Will Future Generations Remember Our Skyskrapers as Eccentricities of an Ostentatious Era?

Consider this…if laws have to be made to convince a motorcyclist to wear a helmet, is there any hope for protecting humanity from the less perceptible, yet more calamitous risks?

The following is based on true stories – many of which have taken place throughout human history, but one of which has yet to occur.

While this particular example is shaped by a single example (note to history buffs: see if you can guess which one), it is an unfortunate reflection of the enduring human instinct to consume and control, and our persistent inability to anticipate and mitigate grave events, whether they be economic or physical.

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Once upon a time, a small group of brave travellers set sail in search of a better life. After days and weeks of sailing the treacherous seas they came upon a paradise stacked with everything anyone could possibly want.

The land was filled with lush fruits and vegetables that required no cultivation. Plenty of wild animals roamed freely. Water streamed throughout the land and tall trees grew as far as the eye could see. The land had everything anyone needed to produce food, heat and shelter. For the small group of adventurers, this was all they could ever ask for – so they remained and sent back for their wives.

The newly settled travellers built homes and lavished themselves with the simple bounty the new land had to offer. Families had sons and daughters and gradually a small community flourished. With plenty to go around, conflicts were rare and trivial, but those that occurred were managed in a consultative process set up by the original settlers.

As the population grew, the original settlers – now the community elders – formalized the administrative process, which became increasingly complicated. With many people performing specialized tasks within the community governance became an important issue. This society, as with all civilized societies, had rules – some written, some unwritten.

As agricultural knowledge developed, the community discovered ways to multiply its ability to produce fruits, vegetables and animals for food. To do this, wood from trees was used to construct fences, irrigation and transportation. Wood was also used to build boats and tools for fishing – an important source of food. By harvesting the land’s bounty of wood to improve crop and animal yields, soon the society was producing enough food to feed ten times its population.

With a surplus of food and resources, many individuals were able to break free from the burden of the hand-to-mouth existence with which many of their ancestors were encumbered. With fewer people required for agriculture, individuals could devote time to satisfying the secondary and tertiary needs of their fellow citizens. The search for food was replaced by the quest for admiration, convenience and pleasure, with most new goods created using plentiful and inexpensive wood. While these needs were insatiable, vast amounts of wood and technical knowledge were diverted further to create great monuments with no utility whatsoever.

Some industrious individuals developed new and interesting ways to use the land’s resources, many had babies, while others grew fat and lazy – some did all three. As time progressed the population grew exponentially, more ways to use the land’s trees were discovered and the political and economic system became more complex.

Eventually, a few observers spoke of their society’s dependence on wood from the land’s forest, but their concerns were dismissed – after all, the population had always produced a surplus of food. Moreover, most believed that a sophisticated society and economy could absorb the supply dynamics of a basic material such as wood with minimal impact; and in the worst case scenario the society had enough industrious people to innovate a substitute.

So people kept chopping down trees. Some ingenious citizens knowing the limits of tree supply created ways the society could maintain its production of food and goods while using less wood. Unfortunately, the unintended consequence was that instead of producing the same amount of food and goods using less wood people produced more using the same amount of wood.

Eventually, there was so much demand for wood that current harvest rates no longer sufficed. So other ingenious people found ways to chop down more trees faster. At first this satisfied demand and anyone who was remotely concerned was relieved to see that supply was steady or growing, and no lifestyle changes were required. In their eyes, technology had proved that innovation and human ingenuity was a safety net they could depend on.

However, in the eyes of the few who had previously expressed concern over the society’s dependence on wood, the new wood-gathering technology actually worsened the situation. Better harvesting technology introduced a paradox of greater dependence and quicker depletion.

Eventually, after the easily accessible large trees had been harvested, the only trees that remained were young and small. Amid scarcity, the value of remaining wood rose sharply. With the supply of trees noticeably depleting and no-longer able to support food and goods production, society began to reorganize into factions that would attempt to control remaining valuable supplies.

As food production diminished hunger grew. As hunger grew, so did the desperation of the population. The factions with the physical means soon took control of the previously democratic and sophisticated society. A society governed by common needs, cooperation and mutual understanding quickly transformed into one dominated by brute force. Civil war was set loose on the society and those with the power to control wood supply by force ate while those who could not starved or were killed.

The laws of physics prevailed over the laws of economics and civility. The wood supply, as dictated by the number of trees in the forest, could only support a limited amount of use, and, since a critical use was food production, a limited population. Like a plague of locusts, a formerly civilized population stripped the land bare, throwing its society into the dark pit of physical constraints and basic instincts.

Eventually, the society’s balance with physical constraints was restored. By starvation and murder, the population of this society atrophied within one generation to the size that could be supported by local resources – a tenth of what it was before. Ironically, this led to a new peace and civility. Almost as if society had been reset to when the first settlers arrived, the community returned to a culture of cooperation and mutual respect.

Eventually, the starvation and massacres became distant memories, and the great monuments eccentricities of an ostentatious era. Nobody remembered how the monuments were built, and gaps in societal memory were filled with myths and legends. Most importantly, fables about abundance, wealth and greed were passed on to children, who then vowed they would cherish the land forever.

planbeconomics.com