Heinberg: Our Renewable Future

27 Comments on "Heinberg: Our Renewable Future"

Plantagenet on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 4:20 pm 



Its good to know we have a renewable carbon-free future to look forward to. I was beginning to get worried we might be in real trouble after the oil glut ends.

RepublicanfromEngland on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 4:42 pm 



Have you read Mr Heinberg’s book? He sure doesn’t believe in any actual glut.

You should watch some of his old clips, 2004, 2005. He is very indepth about the subject of energy resource extraction and the little left that shouldn’t wasted on missions to the Moon or Mars.

I of course, don’t agree with that, those missions may be a waste, but some knowledge is still to be gained from such an interest.

Apneaman on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 5:35 pm 



Heinberg is now officially a professional optimist.

dave thompson on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 5:58 pm 



Heindberg is an excellent writer and speaker on the topic of PO and depletion. It is hard for me to believe that Heindberg truly thinks that 7.3 billion people on earth will “transition” to a FF free energy system based on renewable and “green” energy applications for industrial civilization. Just plain silly, Heindberg must work for someone paying him to play stupid.

Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 6:10 pm 



Panglossian as always. If you need to mine minerals to build solar panels then it’s not renewable. If you need to smelt iron and pour concrete to build wind turbines then it’s not renewable. Humanity will soon face a population bottleneck via a peak oil/climate change crisis. It’ll be back to the dark ages. Most people will be too weak and intolerant to survive.

Apneaman on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 6:23 pm 



Truth, and like the dark ages there will be NO defence against disease. The changing climate is already creating the conditions for micro organisms to rule once again.

makati1 on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 7:29 pm 



Dave, Maybe he is just pandering to the public that buys his books, like most who write articles/books about the future? Reality does not sell. You can see that by the reactions of some in this forum when you try to point it out to them, even with reliable references.

“Renewables that will actually exist post SHTF will be the kind that existed 10,000 years ago. Sunlight on plants and to warm surfaces. Anything else is ‘snake oil’.

makati1 on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 7:31 pm 



Ap, so true. All the old plagues and scourges are just waiting to reappear when the antibiotics no longer work or are available. This time, it will be billions who die, not thousands or millions.

Apneaman on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 9:22 pm 



Like I’ve always said, the future is coal and eventually the environmental controls, scrubbers, precipitators, will be turned off/not built. This will save on expenses and double as geo-engineering to slow warming slightly (maybe) by increasing global dimming. It will never be officially admitted. Lots of pollution, but no ones giving up industrialization at any cost. Cancers never stop eating. It’s to the last ape standing.

Pakistan turns to coal to keep factories running

http://climatenewsnetwork.net/pakistan-turns-to-coal-to-keep-factories-running/

dave thompson on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 9:56 pm 



makati1, Thanks, you could be right perhaps it is just about Heindberg selling his books and speaking engagements. However,I went over to his site and saw a response by https://disqus.com/by/disqus_oDbrUkDSdd/ sunweb, Heindberg is smart enough to understand this info. Heindberg blatantly ignoring sunweb, makes me think Heindberg works for the Kochs or some “Heritage Foundation” type think tank. Lable me “conspiracy theorist”.

makati1 on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 10:06 pm 



Dave, you may be correct and I may be wrong. After all, it is ALL about money these days. Everything/one is suspect.

Apneaman on Tue, 19th Jan 2016 10:59 pm 



dave, not FF. New donors of the green techno utopian type I’ve heard. Renewables are a multi billion dollar industry too, so they are as likely to bullshit and corrupt as anyone. Big money in hope too, plus it’s natural. Oprah built an empire selling hope – never underestimate it’s power. I would not say Heinberg is completely corrupt – just feeing desperate as most people paying attention (small number) are. I think Heinberg believes that doing something is better than doing nothing even if it means a bit of down playing and forced optimism.

twocats on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 12:19 am 



Yep, I’ve met him and he’s more or less an optimist. In Party’s Over though he was talking about potential complete US grid failure by as early as… 2020 I think it was, and he thought there would be major disruption by 2015. Then GFC kicked leg out from demand for a few years, then Snake Oil happened. Willits is a Transition Town and I think they have actual plans to blow their bridge that leads to SF in case of a societal breakdown. Post Carbon Institute is also playing the long emergency game where you might have fairly localized catastrophic events but the general fabric of global civilization stays together for at least the next 50 years. That’s not completely absurd, even for doomers.

makati1 on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 12:57 am 



twocats, I agree on most of your points except the possibility of some variation of BAU lasting 50 years. Not gonna happen, I’m afraid. Not even close.

Swans only live 20 or so years at best and black swans are likely to fall out of the sky long before that. Some have already been flying that long.

We have built a fragile spiders web we call globalization. Just like a spider’s web, when you touch a small thread, it is felt across the whole web. That is a signal for the spider to come out and eat. In this case, the spider is collapse and the web is being struck at multiple places simultaneously. China, Japan, the US, Canada, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and on and on. A veritable feast for the collapse spider.

I’m 71 and I fully expect to see the collapse and the beginning of the mass extinction of the human species. I hope I am wrong, but…

dave thompson on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 1:19 am 



Good points apneaman, hope in new technology, because well we are smart AND technology will save us, is a driver in many not willing to look at the predicament of industrial civilizations inevitable downfall. twocats, I will go with your assessment, you having met the man, as being an optimist. I question Heindberg still however because he is a very intelligent and well spoken person. All of his writings and commentary for PO are spot on. Heindberg gets it. This is precisely why I question his view and optimism, of some kind of transition to clean green energy. He has to know none of these technologies are available without the continued use and burning of FF. Heindberg has to understand solar panels, wind turbines and the rest are all FF extenders at best and a cruel hoax on the people “optimistic” enough to believe they can be brought to scale. There ain’t nothing in the “pipeline” (pun intended) to replace the power of diesel fuel. Heindberg of all people knows it.

twocats on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 2:22 am 



Hey Makati, good analogy, I can see you’ve been developing your doom-fu like old shaolin masters did: watching nature.

True (mak and dave), I don’t believe any reasonable transition is in the cards, and I’m not sure Post-Carbon does either (in their heart of hearts). “Still at the end of every hard earned day people find some reason to believe” [Springsteen]

As to your point, Well certainly there’s got to be some range between BAU and “general fabric of global civilization”. sure, it might just be a few international military battalions chatting and trading gardening tips and webcasts on “how to convert human remains to oil” at that point, but hey, that’s still global, and somewhat civilization-like :p

GregT on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 3:08 am 



Heinberg’s message was pretty much all doom and gloom a few years back. Doom and gloom doesn’t get much press time. Whether there is any chance of averting a global catastrophe or not at this point, is most certainly up for debate, but that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t try. Telling people that there is no hope left at all, would most assuredly be self fulfilling. Even if it wasn’t true.

theedrich on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 3:25 am 



Another great talk by Heinberg.  This time it was about the downward trajectory of the unrelenting boom-bust cycle, and how wind and solar are, in effect, uncertain expedients because of various factors.  Interesting was his revelation that it costs the U.S. half a trillion dollars per annum — a dispersed cost, of course — to pay for the health/environmental damage of coal.  No one else ever talks about these “externalities.”  Also, only about 22% of all U.S. energy is electricity;  the rest is mostly oil, gas and coal, with some renewables.

Of course, Heinberg did not (and dared not) talk about the demographic snafu.  With our glorious leaders importing energy-hungry ThirdWorlders by the millions, it is impossible for him or anyone else to call for zero population growth (let alone population reduction) without being demonized as “racist” and thrown into the outer darkness.  Of necessity his expositions must steer clear of the non-White elephant in the room.  But the persistent efforts of the Post Carbon Institute to awaken a few Americans to reality must be applauded by everyone with an open mind.

Davy on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 5:07 am 



“Post Carbon Institute is also playing the long emergency game where you might have fairly localized catastrophic events but the general fabric of global civilization stays together for at least the next 50 years. That’s not completely absurd, even for doomers.”

This is entirely within the possible as is a quick mad max. Some people like the board “apocalypse now’er” spews hate and damnation but that is because he wants death and destruction. He lives in a techno fantasy of the mother of all conflicts, of course, with his winners and losers. That belief system is just mental illness in action and should be dismissed as nothing more than cultist.

Humans are an animal of choice through reason and without reason. This makes plenty of scenarios possible. I also happen to be a firm supporter of Heinberg. Not only did he give me great material early on back with his first PO book “Party is over” (I have most of his books) but he continues to reach a segment of the population that can be influenced by “realistic hope” towards vital change. It is obvious many cannot fathom what may be ahead but this does not mean they cannot be reached with a “lite” version. Any seeds we can plant are vital at this point while we still have the capabilities of development.

We can have hope within a collapse process. We can have hope for a few more years of life or if we are lucky more. It is not written anywhere including science we must die as a species soon. The hope we need to squash is the “techno” brown and green. We of course also have to squash the psychopathic elements of capitalism and megalomania in all shades but that is a different discussion. The human exceptionalism manifest destiny of the immortal creature in all its shades is fundamentally wrong and against nature. This includes all main stream religions that have been completely corrupted. “All the above” creeds are what has destroyed the world, green wash included. Anyone who does not acknowledge we have destroyed a once vibrant world and brought our species and most others to the brink is insane.

Technos of all shades are the bain of our species. I tolerate greens because they are introducing good technology that will assist us into the hybrid world of tecno culture salvage and the rebirth of a pre-fossil fuel culture. We have no choice but to salvage what we humans have created and start using nature like we once did. There are no techno options with a future that I can see other than salvage within a hybrid collapse process of decreasing complexity and increasing simplicity. The next phase in the process may be extinction, maybe semi-nomadic hunter gathers, a techno-lite human, and or a blend. We just don’t know. Anyone who makes hard statements in this regards is not seeing the whole picture.

You do not need to be an academic to see this. In fact it is far better to not be a non-academic today going into the collapse paradigm. The majority of the highly specialized academics have been corrupted in some form. The disposition I am talking about is a melding of our spiritual with our rational without a required specialization. I am talking about clarity of vision through and with nature our only salvation as a species. This is not a cultist speaking this is a realist that can see through the insane culture we have created and see we have only one road to follow like it or not and that is within a “natural” evolution and complexity devolution. The sooner we get on that road the better. Heinberg is preaching some good ideas in this regard and for that he deserves the highest respect.

Revi on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 7:17 am 



In order to get people to do what they have to do it’s necessary to be a bit Pangossian. If you sell things as dire then the storm needs to be here in order to get people into the shelter. If you want them to get in there before the storm you have to have snacks and games. We are just before the storm now.

Kenz300 on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 9:49 am 



Fossil fuels are the dirty past……..clean renewables are the future……..

Renewables to Overtake Coal as World’s Largest Power Source, Says IEA

https://ecowatch.com/2015/11/10/renewables-to-overtake-coal/

China Clamps Down on Coal

http://ecowatch.com/2016/01/02/china-clamps-down-on-coal/?utm_source=EcoWatch+List&utm_campaign=9a4c8c1d0e-Top_News_1_2_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-9a4c8c1d0e-86023917

100% electric transportation and 100% solar by 2030

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBkND76J91k

energyskeptic on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 11:22 am 



I’m sure that Heinberg knows better, but he’s working for PostCarbon now, and all organizations must present a hopeful outlook to attract followers. And it’s hard to tell people that modern civilization is going to decline. Such bluntness risks the “backfire” effect, though I can only hope that being able to face going back to the age of wood lends an evolutionary survival edge to those willing to contemplate a dark future and prepare for it

roccman on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 1:55 pm 



“I am talking about clarity of vision through and with nature our only salvation as a species. This is not a cultist speaking this is a realist that can see through the insane culture we have created and see we have only one road to follow like it or not and that is within a “natural” evolution and complexity devolution. ”

Yup – Reading Doors to perception is an excellent read.

None of this was by mistake – just in the short term all one needs to do is look at the spark that lit the economic collapse (that overshoot is being defined by but not discussed anywhere)…i opined years ago here – and others boards that that the fed raised ARM rates step by step just prior to the 2006/7 housing collapse – that set the powder keg off…what we are witnessing is the controlled demolition of the human project. from a cosmological POV – i think the gnostics had it right and i think those with real power subscribe to this cosmology – a nietzche uberman for the few (enter CERN) and a marxist future for those that remain standing. If one wants a fairly concise description of “the plan” once should read “the grand inquisitor” by dostoyevsky – don’t let the christian slant blur the real truth in what is being depicted.

Tom S on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 10:38 pm 



Hi Truth,

“If you need to mine minerals to build solar panels then it’s not renewable.”

Solar panels are made out of silicon and glass, mostly from sand. Why couldn’t we build battery-electric bulldozers and dump trucks to mine the sand? Couldn’t we have dump trucks powered by batteries, which pick up a bunch of sand and transport it to a train powered by overhead wires? Couldn’t the dump trucks recharge their batteries while dropping off the sand, before going back to gather more sand?

-Tom S

GregT on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 11:06 pm 



If you need to mine minerals to manufacture the batteries, that you need to mine the minerals to build the bulldozers and dump trucks, that you need to mine the minerals to build the solar panels, that doesn’t make them any more renewable Tom.

Apneaman on Wed, 20th Jan 2016 11:13 pm 



“Why couldn’t we build battery-electric bulldozers and dump trucks to mine the sand?”

Using current battery technology, the battery would weigh as much as the machinery.

Folks been trying – no breakthroughs yet.

makati1 on Thu, 21st Jan 2016 1:10 am 



TomS, Electric mining equipment? LMAO. How many have you seen in real life? I was in construction for almost 50 years and never saw even one. There is a reason why electric is not used to power huge machinery. It is not practical/profitable.

What is the size battery to run a little electric car a few miles? Suitcase size? Bigger? Now what would it take to move a 20+ ton dozer, plus a 5 ton load in the bucket, the same distance? A battery the size of a car? How many tons would it weigh? How long would it last before it needed recharged? Where would the electric come from to recharge it? Not solar, I am sure. Do the math.

Did you know that you cannot just use any sand to make solar glass? Did you also know that it takes a furnace at ~1,400C. to melt glass, and a bed of liquid mercury to make float (flat) glass or a very long and complicated set of very hot rollers to do the same.

Did you know that to even reuse aluminum for the framework it would take a temperature of 650C and another huge machine to roll out the flat pieces needed.

Here is the melting point of metals:

Metal Celsius (c)
Aluminum 659
Brass 927
Bronze 913
Cast Iron 1204
Copper 1083
Gold 1063
Lead 163
Magnesium 651
Nickel 1452
Silver 951
Steel 1371
Tungsten 3399
Wrought Iron 1482
Zinc 419

http://www.onlinemetals.com/meltpt.cfm

When the Age of Hydrocarbons ends, so does all that depends on it to exist.