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Page added on November 3, 2017
The Era Of Oil And Gas Is Nearing Its End
The history of crude oil and natural gas is a history of technological innovation. Until recently the innovation supported crude oil and natural gas. Now, it challenges it, causing structural changes in the crude oil and natural gas markets.
Originally, crude oil was only used for lighting. This changed following the invention of the internal combustion engine, which outperformed steam engine in power, range and ease of operation and maintenance, and the invention of the conveyor belt, which made it possible to mass-produce the internal combustion engine at a price which was affordable to the masses. Not much later, crude oil became the transportation fuel of choice. The horse drawn carriage was replaced by the car; the locomotive by the diesel train; the steamship by the motor vessel; and the zeppelin by the airplane.
For a long time, natural gas was an unwanted by-product from crude oil production, and typically burned off (flared) at the production site. That was until, again, technological innovation made utilization of the benefits in natural gas possible. Improvements in pipeline technology made it possible to use natural gas as a feedstock for the chemicals industry, and as fuel for home heating, cooking and power generation. Later on, LNG technology improvements greatly expanded the market for natural gas and made it truly global.
Technological innovation was therefore not only behind the first great energy revolution—from wood to coal—during the Industrial Revolution of the 18th and 19th century, but also behind the second great energy revolution—from coal to crude oil and natural gas—during the first half of the 20th century.
American Energy Consumption by Source, 1775-2012
(Click to enlarge)
Source: Energy Information Agency, via Bloomberg
Now, in 2017, crude oil and natural gas, the great beneficiaries of earlier technological innovation, find themselves challenged because of continued technological innovation. Innovation in (battery) technology has made the electric drivetrain a serious competitor for the internal combustion engine, leaving crude oil challenged by electricity while at the same time that natural gas is being challenged by solar and wind in electricity generation.
This has led some to predict the imminent demise of the oil and gas industry. But is this the correct conclusion?
We must remember that both crude oil and natural gas are not solely used for transportation (crude oil) and electricity generation (natural gas). And some of the drivers of crude oil demand, such as heavy duty hauling and aviation, will remain unaffected by the electrification of transportation trend. The same goes for natural gas, which will remain the main source of chemicals and energy for the heavy-duty industries such as steel, aluminum, cement and paper.
Even if the current expectations around technological innovation materialize, it will still take time before crude oil is comprehensively outperformed by electricity in transportation and natural gas by solar and wind in electricity generation.
Along with battery innovation, the electrification of transport also requires the development of recharging infrastructure. In areas where most houses have garages this is less of an issue, as their electric cars could be charged overnight at home. And since overnight charging means charging during off-peak hours, this wouldn’t be an immediate issue for most existing power grids. In areas with many homes without garages, however, a publically accessible charging network will need to be established. The most sensible solution for such areas is to equip public parking and office parking spaces with chargers (a fantastic business opportunity for utility companies!), but this requires collaboration between city planners, real estate developers and entrepreneurs, all of whom, barring a few exceptions, have only just begun thinking through the implications of electric transportation. Thus, it will most likely take years—possibly even decades—for many areas around the world to become truly supportive of the electric transportation trend.
The shift from coal- and gas-powered electricity generation to wind and solar faces similar practical hurdles in many parts of the world. In wealthier countries, funds will be available to finance a relatively fast transition, which will include early retirement of coal and gas plants. In countries where the grid is immature and investment is necessary, this investment can quite easily be directed toward solar and wind and away from coal and gas, leading such countries to skip the coal and gas age and move straight into the renewables era. Countries with existing coal- and/or gas-based electricity grids—whether poor or faced with competing priorities (growth or sustainability?)—will be more inclined to leverage the existing infrastructure as long as possible, however, ensuring continuation of at least part of current natural gas demand for electricity generation for a long time to come.
So even under the most optimistic forecasts for technological innovation, usage of—and thus, demand—for crude oil and natural gas will likely remain well into the future, but could soon reach a peak.
That doesn’t mean that the oil and gas industry will stay the same and has nothing to worry about. The mentioned technological trends will definitely create a completely different market dynamic. Managing profitability and growth in a flatlining or even shrinking market is completely different from managing them in a growing market, after all.
Natural decline will demand continued investment in crude oil and natural gas resources to be able to continue to meet demand, under both kinds of market conditions. However, in a growing market natural decline is a much bigger challenge than in a flatlining or shrinking market, as in the former more than the natural decline will have to be added to production, while in the latter less will already suffice.
In a flatlining or shrinking market for crude oil and natural gas, oversupply will therefore be a continuous threat, making the kind of pressure on the price that the oil and gas industry has experienced over the last few years a permanent reality—think “lower forever” instead of “lower for longer”. In this environment, competitive advantage is in the lowest cost resources and operations. In the former, the NOCs have the edge over the IOCs; in the latter, however, most NOCs remain outperformed by their international counterparts.
Also, in a flatlining or shrinking market, growth can only be achieved through consolidation. Only the very best performing IOCs will be granted access to the resources of the not-so-well performing NOCs, while the IOCs with anything less than stellar performance will exit the market, as the low-price environment will push many NOCs to upgrade their own capabilities to ensure continued profitability.
This exit from the market by the IOCs with less than stellar performance will either be through bankruptcy or diversification into a new market with continued growth potential. Thus, there can be no doubt that diversification is now an urgent must for all IOCs to ensure long term growth and hedge against the risk of eventual obsolescence.
By Andreas de Vries for Oilprice.com
54 Comments on "The Era Of Oil And Gas Is Nearing Its End"
Shortend on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 9:14 am
Ohh,they’ll think of something…ADAMBS says so.
Darrell Cloud on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 10:39 am
I am relatively sure that the necessary adaptations will be rather medieval in nature once the chaos spirals out of control. Those adaptions will probably have a flavor of Steam Punk thrown in as we slide back into the energy consumption levels of the 19th century. We flat landers need to keep schematics for motts and bailies in the back of our minds. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_castle
Darrell Cloud on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 10:52 am
We all know that Malthus was British. Like the young Duke, his perception of the limits of growth was no doubt shaped by the fact that he lived on an island. The young Duke is stating the obvious. Like the rest of us, we all shake our heads at what we see unfolding and hope that the impending die off is suffered by others than those near and dear to us.
What troubles me is that some deep, dark Davos group will weaponized you pick it: bird flu, the plague, ebola.
Joe on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 11:17 am
I think people are getting way ahead of themselves with this new “clean energy future” thing. Tesla’s model 3 program alone is set to use up 10% of global cobalt supply. Can’t imagine how it would be posible to produce 100 million EVs per year. It would require a 20x increase in global cobalt supplies. And wind & Solar? Wind uses rare earths as well, solar needs silver, neither of which are in sufficient supply to run the world on. Not to mention that running the world on energy that depends on the weather….
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 11:37 am
Can’t imagine how it would be posible to produce 100 million EVs per year.
The idea is to partially phase out private car ownership and replace it with autonomous driving, that is a publicly owned car fleet.
#HeyTaxi!
Davy on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 11:49 am
“The idea is to partially phase out private car ownership and replace it with autonomous driving, that is a publicly owned car fleet.”
Sure, that should be a breeze to arrange. Governments are flush with cash and people hate their cars. Lol.
Dumb, forgot to mention all the cost of the EV infrastructure. If it is fossil fuel driven then that is just a worse alternative to ICE. If it is a renewable driven transition then the cost will likely hockey stick for 100MIL EV’s when one considers in addition to the EV infrastructure the grid upgrades, storage needs, and the actual wind/solar apparatus. Dumb doesn’t think that far ahead. He is enamored by the whole autonomous thingy. This is just more techno optimism at its worse. Let’s extend the car culture with fancy alternatives.
How about demand management with realistic changes. This may include EV’s but also conservation. It will include fossil fuels too because we don’t have what it takes to leave them. Until behavior changes this whole fake green process is a joke.
Dredd on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 12:10 pm
“The Era Of Oil And Gas Is Nearing Its End”
And “nearing” is as ambiguous as guessing what will happen as one is nearing a trapped animal (Trapped Heat Is Like Trapped Animals (Somewhat Unpredictable)).
MASTERMIND on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 2:31 pm
Dear Reader,
Simple really….when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end….were
talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in
short order…The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I’m talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once. I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 3:02 pm
MM, there are a lot of scenarios and a lot of locals wrapped up in an unfolding global process. Your worst case scenario is valid but when and where is the question. It took us 200 years to get to this point. It may take less to unravel that process but how much is the reason I am here. It matters to me if I have 3 years or 10. We may be dead tomorrow but until we are dead we should live to die another day.
rockman on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 3:42 pm
And now back to the reality as proven by the factual numbers: the era of the oil and gas age is nearing or at its PEAK. Of course sometime down the road it will certainly be drawing close to its “end”. But given near all time record production levels it ain’t there yet. The title of this article is definitely premature ejac…I mean premature emancipation from the cruel petroleum master. LOL.
Or one can go the other way: the day Col. Drake drilled that first well the end of the petroleum era began nearing its end… eventually. Just as being born starts you on the road towards death.
Just can’t help responding sarcastically to such article. Some folks so despise the petroleum industry (despite rewarding it daily by their consumption) they want to paint it as banging on death’s door. Someday the petroleum industry will go the way of the dinosaurs. But not next year, not next decade and not the next several decades.
But eventually it will. But not after most trying to dance on our grave today have reached room temperature themselves. LOL.
energy investor on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 4:39 pm
@rockman,
We must remember that the downward slope after peaking of oil will be steep and slippery, so that many bad things will occur once we can no longer get what we want.
It will take any transition to renewables many years from now and many trillions of 2017 dollars to be ready for that.
A financial deleveraging crash will soon cut down on the funds available for us people to continue to consume as much oil as we do and that will stretch things out and drop the oil price. But it will also make funding unavailable to the O&G industry – an industry already being demonised by some investors.
But whether the peak oil production is tomorrow or ten years hence, it will still be too close for comfort.
makati1 on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 7:00 pm
Peak NET oil energy production was years ago. EROEI is sliding down the slope to the end point. It doesn’t matter how much oil is left or where. It will stop being pumped when it is a net energy loss. Price be damned. Billions of barrels will stay in the ground forever.
I suspect that the financial system that currently props it up is going to go down first and limit oil use to governments and militaries. The serfs will not have “renewables” to fall back on. That is a sick techie joke on the gullible. Again, EROEI. No “renewable” comes 100% from a “renewable” energy source. None. And they never will. (Sorry Cloggie, etc.) Logic tells you so.
onlooker on Fri, 3rd Nov 2017 7:09 pm
Yes, what Makati says is so true, as Net energy declines, it weakens the Economy ever more especially the Oil Industry. So that the buying power of the consumers dwindles and the Oil Industry is deprived of funds/energy and all together a swirling down the drain dynamic till the nadir. By the way, according to some we are not too far away from this final denouement.
deadlykillerbeaz on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 3:29 am
The oil and gas era will end when people stop driving the ice vehicle to the grocery store to buy vegetables, grains, and meat products produced using oil and gas to grow and raise those basic foodstuffs.
In other words, there will be no agriculture, no ranching, no mass produced hog operations, no poultry farming, you go out to the woods, gather what you can, kill a rabbit, then eat your bounty.
When the oil and gas era ends, you’re on your own. You’ll find out fast what the end of an era can do.
Not a pretty picture, if you ask me. It will be a war of all against all.
You might think your brain is the be all and the dead on center of what you want it all to be, but in the final analysis, your stomach rules.
Food trumps everything. Doesn’t matter what day it is, you’ll be working to find what you can.
No oil means the end of the world as we know it.
As it all is right now, it’s a gas.
Quit knocking oil and everything that goes with it, without any of it, it spells doom.
Saturday is beer drinking day.
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 4:17 am
I suspect that the financial system that currently props it up is going to go down first and limit oil use to governments and militaries. The serfs will not have “renewables” to fall back on. That is a sick techie joke on the gullible. Again, EROEI. No “renewable” comes 100% from a “renewable” energy source. None. And they never will. (Sorry Cloggie, etc.) Logic tells you so.
North-Americans, from makati to Greg to Davy to “mastermind”… are so solidly hooked up to fossil fuel that they can’t imagine any alternative.
No oil means the end of the world as we know it
America = oil
I say this without sarcasm or offense intended. America rose to geopolitical stratospheric heights thanks to the power of oil and it will come down when oil is gradually running out.
With the US innovative power declining, thanks to the rapid darkening of the US, the belief and enthusiasm to innovate your way out of the energy problems is simply not there.
In Europe, where science and technology began and that until today gives scientists worldwide a pat on the back of encouragement (Nobel prizes), nobody questions that renewable energy is the next big thing and nobody worries about EROI somehow mysteriously will sabotage the transition. Only laymen on US doomer forums do that.
Fine with me. Keep talking yourself in the grave. History has shown that the political entity which is able to apply a new energy source first, will be the next geopolitical top dog.
That applied to Holland in the 17th century, when wind mills drove sawing machines that build a Dutch imperial fleet, three times the size of the rest of the world combined.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGsjkEQMCPA
That applied to Britain in the 19th century, when a combination of steam engines powered by coal enabled railways, steamships, factories:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=be8DXTEgerQ
And that applied to the US, where the discovery of oil enabled an industrial society and military, superior to that of coal, because of higher energy density and the ability to pump the stuff over ever larger distances:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeSLPELpMeM
[part 1]
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 4:17 am
The oil age is running out. And although there is sufficient fossil fuel left (as sub-sea coal or methane hydrates), that with new technology could be exploited and fuel the planet for thousands of years to come, environmental concerns would prohibit that strategy. Renewable energy it is going to be. The entire world knows that, apart from outliers like the US, Syria and most participants on this forum.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nicaragua-paris-climate_us_59eeeb1ce4b07cf8380c1bc3
The very fact that the EU has a deep, coherent renewable energy strategy, will almost ensure that Europe will replace the US in the geopolitical pecking order.
Over the past decades Europeans drove to Texaco for gasoline.
Today European companies build turn-key wind farms in Texas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUQifpcGTrg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xx0rlBjHUGo
The longer it takes for the US to adopt an official renewable energy policy on a federal level, the bigger the gab will become between European and American renewable energy industries. Additionally Europe is lucky to have so much shallow water in the North Sea and Baltic, ideal for massive application of offshore wind to the tune that it can supply entire Europe of 500 million with renewable electricity.
[part 2]
makati1 on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 4:40 am
Cloggie, I am not hooked on FF. I live where it is barely used. I am just realistic when it comes to ‘renewables’. ALL of them depend on FF to exist and when FFs disappear, so will they, shortly after. I know you deny this so I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. Time will tell.
makati1 on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 4:47 am
BTW: http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/12/machines-making-machines-making.html
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 4:59 am
“North-Americans, from makati to Greg to Davy to “mastermind”… are so solidly hooked up to fossil fuel that they can’t imagine any alternative.”
Dumb, review the true numbers and you will see Eurotard land is too you just are in denial of the real situation. You live in a fantasy future that will likely never happen. I say likely because I would be an intellectual liar if I said it couldn’t. We just don’t know there is too many loose ends and too many other issues that might affect the outcome. We are real and you are fake. Renewables are created by fossil fuels and they cannot replicate themselves without fossil fuels. This is the current reality. Forget your fake golden age nonsense. Renewables are likely a dead end of a failed civilization. As an extender of the status quo they will be very effective.
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 5:03 am
“Cloggie, I am not hooked on FF. I live where it is barely used”
LMFAO at the dumbas mad kat. Mad Kat you are in a 20MIL mega population region that uses a huge amount of fossil fuels for everything. Your dumbass thinks because you don’t turn up the AC you are not using much FF. You think because you walk and don’t drive much you don’t use FF. Mad Kat, how do you think all those supplies you use get there? You use more fossil fuels than many here on this board because of where you live dumbass. Go climb back in your hole mole man.
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 5:11 am
We just don’t know there is too many loose ends and too many other issues that might affect the outcome.
Fine. While you just “don’t know”, we entrepreneurial Europeans, like Columbus, throw ourselves into the unknown in order to discover unknown lands.
Niet geschoten is altijd mis
(If you don’t shoot, yo will always miss)
Renewables are created by fossil fuels and they cannot replicate themselves without fossil fuels.
Typical laymen’s beginners mistake, derived from a non-understanding of the EROEI concept and physics in general.
Forget your fake golden age nonsense.
Golden decade:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM9_PrBoq9Q
(You knowingly keep inserting this false statement, showing you are a deeply dishonest person)
Renewables are likely a dead end of a failed civilization.
The only dead-ender is you, with your depressed, tired, self-defeating doomer opinions.
makati1 on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 5:30 am
Must be frustrating to know that your world is fast disintegrating around you and your 1%er family cannot make it go away. lol
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 5:31 am
“Fine. While you just “don’t know”, we entrepreneurial Europeans, like Columbus, throw ourselves into the unknown in order to discover unknown lands.”
First, Euroland is not the center of world innovation and not by a long shot. Those places are global and they are in pockets. All these various global pockets then combine to form an effort. You are so far into your Eurotardness you act like because you are white and a Eurotard then you are the baddest MF’s on the planet. Referencing Columbus makes you look dumber and Dutch.
“Typical laymen’s beginners mistake, derived from a non-understanding of the EROEI concept and physics in general.”
Explain Einstien, maybe you are the one who does not understand physics because physics is not emotional and support fantasy. Please give me a reference on physics in general, dumber.
“(You knowingly keep inserting this false statement, showing you are a deeply dishonest person)”
Explain dumber, and I don’t watch your stupid movies. Give me a link with the words that reference your assertion or you are the deeply dishonest one. You are the one peddling the goods and I am telling others your goods are fake.
“Renewables are likely a dead end of a failed civilization.”
Nature, something you dismiss as a force, is cyclical and industrial civilization is completely linear. Tell me bright eyes how that is going to end. IMA, your precious white Eurotard land are the ones who made this civilization what it is and now it is dying. This death lies at the feet of Euro civilization for judgment. You dumb n dutch need to be on trial.
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 5:41 am
This is friggen great. Mad Kat, I thought you ignored me. LOL. Was it too hard today? Dumb n dutch tried yesterday his hardest but he couldn’t very long either. You see you stupid old men can’t stand being neutered and it is so easy to neuter the both of you. When you brag about yourselves and shag other you open yourself up to a huge amount of attacks. Maybe that is why the both of you know so little about military matters. You have a huge amount of assertions to support. When you start your extremist lying then you enter the vicious circle of lies needed to support lies until you look ridiculous. The both of you are the worst thing that could happen to this board. I have told the both of you to moderate and show respect. No, not your fake idea of respect where you can disrespect people indirectly but then want the stupid politically correct by no name calling. That is what is wrong with the world today and that is the relativity of the politically incorrect politically correct. You can’t establish the ground rules of what is correct. You can’t have your double standards. You both are a farce and I will out you until the very last day. Moderate and show respect or you will be dissected. The existential problem for extremist is once they moderate then they are no longer extremist. Then their fantasies, embellishments, and revisions become null and void. You two are stuck wanting to be extremist but being punished daily for it.
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 6:06 am
First, Euroland is not the center of world innovation and not by a long shot.
Wrong.
Europe – 25.6%
USA – 25.3%
Japan – 20%
China 19%
South-Korea – 7%
http://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/articles/2017/article_0002.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/256845/ranking-of-the-10-countries-who-filed-the-most-international-patent-applications/
It needs to be said that patent applications are almost always about very small details, nuts and bolts level really and not too indicative for real innovations.
I know as I worked for the European Patent Office in Munich, setting up new patent application software.
If you look at the real big innovations: telephone, radio, television, cars, flying, mining, space travel, shipbuilding, high-rise building, satellites, nuclear, internet… it is white man only.
Sorry Davy, the facts are “racist”.lol
http://tinyurl.com/y9b76bjg
(American data)
To be fair to Americans, they are not around long enough to shorten the gab with Europe and probably never will, due to insane immigration policies, as pushed through by the only serious (((adversary))) we have and 1%-er Americans like you love to serve, because of the imperial drive that emanates from them, which makes you feel great.
http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/immigration.pdf
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 6:23 am
Dumb, I hardly call that the center. I call that what I called it in my comment and that is a globalized world of pockets of innovation. Plus patents are not all about innovation. Innovation is much more but of course and extremist will only look at the size of the number. It is like looking at a big dick that does not get hard. What good is it?
“Sorry Davy, the facts are “racist”.lol http://tinyurl.com/y9b76bjg (American data)”
Folks, dumb n Dutch is really getting innovative with his links. He uses a tinyurl to link a WordPress link that is his personal extremist link library to link another tinyurl link. I stopped there because this is too funny. Dumb n Dutch is the winner of the extremist award of tricks and illusions. What a bottom feeding looser.
Dumb n dutch put down the words that go with your link and put them in parentheses. If you don’t you are hiding something. You are being an intellectually dishonest person. Show the words behind the assertion liar.
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 6:32 am
Folks…
Davy is desperately looking for support because he senses he can’t handle me on his own.
Folks, dumb n Dutch is really getting innovative with his links. He uses a tinyurl to link a WordPress link that is his personal extremist link library to link another tinyurl link. I stopped there because this is too funny. Dumb n Dutch is the winner of the extremist award of tricks and illusions. What a bottom feeding looser.
Furious Dave is now trying to deflect attention away from the real (American) source of the data:
Charles Murray and Richard J. Herrnstein – The Bell Curve
…and instead begins to stutter about irrelevant tinyurl and WordPress.
/facepalm
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 6:52 am
Dumb, what’s da matter” is your drivel exposed? Is your illusions of authenticity fake? Try putting down the actual link with the words to support your assertions then we can debate what you put down. I am not going to play your extremist games. You are a fraud and I am outing you.
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 7:04 am
Clogmeister, what’s da matter” is your drivel exposed? Is your illusions of authenticity fake? Try putting down the actual link with the words to support your assertions then we can debate what you put down. I am not going to play your extremist games. You are a fraud and I am outing you.
I just showed to Angry Dave that Europe + its junior offshoot US is the center of the universe as far as innovation is concerned. Nota bene referring to American data, so it must be true.lol
Do you have a link to data that Europe is NOT the center of the universe as far as innovation is concerned (or anything else for that matter?).
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 7:15 am
LMFAO, dumb, does it bother you when I call you dumb n dutch so you have to change that to clogmeister. Double LOL.
You didn’t show me shit dumb. You showed me how shallow you are intellectually. Dumb, you are the one saying something with an empty link. Put down the words with the link and we can debate it. If I am saying something that is my opinion I may or may not use a link with words supporting that assertion. What I will not do is do a dumb n dutch with an assertion with and empty link. You are a fraud dumb n dutch just like mad kat. You both have a whole tool chest of extremist tricks to peddle your agenda just like any good capitalist marketer. FRAUD
MASTERMIND on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 10:58 am
Cloggie:
Asian’s have much higher IQ’S then white people…And all humans IQ’S peak around the age of 25 and then go into revere…Why do you think Madkat is so deluded? He is well past peak!
rockman on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 12:07 pm
Investor – “We must remember that the downward slope after peaking of oil will be steep…”. It won’t be a “steep” decline as I would define steep. How do you quantify it? And why would you expect such a future global production profile?
To offer some base for how you and I view “steep” here’s the US oil production chart.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_petroleum_industry_in_the_United_States#/media/File%3AUS_Crude_Oil_Prodxn%2C_1920_to_2014.tiff
Ignore the increase from the high oil price induced shale boom and focus on the decline from the 70’s to 2007 or so. Would you characterize the US production decline as “steep”? I would not…far from it. But that’s just me. What say you?
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 12:21 pm
Asian’s have much higher IQ’S then white people
No they have not, except for a few smaller countries. Japan is indeed significant. China is with IQ100 white average.
http://list25.com/25-countries-with-the-highest-average-iq/5/
107 – Hongkong
106 – South-Korea
105 – Japan
104 – Taiwan
103 – Singapore
102 – Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Italy
101 – Switzerland
100 – UK, NZ, Belgium, China
99 – Hungary, Poland, Spain
98 – USA, Denmark, Australia, Norway, Mongolia, France
97 – Canada
And again, IQ is VERY important as a predictor for income and national wealth, but not inventiveness.
What is working against Asians is their XXL conformity, which predestines them for listening and copying. Thinking out of the box and coming up with something new: a no-no.
http://tinyurl.com/y9b76bjg
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 12:37 pm
IQ is a racist Fraud, dumb n Dutch. I can cherry pick a local US population and show a higher IQ than your cherry picked numbers. You are a racist fraud dumb n Dutch. There is much more to life than A Euro designed IQ. If IQ was so great why is it that the EURO way has destroyed a planet? Euros with their high IQ left a lasting legacy of a destroyed planet and you are crowing about it. I think going into this new word of decline and decay a new determination of human value is needed.
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 1:01 pm
IQ is a racist Fraud, dumb n Dutch. I can cherry pick a local US population and show a higher IQ than your cherry picked numbers. You are a racist fraud dumb n Dutch.
Our virtue-signaling friend from Missouri recent said:
http://peakoil.com/production/us-oil-floated-on-cheap-money/comment-page-2#comments
I am against immigration and race/culture mixing anymore. A little is OK and it is going to happen so let’s adapt and adjust but let’s not promote it like it is a good thing.
Davy can be a little bit of a spineless hypocrite at times; white nationalist leader Richard Spencer says basically the same thing.
Davy claims that IQ is created by Europeans and he is right, but then, what isn’t?
What is not an European invention is the strong correlation between IQ and income, regardless if this is observed on an individual level or on a national level:
https://humanvarieties.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gdp-iq-scatter.png
The US national IQ maybe 98 still, but since in the age bracket of [0-5] whites are no longer the majority, expect the US average national IQ to rapidly drop in the coming years, providing huge opportunities for other powers on this planet to advance in the pecking order and expect Eurasia in general racing ahead.
But Dave prefers to ignore IQ. Thinking is not his cup of tea anyway, an activity he considers as “sitting on your nuts”. Davy prefers to be in free nature and walk around with wheelbarrows filled with goat dung and that makes him sympathetic.
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 1:28 pm
Dumb, I stand by what I said and will say it again.
You still didn’t sell the Magic IQ test or address the European crimes against humanity (US of course included). You are a fraud dumb n Dutch and a disgrace to the fine Dutch people. One of my best friends is Dutch but he is nothing like your slimy nastiness.
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 1:53 pm
the European crimes against humanity (US of course included).
How about counting the European blessings for a change? Everybody wants to live in Europe or offshoot America, so we can’t have done everything wrong. Without Europe, Africa and the America’s would still be in the Stone Age.
Go bark up another tree, you self-hating idiot.
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 2:41 pm
What blessing? Ok wine and cheese. What else? FRAUD
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 3:05 pm
Muslims don’t drink. So it is not wine (and cheese) all these Muslims come for. And since you confided that thinking is not your thing, I help you: they want European levels of wealth, healthcare, housing, life expectancy, comfort.
Hope this helps.
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 3:36 pm
Dumb, that’s fine but if you would have left their cultures alone they would have stasis with a culture that is theirs not your imposed Eurotardness. We destroyed a planet and there is no excuse for that. Let’s allow some humility without excuses. That is something you are incapable of. Admitting wrong is difficult for someone who constantly brags and shaggs.
Anonymous on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 3:55 pm
World crude and condensate is up 20% (over 12 MM bpd) since 2000.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/9/3/25307363-15044297903133984.png
At least the late 1970s peakers had something to crow about. Look at that drop in 1980. The early 2000s peaker movement got a plateau for a few years and that was it.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 4:14 pm
Anonymous-
Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-EIA-NATURE-ENERGY-SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN
http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213009420
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-peak-oil-already-happened/
New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn
We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s – ASPO
http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg
Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are declining (Hook, 2009)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281
Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks
BP 1.7 Trillion barrels proven oil reserves NOT so proven
http://crudeoilpeak.info/oil-reserves-and-resources-as-function-of-oil-price
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html
UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/
Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after Industry Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/halliburton-sees-2020-oil-spike-after-industry-cuts-2-trillion
Total CEO warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment & new discoveries
http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je-suis-convaincu-qu-on-va-manquer-de-petrole-selon-le-pdg-de-total-patrick-pouyanne-9b2d911a65572f5f989a74319b68d296
Looks like the Peak Oil is back…And this time the wolf is here…
MASTERMIND on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 4:15 pm
Anonymous
New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn
We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s – ASPO
http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg
Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are declining (Hook, 2009)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281
Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks
BP 1.7 Trillion barrels proven oil reserves NOT so proven
http://crudeoilpeak.info/oil-reserves-and-resources-as-function-of-oil-price
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html
Looks like Peak Oil is back..And this time the wolf is here!
MASTERMIND on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 4:17 pm
The 1973 so-called “oil embargo” which reduced oil supply to the USA by somewhere around 3% or 4%. It slammed the US economy, caused the largest stock market crash since the great depression, doubled gasoline prices, severely damaged US industry and caused a 55 MPH national speed limit which remained in effect for ten years. The government also put restrictions on how much gasoline you could purchase. There were fist fights and even a couple murders between the public at gas stations. Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.
makati1 on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 7:26 pm
Or when the US is in a deep depression and cannot afford the price other countries still can. Therefore, THEY get the oil and the US does not. Did you ever think about that possibility, MM? I find that possibility more likely in the next 5-10 years than a world wide shortage.
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 7:32 pm
Or when the world is in a deep depression, have you ever thought of that Mad Kat.
Anonymous on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 11:10 pm
“conventional oil” is just an excuse for the peak oilers missing out on new sources of oil.
Anonymous on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 11:18 pm
Peakers: “Peak oil is coming. We have calculated resource size and how fast we are using it up.”
Cornies: “Well, we might be able to find more, use technology, EOR, seismic, etc.”
Peakers: “Typical lightweight promise that technology will save you. Cornies are silly.”
Cornies: “Hey look! Oil production is up!”
Peakers: “No fair. You used new sources and methods. That’s unconventional.”
MASTERMIND on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 11:59 pm
The Oil Supply Shortage is coming Madkat…You know damn well…Dont deny
makati1 on Sun, 5th Nov 2017 12:33 am
MM, shortage? For whom? Yes, for those not able to pay the higher prices. That includes the deeply in debt America. Especially when the new IMF SDR monetary system is the ONLY one the oil sellers will deal with.
What if the US has to buy SDRs at gold prices, or with gold? The US has no gold to use. I do see hardship coming to the #1 Debtor Nation as oil declines and prices grow. The entire US way of life needs oil for its 250,000,000 vehicles that are necessary for just about everything. When gas is $20+ per gallon…?
Dollars will be about worthless for trade at that point. When? Next year? 2 Years? 5? Not more surly.