Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on August 18, 2018
No Seller – Not Even China – Can Disrupt US By Selling Treasurys…But The “Why” Ain’t Good
I often read that China may retaliate against US trade sanctions by further decreasing their US Treasury holdings, sending Treasury yields significantly higher, thus blowing out US deficit spending on interest payments. Trouble is, Chinese Treasury holdings peaked in 2014 (on an annualized basis) and have been declining since. The Chinese have not only ceased accumulating US Treasury debt, despite continued record trade surplus’ with the US resulting in significant dollar surplus’, but have been decreasing their holdings. All this, according to the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system.
But this postulation that the Chinese could wound the US via selling a portion (or all) of its Treasury holdings (as Russia recently did) is submarined by the recent actions of the Federal Reserve. I say this based on the magnitudes greater accumulation and subsequent dumping of specific maturities of US Treasury debt done by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve accumulated almost $800 billion in 7 to 10 year US Treasury debt (red line, chart below) from 2009 to 2013, and then subsequently dumped $600 billion from early 2014 through the most present August 2018 data. And the impact on the 10 year yield (blue shaded area, chart below)…essentially zero. Yes, while the Fed rolled off and/or sold off 7 to 10 year holdings, they were busy buying short term debt. But this still meant someone had to step up in duration and buy all that longer duration debt the Fed no longer wanted.
To put the relative size of China’s 7 to 10 year holdings in perspective to the Fed’s like holdings, the chart above estimates that a third of Chinese Treasury holdings (likely an overestimation) were of the 7 to 10 year variety (gold line). The Fed has already rolled off / sold off 1.5x’s more 7 to 10 year debt than the Chinese even have. The impact on the 10 year Treasury yield while the Fed plus China sold off / rolled off a combined $650 billion of 7 to 10 year debt…essentially zero!!!
But to explain why the yields did not react (and likely never will), I have to take a step back and highlight the changing underlying population and demographics that are driving this.
Population / Demographics
The 25 to 54 year old US population and employment among them (and subsequent capability to consume) consistently grew in the post WWII period until 2000. But in 2000, the population growth decelerated (brown line, chart below) and employment among them significantly fell (blue line). The 25 to 54 year old population has only minimally grown since 2000 and not grown at all since 2007…but employment among the core (that makes up 70% of the US workforce and pays the vast majority of the Social Security taxes) is essentially right where it was in 2000.
To broaden the view, check the 15 to 64 year old US total population (red line, chart below) versus year over year changes in that population (blue columns). Obviously, the peak year over year population growth took place in 1998 (adding 2.7 million persons in that year alone) but growth has decelerated over 80% since that peak growth. The heyday of fast growing populations (at least, those under 65) and increasing quantities of employees, tax payers, and/or consumers has run its course…yet politicians and the Fed still target and tout economic growth, as if nothing had changed. However, the continued growth in US employment (and consumption) is simply mathematically running out of able bodies (Detailed HERE). Plus, the population growth estimates through 2030 shown below are premised on continuing significant rates of immigration. Absent a significant net inflow of immigrants, the under 65 year old population will be in outright decline. Of course, the changing population growth and demographics (particularly among the populations that do the vast majority of consuming) is a global issue (Detailed HERE).
Conversely, the 65+ year old population really began rocketing upward about 2008 and will hit its year over year peak growth in 2024. The population of 65+ year olds will increase by 20+ million from ’18 through ’30 versus an increase of less than 4 million among the 15 to 64 year olds. But worse still, over half that growth will be among the 75+ year olds. This will be the death knell of many poorly thought out programs premised on perpetual growth.
This has resulted in a debt fueled “extend and pretend” frenzy. The chart below shows annual 15 to 64 year old US population growth (yellow line) versus stacked columns showing annual consumer, federal, and corporate debt growth. One has to be very highly compensated to miss the explosion in debt tied to the slowdown in core population growth.
Federal Debt and the Intra-governmental Trust Fund
First, a look at US federal debt, split between US Public debt (marketable) and US Intra-Governmental debt (Social Security and other trust fund surplus’). Up to 2007, the Social Security and other federal trust fund surplus’ were mandated to purchase and hold US debt, to the tune of 44% of total US debt. But since 2007, federal debt issuance has been skyrocketing while the pace of IG purchasing continues decelerating. This means 85% of Treasury debt issued since ’07 has been marketable (marketable debt has risen $10.6 trillion versus a $1.8 trillion increase among the IG trust funds). This is a clean tripling of marketable debt and the IG trust funds will peak and begin declining likely prior to 2020, and 100%+ of all Treasury debt will be marketable from that point forward.
Which is to say, the remaining three sources of buying will have to really step up their appetite for US debt. But foreigners and the Federal Reserve have already ceased buying (net), and the sole buyer remaining is the domestic public (domestic insurers, banks, mutual funds, pensions, etc.).
Foreigners
From 2000 to 2007, foreigners purchased $1.3 trillion in net Treasury debt but from 2008 through 2014, foreigners stepped up to the plate nearly tripling their holdings, buying $3.8 trillion in net debt. However, since late 2014, foreigners have not only ceased buying US debt (net) but have followed the Fed’s lead and are presently net sellers.
Focusing on the three largest foreign holders of US Treasury’s; China, Japan, and the BLICS (Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Cayman Islands, Switzerland). China holdings peaked way back in 2011 while Japan and the BLICS peaked as QE ended and have been declining since. Upon the termination of QE, foreigners simply lost their appetite for US debt.
Below, a close up on the BLICS. What is noteworthy is the great scramble in these shadow banking capitals, particularly during each of the recent financial upheavals. And judging by the sharp movements again taking place in these unregulated, off-shore shells for hot money…things are again (perhaps not surprisingly) in upheaval.
Federal Reserve
The chart below details the size and shifting maturities of the Treasury’s held on the Federal Reserve balance sheet from 2003 to present. The total holdings of Treasury’s tripled and the Fed has now decreased total holdings from the peak by about $130 billion. However, the maturities held on their balance sheet have radically changed. The Fed has maintained nearly all their 20 to 30 year holdings. sold off two thirds their 7 to 10 year holdings, while initially buying in bulk 1 to 5 year but now piling into less than 1 year debt.
The Fed (and foreigners) ceased buying and turned to net sellers by 2015 as the IG trust fund buying continued decelerating against ramping Treasury issuance. This meant there was only one buyer left, the domestic public. But for domestic buyers, the spread between short term borrowing and long-term yields was falling from over 250 basis points in early 2014 to the current 26 basis points (grey shaded area in the chart below versus Fed’s shifting holdings).
Essentially, the utilization of leverage to enjoy the spread of borrowing short to buy long nearly evaporated while the relative benefit of buying short has outweighed the risk of going long. But we are to believe that as the Fed went on a short duration buying spree since 2015 (purple line below) coupled with a 7 to 10 year dump (yellow line) domestic sources piled into 7 to 10 year US debt (unleveraged?) to soak up the flood of assets destined to underperform inflation?!?
Domestic Public
So who among the domestic public is buying all that 7 to 10 year unleveraged debt, destined to underperform inflation? Not banks, or insurers, or state and local pensions…no, according to the Treasury Bulletin its a group originally intended as a catch all for the rounding errors, “other”. So “other”, with an assist from mutual funds, is saving America from having to face an interest rate Armageddon!?! The Treasury Bulletin defines “other” as follows; “includes individuals, Government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts and estates, corporate and non-corporate businesses, and other investors.” Make of that what you will, but I’m pretty confident buying 7 to 10 year debt, at this point, would be a quick means to significantly underperform and thus, real buyers wouldn’t do so…which means it’s a buyer(s) without profit motive that is “extending and pretending” our current economic and financial system for as long as possible. How much further this can go is difficult to say…but the shrinking number of winners and growing numbers of losers is more easily calculated.
Conclusion:
In short, Bernie Madoff would blush at the farce that is now the US Treasury market (further manipulating all downstream interest rate sensitive markets). A little lie or meddling led to more lying and more meddling…and suddenly the free market no longer exists. It should be clear that a buyer without profit motive is intervening in the Treasury market to maintain a bid and sustain continued low rates on US debt…all this because America has matured but those in control still want to synthetically maintain growth rates (hello China) via unrestrained debt issuance. Regardless how much debt the US issues and how few buyers remain, don’t look for interest rates to rise in kind.
99 Comments on "No Seller – Not Even China – Can Disrupt US By Selling Treasurys…But The “Why” Ain’t Good"
makati1 on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 6:34 pm
This is an ‘opinion’ piece, not fact. It is MY opinion that rates will continue to rise and the whole house of cards will come crashing down as unpayable loans cause defaults and bankruptcies everywhere.
But then, the crash is also likely to be caused by the Fed NOT raising interest rates. After all, the plan is to level the US, not sustain it longer than necessary. Just long enough for the oligarchs to bleed it ( you, the sheeple) dry. I think we are fast approaching that point. This year? Next? Soon!
Davy on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 6:42 pm
“This is an ‘opinion’ piece, not fact. It is MY opinion that rates will continue to rise and the whole house of cards will come crashing down as unpayable loans cause defaults and bankruptcies everywhere.”
How high are they going to go slip slidin, our board economist? Do you know why rates will keep going up or does that just sound good? Which rates are going up, slip slidin, Turkey maybe? Most of what I read says Fed rates are going to stall out soon not keep going up. Please enlighten us great slip slidin.
“But then, the crash is also likely to be caused by the Fed NOT raising interest rates.”
You are sounding confused, slip slidin, have you been drinking on the beach maybe?
“After all, the plan is to level the US, not sustain it longer than necessary. Just long enough for the oligarchs to bleed it ( you, the sheeple) dry.”
LOL, what gave you that idea, slip slidin, could it be what you emotionally want being projected? Ask your buddy phony juan about the word projecting. He loves it.
JuanP on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 7:36 pm
Delusional Davy “Ask your buddy phony juan about the word projecting. He loves it.”
God, you are an infantile motherfucker! You are such an unbelievably pathetic fuck!
makati1 on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 8:03 pm
Do any of you realize that Davy needs to be recognized. He NEEDS it, in any form, as there is no other place he can get any kind of recognition, that he is even alive, then here. If we ALL just ignored him, he would eventually go away.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 9:16 pm
Mak
At least davy doesn’t just jump other peoples asses for no logical reason..Me and davy might agree about somethings but I usually don’t have any problems with him because he doesn’t ever attack me for no reason..Unlike you do all the time..
You are a bitter old crank..that nobody loves..
twocats on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 9:19 pm
We just don’t know and might never know the full extent of the Shadow Propping that is going on globally. the big mistake POD advocates made was to underestimate just how mutated the global economy could become and still function.
zerohedge isn’t good for much – but they’ve been following this issue for years. and they seem fairly convinced that the “other” buyers are out of the caymans – which could basically mean anyone.
It would only mildly surprise me if we learned that the “other” buyers were CIA funded hedge funds that got their money running Taliban poppy fields in Afghanistan.
The US is legit gangsta – a Mexico where the cartel is in official power.
twocats on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 9:26 pm
“Mak – At least davy doesn’t just jump other peoples asses for no logical reason.”
Disagree MM. Mak made it clear is was HIS opinion. Just an opinion. Now I agree that Davy’s questions are legit – how are the mechanisms of yield increase going to go. but he did it with quite a bit of “slip slidin” into attack mode.
its not like the article was super pro america, and mak’s was almost neutral on america itself, and more attacking its oligarchs, which we should all be able to agree are blood-sucking monsters.
davy is defending the honor of his country and I can respect that – but its not blameless either. don’t be a suck-up, davy doesn’t need a hype man – he can take care of himself.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 9:34 pm
Behold the master race!
https://i.redd.it/xzo7km12gyg11.png
The globalist are going down!
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 9:37 pm
Twocats
Davy doesn’t go out of his way to make problems on the board..Mak does all the time..He woke up today came on here and started insulting everyone..
makati1 on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 9:55 pm
MM, you are either as insane as Davy, or you are a Davy sock puppet. There is no other option. You are scared shitless because deep down you know that you are going to either suffer with the rest of Americans or commit suicide to avoid that fate. Either way, your cushy life is coming to an end.
Protecting insane, delusional Davy is as bad as protecting the US ‘right’ to kill innocent women and children and plunder in your name. All those who do so deserve the worse place in hell, if there is one, AFTER you suffer the blow-back consequences here. Anyone sitting on the fence deserves the same. There is no logical, moral or intelligent reason to support the empire. None!
Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 9:59 pm
OTOH, if the clowns writing this blog were so prescient about debt that they could accurately predict interest rates, they could make a bloody FORTUNE buying and selling (including shorting) bonds in a timely manner.
Yet, instead of becoming wildly rich, they run a blog with lots of pretty charts to put food on the table.
So there’s that. (Which is no different than all the blogs selling subscriptions claiming they know what stocks to buy, etc.)
It’s easy to make economic predictions. It’s much harder to have to make ACCURATE predictions.
Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 10:01 pm
If makati1 makes 1000 predictions, what are they worth? Almost nothing, as they’re almost always wrong.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 10:22 pm
Mak
I don’t care if davy supports the US or doesn’t..I only care about people attacking me for no reason like you do..Davy doesn’t do that to me..And save me your self serving self righteousness..You just want others to feel the way you do on the inside..misery loves company and you are one lonely and miserable old crank..
makati1 on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 10:46 pm
Outcast, you have no proof that they are “Wrong”. Just because you refuse to see the proof does not change it. The US is collapsing right now. The USD is shrinking in importance and value. The daily news tells how in a million ways. You just don’t want to see. There is a word for that: DENIAL.
You are obviously another brainwashed tax serf sucking down that government Koolaid by the gallons. But, since I will not be able to break your conditioning, I will just say: “I told you so!” when it becomes too obvious for any one to ignore. That day is fast approaching.
Cloggie on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 11:02 pm
At least the Soviet empire died, not with a bang but a whimper, not a single drop of blood was shed, apart from the horrors in Chechnya three years later, when Putin decided that Moscow had lost control over enough territory. Russia had done all the suffering under communism and in WW2. After 1991 the only way was up, all they had to do was cancel a useless leftist central planning economic system with a stroke of a pen. The greatest capital Russia has is a relatively ethnic homogenity of more than 90% Russians, west of the Urals, which guarantees social stability.
The US won’t be so lucky. They may have grown fat between 1945-2007, world-wide the US was enviously associated with happiness and prosperity, but the oligarchs decided it was not to last and since 1933 had decided that:
a) the enormous oil-based economy and resources of the country were to be used to set up a global empire, with Europe as the first target
b) and since 1965 that the world should be one country, with nations and borders abolished and all populations mixed and everybody who resisted that drive was to be branded a “racist”.
After 1991 and the demise of the USSR it seemed as if the US racial flavor of communism (=One World) would materialize, under the control of Washington and NATO…
https://youtu.be/0y7vs9cV3iA
…but out of the blue challengers to that idea rose up, in this order:
Russia
China
Islam
United Europe
US populism (internet, Trump)
The most important development was the formation of SCO. And although that alliance could not beat NATO, it could not be beaten by NATO either.
Now US expansion has come to a shrieking halt, with a number of geopolitical failures/blunders in a row, all in the ME. Meanwhile the US oligarchs have admitted defeat:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-27/america-s-new-world-order-is-officially-dead
Now what?
The US is carrying the immense cost of a useless MIC without imperial returns. The US population, that gladly had embraced the juvenile idea of “exceptionalism”, basically fatties thinking they are special, are now faced with a world that thinks: “come and get us, f*cker”.
President Trump has drawn the only correct conclusion, namely “America First”, now that One World is not going to happen, in order to attempt to rebuild US industries that essentially had lost the competition on world markets, witnessing the enormous trade deficits.
Is this going to work? Will America succeed in stepping down and become a normal big power like China or Russia?
Unlikely. Reason: diversity. America, after decades of mass immigration from the third world, in an attempt to create a new country that should function as a model for the rest of the world with mixed populations, is facing balkenization of incompatible groups that can’t stand each other.
The world turns out to be “racist” after all.
The most prominent apologists for the empire, millimind and davy, know exactly what is coming. The former is flirting with suicide, the latter has an escape-route to Italy, although they both have a face-saving fake pretext for the demise of their beloved mass-murder operation: peak-oil.lol
The coming upheavel will put the demise of the USSR in the shadow. CW in the US and probably in western Europe as well.
makati1 on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 11:03 pm
MM, you give anyone ‘attacking’ you many reasons every day. Here are a few ofthe most recent, Look familiar?
“You are a bitter old crank..that nobody loves.”
“you are one lonely and miserable old crank”
“You low IQ moron..”
” you fucking tool bag”
“your wife left you, and your family wants nothing to do with you.”(Your fiction/lie, MM)”
“You are just a low IQ white peckerwood.”
“you piece of soggy white bread.”
When you resort to childish name calling, do you expect to be taken seriously? Only if you are insane. Just like Davy, you refuse to see yourself realistically. You just suffer from the same arrogance, immorality, immaturity and delusions as he does.
You NEED attention, even if it is abusive, just like he does. (Masochistic?) You are very insecure. Are you a Davy sock puppet? Sure seems so to many of us in the real, sane world. So many similarities.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 11:17 pm
Mak
I don’t have a right to defend myself? The insults to you were after you attacked me first..And the same is true about clog..
If you live in a glass house, don’t throw stones old man..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 11:18 pm
Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold? (Bongaarts 2018) Science
https://www.scribd.com/document/386526685/Global-warming-policy-Is-population-left-out-in-the-cold-Bongaarts-2018-Science
makati1 on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 11:36 pm
Mm, you started attacking me when you came onto the forum long ago. It started with your first post. Do some research. You do not debate as an intelligent adult.
You regress to childishness every time you cannot refute the assertion made. What I said above is true. Prove me wrong by your actions here. Grow up and act intelligent. Treat everyone here as your equal, not as a threat to your security. That threat is from your own government, not us.
Anonymouse1 on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 11:57 pm
Not only did ‘mushmind’ here, attack you right from the get go mak, he also used all of the exceptionalturds canards and stupid talking points from minute one. He talked to, and about, like he and you had a history. Which of course, is odd, considering ‘mushmind’ here, literally appeared out of nowhere. In addition, he immediately joined the excpetionalturd without hesitation or prompting, in attacking you and Greg. Which from the very beginning, seemed to be his one and only priority.
Again, using all the excpetionlturds identical, and delusional talking points.
Small wonder then, that ‘mushmind’ here, has no ‘issues’ with the delusionalturd.
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 12:23 am
Anon, maybe Davy is a father figure for MM? Or MM is a clone/sock puppet. I cannot think of any other reason for the identical attack/putdown/exceptionalist stance.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 12:49 am
Mak
I never attacked you from the start and there is no way for me to go back and prove it..You are the one attacking me today and I punched back..You are a petty old lonely geezer who needs to change his dirty diaper..
LMFAO!
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 1:14 am
Denial does not change the fact that you did, MM, All the people on here, that were here then, know that my claim is fact. Yours is denial. And there is that 12 year old tantrum throwing brat again!
“You are a petty old lonely geezer who needs to change his dirty diaper..”
You are so much like Davy, you have to be the same delusional liar.
Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:52 am
maybe Davy is a father figure for MM? Or MM is a clone/sock puppet. I cannot think of any other reason for the identical attack/putdown/exceptionalist stance.
They are absolutely two different individuals, but with the same imperial intentions and criminal energy, who don’t mind making millions of casualties for the cause of the empire. Davy is only far better able to hide his intentions; he fooled me for years, until he finally made his mistake and gloated: “we kicked your asses” (1945).
Now both davy and millimind are my enemies, who need to be defeated, militarily, a planetary cancer that needs to be cut out. And it won’t be long until they will be. Time is ticking, not only against the empire, but also against the US itself. Too many enemies, externally and more important, internally.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 5:02 am
“maybe Davy is a father figure for MM? Or MM is a clone/sock puppet. I cannot think of any other reason for the identical attack/putdown/exceptionalist stance.” “Now both davy and millimind are my enemies, who need to be defeated, militarily, a planetary cancer that needs to be cut out. And it won’t be long until they will be. Time is ticking, not only against the empire, but also against the US itself. Too many enemies, externally and more important, internally.”
Listen to the whining of the two lonely old men. They don’t like to have their extremism moderated. Their message is neutered by little more than balance and objectivity. Neder’s fantasy world is so easy to shoot down. His history revisions have little credibility or they would be the talk of the town as fantastic as they are. IOW neder and slip slidin are board noise. If I attack this it is in the name of sane intellectual goals of a board that still has some credibility. Credibility is nearly gone as a place for intelligent people to go because of this tabloid. Spamming a personal agenda is not advancing the truth.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 5:12 am
“in attacking you and Greg. Which from the very beginning, seemed to be his one and only priority.”
Asperger I agree I have been attacking slip slidin now for a long time. In the beginning I tried to make friends with him when he was not so rabidly extreme. You and greggie have been attacking me from the start. You anti-American Canadians have been here attacking Americans exclusively. This is nearly all you do, Asperger. Greggie does try to contribute but most of his activity is anti-American trolling. I have offered to do a mutual deal with greggie of ignoring each other but he is not interested. He says he is protecting the board from a bully. Lol. He is protecting his father figure, slip slidin and his extremist drivel. I also had an understanding with phony juan and we ignored each other for years but that ended when he went off his meds. You Asperger are probably the ugliest of the board noise. At least phony juan, greggie, slip slidin, and neder contribute sometimes. You on a very rare occasions say something of substance. You are an example of the worst of our regulars. The gangbangers of course like you because you are like their gimp doing their dirty troll work they can’t do too much or they look like a fool. You are daily the fool, asperger.
twocats on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:57 am
unlike with the israeli/palestinian conflict we will never know who “started” the original conflict between the two, who escalated at one point, and who is the main aggressor between Davy/et al and mak/greg/et al. on this particular thread it was Davy (mak made first comment, davy’s first comment although it contained a ton of great points, had a number of fairly unnecessary insults, including bringing in juanp). but i’m sure you could find a bunch of threads where mak fired the first shot.
and on it goes. page after page. i like having both opinions so it doesn’t really bother me, i just have to scan over the insults.
politics is a battle. this blog is just a battle of ideas. but in the real world its a real battle – with all battles contained within it.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:36 am
Great two cats, now say something. These games will go on until we that are locked in battle retire. Neder and slip slidin spam this board with their agenda daily 24/7/365. If you ever noticed I don’t say much if extremist agenda is not spammed on any particular day. I generally ignore the ones or twos of people who pop in. If I don’t comment on the better comments it is because they deserve a place on the board. The trolls here get my full attention. War is better than a bad peace. In the name of trying to defuse the bullshit on this board back in July I decided to ignore all the extremist and trolls here and just comment rather indirectly. Well that didn’t work. These extremist want this activity. They like conflict. They taunted me and made every effort to attack me. This is especially true of greggie, slip slidin and phony juan. Phony juan went as far as using my name to make comments and disable my name being used. I guess he did this by repeatedly entering my name or something. So if this is what they want then I will give them a good dose of the same shit they give me. For me it is good intellectual workout. It is character building to take on these scumbags. I am torn between annoying good commenters and turning off visitors but the extremist and trolls are already doing that. If I retire then this board is made extreme without balance. The extremist and trolling wins. I have made it clear I will ignore greggie and phony juan for the better of the board because all that turns into is a bitch fest. These dumbass don’t debate they just trade insults. I will ignore neder and slip slidin if they moderate. The blind lying liberals here will get my ire if they are too extreme. That is my position and this being an unmoderated forum then we need to make bilateral deals to better the board. Two Cats whining does accomplish anything anymore. Positions are too hardened. You will have to join the battles or just watch from the sidelines. If you want to join the battles then the best way is contribute instead of whining. We know most people do not approve of this behavior. Most people do not approve of war but there has never been peace on earth. Get used to it.
twocats on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:15 am
“i like having both opinions so it doesn’t really bother me,” – twocats
I hear your frustration – and I do try and defend you when I agree with your positions. notice that mak never really responded to your legit questions – just breezed over to the tit-for-tat.
like i’ve said before your voice is critical to the blog – you are correct in staying.
twocats on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:18 am
the world is literally ending right before my eyes. and my day-to-day life is pretty wretched as well – and I supposedly have a “good job” and “first world lifestyle”. that’s why I don’t choose sides – we’re all drowning and fighting for the last piece of flotsam on the open ocean.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:38 am
Two cats you are a valuable voice on this board and maintain yourself above the fray. I admire that out of you. I guess I am a fighter because of the way my life was growing up. For example I saw right through the conservative mentality of many around me once I got educated. This education was not only schooling. I read extensively own my own. I also lived in Europe for a few years in Germany and Spain. I spent time in Italy and France also. My wife is a liberal Italian which I have heated discussions with. Keep up the good work we need more of your type here and less of my type and those I battle.
Bloomer on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:33 am
Demographics do indeed influence interest rates. As the population grows older in the US and the Western world, aggragate demand for new goods and services diminish.
However the elephant in the room is the humungous government, consumer, and business debt levels that are spiralling out of control. If everyone is borrowing who will service the debt. Cranking up the printing press only leds to hyper inflation and this will be what triggers rising interest rates. A world of perpetual stagflation has arrived.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:51 pm
“You and greggie have been attacking me from the start.”
More of your usual delusional BS Davy.
Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2015 8:49 pm
“Yea, Greg, we would make best of friends.”
As I predicted years ago Davy, unless you seek professional help, your state of mental health will continue to deteriorate.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:05 pm
“These games will go on until we that are locked in battle retire.”
The only one here who believes that he is at war Davy, would be you.
“Neder and slip slidin spam this board with their agenda daily 24/7/365.”
Both Cloggie and Makati1 are entitled to their own opinions Davy. Just because their opinions upset you does not make them “extremists”.
“These extremist want this activity. They like conflict.”
“I have made it clear I will ignore greggie and phony juan for the better of the board because all that turns into is a bitch fest.”
You have been asked by others repeatedly to keep it civil Davy. To put an end to your constant harassment, bullying, and personal attacks against others here on a daily basis, but you refuse to stop.
“That is my position and this being an unmoderated forum then we need to make bilateral deals to better the board.”
Attacking others because you have a problem with their opinions, does nothing to advance rational debate or discussion Davy. You have no right to tell other people what they are allowed to think, feel, believe, or post. You have also been asked repeatedly to formulate coherent rebuttals to other peoples’ viewpoints, yet your response always ends up with name calling, childish rhetoric, and delusional accusations.
You need professional psychological help Davy.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:08 pm
Greggie, we have a lot in common but the difference is you hate Americans and your passion is fighting them. I still remember in the old days on this board when you Canadians ganged up to ridicule me as an American. Now you made an enemy for life. You created by your malfeasance a anti-Canadian. If you extremist anti-American Canadians don’t watch what you are doing this activity is going to blow up in your faces.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:13 pm
Greggie, when you talk like you do above you are talking to yourself and your gang. Most people are aware of your character assassinations. People know you support and enable those who attack others. You are a double standard hypocritical asshole. You can babble all you like but the fact is you are an extremist anti-American and will never change. You are my enemy and I will never allow you rest. Now stupid say something. I know it is easier to whine but for the others here who are tired of this bitch fest noise, say something.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:19 pm
Davy,
I do not hate anybody. Hate is a useless human emotion. If you choose to consider other people who have different opinions or viewpoints than you do as enemies, you will find yourself very alone in life, and your assertion that you are anti-Canadian, speaks volumes to your state of mental health.
You are in desperate need of psychological intervention Davy. Please go and talk with a mental healthcare professional.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:54 pm
Excptionalturd, you have very little in common with Greg, beyond mundane matters such as gender and so on.
Greg, is sane, rational, and intelligent and quite reasonable by any measure. Nor does he fabricate, or exaggerate his status or accomplishments ether. Which is in stark contrast, to you, delusionalist.
You, otoh, are stark raving mad, are not particularly intelligent. You fabricate sock-puppets out of thin air to ‘help’ you with your endless battles here, and regularly make assertions about past and current events, that are, to put it charitably, not support by reality.
Greg does none of these things. You have far less in common than you would like to believe.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 4:47 pm
Delusional Davy “Most people are aware of your character assassinations.”
You are projecting again, Davy! LOL!
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 4:57 pm
Delusional Davy “I also had an understanding with phony juan and we ignored each other for years but that ended when he went off his meds.”
We never had an understanding, Exceptionalist. I just tried to ignore your insults, attacks, lies, and bullying, but I am sick and tired of you and now you will never get another break. And I didn’t start this, you did, and I gave you three chances to give it up, but you persisted. I warned that I would fuck with you for the whole summer if you didn’t stop, but you didn’t. Now this is forever, goat fucked son of a fucking whore.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 5:00 pm
Delusional Davy “I have made it clear I will ignore greggie and phony juan for the better of the board because all that turns into is a bitch fest.”
You can’t ignore me, Exceptionalist! You take the bait every single fucking time! You have to have the last word, and that is your curse because this will only stop if you stop first.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 5:05 pm
Davy, You and Greg are nothing like each other. Greg is a much better person than you are.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 5:08 pm
Delusional Davy “Phony juan went as far as using my name to make comments and disable my name being used.”
More lies from the board’s biggest liar. Do you have any evidence to backup that ridiculous assertion? No, you don’t!
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 5:15 pm
Lies, lies, more lies, and nothing but lies. That is all you said today, Davy.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:17 pm
hi phony juan, you snooze you lose. Quit playing on the beach then running home to puke several trollmarks and expect to be taken seriously. You verify the fool you are when you say so much that means so little.
tommywantshismommy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:19 pm
This should end well. Our whole financial system will sooner or later collapse and need to be rebuilt from scratch.
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:20 pm
Davy packages everything wrong in America. Hypocrisy, lies, greed, arrogance, immaturity, ignorance, and recently, insanity. His need for attention and, as you said JuanP, the last word, means he will just keep deteriorating until he has a nervous breakdown, heart attack or goes postal.
Late middle age is difficult for some, having to adjust to the fact that their time is drawing to a close and today may be the last day.
Some adjust and can enjoy each day as it comes. Some, like myself, start a different life in a new place and enjoy the challenges and satisfaction gained from the adventure. Some do not and become … Davy.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:25 pm
“If you extremist anti-American Canadians don’t watch what you are doing this activity is going to blow up in your faces.”
I am neither ‘extremist’ nor am I anti-American Davy.
“You can babble all you like but the fact is you are an extremist anti-American and will never change.”
I am neither extremist nor am I anti-American. Your excuses for your continued harassment against me are both blatant outright lies.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:28 pm
ravioli ravioli slaughter the bourgeoisie
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:36 pm
‘Davy packages everything wrong in America. Hypocrisy, lies, greed, arrogance, immaturity, ignorance, and recently, insanity. His need for attention and, as you said JuanP, the last word, means he will just keep deteriorating until he has a nervous breakdown, heart attack or goes postal.”
Come slip slidin, how many times do you say the same thing? You look as bad as phony juan with his puke earlier. You guys try so hard to say nothing. Try debating some of the things I said today. You are just upset because I have succeeded in neutering your extremist message. You would not even be out except your gangbanging buddies are out to protect you.
“Late middle age is difficult for some, having to adjust to the fact that their time is drawing to a close and today may be the last day.”
LMFAO, that a good one slip slidin. It comes from a guy who is always talking about how very long he is going to live because, you know, his family is long lived.