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Page added on January 11, 2014
Is Fracking Delaying the Transformation to Alternative Energy?
Internal combustion engines (ICEs), a Shell study predicted last year, will have been replaced completely by electric, hydrogen powered motors by 2070. The effects would be far-reaching not only for the petroleum and liquid gas industries, but also for technology metals, which will play their role in different ways in each of the scenarios:
– As materials for reforming and automotive catalysts in ICEs;
– As membrane materials and reforming catalysts in hydrogen electric motors;
– And as enablers in a multitude of electronic helpers and gadgets surrounding us today in vehicles, small electronic devices and in our homes.
A new report published as an “early release” by the U.S. EIA, the Energy Information Administration which is part of the Department of Energy, seems to contradict this assessment. “Fueled” in part by the abundant availability of now domestically produced crude oil, the United States is likely to be gasoline powered in its majority for decades to come. The EIA predicts that the share of light duty vehicles (LDVs) powered by fuels other than gasoline will decline by only 4% until 2040. 42% of the ICE powered vehicles sold by 2040 are expected to be equipped with “micro hybridization”, features such as start-stop and KERS (kinetic energy recovery system) devices, all of which require permanent magnets, semiconductors and battery materials, of course.
Among the 22% non-gasoline powered LDVs, the EIA predicts, Ethanol will be the front runner at 11% followed by hybrids (5%), diesels (4%) and plug-in hybrids / electric vehicles at about 1% each. The report also contains predictions on fuel prices, miles driven and other parameters – the full version of the report can be downloaded here.
By making these predictions the DOE is not only contradicting the petrochemical industry’s own assumptions. It is also at odds with the findings of a survey of over 200 automotive executives conducted by KPMG annually. While 76% of participants in the study believe that “ICE downsizing is the major focus for the automotive industry,” 69% “consider fuel cell mobility critical for future growth.”
Market sentiment seems to support this view. “Green” is becoming more mainstream in the life of consumers, and a large number of states and municipalities pride themselves of providing a growing infrastructure for charging electric vehicles.
“Consumers have to chose between their conscience, their wallet and their status”, summarizes the KPMG survey. The DOE seems to believe the wallet will win.
Only the future will tell. But whoever is right, there is general agreement on the proliferation of mobile electronic devices in cars and elsewhere, all of which are utilizing technology metals.
14 Comments on "Is Fracking Delaying the Transformation to Alternative Energy?"
Twin Performance on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 6:50 pm
oil will have peaked by 2030 (Total liquids) We will be free of the internal combustion engine by 2070. Soooo 40 years. I guess we go back to horses and carts in the interim. Assuming a horse cart lifestyle can sustain 9 billion. Increasing consumption. Okay I admit I cant see the logic here. If I had cancer now, and died on the day the cure came. I would already be dead. Sounds like civilization has the same problem.
shortonoil on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 7:17 pm
Between 1974 (their inception) and the early 2000’s the EIA did an amazing job. Since then, their performance has deteriorated into the quality of a cheap tabloid. The shale industry is a Ponzi scheme of massive proportions, and it has suckered a multitude of investors into it. It is so disappointing to find a Federal Agency backing an out and out sham. The public deserves better than to be put to bed with the latest fairy tale!
Arthur on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 9:48 pm
Regarding the title: YES!
GregT on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 10:40 pm
Yet one more prediction, with absolutely no basis in reality.
rockman on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 11:42 pm
Even subtracting oil from the shale the world would still be producing a lot of oil. IMHO if any one commodity is holding back the alts it would be coal. Economics control the competition. We are producing a lot more oil these days but it’s 300% higher than 10 years ago. But the price of coal has only increased 75% during the same time period. Consumption may be down recently but during the first decade of this century the world consumed more then during any decade since we started burning coal. And this with China increasing consumption 2.5X during this time and showing not much of a slow down. The US may have added a fair bit of oil to global supplies but we have also increased coal exports to record levels leading the country to be the 4th largest coal exporter on the planet.
Makati1 on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 12:58 am
There are no government agencies left. Only branches of the Ministry of Propaganda. The West is one huge ponzi scheme now. The rest of the world is scrambling to distance themselves from the coming collapse, but the earth is too small. There is nowhere to go.
Kenz300 on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 1:54 am
The price of oil, coal and nuclear keeps rising and causing environmental damage…..
The price of wind and solar keeps dropping every year and it is safe and clean……. once installed there are no monthly fuel bills for 20 or 30 years……
Biofuels can now be made from algae, cellulose and waste or trash driving the cost for biofuels down and making them more competitive……
Electric vehicles are becoming more common, the prices are dropping, the range is increasing and the time to recharge is decreasing.
The transition to safe, clean alternative energy has begun. The high cost to produce the harder to recover fossil fuels means that alternative fuels get more competitive every year.
The increasing price of fossil fuels will meet the decreasing cost of alternative energy sources and that will speed up the transition to safe, clean alternative energy sources.
rollin on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 2:26 am
Even if half the transportation was weened off oil, it would make little difference in the long run.
It is the psychology of destruction for profit that must change or else things will still continue in the same direction.
Stilgar Wilcox on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 3:35 am
“The increasing price of fossil fuels will meet the decreasing cost of alternative energy sources and that will speed up the transition to safe, clean alternative energy sources.”
So in spite of declining eroei of FF, a smooth transition can be made to alt. energy, in which alt. E. will be sufficiently great enough to sustain BAU, provide economic growth, and make more alt. E. for all our energy needs?
Don’t you think that’s just a wee bit cornucopianish?
PapaSmurf on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 5:30 am
Stilgar,
The evidence so far seems to indicate that is exactly what will happen. BAU.
Of course, that type of information is not well received on the PO.com forums, so it would be impossible to have a real discussion here. Everyone gets banned who tries.
Stilgar Wilcox on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 9:06 am
Evidence? Like trillion dollar deficits and QE? If you think it’s possible to make the transition that’s great. My opinion is it’s too late in the game for that, but time will tell.
rockman on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 2:49 pm
Papa – The fact that you’re discussing what you claim would have you banned on this site seems rather inconsistent with the obvious fact that your comment hasn’t been banned. Maybe you haven’t been around these parts lately but the subject you claim is banned here is actually a very common topic.
As far as what will happen…we’ll have to wait and see. Predictions don’t really interest me very much. I tend to focus more on what we know for sure: what is happening. And what is happening today is that fossil fuel consumption, especially coal, is expanding in absolute terms faster than the alts. That may change in the future. But we live in the present…not the future. So yes…BAU is alive and well and fighting to perpetuate itself at every turn.
Makati1 on Mon, 13th Jan 2014 1:02 am
BAU is NOT physically possible on a finite planet. A small percentage of humans enjoyed a once in a planet’s lifetime event. It is over and the last keg is about dry. End of BAU and back to survival as the primary event.
If the fiat currencies around the world were not ballooning by quadrillions every year, the end would be more obvious by now. Soon it will pop and …
GregT on Mon, 13th Jan 2014 1:12 am
While BAU is still APPEARS to be chugging along, the ‘rewards’ from BAU have been in decline for decades.
In the 70s it was normal for a middle income earner to be able to support a family of 5, pay off a mortgage, buy a recreational property, own an RV, and enjoy a family vacation a couple of times a year. All while saving for a lucrative retirement. Today, two middle income earners are needed to pay off a mortgage, most people will never be able to afford a recreational property, 58% of Canadians have no retirement plan, some 40% are living pay check to pay check, and more and more people are going further and further into debt. There is even a growing segment of our society known as the working poor. They hold multiple jobs, but rely on social assistance to put food on the table.
So while on the surface it may look like BAU, there is nothing usual about it. We are in terminal decline.