever so softly, squeezing their gentle throats.”

We can only hope. Slip slidin’…

Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 1st Sep 2018 12:29 pm 



Cliff, thanks for your idiocy. We needed that. Schiff also predicted $5000 gold and a 5000 Dow Jones during the mortgage meltdown.

If an idiot makes thousands of predictions and gets a few right, does that count as a good score? In your opinion, apparently so.

Maybe you should go back to kindergarten and work on your logic! But thanks for playing.

Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 1st Sep 2018 12:32 pm 



Cliff, the Cassandras have been predicting global oil doom since the 70’s.

How many decades should we hold our breaths and hide waiting for your predction?

The US and global economy is getting less and less dependent on energy as a percentage of GDP. Green energy continues to advance rapidly as a percentage.

By the time your “collapse” comes, oil likely won’t be needed much for transportation.

We can also use a lot of NG for transportation as a transitional fuel while waiting for the BEV buildout, if needed.

An inconvenience — NOT a collapse. But again, thanks for playing.

makati1 on Sat, 1st Sep 2018 7:02 pm 



Outcast, BULLSHIT! The US is ever more dependent on cheap energy. If you brought all of the manufacturing done in the rest of the world, that the Us depends on, it would be the biggest energy hog in the world with no other country even close. The US NET imports about $1,000,000,000,000.00 worth of “energy” every year! That is energy, just in another form.

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-imports-and-exports-components-and-statistics-3306270

As for the world, some small countries may be ok, but not any Western ones or their wannabees.

You are just another techie who ignores facts if they don’t support your dreams. NG depends on oil to exist in quantity. Prove me wrong.

Will NG patch the roads?
Fuel: a billion plus cars?
Millions of trucks?
Heavy mining machinery?
Heat a billion homes?

Answer: No. Who is going to pay for the switch over from oil? A world already hundreds of trillions in debt? I don’t think so. Dream on…

Boat on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 12:02 pm 



Mak

The US pays for the energy required to make products either home or abroad, silly.
All the strawman talk for years about needing oil. The US has plenty of oil.

MASTERMIND on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 12:10 pm 



The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground

NYT: Fueled by debt and years of easy credit, America’s energy boom is on shaky footing

Amir Azar, a fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, calculated that the industry’s net debt in 2015 was $200 billion, a 300 percent increase from 2005. But interest expense increased at half the rate debt did because interest rates kept falling. Dr. Azar recently called the post-2008 era of super-low interest rates the “real catalyst of the shale revolution.”

. . . The best-run companies, which often focus on the Permian, are now making some money. “Their rates of return are still below levels that will sustain the industry in the long run,” says Brian Horey, who runs Aurelian Management, but “they are trending in the right direction.”

And yet only five of the top 20 fracking companies managed to generate more cash than they spent in the first quarter of 2018. If companies were forced to live within the cash flow they produce, American oil would not be a factor in the rest of the world, an investor told me.

It wasn’t just the rediscovery of the Permian that helped restart the oil boom after plunging prices almost killed it. The most important factor is the one that started the boom in the first place. “It came back because Wall Street was there,” Mr. Chanos told me. In 2017, American frackers raised $60 billion in debt, up almost 30 percent since 2016, according to Dealogic. . . .

For a long time, the public markets have been valuing fracking companies not based on a multiple of profits, the standard way of valuing a company, but rather according to a multiple of the acreage a company owns. As long as companies are able to sell stock to the public or sell themselves to companies that are already public, everyone in the chain, from the private equity funders to the executives, can continue making money.

It’s all a bit reminiscent of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, when internet companies were valued on the number of eyeballs they attracted, not on the profits they were likely to make. As long as investors were willing to believe that profits were coming, it all worked — until it didn’t.

These days, the rhetoric of “energy independence,” meaning an America that no longer depends on anyone else for its oil, not even Saudi Arabia or OPEC, is in perfect harmony with “Make America Great Again.” But rhetoric doesn’t produce profits, and most things that are economically unsustainable, from money-losing dot-coms to subprime mortgages, eventually come to a bitter end.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/opinion/the-next-financial-crisis-lurks-underground.html

Boat on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 12:23 pm 



I love timelines as a way to show change. A week is great. Go dollar.

The shortonoil ETP timeline is down to less than 4 months. This collaspe was to have taken 3 years. One major claim from Short was the idea oil demand would dissipate to the point drilling rigs and the oil industry would be gathering cobweds.
We all miss Short. It must be embarrassing to be so wrong for so long. Even his supporters who threw up post after post have gone quiet.
The good part is we have a new crop of doomers although the timelines seem more muddied. 2020 but maybe longer keeps the debate going.

Cloggie on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 12:56 pm 



Ah, glad that millimind is back! Tell me milimind, is it true what they say, that the German Army has written a report in 2010 that peak-oil was to be taken seriously?

Inquiring minds would like to know?

Do you have a link to that report?

Boat on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 1:22 pm 



Clog

After the miscalculation of WWII their internal reports should stay that way. Their success rate in predictions matches the doomers. 2010 oil predictions showing no improvment over……We can take the world!!

Cloggie on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 1:38 pm 



“After the miscalculation of WWII their internal reports should stay that way. Their success rate in predictions matches the doomers. 2010 oil predictions showing no improvment over……We can take the world!!”

WW1 was the intentional rape of Germany by Britain
WW2 was the intentional rape of Germany by “world Jews” (expression Chamberlain)

You want to “take” the world indeed (thanks for your not-too-bright honesty), but you are no longer in the position to do so, although you think you can, despite experiences in Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan.

This time the world is going to “take” you.

Your greatest vulnerability: US white nationalism as well as your inability to take large numbers of casualties, unlike China, Russia and Islam.

MASTERMIND on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 2:00 pm 



Clogg

The German Army (leaked) study..Corrected predicted the rise of Trump and Brexit ie rise of extremism and nationalism..And it says in the medium term the global economy will collapse..

https://www.scribd.com/document/387459134/german

And now the IEA, Saudi Arabia, HSBC, Citi Group, and the Former head of the EIA are all warning about oil shortages to hit around 2020..Just as the German Study predicted..

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf

You’ve been warned!