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Page added on July 14, 2015
Never mind Iran. Oil price is going nowhere
Crude oil came under renewed pressure Tuesday as Iran and six world powers announced they had reached a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program. But Citigroup’s head of commodities research played down the impact of Iran’s potential return to the oil market, saying traders shouldn’t expect much net price movement in crude futures.
“In six months we think we’ll be at exactly the same level we’re at now. It’ll maybe go up a bit in the third quarter,” Edward Morse told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at about $53 Tuesday, while international Brent priced near $58.50.
“How far down could it go? We’ll repeat what we’ve said before. If nothing gives, production will have to be shut in through the price mechanism, and it will take $40 or lower WTI to get to that level,” Morse said.
The nuclear agreement reached this week would limit Iran’s nuclear capability and roll back economic sanctions after the country’s leaders come into compliance with the terms of the accord.
Iran could begin putting oil back into the market about two months after the International Atomic Energy Agency certifies Tehran’s nuclear program, Morse said. Iran’s oil minister has said Iran can produce 1 million barrels per day within six months.
“Nobody who looks seriously at that believes either that the market can absorb that amount, or that Iran can produce it,” Morse said. “We’re thinking realistically about three, four or 500,000 barrels a day. Maybe 200[,000] or 300[,000] at the beginning and then growing over the course of 2016. It’s certainly a 2016 event.”
A Reuters poll of 25 oil analysts from leading banks and brokerages forecast Iran would be able to raise crude oil output by 250,000 to 500,000 bpd by the end of this year and by up to 750,000 bpd by mid-2016. The global crude market already has a 2.6 million barrel-per-day surplus.
As for the estimated 40 million barrels of oil sitting off the coast of Iran in tankers, Morse said only about one-third of it will create overhang in oil markets because the majority of it is condensate or condensate-blended crude.
“The condensate can be exported under the sanctions regime,” he said. “So the question is why is it not being exported, and the answer is almost certainly that it is so high in sulfur content that no refiner anywhere in the world wants to take it on, except perhaps at a very steep discount.”
Price action will be determined by a multitude of factors, including U.S. production and world economic growth.
Citi forecasts U.S. production will be flat to slightly negative, but given the recent resumption in drilling, it could rebound, Morse said. After more than seven months of declines, drillers added oil rigs to U.S. fields in the last two weeks.
The bank projects global GDP is currently growing at just 2.6 percent, weighed down by recent developments in China, Morse said.
China’s economic growth in the second quarter is forecast to be the weakest since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. With China’s stock market rout, the weak performance raises pressure on authorities to do more despite little payoff so far from a run of stimulus steps.
The announcement of a deal Tuesday on Iran’s nuclear program worsens the outlook for oil prices, but investors should look to China for the real source of pain, Signal Analytics CEO Stephen Davis said Tuesday.
“People overly focus on supply and demand, and the truth is it’s the global economy that drives the price of oil, and China is a proxy for the global economy,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
According to Signal’s analysis, demand from China has an almost 50 percent correlation to the price of oil.
Most of the news regarding supply has already been priced into oil futures, Davis said. Signal downgraded oil prices in May based on increased OPEC output, which came a time when the global economy had turned south, Davis added.
“It’s a double whammy. It’s not just that supply is moving up way more than it should, but it’s the demand is potentially weaker than people think, so it’s actually the worst of both worlds,” he said.
51 Comments on "Never mind Iran. Oil price is going nowhere"
idontknowmyself on Tue, 14th Jul 2015 9:42 pm
It is not about money and it never was. It was about using synergy to avoid manual labour that is hard and tedious.
It is never mentioned in the media or in any seriously analysis. It is hopeless.
We are now reaching a point where there is less and less energy to keep this complesex system running.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zMOVmGu5qY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqOO4oLyInY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D93PBlwBp8s
idontknowmyself on Tue, 14th Jul 2015 9:48 pm
This video is more detailed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69tpDgKHckY
joe on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 3:34 am
Cant avoid the obvious pitfalls. Its cheap money keeping the drillers going, and its cheap money letting us double down the debt from the last recession and its cheap money push up the strength of the dollar because all the other currencies are in the insane asylum. Eventually its cheap money that will drive consumer debt and another housing bubble and bring the roof down over our heads again. At 0% interest, theres no more ammo in the gun for the next crash, unless you put in credit controls like Greece and China recently had to.
Boat on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 6:03 am
joe,
Do some research. CCC rated junk bonds interest rates have run roughly 8-14% recently. CCC junk bonds are at risk of default. Investors chasing the much higher interest go in with eyes wide open knowing the risk. You have been led down the doomer trail.
shortonoil on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 6:39 am
The price of oil is going down because the ability of oil to power the economy is going down. It is taking more and more energy to produce oil, which leaves less and less for the rest of the economy. We made that point over a year ago, and put up this graph last September:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
As long as dollars are the primary evaluating metric and not energy, analysts will continue to miss the forest for all of the trees. Dollars come from energy, energy doesn’t come from dollars! If the energy is not there to begin with, all the dollars in the world will not create one BTU of it.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
marmico on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 7:16 am
What a crock of shit. The latest call out from the EIA is that the domestic oil industry consumed 3% of distillates.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_821dst_dcu_nus_a.htm
Davy on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 8:15 am
Boat said “Investors chasing the much higher interest go in with eyes wide open knowing the risk. You have been led down the doomer trail.” Can you hear my laughter Boat…hear it…. Eyes wide open that’s funny. They are investing because the central banks got’s their backs. There is no risk when you are given a blank check to go risk on. Further boat this whole energy junk bond scheme has been sold to a wide investor group as part of a diversified portfolio.
Many people share this exposure either directly or indirectly from the knock on effect of such a large segment of the bond market getting hammered. What the hell does that have to do with the “doomer trail”. This is about failed economic policy at every level here and abroad. Look at China and Europe they are going down for the same reasons. Greed in a repressed rigged system that cannot maintain the illusion of wealth IE a bubble deflating. Boat do you know what a Ponzi scheme is?
Davy on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 8:17 am
Poor Mami, Short got’s you by the short and curlies so you throw out a one sentence bullet point with no meaning. What a moron.
BobInget on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 8:45 am
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/07/15/423139506/netanyahu-this-deal-gives-iran-a-path-to-a-nuclear-arsenal
BobInget on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 8:55 am
Saudi Arabia and Israel won’t permit Iran additional revenue (full stop)
Oil exporters, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Mali, continue to be war zones (full stop)
Its not about nuclear weapons, it’s about oil.
BobInget on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 9:35 am
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 10, 2015
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.8 million barrels per day during the week
ending July 10, 2015, 229,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 95.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production
decreased last week, averaging about 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel
production increased slightly last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.4 million barrels per day last week, up by 38,000
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports
averaged over 7.2 million barrels per day, 1.3% below the same four-week period last
year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline
blending components) last week averaged 682,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 146,000 barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 4.3 million barrels from the previous week.
At 461.4 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at
least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels
last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories
decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel
inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average
range for this time of year.
Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.7 million barrels last
week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels per
day, up by 3.6% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline
product supplied averaged 9.6 million barrels per day, up by 6.5% from the same period
last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, down by 2.3% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product suppliedis down 4.7% compared to the same four-week period last year.
BobInget on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 9:48 am
I’m calling this repore mildly bullish;
19.9 Million barrels p/d is 200,000 barrels more then last week’s holiday travel.
inventories decreased more then four million.
EIA still insists on 80 year high as comparison. How many cars were there in 1935 comped to today?
Imports are still high despite humungous inventories. What’s up w/dat?
The important, take home news is consumption. Gasoline up 6.5%
Concerning should be jet fuel in its third week of weakness. kerosene is jet fuel.
GregT on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 10:17 am
Worth repeating:
“As long as dollars are the primary evaluating metric and not energy, analysts will continue to miss the forest for all of the trees. Dollars come from energy, energy doesn’t come from dollars!”
shortonoil on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 10:23 am
“What a crock of shit. The latest call out from the EIA is that the domestic oil industry consumed 3% of distillates.
If you can’t see the problem with that quote you are an absolute mental midget. The petroleum industry uses railroads, roads, the military and almost everything else on the EIA list. They use the oil that provides those goods and services to the petroleum industry. Your trolling is getting more desperate by the day!
rockman on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 10:49 am
Davy – I don’t know that marm is that far off the track as far as the amount of energy used to FIND AND EXTRACT oil/NG. Now if shorty wants to use all the energy inputs used in every aspect of delivering product to the public that’s a different metric. But where do you stop there: do you use the amount of diesel trucks use to haul goods to Walmart that the oil fields hands buy? Do you prorate the amount of energy used to run peakoil.com and add that to the total fuel demand used to refine products? More important; do you use the amount of energy refiners use to convert oil to products? I drill for oil/NG and none of the energy used by the refiners use has any impact on what I decide to drill.
Are more simply if the entire process from well head to gas tank is using more energy than it’s producing then it would seem like the process would have ground to a halt pretty quick. I know to the penny what I spend in fuel to get a well drilled and to keep it producing: I sign every invoice for such consumption. As far as the drilling and production go even that 3% sounds a tad high but I’ll accept it and not try to split hairs. Y’all can debate the other energy aspects of the entire process but when it comes to my end of it the oil patch produces a great deal more energy than it consumes. Again: read my word closely: I’m only talking about the extraction end of the oil patch. Talking about the energy consumption of the “petroleum industry” in general terms just isn’t enough detail IMHO. Breaking it down into the various segments would make the discussion flow more easily.
It really pisses me off when I have to lend support to anything marm says so please stop it. LOL.
beammeup on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 10:59 am
Of course one of the big problems with EROEI is establishing the boundaries for the computation. I’ve always disagreed with the notion that one can restrict this calculation to activities only around the well head. When a town of 10,000 families springs up in the middle of nowhere in N Dakota or the tar sands of Canada, how much energy did that take? What is the ongoing energy cost of supporting 10,000 families and all of the associated lifestyle expectations and infrastructure to support them, all of which could legitimately be assigned to the energy industry?
It seems pretty clear that lower quality oil plays requiring more people, equipment and other infrastructure will have inherently lower EROEI, but it would be nice to see a compact estimate that doesn’t require reading a pay-only 60-page report
marmico on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:05 am
It is probable that by the end of the summer driving season, crude, gasoline, distillate and propane stocks will be at record days of supply.
Crude
Gasoline
Distillate
Propane
Davy on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:18 am
No argument Rock and I agree your comment has merit. It is the way the Marmi presented his data without explanation that I am referencing. Marmi is more interested in being an asshole than making a point like you did above with clarifications. Marmi is an uptight asshole. I am an asshole who loves to call out assholes for their asshole-ness.
marmico on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:27 am
When a town of 10,000 families springs up in the middle of nowhere in N Dakota or the tar sands of Canada, how much energy did that take?
It’s included in the construction category of distillate consumption. The U.S. population is increasing by ~2.5 million people per year. An increase of 10,000 people in a ND town is a two decimal point rounding error.
BC on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:28 am
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f6c481b6156842f59a269bab9c763650
Gents, the US industrial sector stalled with the crash in the price of oil last fall and the incipient bust in the shale and energy-related transport sectors.
Cyclical metrics I use going back to 1919 indicate that the US mfg. sector is exhibiting a characteristically recessionary trajectory YTD.
A caveat applies in that the longer cycle has persisted at the slowest rate since the 1930s, not surprisingly, aligning rather closely with the period during the late 1930s.
The industrial sector historically leads the rest of the economy by a quarter or two, so be advised.
marmico on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:38 am
Fuck off Doomer Davy. You are an innumerate word salad prattle asshole.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:39 am
rockman — Great question — where DO you stop when tracking the amount of energy used to extract and deliver energy to the end consumer? The “rules” on how to do that and where to draw the line obviously don’t exist, not in a commonly accepted form, anyway.
Not being a scientist, or a geologist, or an oil business expert, I have to look at it from an angle that makes sense to me.
I look at the graph that shows the historical trend of economic growth and contraction and how that line on the graph correlates to energy production. I find that the two are very closely correlated.
Then I look at our current global economic situation and attempt to reconcile the obvious rapidly deteriorating global economy to the record-setting “barrel of oil” production count. Something doesn’t add up.
Then I look at the massive debt that the global economy has incurred — debt that is growing exponentially day by day. And I look at the shale production companies’ debt accumulation and ask myself, how is it that they keep accruing massive debt when they are producing so much “oil”?
In the end, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist or an Einstein-level mathematician to compute the realization that energy available to the economy is shrinking, despite record oil production.
It just makes total logical sense to me that on average, oil production is consuming more and more energy to deliver less and less to the end users. That’s why I don’t question shortonoil’s math, or premise.
Moronic nitpickers like marmico may like to focus all their attention on minor glitches and jump up and down screaming loudly when they see a minor mistake, but that’s because morons like marmico are attempting to distract from and obscure the really obvious reality.
Which is, energy delivered to the global economy is shrinking despite record oil production.
Nony on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:44 am
Rock is right (that Marmie is right).
Energy usage is a big deal at refineries just because “everything is” at a refinery (it’s a margin business). It’s a metric that is looked at when comparing refineries to each other or evaluating performance of a management team (but just one…capital efficiency, maintenance, uptime, etc. are all important also. But it’s in the mix and watched to economize it.)
Use of natural gas (methane) is common in the sector (IOW, more is piped in than out). Also electricity is needed…a few sites have cogen plants (powered by gas or even coal), but many just use the grid…although they can make special purchase arrangements with the utility. To the extent that you use methane, that is obviously not coming from the barrel and in the US is pretty darned cheap. Electricity is also generally not produced from the barrel and comes from coal, nuclear, hydro, gas, etc.
Note that lighter, sweeter crudes typically take less energy to refine than heavier grades. Just as a process…not even counting the capital equipment differences. So, people calling 40-50 API oil “cat piss” should consider this. Such oil needs less downstream processing (crackers and cokers cost money to operate as well as to build) and have WAY less sulfur to remove in the desulfurizers.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:52 am
Nony — How do you explain shale extraction industry accumulated debt and need for constant infusions of cash, despite such magnificent production numbers?
If the shale industry was delivering net energy to the economy, don’t you think they’d be making money instead of burning through it as fast as they get it?
Nony on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:54 am
Oh….and note that there really I no reason to calculate EROI and bunch your head up about it. At the end of the day, it’s almost communistic–not saying that to fire people up, but think about it.
In the free market, people make decisions based on price feedback. If you have methane in excess and it is cheaper to flare it than transport it, you flare it. And visa versa. You don’t optimize the $ROI.
Trying to calculate EROI with a spreadsheet or a study or the like is at the end like being a communist bureaucrat puzzling his head about how much of different sectors he should order to produce…since everything feeds into other products. Wood, metal, valves, etc. etc.
I highly recommend to read the story, I Pencil, and think about how complicated a simple wood pencil is and all the different industries involved behind it…and yet how they come together to make a very cheap (cost wise) object with huge utility. And they don’t even know about each other. And no one ever has to calculate how it all happens…because the free market just moves goods to whoever buys them.
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/I,_Pencil
Nony on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 11:56 am
Mis-type:
“You don’t optimize “EROI”, you optimize $ROI.”
Nony on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 12:00 pm
NWR:
Shale was getting all that debt because they were growing 30% per year. You can’t grow a business 30% per year based on earnings (if the margin is less than 30%). It’s just impossible. At $100/bbl, there were a lot of profitable opportunities out there.
And shale drillers are not irrational. If they were, they would have continued drilling at the same pace when prices dropped to 60. But they didn’t. They cut capital expenditures by 50% very quickly. A massive reduction in the service industry with lots of layoffs and stacked rigs (capital equipment sitting idle).
Please watch this video from minutes 22 to 30.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?325957-1/discussion-future-us-fracking
Northwest Resident on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 12:04 pm
Nony — You’re a lone voice in the wilderness touting the financial profitability and net energy gain from shale production. Didn’t you read that New York Times article that exposed “insider” email communications from finance and engineering, clearly expressing their concerns that shale oil production is money losing and negative energy gain operation? I could find that link for you if you want. You do a great job of talking up shale extraction, but you are missing the really big picture.
Nony on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 12:22 pm
NWR, shale gas has exploded to being 40% of total production (and total production itself has gone up 20%) and done this while price has pretty much crashed. Yes, there will be some companies that made bad bets…but the overall shale gas has proved incredibly sustainable and basically has been putting conventional gas (e.g. Rockman drilling shallow water GOM gas wells) out of business.
It’s just been going on way too long to call it a bubble. If you really think it is a bubble, go long on natural gas futures or better yet, invest in shallow water GOM drilling and leases! You are going to lose your shirt though…
The Rogers/Berman/Hughes naysaying about shale gas from 5 years ago or so has basically gotten THRASHED by the real world events. If you don’t face that, you’re just not a curious open thinker. Instead someone who looks for whatever fits his views and ignores the converse.
P.s. And I AM open to things that hurt the cornie viewpoint. You can look back on this site when oil was 100+ and Rock mentioned it and I always said it was a great point and spoke to a “scarcity premium” or PO-lite or PO Dynamic or whatever you want to call it.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 12:26 pm
Nony — I admire your tenacity in hanging on tightly to the illusion of “all is well”. If anybody can methodically explain away all the elephants lurking in the room, it is YOU!
Nony on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 12:30 pm
NWR,
Also…I’m not a lone voice. It just seems that way because you hang on this site. But the MSM (even the left leaning part) has pretty much declared PO “dead”. And many PO websites have died, traffic is down, etc. The general consensus is that even the more temperate and analytical peakers (TOD, Staniford, Rune, etc.) were lightweights and off to the side and biased and not proven out. The hard core doomers are pretty much ignored except for some interest in the neo-70s grow your own veggies stuff ( and even that, there is more interest in urban and suburban settings).
Nony on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 12:30 pm
NWR,
I admire you for being a corpsman.
apneaman on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 12:34 pm
Iran nuclear deal likely to pull down oil prices long term
Analysts say it will take until at least 2016 for Iranian oil production to bring down prices
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/iran-nuclear-deal-likely-to-pull-down-oil-prices-long-term-1.3151070
Marty on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 1:06 pm
Actually, if you burn PAPER dollars that would result in a BTU conversion.
marmico on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 1:10 pm
The petroleum industry uses railroads, roads, the military and almost everything else on the EIA list.
So U.S. domestic oil producers increased production by 50% between 2008 and 2013. I certainly would expect that more oil would be consumed in domestic transportation to the refinery. It’s called midstream – pipes, trucks, rail, tugs/barges, etc. But against that back drop you must subtract the consumption of the foregone imported oil.
There is no material change at the refinery or the downstream transportation points to end consumers.
You are a buffoon, quart shy of oil.
BC on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 1:28 pm
Gents, a bit of oil trivia:
US “oil” production is at the fastest 5-year rate since 1927 and 1938, and at the fastest 9-year rate since 1930 and 1942. These dates are not a coincidence given where we are in the Long Wave progression to date.
However, US “oil” production per capita is at the level of the late 1940s and ~40-45% below the 1970 peak. The shale boom/bubble is nary a blip for the long-term US depletion regime.
In fact, at the log-linear trend rate of US “oil” depletion per capita since 1970, the US will achieve the ominous 50% decline per capita by no later than 2020-22.
Historically, the 9- to 10-year average rate of real GDP per capita has been ~0% to slightly negative with the constant-US$ price of oil above $40. Since 2007, US real final sales/GDP per capita has decelerated from the long-term 2-2.25% to ~0%.
At $50-$55 oil, the supply-demand/cost curves imply production of no more than 5.5-6Mbd. The additional 3-3.5Mbd of incremental shale extraction/supply since 2008-09 against the depletion regime’s curve is increasingly being consumed by the energy and energy-related transport sectors to unprofitably extract the costlier, lower-quality crude substitutes. This is part of the story (another way of describing) shortonoil has been relating.
In this context, the implication is US “oil” production will soon commence another cyclical decline to continue the long-term depletion regime per capita to average production of ~8-8.5Mbd by late decade to the early 2020s (absent war with China).
This suggests the average price of WTI trending below $40 during the period.
This will likely coincide with growth of global real GDP per capita decelerating to slightly below 1% since 2007-08 to 0% during the period, i.e. LTG.
Cheers.
Boat on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 2:19 pm
But but what about nat gas and CHP making refiners much more efficient and able to deliver more product per barrell. Yep folks since the low price of nat gas, we can import oil, refine and sell petroleum products cheaper than those countries who dont have nat gas. This information has been posted several times but we seem to have a doomer/oil decline forgetfulness thing going on.
joe on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 2:35 pm
Good hypothesis, extrapolation of a theoretical curve is the hard bit. The hubbert curve is deceptive as its always shown as a nice neat peaked curve, but 1950-2050 are within 2 columns on the ‘peak oil’ curve drawn by Hubbert. Take that curve, and draw it properly and it appears much flatter, then include whatever probability distributions you like for each point then regraph it to include price and globalised outlook, then its almost impossible to predict ‘peak oil’ because we just wont see coming in enough time. Global Warming they can take ‘seriously’ because they can ‘do’ something. Try and tell them that their efforts will yield only thermodynamically correct results based on entropy and resource depleteion then they dnt like tat ‘negativity’. People don’t like to feel that they don’t have control.
Boat on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 2:36 pm
BC,… In fact, at the log-linear trend rate of US “oil” depletion per capita since 1970, the US will achieve the ominous 50% decline per capita by no later than 2020-22.
How many mpg is that. Did you factor in Hawaii going from oil to solar?
Northwest Resident on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 2:46 pm
Nony — No, you’re not a lone voice in denying reality. You are joined by countless others who are exposed to the facts and logic daily, yet choose to focus your energy into maintaining your state of denial instead of confronting the truth.
Claiming MSM backs up your denial of Peak Oil? Pretty lame. I’ve seen articles in Forbes and other “MSM” channels that directly address Peak Oil issues and recognize that we have a big problem. But yes, in general, MSM is dedicated to propagating the illusion of all is well and telling whatever lies and distorting whatever facts are required to keep people unaware. Their strategy seems to be working very well on you.
PO websites have died? Traffic is down on PO sites? Big deal. I spend zero time searching for PO sites, but I’m a total believer. Everybody who is smart and aware has already recognized that Peak Oil is here or very near. What is left to search for, what is left to debate? Only deniers like you are motivated to constantly spend time trying to hash out the question of whether or not Peak Oil will occur, and when. To all other informed and aware people, the question is already settled.
Nony, WHAT motivates you and guys like Boat to constantly come to this website/forum and daily dispute Peak Oil? What do you have to prove? Who are you trying to convince? Just the fact that you are here daily (and can’t stay away no matter how many times you try to quit) disputing Peak Oil and consequences of Peak Oil is PROOF that you are utterly conflicted. If Peak Oil will never happen, if all is well for now and forever, if doomers are delusional losers — then WHY are you compelled to hang out with us and argue all day? Why not just go on your happy way and leave us loonies alone? Answer: You and Boat and others like you are compelled to do so by your need to disprove your own worst fears. You KNOW the truth, you just can’t handle it, you can’t face it. So you use this forum to argue against that which deep down inside you already know is true.
Very conflicted, Nony. Smart, but oblivious to the big picture. I hope you will get a grip on reality before it is too late.
Davy on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 2:50 pm
NOo and the Boat, hey, NR just kicked you in the nuts. How does it feel? I love when a doomer delivers the knockout punch to goofy cornies.
Boat on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 2:52 pm
Northwest Resident… Didn’t you read that New York Times article that exposed “insider” email communications from finance and engineering, clearly expressing their concerns that shale oil production is money losing and negative energy gain operation?…………………..Get that link please. Can’t imagine an entire industry just losing money because the fed has their back, there has to be a better reason. I got it, it’s fun to work outside and almost everybody gets to ride in a pickup. If your rig catches fire you can be on tv etc
Northwest Resident on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 3:05 pm
Boat — Here you go:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/us/natural-gas-drilling-down-documents-4-intro.html?_r=0
All joking aside, fact is, the “shale miracle” was a financial play, a majestic public relations scam, a high powered project designed with only one goal in mind — extend and pretend! It was a jobs program, a driver of GDP and a fabulous retirement party for the oil industry. But a viable, self-sustaining net energy producer? Not even close.
Boat on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 3:17 pm
NWR ,Davy…
My balls are intact thank you Lol.
First of all I enjoy debate. But a good debater has to know many sides of an issue.
Second I love the topic of energy because everything depends on it. Oil is a big part of energy.
Third I get a kick out of the total misrepresentation and twisting of my words.
Example: Nony, WHAT motivates you and guys like Boat to constantly come to this website/forum and daily dispute Peak Oil?
My timing is 20-25 years off in the future and the decline will probably be because of the electric car and the nat gas car. I really don’t know or claim to know. I just see no near term problem. Unless of war, asteroid etc. major unforeseen event.
When NWR says:Just the fact that you are here daily (and can’t stay away no matter how many times you try to quit) disputing Peak Oil and consequences of Peak Oil is PROOF that you are utterly conflicted….. I don’t feel conflicted, in fact I enjoy reading about energy and opinions about it. I also spend a lot of time not on the web site but reading many others to stay current. It’s many of my reports you don’t like. For me it’s not an ideology, just a constant search for new information.
Why not just go on your happy way and leave us loonies alone? Answer: You and Boat and others like you are compelled to do so by your need to disprove your own worst fears. You KNOW the truth, you just can’t handle it, you can’t face it. So you use this forum to argue against that which deep down inside you already know is true.
I have no fears, except death but it won’t chase me away from a good cigar. You been watching to much Springer. To much drama. You sound like a writer for a b rated movie. You a tabloid writer?
Davy on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 3:45 pm
People like drama Boat but instead of real drama like us doomers talk about you guys like Hollywood. So much more predictable huh Boat. Us doomers feel like the end of the world as we know it is worthy of drama. Boat, you will need some Dramamine went the shit starts to hit the fan. Enjoy that cigar like it is your last!
MSN Fanboy on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 5:33 pm
LOL, FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT.
Meanwhile in other news, Global Warming will fuck us all over, peak oil or not 🙂
Dredd on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 5:55 pm
“Oil price is going nowhere” – CNBC
“Oil is the lifeblood of the American Economy” – Dept. of Commerce
On The Origin of Unnatural Selection
Makati1 on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 9:17 pm
When you go to your gas station and it, and all other gas stations, is closed, permanently, you will know the Age of Petroleum is over. Until then, it is all a debating exercise.
Boat on Thu, 16th Jul 2015 3:01 am
It may take 15-20 years but investing in gas stations will be like investing in phone booths now.
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