Despite the meltdown in the oil market, prices are more likely to rise than to fall further because of geopolitical instability, an industry consultant told CNBC on Thursday.
“Iraq, Iran, [and] Libya, history tells us that those don’t get solved very quickly or very easily. I don’t see downward pressure from them coming back on online. I probably see more upward pressure from disruptions going on in that area,” Carl Larry, director of oil and gas business development at Frost & Sullivan, said on “Squawk Box“.
Larry’s comments were in contrast to what Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson told CNBC in a separate interview that aired Thursday.
Tillerson said more oil supply could come to the already bloated crude market if things were to calm down in hot spots like Libya or Iraq.
As for U.S. production, Larry predicted, “Oil production in America [will] stay where it’s at. We won’t see that exponential growth that we’ve seen over the past few years.”
But Tillerson said the crude market has been surprised by how robust American production has been year after year. “There’s another million-plus barrels coming out of North America.”
Plantagenet on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 12:12 pm
The robust production from US shales caught everyone by surprise. Dr. David Hughes and the ninnies at the post-carbon institute and their predictions that shale oil production would collapse in a year or two have now been proven to be wrong—the result is a global oil glut that is showing no sign of an near term end.
BobInget on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 12:19 pm
Before inventions of modern computers,
post US peak oil, it was cheaper to shlep oil from foreign lands.
Now, we are witness to an East/West
split ostensibly based on religious differences.
New Oil Wealth has devastating effects on societies, where ever it lands. Iraq, Iran,
Venezuela (Rex doesn’t mention, I do),
bombs flying in every direction Libya,
War torn Yemen, Nigeria and South Sudan and Mali and (Algeria OPEC members) also escape Rex’s notice.
SA Catholic nations
Venezuelan and Ecuador have problems of their own related to lower oil prices.
Tillerson’s company, ‘XOM’ is nothing less then USA’s shadow government. When Rex
makes statements like “oil will remain ‘cheap’ ($55 or under) for (5) years, so called ‘investors’ listen up.
Do your homework. Look up (for yourselves)
exactly where XOM sources crude outside N. America.
Rex Tillerson is afraid. He knows. The longer this so called ‘glut’ farce continues, the greater shortages, repercussions, result.
Exxon can call shots up to a point. Today he tells us ‘if’ everything gets peaceful
in the ME oil will remain affordable. It’s the Biggest “if” ever faced by Exxon/Mobile.
Finally, it is always about oil.
America is once again being primed for war.
Oil shortages, higher prices, will be the final
casus belli.
apneaman on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 12:36 pm
Lil Planter got all giddy after watching his hero Rex Swindleson.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 12:51 pm
“…predictions that shale oil production would collapse in a year or two have now been proven to be wrong..”
How could they possibly have foreseen the financial fraud, massive and excessive levels of debt creation and all the other financial/economic dysfunctionality that enabled shale oil to keep going? Answer: They couldn’t, nobody could.
Trying to crow about how the shale oil revolution is much more “successful” than doubters originally predicted is a fool’s role.
dave thompson on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 1:29 pm
The shale boom started out as a bust from day one. The money invested for drilling, extraction and refining will never be paid back.
BobInget on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 2:55 pm
If “storage’ is such a problem, why are we importing crude oil and finished product at all? Why don’t we support North American
oil companies, jobs?
(because we require Six million B p/d just to
keep up. Seven million is better to keep up this “Glut Illusion”*).
Refineries and speculators are ordering that extra million B P/D because it’s being sold Under cost of production.
This entire glut fiction will end as suddenly as it started were US/ME imports to suddenly end.
*Nigeria and South Sudan and Libya are exporting zilch. Venezuela and Mexico’s
exports are down, In OPEC only UAE and KSA’s exports have grown.
Over three thousand Iraqis died so far THIS year. That’s NOT including IS occupied regions. All so we can drive our Explorers on the cheap.
If we are going to war for Rex Tillison, he should go on CNBC and beg Americans to
send their kids to save his companies oil.
As if.
You will never hear President O or ANY
politician admit why we take such special interests in oil exporting nations. Why, if we are sloshing around in oil do we need to send another drone or “Military Advisors”
to Syria and Iraq?
The decent thing to do would at least level
with the American people
Plantagenet on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 2:59 pm
@Nordent
You missed the point.
Oil production from shale has reached millions of bbls per day. It didn’t collapse after a year or two. Now its even caused an oil glut.
The predictions that shale oil production would dry up after a year or two were wrong. Period.
GregT on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 3:16 pm
It is you that continues to miss the point lil planter.
The fact that you are incapable of rational thought has become very tiring for those of us trying to explain things to you.
Your continued ignorance does nothing more than to make yourself look like a complete fool.
BobInget on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 3:24 pm
In one sense HRH, predictions were not mistaken.
Shale requires constant drilling just to keep Red Queen fed. Slowing new drilling builds on itself. The longer this glut con goes on the greater the shortages resulting.
HRH sticks to the fiction the world is oversupplied. It is not. Brent, for instance is selling for ten bucks more then NYMEX.
$60.61 vs $50.96 closing 3/5/15.
Because UAE and KSA keep larding on oil into North America guys like HRH can keep up the lie that shale is the problem..
Ignore Syria, Ignore Iraq, Ignore Venezuela,
ignore Mexico, best of all, ignore Libya where this entire mess began.
How will Venezuela, Ecuador, Nigeria,
Angola, ignore China’s loan servicing?
If you are still here, read this…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-04/venezuela-selloff-worsens-as-u-s-oil-exports-sink-andes-credit
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 3:29 pm
planet — I didn’t miss that point. If only you were more intelligent and had better reading comprehension, you would correctly deduce that I accept that the predictions were wrong, but MY point is that they were wrong because nobody could have known the extent to which economic and financial fundamentals would be subverted and perverted to keep the uneconomical shale oil plays going.
Now do you get it?
Cheers!
BobInget on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 8:15 pm
I’m tired of reading personal attacks.
Some posters can’t come up with factual arguments, school-yard insults teach us nothing.
Everyone is entitled to opinions —
but not their own set of facts.
I invite contradictory evidential criticism.
Instead of repeating the same worn-out
platitudes, attack premise. Back up your argument with actual news, not opinions.
We really are living in the most interesting
of times.
GregT on Thu, 5th Mar 2015 9:31 pm
Bob,
The contradictory evidence has been presented ad nauseum. Some of us are way beyond any attempts at having a rational discussion with this guy anymore. Everyone should be well aware of the planter’s stance here, the planter refuses to contemplate any other views, and continually acts in a trollish manner while playing childish games with other peoples’ intellects.
I still haven’t personally figured out whether the guy is merely a simple person with limited intelligence, or a garden variety troll. At this point it really doesn’t matter to me anymore, I have had enough of his immaturity, and his annoying demeanour.
If any of us had all of the answers, we wouldn’t be spending our time here discussing these issues. Some things are obvious, some things are not. Debate is always good. Attempting to debate with irrational people, is a complete waste of time.
Kenz300 on Fri, 6th Mar 2015 11:06 am
No more wars for oil……..
It is time to transition away from fossil fuels and stop sending money to people that want to do us harm…….
The sooner the world moves to safer, cleaner and cheaper alternative energy sources the better.
Wind, solar, wave energy, geothermal and second generation biofuels made from algae, cellulose and waste are the future.
Bring on the electric, flex-fuel and biofuel fueled vehicles.