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Page added on March 5, 2020

The Things That Matter Don’t Change

Summary

There is gravity to the coronavirus and the possibility to spread and infect populations around the globe.

The coronavirus points to the clear danger of concentrating manufacturing supply chains in one country.

As the U.S. downsizes its navy and withdraws from being the world’s policeman, the transport of oil to where it’s needed will become more perilous.

By James Puplava

Admit it. It’s discomforting. It makes you ill at ease. It makes you question the world around you. In a matter of a few days, the markets have plunged into chaos and disorder. What changed? Gone is ebullience, replaced by fear and despair. Such is today’s world of high frequency trading, financial concentration, and a massive index bubble. What used to take weeks, if not months, can now take place in just a few days. As shown in the graph below, in just one week the Dow fell over 4,000 points breaking through its 50-day and 200-day averages. Even if you are not an investor, you are aware of what is happening in the markets.

Source: Stockcharts.com, Financial Sense Wealth Management. Note: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly into an index.

The world is bracing for a possible pandemic. There is gravity to the coronavirus and the possibility to spread and infect populations around the globe. But if there is any country to best minimize its lethality, it is the U.S.

In the short term, it’s impacting travel and global supply chains. Companies like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMLF), and Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) are forced to close factories or cut production outside of China. The result is global manufacturing inventory levels have plunged to their lowest levels since 2012. While at the same time, rising orders could deplete these low levels of inventory even faster.

Even as the virus is spreading to other nations, the good news is that China is reporting a slowdown in the number of outbreaks and deaths. In the words of the late John Bogle, “this too, shall pass.” When it does, which could be as soon as the end of the second, third, or fourth quarter of this year, economic activity will sharply pick up in order to replenish depleted inventories.

But what if things don’t improve or this turns into an actual pandemic? What then? A black swan event such as this could possibly derail the current recovery or, worse, lead to a possible recession. We can’t rule out the worst.

Changes in the Global Supply Chain

On a positive note, I believe with containment, restrictions on travel, a possible vaccine and the best possible medical care and facilities in the world, this virus will eventually be contained. What will change and has now become a widely discussed theme on our podcast and elsewhere, is the global supply chain. The coronavirus points to the clear danger of concentrating on manufacturing supply chains in one country. The rerouting of global supply chains was already moving from China to other countries as companies diversify their supply chains making them less vulnerable to disruptions from either tariffs or pandemics as we see now.

The global order and supply chain management is in the process of reversing as globalization trends reverse themselves and political alignments reorder themselves. These are topics we covered earlier this year in an FS Insider interview with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan on his new book Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World. His book deals with many of the issues of the transition to clean energy which will not go smoothly or work in many countries during this new realignment of the economic order.

Coca Cola, Exxon Mobil, and IBM

I want to share with you a few slides from last year’s client meetings. They are a graph of three companies during the great financial crisis when the S&P 500 lost close to 60% of its value. These three companies experienced half the loss and recovered quickly once the bear market ended. More importantly, is what happened to their dividends during the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression. Had you done nothing, you would have received your dividends and those dividends went up every year during the financial crisis. During the financial crisis, IBM (NYSE:IBM) increased its dividend 95% and 199% since the crisis ended. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) increased its dividend over 32% and Exxon (NYSE:XOM) raised its dividend 30%.

The stock prices of all three companies fell a little over 30% during one of the biggest and longest-lasting bear markets in history. But the dividends continue uninterrupted. I cannot guarantee future performance of any company. Nothing in life or the markets is guaranteed. But I can say with a high degree of confidence that a dividend aristocrat (company that has raised its dividend every year for 25 years or more) is likely to continue doing so in the future.

In a world of negative interest rates and 1- to 5-year treasury yields now down below 1% as of this writing, it is nice to be able to provide income and yields that are far above the market and that continues to rise each year. No one enjoys seeing a stock they own fall in price but the reason we own these companies is for their dividends and the possibility of dividend increases. That will not change despite fluctuations in stock prices. Historically, a company with rising profits, cash flows and rising dividends eventually rise in value along with rising stock prices.

A Note on Energy

The feeling on Wall Street is fossil fuels are dead, passé and investment shibboleth. This is a false narrative pedaled by Wall Street and Washington with the belief we have reached “peak demand” for oil and fossil fuels. Things have reached such extremes that U.S. energy stocks are at the lowest price relative to the S&P 500 since the attack on Pearl Harbor.

The current state of energy companies has more to do with their success and the shale revolution that took U.S. oil production from just over 5 million barrels per day (MBD) to the current rate of 12.6 MBD, turning the U.S. once again to the world’s largest energy producer in less than a decade, far above either Saudi Arabia or Russia. The other factor is the mistaken belief in what Wall Street and Washington are promulgating as “peak demand.”

In my opinion, this false narrative is going to be shattered by the middle of the decade when we’ll be more likely to experience another oil shock instead of an oil collapse. I would like to point to two studies, one geological by the Geological Survey of Finland and one geopolitical by Zeihan. They both come to the same conclusions but from two different perspectives: Oil is the lifeblood of the global industrial economy.

If the price rises as it did in 2009, economic growth cannot happen. According to the Finland study, the global system was still 84.7% dependent on fossil fuels. Oil accounts for 90% of the global supply chain and all manufactured products depend on the availability of oil-derived products or services. It is a prerequisite for the transportation of large quantities of goods over long distances. Oil, information technology, container ships, trucks, train, and aircraft form the backbone of globalization and our current industrial ecosystem. According to the study’s authors, a global lack of oil could represent a systemic risk to the functioning of global economies. As shown in the Finland study, everything in our modern world either runs on or is made from oil.

The study concludes the transition to clean energy and electric vehicles will not be smooth and will take much longer than what is commonly believed with the risk of disruption. Zeihan reaches the same conclusion from a different perspective geopolitically. Without energy, there is no industrial lifestyle. The problem with oil, according to Zeihan, is it is not where people are, and it is only thanks to American naval sea supremacy that has allowed oil to reach the people with minimum fuss. He points out that clean energy needs economies of scale: huge utility-level facilities in calm, sunny deserts or windswept plains-zones not well-known for hosting large population centers. This is in abundance in countries like the U.S., Australia, Mexico, Argentina, and South Africa. For the bulk of the other 85% of the earth’s land, green tech isn’t yet productive enough to be all that useful at displacing fossil fuels in scale. Zeihan emphasized four-fifths of the world’s international crude oil is waterborne. As the U.S. downsizes its navy and withdraws from being the world’s policeman, the transport of oil to where it’s needed will become more perilous.

In another important point from OilPrice.com, about 70% of the world’s oil supply comes from fields discovered before 1970, and the bulk of that oil comes from 10-20 enormous fields now in decline. Over 81% of existing oil production is already in decline with average decline rates from 5-7%. In order to make the transition to clean energy, we will need the discovery of four additional Saudi Arabia’s by 2040. U.S. shale is now running on fumes and needs higher oil prices in order to grow. Without oil, the world does not grow.

That is the reason we own oil and oil companies that pay good dividends. If you’re alive today or were just born, you will live in the oil age for the rest of this century despite what the pundits on Wall Street and Washington tell you.

Original Post

114 Comments on "The Things That Matter Don’t Change"

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 4:04 am

Juan, as a friend for many years now I recommend you go down the street and check into Douglas Gardens http://www.dgcmhc.org/ for therapy for Schizoaffective disorder that cuases your multiple personality sock puppets and obsessive cyber stalking behavior. Juan, get help you are sick and a danger to others. You may get deported too for being an illegal immigrant.

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 4:13 am

I was just telling my wife yesterday that I would very willingly give my arms, legs, tongue, eyes, ears, nuts, and dick to experience life like normal people do for just one hour to know what it feels like. I have been a seriously depressed realist since I have a memory. My first memory of my life is of leaning against a tree alone in my kindergarten’s playground looking at all the other kids playing, thinking how stupid their behavior was, and wondering why I wasn’t like them. I basically don’t interact with normal people anymore. They have nothing to offer me and I don’t want to give them anything.

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 5:46 am

How do y’all like our morning mental excersises so far?

Their REAL stimulatin to us. It’s how we keep ourselfs sharp.

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:02 am

Now fer sum REAL mentally challenging copyin and pastin.

“2 Individuals At AIPAC Conference With Pence, Pompeo, McConnell & Others Test Positive For Covid-19”
https://tinyurl.com/to7rze7 zero hedge

“Tehran is going to love this…”

“As the novel coronavirus spreads through Westchester County’s Jewish community following an outbreak in New Rochelle, it’s perhaps unsurprising that several individuals who attended the 2020 AIPAC conference, which was held in Washington DC earlier this week, have tested positive for the virus. The incident is rapidly becoming a lesson in just how difficult it is to keep VIPs – including even senior leaders in our government – away from the virus. In a statement released Friday evening, the organizers of the conference confirmed that two attendees had tested positive at an event where Vice President Mike Pence was a keynote speaker, and where several other senior administration officials were present. Other high-ranking Republicans in attendance included Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senator and former Trump rival Ted Cruz and Rep. Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.”

REAL Green on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:05 am

Whats AYPAC meen Davy and whys it so important to are politicians?

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:15 am

“Astronomers Detect Largest Explosion In The History Of The Universe Since The Big Bang Itself”
https://tinyurl.com/uhyhtbl zero hedge

“Researchers at the Curtin University International Centre for Radio Astronomy were observing the distant galaxy cluster Ophiuchus when they detected a huge explosion at the center of a supermassive black hole, approximately 390 million light-years from Earth. According to scientists, the explosion released five times more energy than the big bang.”

“Dr. Simona Giacintucci who works at the Naval Research Laboratory in the U.S., compared the explosion to the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, in which the top of the mountain was completely blown off.”

““It was REAL big” she was quoted as saying.”

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:25 am

How do y’all like our morning mental excersises so far boney joe?

Their REAL retarded to us. It’s how we keep ourselfs sharp.

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:26 am

Whats AYPAC meen boney joe and whys it so important to are politicians?

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:29 am

Astronomers fake Largest Explosion In juanPee Mind Since The Big Bung Itself
https://tinyurl.com zero hedge

Researchers at the Curtin University International Centre for Radio Astronomy were observing the distant galaxy cluster Ophiuchus in juanPee mind when they detected a huge explosion at the center of a supermassive black hole in his intelligence, approximately 390 million light-years from Earth. According to scientists, the explosion released five times more energy than the big bang. Dr. Simona Giacintucci who works at the Naval Research Laboratory in the U.S., compared the explosion to the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, in which the top of the mountain was completely blown off.

““juanPee was REAL stupid” she was quoted as saying.”

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:31 am

“Whats AYPAC meen Davy and whys it so important to are politicians?”

Were not REAL sure REAL Green but it likely has somethin to do with that Jeebus feller.

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:34 am

Now fer sum REAL mentally challenging copyin and pastin boney joe

“2 Individuals At Miami Beach community Garden Conference With Pence, Pompeo, McConnell & Others Test Positive For Covid-19”
https://tinyurl.com zero hedge

“makato1 is going to love this…”

“As the novel coronavirus spreads through Miami beach garden community following an outbreak in China, it’s perhaps unsurprising that several individuals who attended the 2020 AIPAC conference, which was held in Washington DC earlier this week, have tested positive for the virus. The incident is rapidly becoming a lesson in just how stupid juanPee is. juanPee lost his shit and got up waling and gnashing his teeth appearing insane. Many talked about deporting him.

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:35 am

Were not REAL sure REAL Gay but it likely has somethin to do with that gay date boney joe feller.

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:36 am

“”MILFs In Quarantine” – Coronavirus Porn Sweeps America”
https://tinyurl.com/wx9jkwe zero hedge

“One of the oddest videos Vice ran across is titled “Bodycam Footage (CDC Agent) Investigates Deserted Wuhan,” features a first-person point of view of a hospital worker stumbling around in the dark, uncovers a creepy hospital patient, and that’s the moment where we will stop describing what happens next… Another video Vice viewed is titled “COVID-19 Coronavirus: Horny Slut Has to Use Protection During Outbreak!” where amateur pornstar “Chase Poundher” emerges from the hallway wearing a face mask and tells a female performer entering the house, “Wait, don’t you move a foot closer. Haven’t you heard of COVID-19?” Mr. Poundher then lectures her for one minute about the virus, the outbreak in China, and mask safety.”

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:40 am

“Whats AYPAC meen Davy and whys it so important to are politicians?”

That’s a good question, son, I’m impressed!

It’s AIPAC btw.

AIPAC, that is the “Israel Lobby”, or “Deep State” or “Swamp” or “US Sanhedrin”. Every US politician needs to pay tribute to this cub, if not, he is simply not going to be certified US politician and hence no politician at all:

https://gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/039/142/276/original/6c42cf74d5cfa833.png

Here is nota bene a Dutch MSM documentary about AIPAC:

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/11/02/tegenlicht-the-israeli-lobby-about-aipac/

Dutch MSM, that is leftist, filo-semitic, true holo-believer and loyal to the US to the core, but nevertheless is somewhat uneasy with the power of the Israel Lobby.

Note, this is Dutch MSM, not David Duke.

Every year, every major US politician needs to show up at the AIPAC conference to kiss the ring of the owners of the US:

https://tinyurl.com/r3vybxl

AIPAC – American Israel Public Affairs Committee

Note that there is NO such thing as:

American Chinese Public Affairs Committee
American Japanese Public Affairs Committee
American German Public Affairs Committee

America is owned by jews and nobody else and they are using the clueless davy and sissyfuss and (English) joe esquire types to do their biding and “project power” all around the world in search for hapless territories, not yet under their “protection”.

Empire dave and joe esquire love “projecting power” around the world. Makes them feel reel exceptionalist, indispensible, important and warm and fuzzy. Superior even!

Yes, they quietly hate it that The Lobby intends to phase our two little critters out of existence through mass world immigration, nevertheless they are both so impressed by the power of The Lobby that they won’t lift a finger against their own demise. The know very well that cowboys alone would never have gotten that far.

Nevertheless there existed and still exist Americans with far more spine than empire dave and our Englishman joe esquire, who sadly summarized what happened in the 20th century, where there were only one real winners and that were the jews:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRiRH-0nk2g

But the 20th century is over and all is working against The Lobby:

– Putin (towering giant)
– European populism
– Trumps presidency (half-baked, true)
– Brexit, breaking the link between continental Europe and ZOG
– The threat of CW2

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:48 am

“”juanPee In Quarantine” – juanPee Caught with Coronavirus Porn”
https://tinyurl.com/juanp is a whorewx zero hedge

“One of the oddest videos Vice ran across is titled “Bodycam Footage (CDC Agent) Investigates juanPee and his STD’s,” features a first-person point of view of a hospital worker stumbling around in the dark, uncovers a creepy juanPee, and that’s the moment where we will stop describing what happens next… Another video Vice viewed is titled “COVID-19 Coronavirus: Horny juanPee Slut Has to Use Protection During Outbreak!” where amateur pornstar “juanPee” emerges from the hallway wearing a face mask and tells a female performer entering the house, “Wait, don’t you move a foot closer. Haven’t you heard of COVID-19?” Mr. small dick juanPee then lectures her for one minute about the virus, the outbreak in China, and mask safety.”

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:49 am

That’s a good question, juanPee, I’m so impressed! I want to suck your cock

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:50 am

I am spoken for cloggie. I suck Boney joe’s cock and swallow.

REAL Green on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:50 am

Whats MILF meen Davy?

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:51 am

Whats MILF meen boney joe?

Boney Joe on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:51 am

I means you are retarded and eat butt cheese

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:52 am

I finally did my DnA and I have a little Jew blood in me but that does not mean I am Zogged.

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:55 am

Will Brexit And Covid-19 End The EU?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/will-brexit-and-covid-19-end-eu

The EU and euro face a sudden deterioration in economic conditions due to the coronavirus, which seems certain to widen the differences between Germany and the spendthrift Mediterranean members. But a more immediate problem is the increasing likelihood that the ECB will lose control over financial asset prices, particularly those of government bonds.

In the short-term, it seems likely the euro will rise against the dollar as currency and financial distortions, principally in the fx swap market, are unwound. However, the eurozone faces a developing financial crisis comprised of the following elements: a collapse in economic activity, escalating payment failures, a drastic contraction of bank credit and a collapse in bond prices, as well as the medium used to buy them (the euro).

REAL Green on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:56 am

Thanks fer the link Abraham van Helsing. Sir.

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/11/02/tegenlicht-the-israeli-lobby-about-aipac/

Well be REAL sure to check it out. We like lurnin about stuff and such.

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:57 am

cloggie, I did my DNA and I am not huumaan. I am sui generis gay date. It shows I am from a 3rd world country and uneducated.

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:59 am

Thanks fer the link Abraham van Helsing. Sir.

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/11/02/tegenlicht-the-juanPee-gay-sucking-fag/

Boney Joe and me be REAL sure to check it out. We like suckin each odder and such.

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:00 am

JuanP, it is nothing. Could we meet sometime and trade notes and maybe more?

JuanP insantiy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:01 am

Mods please ban the lunatic

Abraham van Helsing said JuanP, it is nothing. Could we meet sometime and…
JuanP said Thanks fer the link Abraham van Helsing. Sir. http…
JuanP said cloggie, I did my DNA and I am not huumaan. I am…
REAL Green said Thanks fer the link Abraham van Helsing. Sir. http…
Abraham van Helsing said Will Brexit And Covid-19 End The EU? https://www.z…
Abraham van Helsing said I finally did my DnA and I have a little Jew blood…
Boney Joe said I means you are retarded and eat butt cheese
JuanP said Whats MILF meen boney joe?
REAL Green said Whats MILF meen Davy?
JuanP said I am spoken for cloggie. I suck Boney joe’s…
Abraham van Helsing said That’s a good question, juanPee, I’m so impressed!…
JuanP said “”juanPee In Quarantine” – juanPee Caught with Cor…
Abraham van Helsing said “Whats AYPAC meen Davy and whys it so import…
Davy said “”MILFs In Quarantine” – Coronav…
JuanP said Were not REAL sure REAL Gay but it likely has some…
JuanP said Now fer sum REAL mentally challenging copyin and p…
Davy said “Whats AYPAC meen Davy and whys it so important to…
JuanP said Astronomers fake Largest Explosion In juanPee Mind…
JuanP said Whats AYPAC meen boney joe and whys it so importan…
JuanP said How do y’all like our morning mental excersises so…

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:04 am

Now that were fully mentally simulated.

Its time fer sum goat hurdin!

More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:06 am

Mods please ban the lunatic

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:19 am

Now that were fully mentally simulated.

Its time fer sum gay hurdin!

JuanP is stupid on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:20 am

This is from stupid

More Lunatic Davy ID Fraud on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:06 am

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:21 am

Can I join you juanP? I love the tough of some stimulation being old and limp.

makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:22 am

meToo juanPee, love

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:50 am

How to sit out your Corona infection?

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2020/03/07/how-to-sit-out-your-corona-infection/

REAL Green on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 8:36 am

Davy needs to stick with his old standbys- hairy and morbidly obese truckers like Don Trump (note: Trump engaged in back public hair to scalp transplant over a six month period, which accounts for his kinky hair, but at least the collar matches the cuffs!!!!!)

Duncan Idaho on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 9:28 am

“Trump’s political base shares some base demographic characteristics of the unfortunate souls who have perished to COVID-19.”

Oil, Fat, Unhealthy and Stupid?
Unfortunately that is 40% of the electorate.

Boney Joe on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 9:58 am

juanPee needs to stick with his old standbys- hairy and morbidly obese truckers like Don Trump (note: Trump engaged in back public hair to scalp transplant over a six month period, which accounts for his kinky hair, but at least the collar matches the cuffs!!!!!)

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 10:03 am

The fools JuanP and makati1 told us the flu was so much worse. DUMBASS

“Expect Up To 40% Of Tehran’s Population To Be Infected In 2 Weeks: Iranian Health Official”
https://tinyurl.com/ujv8klt zero hedge

“Health officials worry that Iran could be a sign of things to come in the much of the rest of the world — a deeply alarming prospect given a member of Iran’s National Committee for Influenza and specialist in infectious diseases, Dr. Masoud Mardani, has just issued a stark warning for the capital city of Tehran, brimming with about 9 million people and over 12 million in the greater metropolitan area. Dr. Mardai said he expects 30 to 40 percent of Tehran’s population to be infected with coronavirus within the next two weeks. He was quoted in state media as saying: “Coronavirus is rapidly spreading … we estimate that 30 to 40 percent of Tehran’s population will be infected by the end of this (Persian) month.” The current Persian month is the last month of the Persian calendar and ends on March 20, Al Arabiya English notes. According to a summary of his statements given to an Iranian newspaper, he said further: …an infected person could transmit the virus to four people at the same time. Therefore it is expected that 30-40 per cent of Tehran’s population will be infected with the virus by March. He pointed out that many Iranians visit health centers and hospitals when they have regular flu, believing it is a coronavirus.”

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 10:07 am

Hey, JuanP/makato1 #FOOLS#. Tell us how its all overblown. LMFAO AT DUMBASS

“HEALTHFormer Supermarket Boss Warns of Potential Coronavirus “Food Riots,” Army Patrols”
https://tinyurl.com/vmauc3z summit news

“Former Tesco supply chain director Bruno Monteyne warns that a large scale outbreak of coronavirus in the UK could lead to “food riots,” requiring the army to be used to guard supermarkets. Monteyne said that supermarkets would have to resort to drastic measures and revert to “feed the nation status” under a worse case scenario. He also cautioned that grocery stores would have trouble stocking shelves and delivering goods if their employees decided to self-isolate. “Yes, it will be chaotic (and expect pictures of empty shelves),” wrote Mr Monteyne, “but the industry will reduce complexity to keep the country fed.” He said that the army may need to be drafted in to guard stores and prevent disorder. UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he was “confident” food supplies would not run out and that there was “absolutely no need” to panic-buy. Hancock also claimed that supermarkets could deliver food to coronavirus patients who had self-isolated, although this claim was immediately put in doubt by one supermarket executive, who said he was “baffled” by the suggestion. “Matt Hancock has totally made up what he said about working with supermarkets. We haven’t heard anything from government directly,” the executive said, adding, “I’m not sure the government can guarantee all food supply in all instances.” A source at another supermarket told the BBC that there had been no detailed planning involving government departments about “ensuring uninterrupted food supplies.” Panic buying continued across the UK today, with supermarket shelves of goods like hand sanitizer, toilet paper and medicine. The number of coronavirus cases in the UK has now reached 163, with two deaths.”

joe on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 10:16 am

Sadly they are mostly rednex out in the woods, vivid is spread by contact. It’s more likely to kill elderly liberals in the cities. Being a hick ain’t so bad for ur health afterall

Cloggie on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 10:29 am

Davy, you have no friends for many years now but we recommend you go down the street and check into Pathways Comm Behavioral Healthcare, Salem Office for therapy for Schizoineffective disorder that causes your multiple personality sock puppets and obsessive cyber stalking behavior. davy, get help you are sick and a danger to others. You may get reported too for being a serial goat abuser.

Cloggie on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 12:16 pm

JuanP, you have no friends for many years now but we recommend you go down the street and check into Douglas Gardens Mental Health clinic http://www.dgcmhc.org for therapy for Schizoineffective disorder that causes your multiple personality sock puppets and obsessive cyber stalking behavior. JuanP, get help you are sick and a danger to others. You may get reported too for being a serial cyber stalker and FOOL.

Duncan Idaho on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 12:22 pm

5 years of Intel CPUs and chipsets have a concerning flaw that’s unfixable

“Because the flaw resides in the CSME mask ROM, a piece of silicon that boots the very first piece of CSME firmware, the vulnerability can’t be patched with a firmware update.”

“This vulnerability jeopardizes everything Intel has done to build the root of trust and lay a solid security foundation on the company’s platforms,”

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 12:49 pm

“All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis”
https://tinyurl.com/rvckuv7 zero hedge

“A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if the virus tracks with Italy’s figures and 10% of patients require an ICU. Medical workers in protective suits attend to coronavirus patients in the intensive care unit of a designated hospital in Wuhan, in China’s Hubei province, last week. (China Daily/Reuters) Of note, the Straits Times reported last week that thousands of people were waiting for hospital beds in South Korea as the disease surges. Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, or continue reading below. Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits”

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 12:51 pm

part II

• We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
• We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
• As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
• What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
• The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
• Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients).
• By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)
• If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd.
• If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.
• As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 12:52 pm

Part III

• Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing).
• There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.)
• As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day.
• One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused.
• How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas… again, predominantly from China.
• Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor.
• Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix.
• HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above.
• We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going.
• Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works.
• Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.
• I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan.
• Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong.
• But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”.
• These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system.
• And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared?
• Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out.
• One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year.
• Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population.
• But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months.
• That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge.
• This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
• That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 1:43 pm

So far. Slightly over one in a million Americans have tested positive for the virus.

It’s time to panic y’all. Make sure to buy tons of toilet paper. Cus that’s REAL important.

WE ALL GONNA DIE !!!!!!

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 1:46 pm

Just so y’all no. A millions not as big as it used to be.

WOOO WOOO!!!

Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 1:51 pm

Theres nothin to fear but fear itself.

And runnin out of toilet paper.

Thats the worse.

JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 3:35 pm

So far. Slightly over one in a million South Americans have tested positive for the virus.

It’s time to panic y’all. Make sure to buy tons of toilet paper. Cus that’s REAL important.

I AM GONNA DIE !!!!!!

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