Higher Oil Prices Are Coming, But Not Just Yet

37 Comments on "Higher Oil Prices Are Coming, But Not Just Yet"

onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 12:33 pm 



yes I find what is now on the horizon maybe higher prices for the American consumer/driver. How long can US afford to be just a prodigious and prolific user of oil especially the masses with all their driving. I would think not much longer.

Newfie on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 1:39 pm 



The Second Coming will happen before The Recovery. (snicker)

BC on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:23 pm 



https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2ah9

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2ahb

Our booming “recovery” in the US has us increasing spending for gasoline and energy per capita like it’s . . . 2008 . . . and 2000-01.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2ahi

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2ahi

And who knows but that might be because the acceleration of “money” (lending, investment, revenues, profits, and wages) velocity is contracting at a rate last witnessed in 2008, 2001, and the early 1980s. Coincidence? Yeah, sure.

Who coulda knowed it?!

Gimmie some MOAR of that “cheap” (but not for the capacity of the economy to grow) oil and gasoline, dudes!!!

If you’re looking forward to another deflationary global recession and bear market, then it’s lookin’ good!!! 😀 🙁

idontknowmyself on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:28 pm 



Judging by what is happening in my neighborhood : people not working, car always in the driveway and only moving when going out for groceries, sister and brother living together in the same house and house for sale for more then a year.

Oil cannot go much more higher without crashing the banks and creating more employment. High oil price will mean higher unemployment and banks bankruptcies .

Davy on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:48 pm 



IDONT, around here in central Missouri. We have a combination of people very busy and those who have no work. Cattle farming and associated businesses have been good. The university in Rolla, MO is booming. New health care facilities have been built. You also have the hardcore unemployed uneducated people that can’t keep a job, don’t want to work and or can’t find factory work. I actually find it difficult to find reliable laborers for $15 an hour cash. If I find someone good they are in high demand. I avoid the dregs because they cost you money by doing poor work or breaking things. My best workers are older guys who are retired and like doing some work on the side.

BC on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 5:18 pm 



@Davy: The university in Rolla, MO is booming. New health care facilities have been built.

These increasingly financialized sectors are now a net cost to the rest of the economy, including gov’t and financial services (FIRE = finance, insurance, and unreal estate), exacerbating the pernicious effects of inequality, as total net annual flows to these sectors now absorb total annual GDP output in perpetuity.

So, whenever you see a new medical or university facility being built, grab your wallet and despair, as the costs will hereafter preclude growth or sustained current activity elsewhere.

“Health” care is making the US economy gravely ill to the benefit of the top 0.001-1% (and indirectly the next 5-9% . . . for now).

Davy on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 5:24 pm 



Yeap, BC, but locally it matters. You are spot on with the big picture. I am talking about the little guys who have work locally here when big money pours in. The plumbers, electricians, and all the support people. The overall U.S. economy is being weighted down by these unnecessary investments. But this development has a huge impact on our area with such a small population.

I often wonder about all these expensive university and medical buildings. They have no future and will never be paid for. I also wonder about all those building built today without windows that open for ventilation in the summer. How about those brown outs and no a/c.

BC on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 5:43 pm 



Davy, yes, good points. I know, and have met over the years, the kind of skilled types you mention who live feast to famine over the cycle, with many coming from as far away as the Midwest, eastern and southern Oregon and Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and NorCal to grab the empire’s coin while it’s being paid.

One guy I know in his late 50s travels in an RV pulling a trailer with his tools, staying at the households of family and friends he’s met over 30+ years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iwC2QljLn4

He has Motorhead stickers on his RV and trailer and enjoys for recreation his Wild Turkey, Maker’s Mark, and the occasional poker game, his favorite card being, what else, but the ace of spades. 😀

GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 6:35 pm 



They just built a new toll bridge in Vancouver BC, at a cost of 2.5 billion dollars. With some 150,000 vehicle crossings per day, they expect the bridge to be paid off by 2050.

Seems perfectly logical to me. 🙂

apneaman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 6:53 pm 



Greg, the other newer toll bridge, the Golden ears bridge is hardly used although it is a big time saver. So many people do not want to pay the tolls that they have been avoiding them and taking alternate routes/bridges, like the Pattullo Bridge. All it did was cause it to become even more beat up and now they have to shut it down for band-aid repairs and it will need replacing soon. Once again the apes vote with their wallets in the short term. Thousands of well paid degreeded gov managment folks never foresaw this?

Pattullo Bridge to be closed to all traffic from October 16 to 18

“Other extensive bridge deck repairs are planned for 2016 as part of TransLink’s plan to ensure the bridge meets bare minimum short-term structural integrity requirements – until a new crossing is built to replace it.”

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/10/pattullo-bridge-to-be-closed-to-all-traffic-from-october-16-to-18/

shortonoil on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 6:53 pm 



It may be a couple more years before it becomes generally known that oil prices can never again rise far enough to cover its full life cycle production cost:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

Most just don’t have the skills to understand the thermodynamics behind it. Most pray to the supply/ demand deity, and believe that it is a truth that has been cast down from on high. But even they will eventually come to the conclusion that the crops are dying in the fields, the rats are eating the grain and the infidels have come over the wall. At that point their silence will become deafening.

GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 7:03 pm 



The Pattullo can never be widened Apnea, cause there isn’t anywhere for the extra traffic to go. Another fine example of extremely poor planning. How’s about this for solving the lower mainland traffic woes; Let’s just bring another 100,000 more people or so to the region every year. Yup, that’ll solve everything!

Glad I got out when I did, even though my old house probably already went up another 50 grand or so. The lower mainland is way out of control.

BobInget on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 7:37 pm 



Shortonoil needs to get out more.
I’ll offer a single sentence in evidence.

“With some 150,000 vehicle crossings per day, they expect the bridge to be paid off by 2050”.

makati1 on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 7:51 pm 



Well, yes, oil will go up in price, but maybe pennies/bbl. So the headline is not a lie. The implication is that it will go back to the good-old-days of profitability. That is the lie.

apneaman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 8:47 pm 



Bob

“With some 150,000 vehicle crossings per day, they expect the bridge to be paid off by 2050”.

This quote disproves depletion? Sure Bob, because people are so smart and well informed they would never drive if they thought peak oil was coming. They would all prep. I bet ya only a couple of hundred of those people have even heard of peak oil. Like Nony, reality for you is a popularity contest. Bha bha bha bha.

antaris on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 10:50 pm 



Well Ap and Greg, I live 3/4 of a mile from the north end of the pattullo. I can see the schools here getting empty because housing is over the top expensive. Growth comes from immagrants and either they are old Asian or younger Indo. Maybe they will pay the debt or maybe the whole thing goes into default. Hopefully I will be off living in the sticks when things get ugly here.

apneaman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 11:01 pm 



antaris, I once lived on 1st and 11th ave. Good luck. Better to sell while you still can IMO. Also better to integrate with the new community before things get real shitty.

antaris on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 11:32 pm 



Working on the wife, but unfortunately if it gets shitty their is no easy or fast way out of here.

GregT on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 12:15 am 



antaris,

Two questions for you, if you don’t mind me asking. How long have you lived in the GVRD, and how old are you?

antaris on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:08 am 



Born in North Van 1961

GregT on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:19 am 



Ottawa, 1961. Moved to the lower mainland in 1965.

Unfortunately can’t chat more right now. I’ve got an early rise in the morning and a fairly long drive ahead. Catch up later.

MrNoItAll on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:33 am 



How about just tell it like it is? Major shit is coming, but not just yet!

That’s a damn shame too. Here I am in an awesome job with a world leading company, raking in the fat salary and big bonuses, enjoying thoroughly my status of key player in support of a major financial concern. I work with a lot of people who are MBAs, PHDs, among the very best in their fields. Great people. Great times. But I know it is all going to hit a serious downturn soon enough, and I wonder what will happen to all these highly skilled, dynamic and hard working people when the shit hits the fan. Hey, maybe we’ll get to ride BAU for another year or two before it implodes — wouldn’t that be nice? Don’t count on it…

makati1 on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 5:10 am 



MrNo, I’m sure you are moving out of debt and preparing for what you correctly assume is coming. What will all of those people do that are employed with you? If I read the signs, they will be among the many millions that will not make it through the first year. I hope you fare better. It will not be easy.

Two years? We can only hope. But I too see next year as a definite bottleneck. How many more rabbits are in the magician’s hat? We shall see.

Davy on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 6:05 am 



MR, any luck proselytizing doom n prep to the MBA & PHD unknowing sheeples?

shortonoil on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 7:15 am 



“With some 150,000 vehicle crossings per day, they expect the bridge to be paid off by 2050”.

How much of a toll are they planning on charging for horses, and ox carts?

GregT on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:38 am 



“How much of a toll are they planning on charging for horses, and ox carts?”

Or pedestrians? That was exactly my point.

MrNoItAll on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 10:56 am 



makati1 — Other than my house payment, I’ve been out of debt for a number of years. And you know from reading this forum daily that I’ve made my preparations the best I can. I’m ready! Very few people in America have the will, the physical stamina, the awareness OR the resources to prepare as well as I have, and even my preps are no guarantee of anything. Definite bottleneck approaching. I see a future with infinite unknowns and thick clouds of black swans circling like buzzards over high-tech human civilization, just waiting for the death twitches to cease before they swoop in and feast. It’s going to be a gory sight when that happens.

MrNoItAll on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 11:07 am 



Davy — In my line of work, where sky high asset prices and soaring stock market are the drivers of all profits and the source of all optimism about the future, talking directly about peak oil or financial bubbles tends to be an unstated “no-no”. I did have a chance to talk to one PHD dude at a business dinner for quite a while a few months ago, and during that dinner someone else at the table mentioned the problems EU is having with Greece. That opened the door for a discussion with the PHD dude about global financial issues/realities, and gave me a chance to insert the “possibility” of peak oil into the conversation. I can tell you without doubt that I read the worry and deep concern on this guy’s face, but I knew he couldn’t talk about it — that we couldn’t talk about it. He did seem very aware that something was really wrong. In another instance on another business trip, I had a chance to talk in private with a sales exec for one company. He wanted to know all about my backyard farming project, and then opened up about the fact that he and his wife are “self sufficient” on their boat — solar fresh water maker, knowing a number of fishing spots off the coast where he can pretty much guarantee a regular catch, the fact that he is putting big planter pots on his boat for growing veggies, etc… We never got directly to the point of financial collapse in our conversation, but I could tell — and he could tell — that we were in fact talking about being prepared for just that scenario. Some of my closest co-workers who spied on me and busted me for posting on this blog under a different handle all seem to be growing increasingly aware of the dire straights the economy is in, which I gather from comments and reactions to some of my subtle comments. But directly discussing TEOTWAWKI? In my biz, that is no allowed!

BobInget on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 12:10 pm 



Once again everyone here ignores a billion dollars daily being sucked up for ‘protection’
of foreign oil supplies. Nothing wastes oil like militaries ‘bleeding’ their patient expecting cures but always getting negative outcomes.

Tagging most if not all African and Mideast conflicts “Oil Wars” is not hyperbole.

At this very moment over forty nations on four continents are fighting unadvertised oil wars.
Headline after headline threatening world war.

Few here feel prepared to address these conflicts, I understand. All I ask, ‘follow the money’. For instance.

Do you believe the called Islamic State evolved
for the propose of spreading the word of Mohammad or cornering crude oil ? IS is not partially funded by oil it’s 98% dependent on oil. Both the US and Russia know exactly where in Syria IS gets 46 thousand barrels p/d to finance their movement. I ask you, drones, missiles, fighter bombers in the air constantly, IS oil fields remain untouched.

Who buys this oil? How does it get transported safely through a half dozen different ‘enemy’ lines?

If Iraq and Iran are at war as everyone now admits, why don’t they bust-up each other’s oil fields, even pipelines? Block sea lanes?

In Yemen, a pure microcosm ‘oil war’. US drones managed to kill INDIVIDUAL al Qaeda operatives only after they captured rebel held oil fields. Oil INFRASTRUCTURE still intact.
Fact: Nearly a million children will starve to death in Yemen this winter.
Fact: Oil wells and delivery systems are safe.
Fact: US supplies Saudi led coalition bombers
in air refueling 24/7.

In Nigeria, a terrorist group known as Boko Haram linked up with ISIL. US recently sent additional troops into Nigeria and Cameroon
to protect ‘our’ interests, AKA oil. Thirty Nigerians, on average, are getting killed each day.

Venezuela recently sent Cuban troops to directly confront Saudi Arabian hirelings in Syria. Roll that one around beneath the roof of your mouth for a bit, tastes oily? No wonder.

Well gang, this coming Wednesday OPEC plus eight other producing nations meet in Vienna.

On one side we have the USA, Saudi Arabia plus all the other Royal Gulf States.
On the other, everyone else.

I’ve predicted a coup d’tat with Russia, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela in the lead. I could be wrong. Diplomacy could prevail. Judging by hard feelings prevailing, it’s doubtful.

BobInget on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 12:33 pm 



Iran Boosts Syrian Troop Numbers

17 October 2015

By INU staff

INU – It was reported this week that Iran was ramping up its numbers of fighters in the Syrian Civil War, and also that it appeared to be staging them for a major assault on the heavily contested city of Aleppo. On Friday, it was reported that early maneuvers in that offensive had begun, leading to significant gains south of the city for the Syrian military, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Hezbollah.

The Age detailed these gains and their overall context, noting that the escalation of Iranian power, backed by Russian airpower, seemed poised to further shore up the regime of Bashar al-Assad. That regime had already been brought back from the brink of collapse by Iranian and Russian logistical and financial support in the early days of the more than four-year-long Syrian Civil War. Now the expansion of foreign support for the regime promises to further extend the conflict.

In its coverage of recent developments, The Age also pointed out that this enhanced strength of the Assad regime and its allies promises to strengthen their hold over Damascus regardless of what happens in the east of the country, where the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is operating most heavily. In fact, by some accounts the Russian airstrikes, which have mainly targeted more moderate rebel groups, gave ISIL an opportunity to tighten its hold over its own territory.

These recent developments therefore raise the possibility that in absence of more aggressive Western intervention in the conflict, the moderate rebels will be defeated or driven further underground, leaving the civil war as a contest mostly between Assad’s loyalists and the Islamic State.

Thus far, the Obama administration has maintained that a political solution to the crisis must include Assad stepping down as president. But the White House has also welcomed the prospect of discussing such a political solution with Assad’s main backers in Moscow and Tehran. The Iranians, meanwhile, have flatly rejected the notion of Assad’s ouster. His continued rule is key to Iranian strategy in the broader Middle East. And the same is true, albeit to a lesser extent, of Russia.

The Aleppo offensive represents not only an increase in Iranian power over Syrian territory, but also an increase in Tehran’s openness about those interventions. Business Insider reported on Friday that Qassem Suleimani, the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force had been dispatched to Syria early this week to participate in planning of the offensive and was subsequently spotted with forces outside of Aleppo.

Suleimani’s presence, which is in violation of UN travel bans stemming from his history of terrorism, has been actively broadcast on social media by Syrian and Iranian forces. The same publicity had been given to Suleimani early this year when he was a major presence in the conflict of Iraqi forces and Shiite militias against the Islamic State. He was credited with victories for the government side, providing morale boosts to loyalist Shiites and also to Iranian hardliners, who began to float the idea of a Suleimani presidency.

Publicity for Suleimani and the Quds Force in general serves as a symbol of defiance against international restrictions and also as a symbol of Iran’s increasingly broad reach into the Middle East. The general belief that Assad will be comparatively safe in the wake of this offensive supports the notion that Iran’s foreign interests will be safe as well.

Iran’s more transparent presence in Syria has been made possible by the beginning of Russian airstrikes. According to an editorial published Friday in the American Thinker, both of these things support the long-term goal of militarily encircling Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf oil states, to the mutual benefit of Iran and Russia.

According to the editorial, Iran’s interventions in places like Yemen and Bahrain have been part of this same effort, which is a long-established Iranian strategy. With Damascus securely in the hands of an Iranian-Russian alliance and with Iran still subject to a 150 billion dollar influx of capital in the wake of the nuclear agreement with the US, Tehran may be able to turn its attention to exerting pressure on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce their oil outputs and allow Iran a higher price and a larger share of the market.

Russian oil exports would similarly benefit from this strategy, giving the developing alliance greater financial resources over the long term and heightening concerns in the West about a powerful Asian bloc of countries, capable of effectively pushing back against US interests in the Middle East and the world.

apneaman on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:59 pm 



MrNoItAll, if all these MBAs, and PHDs are so fucking smart why don’t they come up with some solutions to our problems? Not one of them in the entire world has, because they can’t. Therefore I see them as nothing more than high functioning cancer cells furthering and accelerating the predicament. I’m hearing some corporate cheerleading and hero worship. What is y’all working on that is so all important? A system to suck and safely store CO2? A global solution to nuclear waste? An end to the 6th mass extinction? A plan to reverse ocean acidification? Refreeze the ice caps? Is it anything then just another for profit unnecessary ape amusement? I get the part about making good coin and not working in a place that sucks, but other than our families, we have rendered everything else meaningless IMO.

makati1 on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:11 pm 



MrNo, if your income is so good, why haven’t you downsized to an easily maintained, small home in the countryside (with a large garden area) and ended your slavery to the bank? Are you assuming that you are immune to having your house repossessed when you no longer have a job? Is it in the city or burbs? Isn’t that a bit like betting in the casino? Just askin’.

That you are ‘prepared’ is a good start, but…

Davy on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:21 pm 



Dog Paw, MR, has a functioning doomstead which is more than you can say with your “fantasy” farm. He has a job and produces something instead of you who is leaching of the American tax payer. Just tellin’

MrNoItAll on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:38 pm 



apnea — It doesn’t take a genius or an MBA or a PHD to come up with a solution to our problems. Davy for example has an excellent solution — go local. Grow your own food. Develop skills within the local community necessary to survive in a self-sustaining way. GREAT idea! Now, how do we implement that idea? We can’t. There actually are no solutions to the predicament that humans have gotten themselves into. Our collective doom is built on top of a long history of decisions and actions over which no one living today had any control. There is only ONE solution, and that will be the solution that Mother Nature and laws of physics implement. Until then, I and everybody that I work with have no choice but to dance while the music is playing.

MrNoItAll on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:48 pm 



makati1 — I live in a small town in a valley southwest of “the city” and “the burbs”. I chose not to live in the countryside. When cars are no longer of use due to unavailable gasoline, I’d rather be living in a community than out in the isolated countryside. Family and work obligations and other high priority reasons prevent me from just dropping out and going the loner hermit route. By the time the SHTF so bad that I lose my job and can’t make my house payment it won’t matter, because there will be hundreds of millions of others in the same situation. Civilization will have officially broken down — total collapse — along with all the banks and all the repo men who work for the banks. Kaput! If they want to repossess my house at that point, I’ll be on a list of forty or fifty other homes to be repossessed. I’m sure they’ll get to mine someday — if they have the legal system and the vehicles and the gas and the computer system still working, which they won’t. I don’t worry about it. And yes, I do need more land to grow crops on in order to be 100% self-sustaining. I figure by the time it gets to that point, a lot of my neighbors will have vacated, or passed away due to starvation or lack of meds or medical treatment, and there will be plenty of front and back yards in my neighborhood to start growing on. Or, in another scenario, I’ll just pack up and vacate and go live with my brother on his five acres of isolated countryside — but that won’t be my first choice. Thanks for asking!

makati1 on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 11:54 pm 



MrNo, interesting take on your situation. You seem to have thought out the pros and cons and made your choice. I wish you luck.

As for your using Davy as an example of the correct route, did you note that he has hired help to run his “self sufficient” farm? Also likely requires lots of petroleum powered machinery to make it work. That is NOT self-sufficiency nor is it prepping to live off of his own labors. It is just another form of big Ag like his rich relative’s corporations.

I doubt that he even owns his farm. The bank probably does. A real doomer would only have what he and his immediate family can care for with physical labor. The hired staff will leave when the paycheck ends. Then what?

Davy on Sun, 18th Oct 2015 6:59 am 



Makster, you are saying don’t use local labor? I am building a $40K grazing system that is permaculture Makster. Half that was paid for by Soil and Water district. http://www.progressivecattle.com/topics/range-pasture/4864-management-intensive-grazing-system-improves-performance. Here is more on what I am doing http://www.polyfacefarms.com/.

You don’t build these systems alone especially when I have a deadline to finish by December 31st. I need specialist to do well work, welding, and carpentry. I am working sun up to sun down. If I am on this board it is because I like to take breaks from building fence to check the board and comment. I am doing this in the field on my IPhone. I am doing all the fence building myself and have not the time to do everything. I am putting in 3 ½ miles of fence.

I am using petroleum machinery and will until I can’t. You cannot manage 400 acres with one person without equipment. When and if a collapse comes I will hire people if I can to help me in place of equipment. The grazing system I am putting in will eliminate some equipment usage. I have done enough work that I could eliminate equipment usage and be ok for several years. The equipment has been used to rehabilitate fields that were let go. I am preparing for collapse by buying hand tools. I suspect the collapse at least in the beginning will be a hybrid affair so some equipment will be utilized. I am ready to include animals and hand tools to that mix. Eventually when the budget allows it I will get some horses.

I have a 15,000 sq ft garden with grapes, orchard and garden divided up evenly. I have great forage potential for nuts, wild plants, and berries. We have significant wildlife opportunity with deer, turkey, rabbit, and quail. There are 3 lakes with lots of fish. Half the farm is managed for wildlife.

Mak, you have no clue what big Ag is and the permaculture system I have now. I have read your many agricultural comments and they are full of holes because the most you have ever done is a small garden. Nothing wrong with gardening but it is not farming. You don’t know permaculture farming or big AG until you have done them. I have done them both.

The farm is owned by myself and 4 others. It has been a family farm since 1948. I have done well for myself and have made good investments many of which are physical investments that are not paper assets. I am not relying on a small social security check like you do. You are 78 years old with no future in a faraway land with no family. I have family and connections. What’s in your prep locker Makster? Oh, by the way spare me your new avatar. You can’t live up to it.