Wind Energy Growing Faster than Coal in China: False Math

In a recent Slate piece Ramez Naam argues:

In almost every way you cut it, China is already taking a much more aggressive approach toward climate change than the United States is.

This is a rather bold claim seems perfectly fitted to Carl Sagan’s statement “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” Naam’s evidence is extraordinary, unfortunately it is also more than a bit inaccurate. He puts forward a bunch of evidence to support his claim. But let’s just consider this one:  ”China loves wind more than coal.”

An extraordinary claim indeed. What’s his evidence?

For all this investment in solar power, the energy source most commonly associated with China is coal—dirty, dirty coal, the most CO₂-intensive of all the fossil fuels. And yes, China does burn almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined. But in 2012, China actually deployed more new wind power than new coal power. In fact, wind power growth was more than double that of coal power growth in China—26 terawatt-hours of new wind generation in 2012 versus only 12 terawatt-hours of added coal generation in the same year.

Now, the inexorable growth of coal in China in the last decade is often news even to people who make some kind of living writing about energy, but could it possibly be slowing down? And could wind be growing faster than coal?

Consider how much coal capacity China has been installing in the last decade:

(source)

In 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 China added at least 50 GW of new coal plants each year. The average is slightly over 60 GW per year. In simple terms: since 2005 China has added the equivalent of more than five United Kingdom’s worth of electricity capacity, all in the form of coal. You will also note that the above projections (from the US government laboratory) are not exactly projecting a rapid decline in new coal plants.

So, what did happen in 2012?

Here is the basic arithmetic. China opened 50 GW of new coal plants in 2012 (according to the article Naam himself cites). In contrast China only added 15.9 GW of wind capacity. Capacity of course does not tell the whole story, a point often missed by people. Bloomberg New Energy Finance says that China’s wind farms had a capacity factor of 21.6% last year (though I must point out that where claims by BNEF are concerned you should consider investing in a bucket full of salt), which is roughly in line with most statistics I have seen. So, in real terms growth of coal plants is at least eight times greater than in wind farms. Compare this basic reality with Naam’s claim that wind is growing twice as fast as coal.

I’ll conclude by pointing out that I am repeating myself with this post. However, this now appears to a zombie fact, and I expect it to be repeated quite in the too often fact free debate around energy.

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10 Comments on "Wind Energy Growing Faster than Coal in China: False Math"

WmT D'Arthur on Mon, 20th May 2013 4:36 pm 



Capacity factor of 20% is still over-hyped, since about half of that 20% occurs at the wrong time, during off hours when too much capacity is already on the grid. You can’t control when the wind blows, so matching wind production to human demands is a nail-biting experience, full of congestion overcharges. Is storage the answer? Not economically feasible for the foreseeable future!

Kenz300 on Mon, 20th May 2013 7:41 pm 



Growth in China Wind Energy Production Exceeds Coal For First Time Ever | The Energy Collective

http://theenergycollective.com/josephromm/201401/china-wind-energy-more-than-coal-first-time-ever-2012

J-Gav on Mon, 20th May 2013 8:06 pm 



Take-away: coal’s still out there and big time, <ill be for years – ba

J-Gav on Mon, 20th May 2013 8:11 pm 



Bad news! Especially because they’re now getting down to the nasty lignite (see Germany), burns even dirtier than the usual crap.

What he doesn’t say in this article is that coal use in China goes straight to the Arctic in the form of soot – which contributes to and accelerates sea

J-Gav on Mon, 20th May 2013 8:13 pm 



Sorry – sea-ice melt and the attendant Albedo Effect. Between coal and oil/gas we’re in a pretty big fix here I’d say.

BillT on Tue, 21st May 2013 4:55 am 



The race is on. Extinction vs survival. At this point, extinction is winning. I would put ,my money on extinction wining the contest. Humans are too stupid and greedy and do not see or, if they do, they ignore, the cliff ahead.

Arthur on Tue, 21st May 2013 7:06 am 



“You can’t control when the wind blows, so matching wind production to human demands is a nail-biting experience, full of congestion overcharges. Is storage the answer? Not economically feasible for the foreseeable future!”

http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/norway-wants-to-become-europes-battery/

BillT on Tue, 21st May 2013 9:08 am 



Arthur, Norway may want to, but it will not happen. Wait and see.

Arthur on Tue, 21st May 2013 9:24 am 



Sorry Bill, undersea cables from Holland and Denmark are ready or under construction (Germany, Britain) and mountain basins and dams are in place in Norway in the framework of the European supergrid. All it takes are additional pumps and small basins downstream, see my last holiday pictures from a hydrokraftwerk in Switzerland as an example for a small extra basin (8th picture below google map).

http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/11/25/mattmark-hydro-power-plant/

Arthur on Tue, 21st May 2013 9:33 am 



Here is a view from space to illustrate what is needed to make Norway Europe’s battery pack:

http://tinyurl.com/ndxe5ub

many small additional reservoirs below the dam to pump up water in case of surplus renewable energy from Europe.