Peak Oil is You
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Page added on September 27, 2018
Forget Peak Oil. Peak energy demand is more likely
It can be hard to get your head around just how much energy the world uses. Expressed in terms of oil, it was equivalent to almost 14 billion metric tons of the stuff in 2017. That’s like burning through all of Russia’s proved reserves in the space of 12 months, which is, in technical terms, a lot.
But there’s an even trickier issue to ponder: What does it even mean to “use” energy? Granted, that sounds like something you might hear from a stoner at the engineering faculty. But it’s an increasingly important question as renewable energy and electrification expand.
Harry Benham, an oil-industry veteran who now runs Carbury Consulting, wrote an elegant blog post this summer about the fundamental difference between thermal energy — mostly from burning stuff or splitting atoms — and what he calls the “universal energy” captured in wind and solar power. While earlier shifts, such as swapping wood for coal, are often called energy transitions, they were really substitutions of one thermal source to another. But wind and solar “are different energies in kind, not degree.”
The big thing here is waste. Broadly speaking, when you burn a gallon of gasoline, perhaps only a quarter of the energy released actually goes into turning the wheels. The rest is wasted, mostly as heat. In other words, you buy roughly four gallons of gasoline to get the useful energy of one. Renewable energy doesn’t work that way, with wind turbines or solar arrays effectively capturing energy from the ether. Yes, they only convert a portion of the energy hitting them into electricity, but that energy is infinite and hasn’t had to be mined or pumped and transported.
This presents an apples-and oranges-problem for statisticians. Here are projections of global primary energy demand in 2040 from BP Plc and the International Energy Agency:
Different Worlds
Global energy demand in 2040 looks very similar from BP’s and the IEA’s perspective, except for when it comes to renewable sources
Source: BP, International Energy Agency
Note: Projected global primary energy supply in 2040 in billion tonnes of oil equivalent.
The estimates for thermal energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power are very similar. The “other renewables” bars are different largely because BP excludes some non-traded fuels that the IEA measures.
The really interesting difference concerns hydro, solar and wind power. BP’s higher figure isn’t because it is more bullish on these. Rather, in order to make the renewables figures comparable with the ones for fossil fuels and nuclear power, BP grosses them up as if they also produced waste energy. The IEA doesn’t do this, so its figure represents just the energy derived from a solar panel, wind turbine, or hydro plant. The IEA figure is 36 percent of the BP one, similar to the 38 percent conversion factor BP uses to adjust the data.
There are pros and cons to both approaches. The IEA’s reflects the fundamentally different nature of renewable energy, but at the cost of making its share of the market look very low: Solar and wind are 11 percent of BP’s mix in 2040 but less than 4 percent of the IEA’s.
By far the biggest element in both forecasts, though, is the one you can’t see: waste.
Here are BP’s projections, but with a few adjustments. First, I’ve grouped them into thermal sources (oil, gas, coal, nuclear, biomass and biofuels), hydro power, and wind and solar power. Then, I’ve assumed a flat conversion efficiency of 38 percent for the thermal sources (i.e., the amount of useful energy they produce). This is in line with BP’s assumed average for thermal power plants and is used across the board for the sake of simplicity:
Up In Smoke
The biggest part of our projected primary energy demand, more than half, is just waste
Source: BP, Bloomberg Opinion estimates
Note: Assumes 38 percent conversion efficiency for thermal primary energy sources.
The numbers aren’t exact, but the picture is clear: Perhaps 60-70 percent of what we call primary energy isn’t usefully consumed at all.
That’s a moot point when fossil fuels plus nuclear power dominate. Their sheer energy density (the power they pack into a small volume) combined with, in the case of fossil fuels, inconsistent or absent pricing of greenhouse-gas emissions, has made them dominant. Waste heat just comes with the territory.
But as renewable energy falls in cost and makes inroads, especially in conjunction with increased electrification of things like heating and transportation, it becomes a far more interesting issue. Consider an electric car being charged mostly with power from renewable sources. If it replaces a car running on gasoline, then it doesn’t just displace the useful gallon turning the wheels, but also the other three that were just making the radiator do its job.
In his blog post, Benham proposed a thought experiment, shifting some estimates around on energy consumption and the growth of solar and wind power. Using my broad assumption on conversion, BP’s projections imply useful energy demand — that is, excluding the implied waste — growing by almost 1.2 percent a year from 2020 to 2040. Hydro power grows by about 1 percent a year (it’s hard to build dams everywhere) and solar and wind together by an average of just under 7 percent a year (front-loaded and down from 20 percent in the previous decade).
Now plug in more aggressive numbers for wind and solar, growing at an average of 10 percent instead through 2040 and dropping to 7 percent in the next decade (leaving everything else unchanged):
More Is Less
More aggressive growth projections for solar and wind power point to an intriguing possibility: Useful energy demand rising, but “primary” demand, including thermal waste, falling
Source: BP, Carbury Consulting, Bloomberg Opinion calculations
Note: Assumes 1.16% CAGR for useful energy demand; 1% for hydropower; 10% for solar/wind. Thermal includes fossil fuels, nuclear and biomass/biofuels. Waste implied by 38% conversion factor.
In case it needs to be said, this isn’t supposed to be an accurate picture of the future. The point is to show how renewable energy, at higher penetration, subverts the way we think about the world’s energy consumption. By displacing not only useful thermal energy but also the waste, renewable sources add to the overall level of useful energy while simultaneously slowing and even reversing the growth in primary energy consumption.
A growing world economy and population coupled with flat or even falling primary energy demand might seem paradoxical. But we’ve seen it happen already in the U.S. and some other countries (see this recent analysis by Nikos Tsafos at the Center for Strategic & International Studies).
At the very least, the rise of renewable sources means we should be thinking about “useful energy” as a way of adding up our needs rather than just “primary energy.” Competition from renewable technologies, coupled with higher electrification, represents a decisive break with the past. All that primary energy that isn’t actually being used is like a target on the incumbent system’s back; especially as, for some fuels, it also serves as a metaphor for more pernicious forms of waste, such as carbon dioxide. As with any other industry, such excess invites disruption.
78 Comments on "Forget Peak Oil. Peak energy demand is more likely"
boney joe on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 9:19 pm
Anus-
Firstly, why do you presuppose I was addressing you in my follow-up post? Secondly, if you fail to realize the second listing is more comprehensive, that’s your problem.
Lastly, yes, Republicans do commit sex crimes by a 3:1 margin over Dems. Worst is the disgusting hypocrisy of Republicans later discovered to be a homosexual or guilty of sex crimes who hide behind and support superficially religious organizations as a badge of purity, and anyone else is a Godless Democrat and second class citizen.
I find your interest and support of the American right-wing odd. I worked for a British based company for most of my professional life. Never did I encounter a Brit with your level of interest in American politics. Never once did I encounter a Brit so overwhelmingly supportive of American right-wing politics. The British are far more practical, moderate, and level-headed.
boney joe on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 9:20 pm
I meant to write “Antius”, not Anus.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 12:43 am
If the shoe fits Joe……
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 2:46 am
“Lastly, yes, Republicans do commit sex crimes by a 3:1 margin over Dems”
You got a reference dumbass? How about independants…lol. what a lunatic. Get a room with anonymouse1 (gimp).
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 2:48 am
Macron vows to punish European states that refuse to accept migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/09/frances-macron-vows-to-punish-european-states-that-wont-accept-mass-muslim-migration
So much for acting populist.
I understand your sentiment but it is different as it seems. Macron definitely is an EU-groupie, he wants to strengthen the organisation, increase its budget, wants an EU-army and wants everybody to comply to EU rules, including Eastern Europeans. But that does not mean he intends to drag in every African he can lay his hands on.
In fact France since 2015 took in far less “refugees” than Germany. It was his idea to set up asylum application centers in Africa to avoid reaching anybody travelling to the EU illegally over sea. It was him who reached agreements with the Mali government to use their army to intercept human traffickers:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/mali-massaker-bringt-eu-in-bedraengnis-a-1230213.html
A few thousand Africans do indeed reach European shores but their numbers are insignificant. The real bleeder was the Balkans in 2015, but political incorrect Balkonians (is that a word?) sealed that route off effectively with fences, against protests from the witch in Berlin.
After 3 weeks of travelling through Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia I didn’t see any serious numbers of invaders anywhere. The territory is basically 99% white and has no intention of changing that.
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 3:22 am
This is far more worrying than Macron:
“Global Migration Compact”
UN latest brain fart. The UN wants migration to become a fundamental “human right” and everybody can live anywhere. Deal to be signed in December in Morocco.
https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/migration-compact
The UN showing its true colors: they see themselves as the world government and any competitor government needs to be abolished. What a nightmare this is, because they all will come to either America or Western Europe.
High time for Europe to leave the West, withdraw from the UN and turn to Eurasia, once the populists are strong enough.
boney joe on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:51 am
I provided the source once before or have you suddenly developed a convenient case of amnesia Neutral-Balanced Davyturd? You haven’t forgotten- just one more of a long list of lies from the perennial hypocrite. Even after providing the source, you failed to read the information and just moved on to another partisan attack.
Look no further than within, Davyturd, to see the sexual perversion and filth that has infected the Republican party.
p.s. This week, the appeals court upheld the pedophilia conviction of Republican Speaker of the House of Reps., Dennis Hastert.
Antius on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:55 am
Not really seeing the 3:1 ratio here ‘Boney Joe’. In fact, both sides of your political system have had plenty of embarrassments.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_political_sex_scandals_in_the_United_States
I bet that every single one of us has had some incidents in our past that would look unflattering in a media investigation. Bad dates as teenagers; jilted ex-girlfriends; relationships that ended badly, etc. Much of it is just part of the rough and tumble of life. It isn’t a very neat and tidy process.
What does strike me as different about the left portion of the political spectrum, is their utter spite. The lack of conscience with which they trawl through their opponents private lives looking for things they can ruin them with. They do not seem to care about whose lives they ruin so long as it gets them what they want. I do see the same thing on the right of the political spectrum.
Antius on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:58 am
Meant to say ‘I do not see the same thing on the right of the political spectrum’. Damn touch screen.
Antius on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 5:01 am
“The UN showing its true colors: they see themselves as the world government and any competitor government needs to be abolished. What a nightmare this is, because they all will come to either America or Western Europe.”
If it happens, it will be the end of nations and hence, the end of civilization. Left-wing idealism really is destroying the entire world now. The more unworkable something is, the more they seem to like it.
DerHundistLos on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 5:55 am
Here’s a fine example of Republican pedophilia EN MASSE that impacted my family directly by causing my nephew who was viciously abused by Republican perverts to commit suicide:
Watch the shocking Discovery Channel/ITN documentary posted to YouTube titled, “Conspiracy of Silence” about the widespread sexual abuse of the boys at Boys’ Town by numerous national Republican politicians and wealthy Republican donors (Note: my nephew was sexually abused by these Republican perverts when he was 14/15 and was so disturbed that he committed suicide at age 17).
You will hear former Republican Nebraska State Senator and chairman of the state committee charged with investigating the affair, Loran Schmit, state that the pedophilia reached the highest levels of the Republican Party. Despite tremendous pressure from the Reagan Whitehouse and RNC to bury the scandal, Senator Schmit refused to be intimidated. The senator was so shocked and disgusted by the findings of the investigative committee that he resigned from the Republican party and returned to farming. Thank you, Senator Schmit, for your integrity.
The Republican National Committee attempted to whitewash the Boys’ Town scandal by purchasing the documentary’s publication rights for a monumental sum; fortunately, a few copies were leaked before the evidence could be destroyed. Sadly, few people are aware of the Boys’ Town tragedy, which is why I am doing everything possible to make the public aware of the facts.
Here is the YouTube address for the documentary, “Conspiracy of Silence” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DquLnRycZms
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 6:13 am
If it happens, it will be the end of nations and hence, the end of civilization.
If that were true, the USSR would not exist anymore. But it did manage to get rid of leftism, because they had no choice. Leftism is like being on top of a mountain and going downhill on a bicycle, freewheeling and effortless, while yelling for joy. But the end of that joy is in sight once you have arrived at the deepest point in the valley. We’re almost there. Expect South-Africa and parts of the USA to be the first to “snap” and it ain’t going to be pretty.
The West will break up, probably in massive violence. But…
Every new Golden Century begins with a good war, provided you win it of course.
https://goo.gl/images/rti9XC
– Spain: throwing out Muslims (always a good idea) from Spain
– Netherlands: throwing out Spanish from Holland, 80 Years War
– France: Louis XIV and Napoleon, won many wars
– Britain: defeating Napoleon at Waterloo
– USA: destroying Europe
You better start liking war, because that is what we are going to get, on our own turf.
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 6:16 am
“If that were true, the USSR would not exist anymore.”
Should be:
“If that were true, Russia would not exist anymore.”
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 6:45 am
“I provided the source once before”
No good sloppy joe, if you are going to spout off numbers like that then you give references. You are an extremist scum so your words are slimy and fraudulent.
“Look no further than within, Davyturd, to see the sexual perversion and filth that has infected the Republican party.”
Great, sloppy joe, Republicans are bad. When have a tried to protect them? You are the one protecting Democrats and slandering the Republicans and that is what I am after. You can’t expect us to believe this is a one way street of bad can you? LOL. What an idiot extremist. I tis well known the Clintons have some baggage. I am sure there are pedophiles among the Democrats.
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 6:48 am
“– USA: destroying Europe”
More like Europe destroying itself and the world over 6 centuries.
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 7:19 am
“– USA: destroying Europe”
More like Europe destroying itself and the world over 6 centuries.
It were Uncle Schmull’s water carriers Anglos and Soviets who destroyed Europe and its empires, all by intent. The Soviets rolled over and died in 1991 and now you are next. I give you 10 years max. until CW2 and we can finally get rid of you by breaking you apart.
I do agree that discovering America was the stupidest, most destructive thing Europe did and continental European support for American independence wasn’t too bright either. But what can you do, the British wanted it all for themselves.
Fortunately, people like you are unable to sustain higher civilization without pissing your civilization away and turn in a third world “civilization”.lol
The past 6 centuries were an improbable rise of science, technology and economics, all thanks to Europeans. They build a civilization that set the standards for everybody else on this planet, a civilization everybody wants to live in, if they get the chance.
Second hand Europeans like you can only watch this in envy, while you drown into the third world, while you are held under water by Uncle Schmull until you stop breathing.
You can have him Anonymouse1, Donad J. Chimp, Kenz300… Davy won’t fight anyway, all he cares about is money. Just call him a “racist” and already he will give you all his money.
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 7:50 am
“I do agree that discovering America was the stupidest, most destructive thing Europe did and continental European support for American independence wasn’t too bright either.”
It has been shown that the Native American populations were likely around 112MIL and as many as 90% of hardest hit populations were destroyed over the next few centuries. You then need to add to this the destruction of cultures in Asia and Africa and we see What Europeans have wrought on the world. Europeans are a pestilence and yea, I am a European from ancestory.
“How Many People Were Here Before Columbus?”
https://tinyurl.com/y92j2vqu
“Population history of indigenous peoples of the Americas”
https://tinyurl.com/nkrfx8c
“The past 6 centuries were an improbable rise of science, technology and economics, all thanks to Europeans. They build a civilization that set the standards for everybody else on this planet, a civilization everybody wants to live in, if they get the chance.”
European way of life is destroying the planet and we have science to explain that to us. Most major economic “isms” are European and the Europeans perfected sky daddy worship killing.
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 9:33 am
CLogg
Berlin after WW2
https://i.redd.it/dxhgvr3ofcp11.jpg
Just wait till we hit Moscow and Iran next! It won’t be pretty!
And your going to have even more migrants coming to Europe!
LMFAO!
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 9:52 am
Davy
Zerohedge has a ton of BS, funny how the most apocalyptic news sites have the most ads..
You are as dumb as they come..Just like clogg
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 10:22 am
“JPMorgan Sees Full-Blown US-China Trade War In “New Baseline”; Could “End US Stock Market Rally”
https://tinyurl.com/yd458x94
“As a result of this full-blown trade war escalation, JPM has revised its China-related forecasts, expecting only a modest hit to Chinese growth – thanks to offsetting fiscal and monetary stimulus – however it now sees a far steeper devaluation in the Chinese Yuan relative to Wall Street consensus, one which will impact the rest of the EM space; finally the trade war is still expected to have only a negligible impact on the US economy, resulting in a 0.2% decline in GDP and 0.3% in core inflation. To wit: full tariffs would reduce Chinese real GDP growth (currently 6.7% yoy) by 1%, but to offset this authorities will provide additional fiscal stimulus (augmented fiscal deficit rises from -10.8% of GDP in 2018 to -11.3%) & looser monetary policy (3 cuts in reserve requirements versus a previous forecast of 2). These offsets would “almost fully compensate for tariffs” and as a result the bank cuts its 2019 China growth forecast only 0.1%, from 6.2% to 6.1%; looser monetary policy and less/no intervention should allow greater CNY depreciation of about 4.5% trade-weighted in the next 12 mths, corresponding to USD/CNY at 7.01 in Dec 2018 and 7.19 in Sep 2019; negligible reductions of 0.2% on US growth and 0.3% on core inflation.As part of this revision, JPM cautions that “looser Chinese monetary policy ensures that the U.S. dollar will become an ever-higher yielder versus the renminbi for the rest of the cycle”, as the yield gap will favor the dollar thanks to further Federal Reserve tightening. The cheaper yuan will also drag emerging Asian nations’ currencies lower with it, as it would be “tough for EM Asian currencies to rally if the renminbi depreciates further.” In terms of asset price impacts, these Asian currency declines “are possible constraints on regional equities,” JPM predicted, although it does see base metals prices gaining into 2019 thanks to reduced inventories.”
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 10:28 am
CLogg
Berlin after WW2
https://i.redd.it/dxhgvr3ofcp11.jpg
Just wait till we hit Moscow and Iran next! It won’t be pretty!
Absolutely!
Now how can we bring the US into war with Russia (and by implication with China)… and bring Europe in a situation that it can choose whose side to join (as if that is still not decided upon.lol)…hmmm
Oh wait, the solution just offered itself:
https://www.rt.com/usa/439967-us-navy-blockade-russia-energy/
ROFL
It has been shown that the Native American populations were likely around 112MIL and as many as 90% of hardest hit populations were destroyed over the next few centuries. You then need to add to this the destruction of cultures in Asia and Africa and we see What Europeans have wrought on the world. Europeans are a pestilence and yea, I am a European from ancestory.
I would agree with you that you are a pestilence, empire Dave, but don’t you dare equating Europe and America. America, that is the underclasses of Europe, poor folks, “huddled masses”, who couldn’t make it in Europe and were looking for free land which they could acquire by merely whacking an Indian with a gun. Americans are the quint-essential anti-Europeans…
https://radixjournal.com/2018/01/america-a-view-from-the-french-new-right/
…folks who thought they were better, but weren’t and who are now facing ruin, all by there own making. Just read the posts on this board to get a good impression of the level of American despair.
America, that has a per capital prison population 10 times higher than Europe, America that is the world’s top producer and consumer of soul killing porn, America that has an obesity rate of 40%. And fools like mobby millimind in all earnest think that he has a chance against Eurasia, after getting his ass kicked by the likes of North-Vietnam, Iraq and Syria and where behind his back the US is about to engulf in CW2 between white right and mixed left.
You have no idea how much America is hated around the world. Nobody has any illusions about Washington’s intentions any more.
WW3 is coming, let’s prepare for it, a war that will destroy the US empire and globalism once and for all.
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 11:10 am
Davy
Give it a rest with your doomber click bait from the hedge..Ever notice the most apocalyptic news sites have the most ads?
You are an uneducated moron..
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 11:12 am
Clogg
Did the Oil Price Boom of 2008 Cause Crisis?
https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/04/03/did-the-oil-price-boom-of-2008-cause-crisis/
Peak oil caused the 08 crash, they dragged it out a few years by creating money, lowering the interest rate, and dumping cash down the sinkhole that is fracking, but the collapse process has already been initiated..
Buckle up ugly, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride..
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 11:18 am
Notice how IamlowIQ is unable to understand what I posted. I love challenging intellectually light kids like him that act like they know it all.
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 11:26 am
IamlowIQ, PO did not cause the 08 crisis. You think PO is the cause of everything kind like Trump is responsible for all the political problems. What an intellectually shallow kid. What is hilarious is your boasting about you PHD. ROTFL. I bet it was a $1000 online deal you did for 6months. Couldn’t find a job with it so you started selling phones for ATT. They fired you for bad attitude and now you are an antifa pretender and PO dot com noise maker. That’s how I see it. You may just be mentally ill and living in a psych ward where your limited free time is spent here pretending.
Antius on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 11:42 am
“Peak oil caused the 08 crash”
Amongst other things. As I said before, the crash of 2008 was caused by several contributing factors. Peak oil increased the systematic stress on an already fragile economic condition.
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 12:20 pm
Davy
Let me educate you because I know you are an ignorant uneducated hick..
11 out of the last 12 recession have happened after an oil price spike..Including our last five (08,00,90,80,73)..
Source: Hamilton (2009)
https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/causes-and-consequences-of-the-oil-shock-of-2007-08/
Source: IEA
http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/high_oil04sum.pdf
Source: IMF
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/
I rest my case..
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 12:31 pm
Duhhh, Iamadummy, so you are saying oil was the only contributing factor? How about explaining that one so we can have a big laugh. BTW your references are empty. They are also sloppy. Proper posting of references is title with quotations, Link, and then if you have a little bit of a brain give us some content so we have an idea of the point. If we would like to go deeper we can read the whole article. What you need to do is read the whole article because it is obvious you just read titles and post them and then say “see how smart I am”.