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Page added on November 4, 2015

Energiewende

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Guest

Craig Morris, editor of Renewables International and lead author of EnergyTransition.de

On Twitter: @PPChef

Links

Craig Morris: Did German renewables just peak above 80% of demand?(Aug 27, 2015)
Craig Morris: German utilities want to shut down more power plants(Aug 25, 2015)
Chris Nelder: Myth-busting Germany’s Energy Transition (2013)
Chris Nelder: Why America needs a feed-in tariff (2011)

Energy Transition Show

20 Comments on "Energiewende"

makati1 on Wed, 4th Nov 2015 7:43 pm

More BS from the unicorn crowd…

makati1 on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 12:51 am

“…Despite Berlin’s efforts to keep the lid on the costs of the Energiewende, the country’s network of power operators said this month the surcharge levied on German consumers to support renewable energy generation will rise 3 per cent next year.

The increase will now probably translate into higher power bills for consumers in a country where electricity prices are already steep compared with other Western nations….”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-29/germany-pays-the-price-for-switching-off-nuclear-power/6895192

And…

“…However, the problem now is that a large number of the 25,000 odd turbines have become too old. Close to 7,000 of those turbines will complete more than 15 years of operation by next year. Although these turbines can continue running, with some minor repairs and modifications, the question is whether it makes any economic sense to maintain them?…”

http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Wind-Power/Germany-Now-Faced-With-Thousands-Of-Aging-Wind-Farms.html

Looks like ‘renewables’ have hit the negative profit wall in Germany and therefore, all over the indebted world. No profit, no ‘renewables’

ulenspiegel on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 2:10 am

Sorry Makati,

you have no clue:

1) The surcharge will increase, at the same time most of the increase is compensated by reduced wholesale price of electricity. The issue is that many utilities do not reduce their prices for customers who do not change their supplier.

2) Of course many wind turbines are old. However they are replaced at a high rate. Nobody wastes a good site with an old turbine when the new one is profitable, and they are.

Why is it do difficult for you to read the basics, most are published in plain English (e.g. annual wind reports by Fraunhofer “Windmonitor”). Talking nonsense is obviously a substitute for a little bit work, you are lazy and look stupid.

theedrich on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 4:01 am

Interesting discussion of an incredibly complex topic. But it does remind me of Tverberg’s concern about “networked systems.” The extremely intricate arrangement of German and European energy interplays depends on a very stable situation in which all the players keep their cool and make appropriate compromises. If, however, anything (such as the mass invasion of Mohammedans and other parasites) tips the European boat, or severe economic drags from the PIIGS cause an overload of demand, there may/will be severe consequences.

Hello on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 6:31 am

ulenspiegel: Sorry Makati, you have no clue

LOL. Good choice of words!

Davy on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 7:29 am

Ulen, I have the highest regard for German. I lived there in 85 for one year. I was with a German family and worked in a German firm in Nuremberg. I learned enough German to function and enjoy the culture. After I left German latter I returned several time. You have a wonderful country.

Ulen Germany has gone a long way with renewables. I feel they will not go much farther for a number of reasons. The economy is going to drop to a lower economic level that does not allow large scale investments like we have seen in the past. This will limit any further build out and also limit replacement. This is not necessarily a German issue it is a global economic issue for multiple reasons.

We are hitting the limits of growth and diminishing returns. It only takes a small amount of economic activity loss to affect the global economy. We are in or near a recession or a depression. That will be just the start. Once the time frame for a recession and depression is long enough it will decay the global system enough a collapse will likely occur. Once in a collapse the economy will not produce or distribute much as we see today. Renewables are at the top of the complexity chain because of technology, skills, energy, and economics. What we have today is likely all we are ever going to have.

The fact that Germany has a wide variety of renewables is a big advantage but it will not save their complex culture and economy. German and Europe have fa too many people in a smallish area. It will be certain that Europe will have the same turmoil that other areas have. It may even have tragic national conflicts like the past. Europe is also faced with more population overcapacity from Asia, ME, and Africa with a huge and dangerous immigration flux.

Germany is a great country that has overcome adversity through her history but what is coming is unprecedented in scale and all inclusive. It will be more than Germany that will be facing this challenge. All of Germany’s neighbors will be in the same boat. Global all regions face a similar list of challenges. Asia is the worst positioned by far. The biggest die off will occur there without question. Europe is better position than Asia but not by much.

simonr on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 7:52 am

Essentially Dave you are correct.

Assuming we could generate and store (pumped hydro) enough leccy for a society, that does not take into account plastics etc.

As far as renewables are concerned, they are being built out across Europe at a rate, and we are starting to research into smart grids. It seems that what is to come is a way to store the power.
When TSHTF I would imagine that power rationing using smart grids would be the order of the day, so …. as you said a way less power intensive life.

As for the economics of older turbines, the article was a bit vague, way to many probably’s for my liking, however since a huge part of the cost of a turbine is the footings, you are not talking about replacing anything other than the turbine, a cost for sure, but not enough to stop an investor.

The longer we have before the descent the more Renewables we can build and a few bumps can be smoothed.

Simon

makati1 on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 8:48 am

simonr, dream on. Europe is flirting with a war with Russia, thanks to your masters in DC. If there is a Europe in 10 years, I will be surprised. Your countries are declining just like the US. You have already peaked and are racing down the other side. Good luck with anymore ‘remewables’ build out.

apneaman on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 9:03 am

Energiewende is bullshit. Maybe it started out as well meaning, but it became corrupted (what doesn’t?) by big alt and enviro groups that want to hold up Germany as a poster child for alt energy. It’s a problem child. The marriage of big alt and Big green is as dirty as the fossil fuel companies. Maybe not for emissions, but for habitat destruction and toxic pollution and definitely for politics and money. What percentage of the palm oil as bio fuel from this most recent environmental holocaust in Indonesia is burnt in German diesel powered vehicles? VW, I think accurately represents what’s really going on in Germany. I’m not trying to single out Germany as any worse than anyone else, just that they are the same lying cheating fuckers as everyone else and their image as green is just that, an image, created by slick PR and marketing. BTW German companies are also funding coal burning plants in other countries too. The only green apes are dead apes.

Why Germany’s Nuclear Phase Out is Leading to More Coal Burning

http://www.theenergycollective.com/robertwilson190/328841/why-germanys-nuclear-phase-out-leading-more-coal-burning

Rising German Coal Use Imperils European Emissions Deal

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-06-19/rising-german-coal-use-imperils-european-emissions-deal

October 13, 2015 6:59 am
Coal resurgence darkens Germans’ green image

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/719ea15e-68fa-11e5-a57f-21b88f7d973f.html#ixzz3qd12HbdL

Germany has long led the way in global green energy innovation. But ahead of UN climate talks this December, some say the country’s new reliance on coal means it has lost the moral high ground on emissions.
Europe’s leading economy still flaunts its virtuous climate track-record abroad. It was on show during recent state visits by Angela Merkel, the chancellor, to Brazil and India, two of the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters.

Yet back at home, observers warn Germany’s powerful coal lobby is frittering away the nation’s reputation as a green Wunderkind.
“The coal problem must be solved if Germany wants to be celebrated once again as a leading voice on climate change,” says Claudia Kemfert, head of the energy, transportation and environment department at the German institute for economic research.
Germany’s dilemma dates back to its pledge to shift from nuclear power to other forms of renewable energy following Japan’s Fukushima disaster. The nuclear phase-out has resulted in the country falling back on one of the most polluting forms of fuel, coal. This goes against the grain of Germany’s Energiewende, part of the intention of which is to cut the use of fossil fuels.

Panicked by the disaster in Japan, German politicians began shutting down the country’s oldest nuclear plants in 2011, with a view to going completely uranium-free by 2022. The plan is for renewables eventually to take centre stage in Germany’s energy mix. However, coal, in particular carbon-intensive lignite, has been filling the gap.
Germany generated 44 per cent of its electricity from coal last year, more than any other EU member state. That compares with 26 per cent from renewables and 16 per cent from its eight remaining nuclear plants. This coal renaissance is undermining the government’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and casting doubt on Germany’s green credentials. In 2013, German emissions rose by 1.2 per cent, defying a decade-long downward trend.

“In Germany we’re living with a paradox resulting from the energy transition,” says Ms Kemfert. On the one hand, the country is investing in renewable energy helping to bring emissions down, while on the other the increased use of coal acts to force them up.

Germany now looks set to miss its voluntary target of a 40 per cent reduction in emissions on 1990 levels by 2020. Ministers point out Germany has already met its binding Kyoto target of a 20 per cent reduction. However, that achievement predates the decision to abandon nuclear.
Even before the recent Volkswagen emissions scandal sent Germany into a flurry of soul-searching, policymakers were desperately looking for ways forward to meet the 40 per cent target and re-establishing the country at the top of the international pecking order on climate change
But Ms Merkel’s government had not reckoned with the power of the coal lobby. Plans this year to slap a levy on emissions from the dirtiest plants powered by lignite had to be abandoned after they met opposition from industry, unions and local politicians.
This coalition, led by RWE, Germany’s second biggest power provider and the operator of most of the country’s lignite plants, said the levy would threaten 100,000 jobs in industrial regions and would push up costs to industry and consumers.

Talks in July led to a compromise. Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s energy minister, promised to compensate RWE and others for gradually retiring a number of the oldest lignite plants as “reserve capacity”.
“Since our plans affect many jobs, we altered course,” the energy minister said.
The compromise demonstrates the kind of tensions that exist between Germany’s coal-dependent energy providers and the state’s declared environmental goals. Politicians in Germany and beyond, however, need eventually to resolve such tensions in order to achieve a carbon-neutral economy by the end of the century — a goal activists hope will be accepted for all countries in a binding agreement at the December climate talks in Paris.
As Barbara Hendricks, German environment minister, said last month: Germans “cannot go around heralding the climate neutral global economy and at the same time act as if that does not apply to the coal regions in our own country”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/719ea15e-68fa-11e5-a57f-21b88f7d973f.html#axzz3qd0Moxs2

Kenz300 on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 9:11 am

Climate Change is real…. it will impact all of us……we need to move to clean energy production with wind and solar power and clean energy consumption with electric vehicles……… Fossil fuels are the cause of Climate Change….. we need to deal with the cause….

GregT on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 9:13 am

Alternate electric power generation will do nothing to solve a liquid fuels crisis. Modern industrial society runs on oil, not on electricity. Better to focus on feeding the masses without fossil fuels, than to worry about keeping the lights on at night.

simonr on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 11:23 am

Mak.

Essentially You are saying IF we have a war, this will interrupt rollout of renewables ….. Cant agree more, however same goes IF Godzilla attacks, both scenarios are equally likely (no one is going to war).

There will be a Europe (its a pretty large land mass). I imagine you are talking about the EU though, and that is a different proposition, maybe maybe not.

Racing down the other side, I think not, Europe is fairly large, you cannot generalise, some are declining some not. Either way the cost of gradually building out renewables is easily absorbed.

Greg. I agree, Leccy wont solve a food or raw materials crisis, I guess we will have to make do.

again, the rub is … how long before it all goes boom.

Simon

makati1 on Thu, 5th Nov 2015 11:44 pm

simonr, maybe you need to get out of the dream world and into the real world. War is coming to all of Europe … again. You have no choice unless you move away from the Empire and quit kissing Obama’s warmongering ass. I don’t see signs of that happening.

Your fuehrer Merkle is taking you down the path to a war with Russia because she is in bed with the Empire or they have some real dirt on her and are making her dance to the imperial tune. That is, IF your economy holds together that long. The EU is toast, as are ALL of the EU countries.

You are being overrun by Muslims, encouraged by the US actions in MENA, to make Europe weaker. You don’t seem to see that the Us cannot have a strong Europe or Euro or any other country. There can be no country that can compete with the Us if the Us is to survive.

Renewables are not renewable if there is no extra money to pay for them and no extra energy to produce them. I read all about the collapsing economy in Germany. From your banks to your major industries. All are in trouble, just like America’s.

Now you are taking in millions of future problems from the south and there will be millions more to come. All those men will send for their families and relatives. Wait and see.

simonr on Fri, 6th Nov 2015 2:54 am

Mak

you said

….. You have no choice unless …..

In other words we do have a choice, so once again, an IF, you are merely speculating. BTW I think you should be referring to Mme Merkel as Mutter, I am sure our native German speakers could correct me.

Germany is actually talking big, but all the time doing deals with Russia, so don’t listen to the rhetoric, watch the actions.

Muslims ….. not sure how this would affect us, but there are 300million (ish) of us in Europe, we would take a bit of overrunning, are you sure you have read the numbers accurately ?

Renewables actually refer to the energy source used, not the finance.

As to the finance, second quarter growth 2015 was 0.4% (so growing NOT declining), second quarter GDP was $682,094 million, I reckon we can afford a few solar panels here and there.

Simon

theedrich on Fri, 6th Nov 2015 3:18 am

Der richtige Titel der Kanzlerin ist »Frau Doktorin Angela Merkel«, denn sie ist Diplomphysikerin (Uni Leipzig, wo sie Physik studiert hatte). Zwischen 1978 und 1990 war sie wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin am Zentralinstitut für physikalische Chemie an der Akademie der Wissenschaften.

simonr on Fri, 6th Nov 2015 4:18 am

entschuldigen theedrich. Frau Docktor it is.

Hell of an achievement, one of the smarter politicians, good choice Germany

makati1 on Fri, 6th Nov 2015 6:08 am

simone, my title of fuehrer for herr merkle is correct. You just refuse to see it.

simonr on Fri, 6th Nov 2015 6:27 am

Hi Mak.

who is herr merkle

is the same person as

Angela Merkle
Blumenstr. 14

73630 Remshalden (Grunbach)

Kenz300 on Fri, 6th Nov 2015 11:01 am

Wind and solar are the future……..

Solar Beats Gas in Colorado – Renewable Energy World

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/08/solar-beats-gas-in-colorado.html
Solar and Wind Just Passed Another Big Turning Point
http://bloom.bg/1WK34MZ

Kenz300 on Fri, 6th Nov 2015 11:02 am

Electric vehicles, bicycles and mass transit are the future…….

How The Decline Of Cars Is Changing Cities For The Better

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/car-decline-cities_561f34dae4b0c5a1ce620dd9

Energiewende

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