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Page added on July 2, 2018
EVs Alone Could Peak Oil Demand In The Late 2020s
Equipment and machinery are seen on the production line at the second phase of the Chery Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Co. plant in Changshu, China, on Wednesday, June 27, 2018. Jaguar Land Rover is planning to build an electric vehicle in China as the iconic British manufacturer steps up its game in a fast-growing market where other luxury marques from Audi to Mercedes-Benz are plowing money to gain leadership. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
Potential demand displacement from electric vehicles could peak oil demand sooner than expected, according to the latest research. In order to achieve global decarbonisation goals however, it’s going to be necessary to address other oil hungry sectors like aviation, shipping and petrochemicals.
Research group Carbon Tracker has been arguing for some time that the shift towards electric vehicles could have a more rapid impact that most analysts are projecting. Carbon Tracker’s New Energy Strategist Kingsmill Bond argues that change in the market are likely to follow the development path of energy technologies like wind and solar. Global incumbents from fossil fuel companies to international agencies have continued to under-forecast the growth of renewables year on year for a long time.
It could be argued that they are denying the potential threat of new technologies but its far more likely that incumbents have a blind spot when it comes to existential threats. According to Bond, three to four years of current growth rates could result in all incremental growth in energy demand could come from non-fossil fuel sources. That’s a time frame that few incumbents are equipped to manage.
Carbon Tracker’s latest report Electric Vehicles: The catalyst to further decarbonisation finds that 2 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil demand could be displaced by EVs in the 2020s. While small in stature, this volume of oil can result in disproportionately large levels of disruption to the industry; it was a 2mbd imbalance in supply/ demand that resulted in the 2014 oil price crash. In a feasible, worst-case scenario for the oil and gas industry, 8mbd of oil demand is at risk from EVs by 2030.
The simple fact is that the size of the global EV fleet is the most significant variable determining the potential displacement of oil demand. While EV’s many not be fully sustainable if powered by fossil-fuel electricity, the reality is that oil is rarely used in power generation today. Even if electricity is fossil-fuel powered, it’s the oil industry that will suffer with electrification of the fleet. This will become even more stark as much demand growth is expected to come from the developing world. Such markets are taking significant interest in EVs, if for no other reason that to address the morbidity and mortality implications of road transport related air pollution.
According to Carbon Tracker, strongly growing annual mileage per EV due to shared mobility services and other trends mean 1 million barrels per day of oil demand could be displaced by just 48.9 million EVs, all other things remaining equal. Alternatively, if the fuel economy of the remaining internal combustion engine (ICE) fleet improves in a 2°C-compliant scenario 1 million barrels per day of oil is displaced for each 82.5 million EVs, all other things remaining equal
Licence to operate is a major factor for any multinational, and the shifting perspective on fossil fuel use was only recently highlighted when the Pope decided to get involved. Pope Francis called on the oil & gas executives to take action on climate change, stating that “with each month that passes, the challenge of energy transition becomes more pressing.” With the oil and gas industry underestimating the speed, scale and impact of future electric vehicle growth the time to act is now.
85 Comments on "EVs Alone Could Peak Oil Demand In The Late 2020s"
dave thompson on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 2:59 pm
“Peak oil demand” more obfuscation for the masses.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 3:18 pm
Dave
Right on..totally stupidity.
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
(Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
Peter on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 3:48 pm
There will be 100 million vehicles sold this year and approximately 50 million scrapped. Of the additional 50 million vehicles on the roads, only 1.6 million will be electric. For oil demand to peak, sales of electric vehicles will have to reach 45 million per year. Until then demand will increase.
Antius on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:11 pm
Plug-in electric hybrids are more compatible with the intermittent output of a renewable energy system, for the obvious reason that the engine provides a backup power source. A pure BEV would require a more reliable electric power supply. You need it to charge reliably at the end of each day. If a hybrid goes without power for week, it will burn more fuel but still work. A pure BEV does not have that flexibility.
Boat on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:35 pm
Antis
The main advantage EV’s have over FF cars is fewer moving parts. This leads to much less maintenance. Maintenance is very expensive. How fast the transition happens is battery tech/cost because EV costs of are more upfront and FF cars become much more expensive after 160,000 miles as parts wear out.
Lower the upfront costs equal to FF cars and the future is here.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:42 pm
Boat
EV’s are garbage that you can’t even take out of the city..And they catch on fire..And they break down all the time..AAA raised charges Tesla owners 30 percent more than other cars because they break down so often and need to be repaired..And you can only go to a dealer to get them fixed..Which is insane expensive..Tesla charges 200 dollars just to change the tires..
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:43 pm
Boat
Just go to youtube and search “Tesla Problems”..You’ll see..
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:52 pm
In U.S., Record-Low 47% Extremely Proud to Be Americans
https://news.gallup.com/poll/236420/record-low-extremely-proud-americans.aspx
onlooker on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:56 pm
“Renewable energy sounds so much more natural and believable than a perpetual-motion machine, but there’s one big problem: Unless you’re planning to live without electricity and motorized transportation, you need more than just wind, water, sunlight, and plants for energy. You need raw materials, real estate, and other things that will run out one day. You need stuff that has to be mined, drilled, transported, and bulldozed — not simply harvested or farmed. You need non-renewable resources:”
The myth of renewable energy
https://thebulletin.org/2011/11/the-myth-of-renewable-energy/
tahoe1780 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 5:19 pm
Bright Green Lies
https://soundcloud.com/lastborninthewilderness/derrick-jensen-complee
Roger on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 5:30 pm
“Carbon Tracker’s latest report Electric Vehicles: The catalyst to further decarbonisation finds that 2 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil demand could be displaced by EVs in the 2020s. While small in stature, this volume of oil can result in disproportionately large levels of disruption to the industry; it was a 2mbd imbalance in supply/ demand that resulted in the 2014 oil price crash. In a feasible, worst-case scenario for the oil and gas industry, 8mbd of oil demand is at risk from EVs by 2030.”
Unfortunately that works both ways…as we’re about to find out.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 5:30 pm
Olooker and Tahoe
Yup, too bad though there is so much fake news about how rewewables’a are our future..
And if you try to criticize renewables it just turns into a game of wack a mole…What about tidal, geo thermal, batteries,..etc…etc.
Davy on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 5:38 pm
These EV’s need to start being powered by wind and solar or they will just contribute to more fossil fuel usage. This is the inconvenient consequence of building them out without a rush to build out much more solar and wind.
energy investor on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:09 pm
And Davy, you cannot build much more wind and solar generating capacity without the ability to store it for smoothing grid supply.
JuanP on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:56 pm
Boat “Lower the upfront costs equal to FF cars and the future is here.”
They’ve been trying! LOL!
Sissyfuss on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:59 pm
Millenialmind, don’t you mean rotate the tires. Change them denotes replacement and $200 would probably just cover the taxes.
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 10:22 pm
Sissy, MM has no experience in the real world. Never owned a car or home or had a family. Probably lives off of his mom and girlfriend, if he has one.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 10:39 pm
Madkat
Mark Twain once suggested, experience can be overdone. The cat that sits on a hot stove will not again sit on a hot stove, but it likely won’t sit on a cold one, either..
Anonymouse1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 10:54 pm
‘mushmind’ lives with his goats in missishiti mak. So, no, he has no one to speak of. Though he has claimed he has an ‘Italian wife’ on a few occasions, that is no more credible than the story that he is a ‘farmer’, living the good honest life on a multi-million dollar doom-stead that he built by hand.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:09 pm
Madkat
Prior to 2008, Chinese policy on debt had been fairly conservative. What we’ve witnessed since has been a truly breath-taking change. Stated at 2017 values, Chinese GDP and debt in 2007 were, respectively, RMB 37 trillion and RMB 60tn. Today, those numbers are RMB 81tn (a 120% rise in GDP) and RMB 251tn (a 320% leap in debt). Whilst GDP has expanded by RMB 44tn, debt has soared by RMB 191tn.
Even more strikingly, the rate at which China has been borrowing over the last decade has averaged RMB 19tn annually. GDP has averaged RMB 60tn over the same period.
So, on average, China borrows close to 32% of GDP each year.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/07/02/130-grand-bargains-dangerous-choices/
China is headed for bankruptcy or nuclear glaze..Take your pick.
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:12 pm
MM, again one of your quotes that mean nothing. Try again. Are you trying to say that a cat has the same intelligence as a human? LOL
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:14 pm
Annyomouse
I think Greg is lying as well about his situation..he says he is all prepared and lives in one of the best locations there is..But if you post a study about collapse coming he tries to cherry pick it and argue a “red herring”..If he was so set up he would’t be so defensive and trying to mislead either himself or others on this board..I know there are fake accounts who lurk about the subject of peak oil..The facebook group has had such a problem they have you answer a bunch of questions before you can join..And we have discovered a few on reddit as well..Its hard to tell these days..
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:16 pm
Madkat
What the quote means is that life beats a person down and makes them afraid of things..It makes you close minded and fearful..
onlooker on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:21 pm
Well, have a good night everyone, thanks for another round of stimulating conversation
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:21 pm
MM: WordPress.com supporters are: “CNN, CBS, BBC, Reuters, Sony, Fortune.com,etc.” Hardly a reliable source of facts. They pay for the site and monitor what is posted there. It is NOT free.
Please keep in mind, if you can, that China is on the Empire’s shit list and you are not going to get anything positive about China from the Us MSM or it;s “affiliates”.
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:26 pm
No, MM, it means that cats are not human and nothing more.
YOU are the one who is afraid of the future and close minded. I’m not. I welcome the challenge as do most intelligent, independent, self assured people. They do not talk of suicide. The Us was founded by millions of people like me. Not woose’ like you.
“A woose (pronounced, wuss) is a common slang term for someone (usually a guy) that is disproportionately afraid of certain things.”
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:30 pm
Madkat
that was just from a personal blog of Dr Tim Morgan from Tullet in London..Stop slandering the messenger and making up lies..you are an uneducated buffoon..
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:31 pm
MM, you/Davy could be fake and probably are. It stretches the imagination that two people could be so alike and do deluded, immature, arrogant, and uneducated.
BTW: I have not seen any inconsistencies in Greg’s comments.
Are you a troll, MM/Davy?
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:32 pm
Madkat
You just admitted you founded America..And then you complain about how its out of control and needs to be taken down..You just proved my argument earlier..Its your fault the US is the way it is now..You can’t have it both ways..
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:34 pm
Madkat
I don’t even agree with most things Davy says..He post way too long of comments for me to read them..He is a dumb old crusty farmer..I am a city slicker..He is a cold hearted trump supporter..he is no different than clogg…he is a rabid racist he just doesnt admit it like clogg does..
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 11:43 pm
That third grade bully surfaces when you are in a corner, Mm.
I don’t care who wrote an article posted on a Us MSM paid for website. It is still Us propaganda.
Reading comprehension skill lacking MM? “The Us was founded by millions of people like me.” Where did I claim to have “founded” the Us? I only compared personalities. Try again.
You can be the same person and play both side of the story. Split personality? Ever hear that term? You and Davy have way too much free time to be anything like what you claim. You are both losers. Zeros. Nothing.
Outcast_Searcher on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 12:52 am
As usual, minimind keeps claiming that hundreds of miles of range means you can’t leave the city.
With nonsense like that, it’s amazing anyone pays the slightest attention to you, other than to point out how wrong you are and how consistently.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 12:59 am
Outcast
An EV battery doesn’t last as long in cold weather..Which is where the majority of Americans live ie The Northeast and midwest..
MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 1:00 am
Madkat
WordPress is just a free personal blog platform..Its no different than any others..You dumbshit..Using ad hom’s is not an argument either..You and greg are the kings of logical fallacies..Typical uneducated boomers..
Makati1 on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 1:03 am
Internet Trolls Are Narcissists, Psychopaths, and Sadists
Trolls will lie, exaggerate, and offend to get a response. – GregT
Makati1 on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 1:13 am
Amazing how the number of Narcissists, Psychopaths, and Sadists are growing in the Us. It must signal the beginning of the violent stage of the collapse of America.
“Chiraq? It Has Been 1221 Days Since Chicago Had A Shooting/Homicide-Free Day.”
“Caution: Americans Should Be Prepared For Anything On The 4th Of July”
“Protests Turn Violent After Anti-ICE Demonstrators Arrested In Philadelphia”
“Snyder: Civil Unrest Is Here, Prepare For A “Summer Of Rage”
“Temps To Hit 110 Degrees – Officials Warn “Stay Inside” As Holiday Heat Wave Hammers East Coast”
“”Shooting And Robbery Are Frequent”: China Warns Its Citizens About Risks Of Travel To The US”
The second act is about to start. Find a seat and pass the popcorn.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 1:16 am
Madkat
Liebig’s Law states that any complex system dependent on several essential inputs can be taken down by that single factor..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebig%27s_law_of_the_minimum
Makati1 on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 3:06 am
And all food, clothing and shelter is going to be totally destroyed when the SHTF? Dream on MM! THEY are the necessities, not everything else.
True, the American way of waste will end rather dramatically and be very painful for Americans. We here in the Ps are already down the ladder and the “fall” from this height will hardly leave a bruise. Not so where you teeter on the top. SPLAT!
My neighbors and myself here, will hardly notice. But, live in your delusional world if you want. I prefer reality. Here in the ‘third world’, several billion of us, will cheer it on. LOL
MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 3:21 am
BP questions pace of US tight oil growth as productivity fades -Platts
“It does perhaps suggest that the very rapid increases in tight oil productivity that characterized much of the initial phase of the shale revolution may be beginning to fade,” Dale said.
“More recently, increasing bottlenecks within the supply chain, together with signs that investors are becoming less willing to finance continued high levels of investment, suggest there may be some limits to the speed with which tight oil can grow going forward,” he said.
Source:
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:hYcbpV05ZzYJ:https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/bp-questions-pace-of-us-tight-oil-growth-as-productivity-26973295+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Shale has peaked..We are at global peak oil right now..
MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 3:27 am
Jose Manuel Barroso; Chairman, Goldman Sachs International
https://imgur.com/a/3CeAVUL
JuanP on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 9:29 am
It is quite obvious from the comments above that MM and Davy are the same person. I am still digesting the implications. He obviously has been lying about everything he does. With all the time he spends here he has none left for working or being in a relationship. Is Davy completely insane? It definitely looks like it!
GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:20 am
“You dumbshit..”
“Using ad hom’s is not an argument either..”
“Dumbshit” is an ad hom MM, not an argument.
“You and greg are the kings of logical fallacies..Typical uneducated boomers..”
Says the guy who continues to preach a fatalistic all or nothing world view, and continues to completely ignore the conclusions presented in most of the articles that he links.
Modern industrial society, the burning of fossil fuels, the exploitation of non renewable resources, consuming renewable resources at a rate faster than they can be naturally replenished, are all unsustainable, and are causing irreversible damage to the Earth’s natural biosphere. The longer we continue to destroy our one and only ever planet, the worse the consequences will be for mankind, and most all other life on Earth.
It isn’t exactly rocket science MM. We need to stop being mindless consumers, and start being conscious stewards for the web of life that we will not survive without.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:28 am
Greg
Stewards of the web of life? WTF?
Save me your hippie dippy bob dylan nonsense..
GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:33 am
And yes MM, eventually there will be a die off. That would be the consequence of a species that is in overshoot of it’s environmental carrying capacity, but as pointed out to you numerous times before, even the BAU LTG scenario shows ~4 billion humans on this planet by 2100.
Personally, I believe that to be overly optimistic, but none of us knows for sure. Not that it really matters, because none of us here will likely be alive by 2100 anyways. Our responsibility should be for future generations, not for our own selfish personal gain and reckless consumption.
GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:37 am
“Stewards of the web of life? WTF?”
I wouldn’t expect someone of your limited intellectual capacity to understand. You have proven time and time again that your comprehension abilities are sub-standard to non-existent.
You aren’t the sharpest tool in the shed, dude.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:11 am
Greg
Liebig’s Law states that any complex system dependent on several essential inputs can be taken down by that single factor..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebig%27s_law_of_the_minimum
get off zerohedge and get a proper education you dumb lumberjack..
MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:23 am
One million refugees would pour into Europe if Iran hangs back: minister
http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/425060/One-million-refugees-would-pour-into-Europe-if-Iran-hangs-back#
Looks like Clogg is going to have some new neighbors!
LMFAO!
GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:28 am
“get off zerohedge and get a proper education you dumb lumberjack..”
Internet Trolls Are Narcissists, Psychopaths, and Sadists
Trolls will lie, exaggerate, and offend to get a response.
GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:30 am
“Looks like Clogg is going to have some new neighbors!
LMFAO!”
Internet Trolls Are Narcissists, Psychopaths, and Sadists
Trolls will lie, exaggerate, and offend to get a response.
GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:33 am
“Liebig’s Law states that any complex system dependent on several essential inputs can be taken down by that single factor..”
I have been fully aware of Liebig’s Law since long before you were even born MM.