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Page added on July 21, 2013
Robert Rapier: Hydropower and Geothermal Status Update 2013
This is the 2nd installment in a series that looks at the recently released 2013 BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The previous post – Renewable Energy Status Update 2013 – focused mainly on wind and solar power. This post delves into hydropower and geothermal power. Some of the BP data is supplemented by REN21′s recently-released 2013 Renewables Global Status Report (GSR). (Disclosure: I have been a reviewer for the GSR for the past three years).
Hydropower
Hydropower accounts for more electricity production than solar PV, wind, and geothermal combined. In 2012, hydropower accounted for 16% of the world’s electricity production. However, hydropower gets far less press because it is a mature technology with a much lower annual growth rate than most renewables. While solar PV increased capacity by an average of 60% per year over the past 5 years, new hydropower capacity increased at a much more modest annual rate of 3.3%.
However, since 1). The installed base for hydropower is so high; and 2). The capacity factors for hydropower tend to be much higher than those for intermittent renewables — the amount of hydropower produced dwarfs that of the other renewable options. (The capacity factor is simply the amount of power produced divided by the power that would be produced if the power source was producing at full capacity at all times). Between 2002 and 2012, the amount of hydropower consumed globally increased by more than 1,000 terawatt hours (TWh). Over that same period of time, the amount of wind and solar power consumed increased by 560 TWh — albeit at a much higher annual rate of growth.
The capacity of hydropower plants also dwarfs that of other renewables such as wind and solar. In fact, the four largest power plants in the world are all hydropower plants. The only non-hydropower plant in the Top 5 is the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, which is the world’s 5th largest power plant.
Despite hydropower’s current dominant position among renewables, growth in consumption of hydroelectricity will likely continue to be modest, because many of the best sites for hydroelectric dams have already been developed. The exception to this is in the Asia Pacific region, where hydroelectric consumption more than doubled over the past decade. The region currently accounts for 35% of global hydroelectric consumption, and that percentage is likely to increase as countries continue to develop hydroelectric power plants.
Geothermal
The BP Statistical Review lumps geothermal and biomass power together, presumably because they are both considered firm power options. (Firm power is simply power that is supposed to be available as needed, as opposed to intermittent power which may only be available when the sun shines or the wind blows). As a result, the BP data is supplemented with the REN21 report to isolate the geothermal contribution.
Geothermal energy is energy obtained from the earth’s internal heat. It is one of the most environmentally benign sources of energy, producing little to no emissions during normal operation. Like hydropower, geothermal electricity is a relatively mature renewable technology, which is reflected by its modest 4% annual growth rate over the past 5 years.
Geothermal electricity is produced when heat from within the earth is used to produce steam, which is then passed through a turbine. Electricity produced in this way generally requires fairly shallow geothermal reservoirs (less than 2 miles deep). Geothermal electricity has a high capacity factor, and the cost of generation is comparable to that of coal-fired generation.
Geothermal energy can be also be used for heating or cooling. Hot springs or water circulating in hot zones can be used to heat buildings. Geothermal heat pumps take advantage of the earth’s temperature a few feet below the ground—consistently 50° to 60°F—to heat buildings in the winter and cool them in the summer.
In 2012, at least 78 countries used geothermal directly for energy. Over two-thirds of the geothermal energy for direct use was through geothermal heat pumps. 24 countries operated geothermal plants for electricity production. Total geothermal electricity capacity was 11.7 GW at the end of 2012. Capacity was led by the U.S. with 3.4 GW of capacity, followed by the Philippines at 1.9 GW, Indonesia at 1.3 GW, Mexico at 1.0 GW, and Italy at 0.9 GW. On a per capita basis, Iceland leads the world with 0.7 GW of capacity, which accounted for 30% of the country’s electricity in 2012.
The largest producer of geothermal power in North America is Calpine (NYSE: CPN), which operates 15 geothermal power plants at The Geysers region of Northern California. The 725 megawatts of geothermal power produced there represent about 40% of the North American total. The largest producer of geothermal power in the world, however, isn’t a company that many people might guess. It is Chevron (NYSE: CVX), which pioneered the development of The Geysers, and today operates geothermal plants in Indonesia and the Philippines.
Conclusions
Hydropower and geothermal power will continue to make important contributions to the world’s renewable energy portfolio, but they are unlikely to see the kinds of growth rates likely to be experienced by solar power over the next decade. Geothermal power still produces more electricity globally than solar PV, but was passed up by wind power in recent years. However, hydropower will likely continue its leading role as the world’s most important producer of renewable electricity until well into the next decade.
10 Comments on "Robert Rapier: Hydropower and Geothermal Status Update 2013"
BillT on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 12:54 am
Hydro may be one of the few power sources left after oil. But the reservoirs behind the dams are silting up and will likely not last beyond 2050. Then again, they require regular maintenance and placement of those huge dynamos which will also become more and more difficult as time passes.
Few new dams will be built anywhere as the price of energy goes up. (The Three Gorges Dam required about 100,000,000 barrels of oil to construct and will be silted in by 2050 or so. Not to mention that it is built over a fault line…lol.)
This is a technology that has been around for 100 plus years, and was used to grind grain even longer. But it will be used to make energy only until the current equipment wears out and the reservoirs fill with silt. Then they will just be shallow lakes until mother nature rem0ves them.
DC on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 1:42 am
Is RR un-aware that most of the worlds hydropower sites have already been utilized? I mean, I suppose we could always find new spots to stick new dams, but we are clearly at peak hydro-power now. Placing new dams downstream of existing ones is about all we have left now. And that is hardly an option. Most of the potential sites are remote, building them would cause massive damage, let along the huge cots to run power lines to where the power is actally needed.
I like how dams have now been re-branded and lumped in with ‘renewables’. Hey even coal tried to jump on that bandwagon with there hilarious ‘clean-coal’ PR campaign.
Question: How ‘renewable’ will say, Hoover dam in the US be with the US sucking the Colorado river dry all along its length? Similar fates await other mega dams as more water gets diverted before it ever hits a turbine, or it simply gets hotter and drier due to the unlimited expansion of cars and coal plants. Interesting times ahead for most dams IMO.
Others on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 3:20 am
100 GW (100,000 MW) of Hydro electric capacity is under construction.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectricity
Still a lot more are there to come. There is also tidal turbines which can get power from moving river waters and this could increase the tally.
Geothermal is just beginning and there is lot to go.
Arthur on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 4:54 am
The author fails to mention the most important contribution hydro is going to make in the renewable energy system of the future: mass energy storage, not so much generation. Future:
Solar (summer), wind (winter), smart grid for distribution, local microstorage, hydrostorage for filtering out intermittent supply on a continental scale.
GregT on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 6:54 am
All of our electricity here comes from hydro. The entire system is in need of tens of billions in repairs and upgrades. Repairs and upgrades that are solely dependent on fossil fuels.
If this maintenance ever does get completed, it will be the last time that it will. Another fifty years from now, the entire system will simply cease to function.
Arthur on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 7:12 am
Repairs and upgrades will be carried out regardless according to the paying capacity of a society. An engineer who used to do the maintenance work for 7000$/month 12 years ago will do the same work for 2000$, if the alternative is to jump of a cliff. But it will take a financial crash to prepare the minds to face a new reality. Democratic politicians do not have the power to implement measures like these, some external factor needs to be blamed. Several here always predict that finances are going to be a decisive factor. It won’t. Whatever happens to the banking systems, the same human potential will be around to do the job, regardless of the reward, if there is no alternative.
GregT on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 2:24 pm
It took some 4800 men, 5 years to build one of the dams in BC. Using gravel trucks capable of carrying 100 tons of gravel per load. They poured 57 million cubic yards of concrete, comprised of 100 million tons of rock, gravel, and sand. That is one million, 100 ton loads. The conveyor that moved the gravel to be sorted moved 12000 tons per hour and was powered by 4 850 hp engines.
The dam is now in need of billions of dollars in sysmic upgrades, and is not expected to remain intact if hit by a large earthquake. BC is 100 years overdue for a 9.0 magnitude earthquake on the Richter Scale.
Add to that, tens of thousands of transmission towers, tens of thousands of kilometers of transmission lines, turbines, copper, steel, and aluminum, it is not too difficult to figure out that once this infrastructure fails, it will not be rebuilt without a massive input from fossil fuels.
Seagatherer on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 5:10 pm
Hydro dams will be patched so long as there is water to make electricity and a society that needs the electricity. The meme that dams will become useless due to silting is questionable – where is the research, what are its assumptions, is the research very good? I’ve commercially dove many hydroelectric dams over 100 years old and see nothing insurmountable. Dams can and are maintained with bandaids so to speak. So long as bearings and steel are available for routine maintenance, a Francis turbine may indeed last centuries. They are extremely heavily built. Silt may be controlled in many locations by occasionally draining the reservoir.
Arthur on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 9:13 pm
Maintaining a dam requires far less effort than building a new one, as well as creating the boreholes in the mountain.
It seems to me that Canada is really one of the best places to survive on the planet. Hydroenergy, plenty in Canada, is one of the best energy types. In Holland in the fifties Canada was one of the most popular emigration destinations, together with Australia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectricity_in_Canada
Djeez, 59% hydro!
RobertRapier on Mon, 22nd Jul 2013 10:18 pm
“Is RR un-aware that most of the worlds hydropower sites have already been utilized?”
Given that I actually mentioned it in the article, I would say it’s pretty obvious I am aware.