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Fossil Fuels for Decades and Beyond
The easy thinking flies smoothly off the keyboard: “Fossil Fuels are Done;” “End of the Oil Era;” “The Inevitable Death of Natural Gas;” “The Demise of King Coal;” On and on, a parade of abstractions unconnected to the empirical world but sounding good, nevertheless. Preying on everyone’s wish for a clean, healthy environment, special interest groups push their rhetoric far beyond the reality of what is happening in energy and what will continue to happen in coming decades. Far from being dead, dying, or moribund, fossil fuels are steadily expanding their contribution and keeping billions of people alive all over the world. More people, living longer, living better through fossil fuels.
The hard data tell the tale, and these data are readily available in the latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) by the International Energy Agency (IEA). And by “hard data,” I mean absolute numbers, not the growth percentages frequently used to exaggerate the relevance of non-fossil sources like wind and solar. Here is the reality:
- Over 81% of global energy demand is met by fossil fuels, which provide the equivalent of 11,595 million tons of oil (Mtoe)
- 64% of electricity generation comes from fossil fuels, including 38% from coal and 23% from natural gas
- Liquid fuels from oil provide some 95% of global transportation—moving people, raw materials, finished products and agricultural goods.
More than one writer has hyperbolically averred that the Covid 19 crisis has “forever” changed energy demand and the recent trajectory of onward and upward will never return. But the coronavirus notwithstanding, energy demand will resurge and continue to increase for decades to come. China’s gasoline and diesel consumption are already back to pre-virus levels and daily coal burn at power plants is on the rise as factories reopen. India’s fuel demand “is set to reach pre-coronavirus levels in June” stated Indian Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. Meanwhile, the IEA recently affirmed its projection that peak oil demand is “nowhere in sight.”
Finally, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, put the situation in perspective: “American business consultants using Zoom will not compensate for 150 million new urban residents in India and Africa traveling, working in factories and buying products transported by trucks.” This is the shape of things to come.
Here are some numbers from the latest IEA “Current Policies Scenario” regarding the future role of fossil fuels:
- In 2030, fossil fuels will provide 79% of global energy demand and 13,398 Mtoe
- In 2040, fossil fuels will provide 78% of global energy demand and 14,952 Mtoe
For the record, even in the more ambitious “Stated Policies Scenario” of the IEA, fossil fuels still steadily increase, albeit at a slightly lower rate. Nevertheless, in this alternative scenario, in 2030, 77% of energy demand is met by fossil fuels and, in 2040, the number is over 74%.
It is no surprise that these data receive little or no play in the media. It is much more exciting to write “man bites dog” stories than simply compose the same old, same old, pieces on continuity. Stability and normality do not generate clickbait and obviously do not fit the agenda of those seeking dramatic change, however infeasible it may be. Given this penchant toward hyperbole, it is easy to lose perspective on the role fossil fuels play, and will continue to play, in virtually every society across the world.
The short-term perspectives of the media belie this fundamental fact, but Demography always wins in the end. Well over 80 million people will be added to the global population this year—upwards of a quarter million today alone or a new Philadelphia every week. By 2025, the global population will have increased by over 400 million. If these people were a country, it would be the third-largest nation on earth. President Obama was correct in his assessment of needing “all of the above” even though his policies belied the mantra.
Consider oil—the overwhelming fuel for automobiles, tractors, trucks, airplanes, ships, etc. Demand was about 100 million b/d in 2019 and by 2025 is projected to reach over 105 million. These increases in oil consumption will be the pattern for years to come. The IEA has stated “there is no peak demand on the horizon.” In the next two decades, billions of people will seek to enter the global middle class. The transportation sector will drive more than half of liquid fuels demand and trucks alone will consume 30 million b/d by 2050.
Petrochemical demand will add 7 million b/d. Few people other than Mark Mills recognize that even a 100x growth in the number of electric vehicles to 400 million on the roads by 2040 would displace only 5% of global oil demand. Oil is here to stay.
And now electricity—an area where assumptions about the death of fossil fuels follows the Mark Twain pattern of being “greatly exaggerated.” Electricity is the lifeblood of modern society and global demand for electric power has increased over 125% in the last 30 years, from 11,731 terawatt hours (TWh) in 1990 to 26,603 TWh now. Yet, despite this incredible progress, over one billion people do not have any electricity whatsoever and another two billion have severely limited access—e.g. two or three days a week or several hours a day. Electricity poverty is rampant and for three billion people food is cooked on fires fueled by biomass—e.g., wood or dung. Estimates are that over four million people die prematurely each year from diseases related to indoor air pollution. Given the energy density of fossil fuels, they are the only sources that can scale up to meet this latent demand and pull billions out of electricity poverty.
Fossil fuels, especially coal, have already been the savior of billions of lives by providing electricity for clean water, sanitation, cooking, refrigeration, communication and illumination. China’s dramatic surge of electricity from coal is the best example and why the IEA called coal-based electrification an “economic miracle.” Coal-based electricity was the foundation of this great leap forward not only for China but countries stretching back to the industrial revolution in England.
More recently, global coal generating capacity grew every single year between 2000 and 2019, nearly doubling from 1,066 GW to 2,079 GW. Further, about 500 GW of new coal capacity is either being built or planned. The Current Policies Scenario of the IEA projects that in 2030, 11,464 TWh of electricity will be produced by coal—a 13% increase. To be sure, the construction of coal plants is slowing down throughout much of the world, but the plants that have been put in place over the last decade, as well as those that will be become operational in the next decade, will form a modern, highly efficient core coal fleet that will last throughout the lifetime of many readers of this article.
In other parts of the world, natural gas, coal’s power generation counterpart, is on the dramatic upswing. Gas currently accounts for 6,118 TWh of electricity and by 2030 is projected to account for 8,086 TWh—an increase of 32%. In other words, by the end of the present decade, the combined total electricity generation of coal and gas will be over 19,550 TWh—the equivalent of four times the electric power production of the United States—plus Russia.
Some critics may complain that I use the Current Policies Scenario of the IEA rather than the Stated Policy Scenario. A point well taken, but it is dangerous to deal in political hypotheses stretching out 10,20 or 30 years when the architects of those hypotheses will be long gone and never have to answer for their unfounded exuberance. In fact, the IEA itself cautions that the Stated Policy Scenario merely describes “the direction in which today’s policy ambitions would take the energy sector.”
Regardless, in the interest of fair play, let us note that even in the Stated Policy Scenario coal generation will still increase by 2030 and pretty much plateau by 2040 but certainly not decline. Growth of natural gas-based generation in this Scenario will still be dramatic, increasing from 6,118 TWh now to 7,529 TWh (+23%) by 2030 and 8,899 TWh (+45%) by 2040. Although these data do not fit the preferred story line of many pundits, it is abundantly clear that fossil fuels have been, are now, and will remain, the primary component of energy systems throughout the world.
Note: The IEA also presents a “Sustainable Development Scenario” that some may embrace as feasible. Not me. If one feels that in just 20 years, we can reduce fossil fuel consumption more than 30% while adding 1.5 billion people to the population without condemning several billion children, women and men to permanent energy poverty, our interpretations of the global energy situation are so far apart any interaction is meaningless.
Dr. Frank Clemente is Professor Emeritus of Social Science at Penn State University where he was the Director of the Environmental Policy Center. He has served on the faculty of the University of Wisconsin and the University of Kentucky. His research specialization is the socioeconomic impact of energy policies.
73 Comments on "Fossil Fuels for Decades and Beyond"
Richard Guenette on Thu, 4th Jun 2020 7:01 pm
We should make do with what we have. Less is more.
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 12:08 am
This could be the development that will destroy the planet-killing fossil fuel industry once and for all:
https://www.wattisduurzaam.nl/26862/energie-besparen/transport/onverwacht-steile-prijsdaling-voor-waterstof-elektrolysers/
The Norwegian electrolyser company Nel Hydrogen has sold 5 electrolysers a 17 MW for the incredible low price of $350/kW to the US transport-startup Nikola Motor Company, that will use them to power trucks.
So far the price range was $1000-1500/kW, although Chinese companies were hinting at $500,-
https://nelhydrogen.com/press-release/nel-asa-receives-purchase-order-from-nikola-2/
This also could be bad news for Tesla and will give hydrogen-fueled cars a new lease of life.
Cloggie on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 12:25 am
Offshore wind, the next level. For the first time 11 MW turbines will be used to construct a new 1.52 GW wind park, in case “Dutch Coast South”:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/06/05/vattenfall-will-use-11-mw-turbines-for-next-windpark/
Mick on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 5:11 am
Should be titled (Fossil fuels for this decade and that’s.it)
Cloggie on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 7:27 am
Denmark presents massive 18 GW offshore wind plan:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/06/05/denmark-presents-18-gw-offshore-wind-map/
Davy on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 7:50 am
Needless to say the AmericaDown people like the lunatic juanPee, the cloggo, and mak the wak will be disappointed. Oops, forgot the annoymouse. Damn the bad luck!
“THESE NUMBERS ARE INCREDIBLE” Trump Booms After Job Report Shock: May Payrolls Rose By 2.5 Million, Crushing Expectations Of 7.5 Million Drop”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/job-report-shock-may-payrolls-rose-25-million-crushing-expectations-75-million-drop
“Well, take all that and throw it out of the window, because moments ago the BLS shocked markets when it reported that, contrary to week after week of millions in initial jobless claims, and in line with the much more optimistic ADP report, not only did May payrolls not drop by the 7.5 million expected drop, but actually SOARED by 2.5 million, crushing expectations, and indicating that already in May when the country was under widespread lockdowns, jobs came soaring back.”
JuanP on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 7:52 am
I want my mommy!
Not Davy on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 8:00 am
Davy on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 7:50 am
obv. juanPee. That ZH artical is udder bullshit!
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 8:56 am
“Needless to say the AmericaDown people like the lunatic juanPee, the cloggo, and mak the wak will be disappointed. Oops, forgot the annoymouse. Damn the bad luck!”
Economy well, all well.
The economy is the only category this hard-core materialist will ever know. And that while his country is heading for demographic disaster. This guy can’t be helped.
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 9:19 am
Global overview offshore wind projects:
https://www.offshorewind.biz/projects/
Cloggie on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 11:11 am
Offshore wind the next level.
Siemens-Gamesa presents 14-15 MW offshore wind turbine SG 14-222 DD, the largest to date. Prototype operational next year. Production date: 2024.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/06/05/launch-siemens-gamesa-14-mw-offshore-wind-turbine/
Joe on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 12:44 pm
Hydrocychloroquin study back on as Trump Deranged Doctors faked the danger report.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0605/1145611-hydroxychloroquine-report-withdrawal/
joe on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 12:47 pm
Whether it works or not, we xant have it discounted because trump thinks it might work. If Trump recommends breathing the deranged left would stop.
l on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 1:47 pm
all i want is to say i wish the best to my little small big brother joe supertard
i appointed him president. this is only a title, supertard is the highest real honor and there’s nothing higher.
i urge all supertards to love supremacist muzzies more.
makati1 on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 5:25 pm
Davy, you only wish you were correct and your future will be like your dreams. Do you actually believe the numbers the propaganda mill is spewing every day? Fool!
Asia up! The West (especially Amerika) down! But then the other head will do the same, just in a different way. Third world Amerika has no future. GO TRUMP!
Richard Guenette on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 5:59 pm
Amerika is already Third World.
Duncan Idaho on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 6:09 pm
“We can and must do better than going back to normal. Normal is the problem.”
Davy on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 6:10 pm
“Do you actually believe the numbers the propaganda mill is spewing every day? Fool!”
LOL, of course not, wak, but those kind of numbers are hard to deny. Your Asian numbers are the most unreliable in the world and you believe them. LMFAO
Asshole JuanP socks on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 6:11 pm
stupid mindless juanPee
Richard Guenette said Amerika is already Third World.
Richard Guenette said Amerika as a whole is an asylum.
SocialRevolutionComing said This is the CBC News website on YouTube: https://w…
makati1 on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 6:59 pm
Davy, you are the king of denial. You pick and choose whatever fits your ‘Amerika Number One’ delusions even when it is obvious to even the blind that they are propaganda bullshit to keep you from lynching the whores in Congress, the Federal Reserve whores and the USMSM whores. THEY are the spewer of the lies that are brainwashing the uneducated Amerikans.
Anyway, no amount of denial will change what is happening and Amerika’s future as a 3rd world country. More and more articles, from people outside Amerika, are supporting my assertion. None support yours. Enjoy the trip down the sewer. It will be painful for the unprepared.
China is replacing Amerika all over the world. Adjust!
Anonymouse on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 7:10 pm
Delusional davy thinks it is his ‘job’ to be spokescreature for the unbelievably corrupt and putrid ruling class of the Jewmerikan empire. Which is funny when you consider the excpetionalturd comes from the lowest rungs of that dysfunctional society himself. He calls it ‘neutering’ of course, and it has driven him beyond insanity that he cannot censor, bully or browbeat the intelligent posters off the comments.
The only tools he has, are his endless stalking, socking and ID theft, which he engages in what, 20 hours a day 7 day a week?
Too bad this whole covid things is 99.9% bullshit and calculated hysteria. A genuine pandemic might have given us a chance to be rid of him for good.
JuanP is a lunatic Davy sock on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 7:10 pm
Davy wants his mommy!
LOL!!!
makati1 on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 7:35 pm
Anon, Davy is proof of the saying: “Only the good die young”. There is more proof…Soros, Trump, Kissinger, Killery, Nutandyahoo, etc. Would that they would ALL get the flu and die. The world would be a much better place. But I will settle for just the US being taken down to a level where they can no longer meddle in any other country’s business.
Davy on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 7:50 pm
‘Davy, you are the king of denial.”
I have proved you dumbasses wrong for years now this is why annoymouse and the lunatic juanPee stalk me daily. They are very triggered. As for you wak, you are just an idiot that keeps coming back for more.
REAL Green on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 10:22 pm
The only thing we proved Davy is we need to see a docter. REAL BAD like. We got REAL Serious mentle problems.
Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 3:14 am
This is the future of private door-to-door transport:
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/06/04/tesla-working-on-12-person-vans-for-the-boring-company/
“Tesla Working On 12 Person Vans For The Boring Company”
The same transportation effort realized with far less vehicles, making superfluous private car ownership that stands by idle 97% of the time anyway and has an average occupation rate of 1.25, causing cities full with parked cars and endless traffic jams.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxFRVkMYWOE
This model of transport can deal with declining income levels (and resources). You don’t need to own a car to get somewhere. You only need a mobile phone to order a driverless taxi and a meager bank account.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 6:33 am
“This model of transport can deal with declining income levels (and resources). You don’t need to own a car to get somewhere. You only need a mobile phone to order a driverless taxi and a meager bank account.”
cloggo, these things are done now with people at not much more expense. People that can make a living instead of home on a couch with a socialistic basic income not doing shit. Your technology is wasting huge sums of money pursuing this AI car culture. It is an Ecco shame. I go to clean technica some because on rare occasions they have some good renewable info. Most of it is fake green EV religion bullshit of the rich fake green liberal. Half the time they are whining over there about Trump instead of talking green issues. The site should rename itself “Fake Green Technica”. That is all you are. You want to green wash tech and that is Fake Green.
REAL Green on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 6:40 am
Were not real Green eather Davy. Were just as fake as anybody else. At least cloggo is looking for ways to change the system. All we do is whine.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 6:53 am
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 6:40 am
“Were not real Green eather Davy. Were just as fake as anybody else. At least cloggo is looking for ways to change the system. All we do is whine.”
I am greener than both you or cloggo, juanPee. You could give a shit about anything green and cloggo is just a techno optimist digging a hole with more of the same fake green talk. Of all on this board you are the worst because you think because you got your nuts cut that gives you the right to pollute. You are disgusting selfish prick.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 6:55 am
JuanP on Fri, 5th Jun 2020 10:22 pm
“The only thing we proved Davy is we need to see a docter. REAL BAD like. We got REAL Serious mentle problems.
I have told you this for years now juanPee. Go into therapy and get on some medication.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 6:56 am
Oops, sorry for getting all triggered and losing our widdle temper again y’all.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 6:58 am
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 6:56 am
“Oops, sorry for getting all triggered and losing our widdle temper again y’all.”
It sucks getting moderated, juanPee. Expect more today!
REAL Green on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:05 am
juanPee is not even online. He’s likely working like most farmers do in the mornings.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:08 am
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:05 am
“juanPee is not even online. He’s likely working like most farmers do in the mornings.”
JuanP is always online 20/7. He stalks and does socks and ID theft in his mental illness. JuanP does not have a farm or a sailboat. He is not a yoga instructor. He is an asshole.
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:12 am
I will not be commenting for a while on the moderated side. Me or my sock C8. We are chronically depressed and will instead do mindless shit on this side.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:12 am
Oops, sorry y’all for getting all triggered and losing our widdle temper again. Gotta go now. Us farmers are real busy and we got lots of work to do.
REAL Green on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:17 am
Yeap Davy. And permaculturalism means even more hard work and less time to do stupid stuff like hanging out on the Internet all day long every day.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:20 am
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:12 am
“Oops, sorry y’all for getting all triggered and losing our widdle temper again. Gotta go now. Us farmers are real busy and we got lots of work to do.”
juanPee, you just said that?? Lunatic. You must be REAL messed up. You know nothing about farming. You live in a condo on the beach.
REAL Green on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:22 am
We live in the shack Mommy donated to us.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:23 am
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:17 am
“Yeap Davy. And permaculturalism means even more hard work and less time to do stupid stuff like hanging out on the Internet all day long every day.”
Yea, this is true and this is why you claiming to have a farm, community garden, and engaged in permaculture is a lie. You live on the beach in the most densely populated hell hole and earth with rich lazy assholes fucking off and think yourself green. You are a lie juanPee.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:26 am
I really should get some work done now. The day is not getting any younger.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:30 am
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:26 am
“I really should get some work done now. The day is not getting any younger.”
JuanP, go surf or paddle board. You so out of shape. Maybe that hernia you had permanently damaged you physically. We know your mind is damaged by the mindless shit you do here. I am cutting hay, splitting wood, and moving cows today. I am having breakfast now an enjoying moderating you.
Not Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:36 am
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:30 am
I have work to do. All posts under my handle from now on are stupid fuckwack juanPee.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:45 am
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:36 am
“Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 7:30 am
I have work to do. All posts under my handle from now on are stupid fuckwack juanPee.”
I am going out soon juanPee. I will start by feeding the chickens. I will split wood after that. At around 11:00am the dew will have burned off and I will cut hay. You run along to the beach and play with Boney Joe.
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 10:41 am
As a permaculilturistic expert I have to say cutting hay is one of the most difficult and time consuming jobs. It takes me roughly 8 hours to cut and stack a half acre. If the scythe is real sharp. A lot of that time I spend resharpening the blade. The pollens in hay dull and gum up the scythe real quick.
Moving cows is real hard work too. Most folk around here still use forklifts. I do everything by hand. No fossil fuels can be used in permaculture. Obviously.
BeeG Muzzie Lova on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 10:56 am
i promote supertard Davy to president. This promotion is in title only, supertard remains the highest honorific title with all rights and privileges that are irrevocable by me.
this promotion is in recognition of his contribution in the field of permacultism
I also promote the following supertards to presidents
Duncan Ohio supertard president
AVH supertard president3
I previously promoted little small big brother joe supertard to president
all their titles are “the lover” (of muzzies).
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 11:03 am
JuanP on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 10:41 am
“As a permaculilturistic expert I have to say cutting hay is one of the most difficult and time consuming jobs. It takes me roughly 8 hours to cut and stack a half acre.”
Maybe a dumb fuck like you but it takes me 3 hours to organize equipment, cut it, rake/bale, and pick it up and store it.
“If the scythe is real sharp. A lot of that time I spend resharpening the blade. The pollens in hay dull and gum up the scythe real quick.”
STFU, lunatic, you have never used a scythe. You live in Miami Beach in a condo and JO most of the day in between doing your blow.
“Moving cows is real hard work too. Most folk around here still use forklifts. I do everything by hand. No fossil fuels can be used in permaculture. Obviously.”
Moving cows is easy and for me they are like pets. I have a rotational grazing setup. The cows are ready to move because they like new grass.
Asshole JuanP Sock on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 11:05 am
BeeG Muzzie Lova on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 10:56 am
Mods, shitcan the lunatic please!
Lunatic Davy Sock on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 11:15 am
Asshole JuanP Sock on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 11:05 am
Mods, shitcan the asshole please!
Beeg Supremacist Muzzies Lova on Sat, 6th Jun 2020 11:47 am
whitey old tard held sign say close guantanamo out of love for supremacist muzzie
whitey got pushed by cops who love muzzies a lot.
cops got charged, cops resigned en masse.
i promote the old whitey tard to supertard president. his title is “the lover” (of suprmeacist muzzies)