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Page added on March 3, 2015
If solar has gotten so cheap, why isn’t there more of it?
Why don’t more homes have this sign? Photo: U.S. Department of Agriculture/Flickr.
Some people who worry about peak oil like to point out that renewable energy won’t save us. That is, given the amount of fossil fuels that the world uses today, it would take an unrealistically large increase in the amount of renewables available now to make up the difference as oil, natural gas and coal start to deplete.
So we might as well resign ourselves now to a future of shivering in the dark.
Those same peak oil doomers share what they seem to think is news to the rest of us — namely, that solar panels require oil. Petroleum-based plastics and chemicals go into solar panel components. And of course energy, mostly fossil fuels, is required to make, ship and even install solar panels.
This is somehow supposed to mean that solar power is bogus and that photovoltaics are, in essence, merely a feel-good offshoot of fossil fuels.
“Solar panels are just a way to store oil,” a well known peak oiler once told me. “And if you’re going to store oil, I’d rather just keep a tanker ship filled with crude anchored off the coast.”
Too cheap to meter?
Clever quips from doomers aside, the peak-ocalypse hasn’t come yet. Of course, doomers would remind us that who’s to say an oil shock and economic collapse won’t come next week?
Yet, somehow, worrying about the futility of avoiding peak oil doom hasn’t stopped solar companies from installing new solar at a breakneck pace. Today in America, a new solar array goes up once every three minutes, according to Bloomberg News. By next year, it could be one every minute.
And while solar may still provide a puny percentage of today’s power generation (in 2014 it was still less than one percent), solar panels are getting cheaper so quickly that, barring a doomerish collapse of the global economy, we can expect solar to just keep going down in cost. At some point, lower cost will help solar start to meet a serious amount of the world’s power demand.
During the last five years, says Bloomberg, the cost for solar panels has dropped more than 65% in the last five years, to 70 cents a watt today. Fully installed costs are higher, but they’ve been dropping too.
What’s stopping solar
The main challenge to solar growth may surprise you. It’s not peak oil, of course. It’s not even cheap oil, which has depressed solar company stocks but has done nothing to effect the fundamentals of the solar market — cheaper panels and rising demand.
And while nasty politics may slow solar down in some states, the main barrier to solar growth is not the Koch Brothers lobbying to kill clean energy subsidies through a propaganda campaign whose most outrageous claim must be that solar hurts the poor — which, by the way, it totally doesn’t.
The real problem is not even big electric utilities who continue to drag their feet on installing the big solar arrays it would take to replace their aging coal and nuclear plants.
Because unlike a coal or nuclear plant, a solar plant doesn’t have to be huge and centralized. A 400 megawatt solar farm operated by an electric utility in the Mohave Desert is no more efficient per panel than a 2 kilowatt system on the roof of a bungalow in Las Vegas. Indeed, because solar can fit in lots of small spaces all over the place, you don’t even need a plant at all. That means you don’t have to wait for utilities to get on board. This is the beauty of distributed energy — you can just go around the electric company and become your own DIY utility by putting panels on your roof.
The real barrier to solar’s growth in America today is far less sinister than entrenched energy monopolies, political opponents or cheap fossil fuels: it turns out to be a simple lack of financing.
Solar may cheaper than it was a couple years ago — in some cases, half as much — but putting an array on your home or business roof is still a big-ticket purchase. For most of us, it’s too big to pay for in cash upfront and even too big to put on your credit card.
Show me the easy payment terms
The American consumer economy was built on credit.
Imagine, for example, if you had to pay full price to buy a new car?
Few drivers can afford to hand over a check for $25,000 to a Toyota salesman in order to drive off in a 2015 Camry. But three-to-five year financing at a low interest rate available right at the dealership makes the car affordable. As with cars, so with major purchases for the home: buyers don’t need to pull out a wad of bills to take delivery on a new sofa or refrigerator but can instead take advantage of low- or no-interest monthly payments over six or twelve months.
Today, solar is just starting to get the same kind of easy payment terms.
In the past, if you wanted a solar array on your home rooftop, you pretty much had to hand over that $25,000 in cash that you didn’t need to pay for the dealer-financed Camry. Or, you could go through the effort of applying at your bank for a home equity loan. Even if you qualified, filling out the paperwork for a bank loan was a much bigger hassle than signing up for 90-days-same-as-cash to get a new Whirlpool dishwasher at Lowe’s with same-day delivery.
Now, residential solar installers have begun to offer their own financing on attractive three- or five-year terms with no money down. In some U.S. states, homeowners can even get solar installed on their roof for free by a company which retains ownership of the equipment and sells the power to the homeowner every month, usually for less than what they’d pay to their local electric utility.
Financing is also coming for commercial-scale solar, putting 200 kilowatts or more on rooftops of warehouses, apartment complexes or local government buildings.
Once solar companies can work with lenders to offer better financing, solar is sure to spread much more quickly. At least, that is, until the complete collapse of industrial civilization.
In the meantime, let’s hope the rest of us can get no-money-down photovoltaic or solar thermal systems installed on our rooftops sooner rather than later. Even if renewables will make up for only a small fraction of all the fossil fuels we’ll eventually lose, when the next energy crisis hits, people who have solar will be much happier than those don’t.
19 Comments on "If solar has gotten so cheap, why isn’t there more of it?"
sunweb on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 12:46 pm
Whether it is cheap or not, it isn’t green, renewable or sustainable. The devices that are used to capture the sun and wind’s energy are an extension of the fossil fuel supply system.
There is a massive infrastructure of mining, processing, manufacturing, fabricating, installation, transportation and the associated environmental assaults. There would be no sun or wind capturing devices with out this infrastructure. This infrastructure is not green, sustainable, or renewable. The making of these devices inadvertently but directly supports fracking, tar sands and deep ocean drilling because of the need for this infrastructure.
In addition, the Energy Returned on Energy Invested (ERoEI) is very marginal for all solar devices. It takes years if ever to repay the energy it took to make, install, and maintenance these devices. I have research references for this statement. http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2014/01/energy-return-on-energy-invested-eroei.html
dave thompson on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 12:59 pm
Long term, life of system, including panels (lose 1% per year output), battery arrays (need replacing every 5-10 years), inverter (needs replacement 5 to 15 years of lifespan), install and maintenance costs all add up.
Plantagenet on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 1:11 pm
I have a few wealthy friends who live off the grid here in Alaska and use solar, but they find they have to spend huge amounts of money building back up heating systems and trucking and flying in oil to use to heat their homes during -40 intervals in the winter when the solar isn’t doing the job.
Dredd on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 2:39 pm
Stick with snowballs like Inhofe (Will This Float Your Boat?).
ghung on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 2:47 pm
sunweb: “There is a massive infrastructure of mining, processing, manufacturing, fabricating, installation, transportation and the associated environmental assaults.”
That infrastructure already exists, sun. We also use it to build a lot of other junk that produces nothing but is pure consumption. Why not leverage these things to produce something actually useful, eh? In fact, sun, why don’t you spend your time beating up on golf courses, jetskis and the like instead of picking on solar as your pet peeve? The centralised grid has the same liabilities and is a net energy user requiring ongoing inputs, but you have a solar bone to pick. Silly, indeed.
Dave: We figure $60/month for repair/replacement/upgrades, and have actually accumulated a surplus in that fund. Question: How many other things do people buy that wear out, have to be replaced, and never produce much of anything? Why the fuck do people hold solar to a higher standard than cars, roofs, appliances, electronics, the grid they pay to maintain/upgrade, other utilities, HVAC systems, water heaters….?? Please explain it to me, because it makes no sense.
Plant – Most folks in Florida don’t spend money on snow mobiles either, but I’m sure there are a few,, just in case it snows a bunch.
That said, we have friends who have tracked solar near Juno which produces nicely half the year. They also have wind which produces better in winter. Beats the shit out of the diesel generator they were using.
Tom S on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 2:58 pm
Hi sunweb,
What you are saying is just totally wrong.
“In addition, the Energy Returned on Energy Invested (ERoEI) is very marginal for all solar devices.”
That is entirely incorrect. You are relying upon Charles Hall’s study which is filled with such severe mathematical errors that they invalidate his conclusions. I have already pointed this out to you, several times.
I have also pointed out studies which do not commit the errors of Charles Hall, and which show that solar has an ERoEI similar to fossil fuels. I have pointed out far more rigorous studies than those to which you refer, and which reach conclusions very different from those you indicate.
“The making of these devices inadvertently but directly supports fracking, tar sands and deep ocean drilling because of the need for this infrastructure.”
Solar and wind devices return at least 8x as much electricity as we could have generated if we’d taken the fossil fuels used for building them and just burned those fossil fuels instead. Although some fossil fuels are still required, and will be for at least the next few decades, the amount of fossil fuels per unit of energy is obviously far less (7/8ths less or more) by using renewables than if we had just burned those fossil fuels directly in a power plant.
-Tom S
Tom S on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 3:14 pm
Plantagenet,
“I have a few wealthy friends who live off the grid here in Alaska and use solar, but they find they have to spend huge amounts of money building back up heating systems”
Alaska is approximately 60-70 degrees north of the equator and (during winter months) receives less than 5% of the solar insolation as places closer to the equator. There are some places in Alaska where it is dark for a few months in a row.
The vast majority of people in the world live in places like China and South Asia. The average latitude of human residences is more like 20 degrees, which would provide about 12x as much solar insolation during winter months as Alaska.
-Tom S
dave thompson on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 3:26 pm
ghung, I am neutral on the pros and cons of solar and wind, I am only saying that all things industrial have a lifespan and an energy cost. I will truly be impressed with “alternative” energy devices/outputs when they become self producing. Where are the factories, transportation and mining operations powered solely by wind or solar devices?
ghung on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 3:48 pm
@dave t. – I’ve never said that solar, or other ‘renewable’ strategies will save industrial society. Nothing can do that. My point has always been that folks need to avail themselves of these technologies as much as possible while they can, for a lot of reasons. We don’t know if there will be cottage industries producing some of these things, post collapse, but I expect there will be, or ways found to extend their lifetime of usefulness. Heck, we don’t know how long PV panels last for the most part. My Siemens panels, in constant use since Dec. 1994 haven’t lost the 1% – 2% production capacity per year that you cite; not even close, but, for all I know, they could stop working tomorrow.
In terms of reliability and performance, there’s nothing I can think off that has been a better investment (excepting my education). Nothing. All of my RE gear has been outstanding compared to other technology I’ve employed.
My feeling is that folks need to stop worrying about anything more than how they’ll survive the next 20-30 years. I plan to keep some lights on and have at least a few advantages, pre-paid, so I can spend time and energy adapting to life’s other challenges. If nothing else, it’s good bridge technology to whatever awaits us.
GregT on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 4:06 pm
“The average latitude of human residences is more like 20 degrees, which would provide about 12x as much solar insolation during winter months as Alaska.”
Which unfortunately is not going to last for long. As climate change continues to accelerate there is expected to be mass migrations of people further away from the equator. Of little consequence however, because battery banks only last for about a decade anyways, and solar systems will probably be reaching the ends of their useful lives about the same time as the mass migrations will be in full swing.
dave thompson on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 5:05 pm
I was going by this and using 1% as an average.http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEVj3pPfZUdYUAYrUlnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTEzamFkOTJqBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMgRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1lIUzAwNF8x/RV=2/RE=1425452650/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fenergyinformative.org%2flifespan-solar-panels%2f/RK=0/RS=aWlFcX9EUA60XMLThZG1KrK3DxQ-
Davy on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 5:09 pm
Folks, the G-man is spot on with small end users AltE of any type but in most cases that is solar. If nothing else take care of lighting. Society’s is making a big mistake with AltE is choosing expensive and complex build outs. Residential end users likewise in many cases are trying to fit an AltE system to a BAU setting. If you want to run all those power hungry appliances your are going to overwhelm yourself with the size of your system in many cases. Keep your system niche, simple, low cost, and reliable. If you are like the G-man the get sophisticated if that is your thing. My point is I am a doomer boomer with decent means to invest in my doomsted. I can tell you there is never enough money and there are so many things you can do to prep. At least cover the basics. The basics of AltE are lighting. Get some redundancy in heating like wood. Look at solar water heating. This is about capabilities not total preparations.
ghung on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 6:02 pm
Thanks, Davy, but a system really doesn’t have to be ‘sophisticated’ like mine. Most loads these days (besides big loads like space heating, water heating, electric ovens) are small or intermittent. I put in a simple system for a couple I know: 1 kW PV; 2000 watt inverter/charger; charge controller; some wiring and breakers; 8 golf cart batteries, and they live quite well with that. They run the lighting kitchen mixer, meat grinder, blender, computer, sewing machine, small electronics, laptop, power tools, etc., all of these small loads entirely off of the single 120 volt inverter. They even have a microwave. Their fridge/freezer is standalone solar. Solar hot water; passive solar and wood heat; solar-pumped water. They cook on wood and propane, but use an inductive cooktop when there’s a surplus.
They are just now considering replacing the batteries after nearly 10 years. Their replacement cost will be about $700. Their average usage is under 3kWh/day (from the PV system). Believe me, they aren’t roughing it, and are quite content having their modest needs met. Total cost 10 years ago was under $10k, including the solar refrigeration. Much less today.
I think this is a pretty good model for what we may see as collapse progresses and more folks realise they’ll need to take ownership of their energy production and use, or suffer with declining reliability and affordability of being a grid weenie.
Davy on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 6:18 pm
Alright G, my point is more towards those who are not interested in being off grid. I’m saying do something to those who are doing nothing. You are right though with the system you mentioned above being doable for many. My system is roughly what you described in your comment. I am working on getting my solar power at the barn to my cabin. I am planning on running an 800′ line this summer to make this connection. I will need to step up voltage to do this run.
Makati1 on Tue, 3rd Mar 2015 7:29 pm
FYI:
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/bulgaria-scraps-incentives-new-renewable-energy-installations-312497
http://marketbusinessnews.com/eclipse-of-the-sun-has-european-solar-power-producers-worried/50384
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Electric-Utilities-Face-A-Disruptive-Future.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/26/italy-energy-incentives-idUSL6N0V51F320150126
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/27/sma-solar-redundancies-idUSL6N0V543F20150127
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2015/01/26/as-the-middle-class-continues-to-die-global-oligarchs-plan-their-escape-from-the-impoverished-pleb-masses/
And on and on…
The last one says it all. The dying middle class cannot afford renewables in any useful amount and the utilities cannot afford to subsidize them in quantity.
Lawfish on Wed, 4th Mar 2015 7:55 am
The future as I see it will be people living in smaller, well-insulated homes and drastically reducing their power consumption. By incorporating wood-burning for heat, solar water heating and other passive solar techniques, it will be possible to still live a comfortable existence despite living on 10-15% of the power we’re all used to consuming. We will use clotheslines instead of electric dryers and wood stoves instead of electric. I am working on my off-grid cabin and I intend to ultimately have about 3 Kw of power to run everything (which will include AC). I get that solar PV panels require FF to be made, but for now, they’re made and available, so why not use them to help transition toward the low-power future?
Davy on Wed, 4th Mar 2015 8:36 am
Lawfish, I am following your doomsted move and applaud you. I agree with your description of the future for some and near term. I am doing what you are describing. I have solar, wood heat, 360 sq/ft cabin. I also am connected to the grid. Why not use the grid but build in redundancy along with the grid. In your case it sounds like you have gone into the woods away from a grid connection. I found solar was cheaper to my barn than the electric utility lines. So I went solar with the understanding I will connect my cabin eventually. I am doing this connection as soon as the ground thaws but I will continue to use the grid too.
I want to make a point that is valid to many here. They will be unable to transition to less with less until forced. Many don’t have the money or are locked into a social network that does not condone this alternative living. We need BAU to transition out of BAU. I am a boomer doomer with a respectable nest egg. I am not rich but I have enough money to build a doomsted. This is not cheap. So many that listen to our doom and prep don’t have the time, money, nor the social support.
I don’t think society will easily transition to these alternative lifestyles and physical “prep” preparations. For example I installed wood heat in a shed I am using for canning, wine making, and garden work. That cost $3K. How many can afford that investment. The shed construction itself will be $12K. The woodstove and proper flue piping will take years to pay off considering cheap grid power. But for me it is redundancy. I have so much good oak wood to burn and I am planning on an unstable grid.
I don’t think many can or will make this transition until forced to by crisis. I fear by the time of a crisis it will be too late for much of society to make necessary changes in an orderly fashion. BAU will fail and there will not be the resources of BAU to transition out of BAU normally. Many just are not in the position currently so they won’t prep. Many disregard the message as fringe and extremist. How many have heard end-of-the-world’ers before? Lots.
What I am trying to preach is at least mentally prepare and do some minimum preparations. If you are in a location with no future think about moving. Maybe I am wrong on this collapse so naturally be careful on too drastic a move but be aware of the dangers ahead. Society is doing everything to preach denial of limits and dangers that is clearly wrong and should alarm all those who know better.
Kenz300 on Wed, 4th Mar 2015 1:23 pm
Seems like wind and solar are growing every year..
Solar and wind energy production are expanding around the world. TESLA is building their GIGA battery factory and one of the uses of the batteries that will be produced is for grid storage and to supply his other company Solar City with home energy storage solutions to go with their home solar panels. Wind and solar are the future. They are safer, cleaner and cheaper than Fossil fuel alternatives. We can deal with the cause of Climate Change or we will deal with the impact from Climate Change.
Pope Francis On Climate Change: Man Has ‘Slapped Nature In The Face’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/15/pope-francis-climate-change_n_6477388.html?utm_hp_ref=generation-change
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Utility-scale Solar Has Another Record Year in 2014
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/12/utility-scale-solar-has-another-record-year-in-2014
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Solar and Wind Provide 70 Percent of New US Generating Capacity in November 2014
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/12/solar-and-wind-provide-70-percent-of-new-us-generating-capacity-in-november-2014
GregT on Wed, 4th Mar 2015 9:29 pm
It sure is clear what it is that mankind is addicted to. Power, and stuff.
Maybe now would be a good time to start focussing on other less amazing things? Like food and water.