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Page added on November 16, 2014
EIA Chief Economist: Natural Gas Could Be the Energy of the Future
At a conference on the outlook of the world’s energy future in Brussels on Friday, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) chief economist of global energy economics, Fatih Birol, said he thought natural gas use would increase substantially in the years to come.
“We expect that natural gas will soon will be number one fuel in the entire energy world,” he said.
The main advantage of natural gas, according to him, is that it is one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels, emitting about half the amount of CO2 as coal and about a quarter less than gasoline. He also cited its flexibility in being traded. Traditionally gas was locked into long-term contracts, but a new trend towards more flexible arrangements means it can be traded where the need is greatest.
“We will see the increasing trade in gas … you can find gas goes from Australia, going from West Africa, East Africa, North America, and other countries, so there will be a more flexible gas market, and this will be good news for the gas security, gas supply, for the entire world,” Birol said.
This is good for Europe’s energy security. Energy experts at the conference all agreed the EU should diversify its imports of gas to not rely on Russia, which supplies the EU with about a third of its oil and natural gas.
“There will be new gas exporting countries coming like Australia, the U.S., Canada, East Africa—this would also give a lot of options to European countries to diversify its import portfolio to much improve energy security, European energy security,” Birol said.
Global Outlook
The overall global picture of gas demand, according to International Energy Agency, shows that a big portion of the gas imports will come from China and the Middle East.
A big portion of gas exports will come from the U.S., Australia, and Africa, which will be the main players in the future of the gas market.
Emerging economies around the world require more energy resources every year, and Ereik Waerness, chief economist at Statoil, Scandinavia’s largest energy company, said that energy needs to come from a clean source.
“To provide sufficient energy in a sustainable manner requires that we replace coal with gas. To ensure that we get a lower fossil [fuel] footprint, CO2 footprint, in the global energy mix, we need to provide as much gas as possible to countries that currently use too much coal, particularly in Asia,” he said.
The second solution, according to Waerness, is renewable energy.
Marie Donnelly, director for New and Renewable Sources of Energy at the European Commission said that, while renewables are essential, demand also needs to be reduced.
“Probably the biggest aspect, the biggest contributor to security of energy supply is, in fact, moderation of demand, energy efficiency,” Donnelly said.
And that is the direction Europe is moving. The EU is looking to cut 20 percent of energy consumption through energy efficiency measures by 2020.
18 Comments on "EIA Chief Economist: Natural Gas Could Be the Energy of the Future"
Davy on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 7:53 am
To avoid repetitive comments we have gone over this many times. NatGas is nothing more than a bridge fuel. It has numerous negatives. The primary one I see is the infrastructure build out in a likely recessionary global economy. The next recession could be a lengthy one considering all the dysfunctions from years of financial repression.
Makati1 on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 8:00 am
The 20% energy cut by 2020 is probably on the low side, but it is not because of efficiency or renewables. It’s because Europe is tanking in every way possible. No income, no energy consumption outside of sunlight on your body or garden. The ONLY energy that is totally renewable, at least for the next 5 or so billion years. After that, who knows? But, we will not be there to worry about it.
Nony on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 8:41 am
But, but Hubbert (and other peakers) said we would have peak gas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_gas
It should be going down! *stomps foot*
Kenz300 on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 8:58 am
“Energy experts at the conference all agreed the EU should diversify its imports of gas to not rely on Russia, which supplies the EU with about a third of its oil and natural gas.”
Russia is not a reliable supplier of anything……..
Locally produced alternative energy can provide local jobs and reliable energy for the future.
The big centralized fossil fuel solutions are slowly giving way to locally generated solutions.
Wind, solar, wave energy, geothermal and second generation biofuels made from algae, cellulose and waste are the future.
——————
Energy Storage Will Soon Replace Simple Cycle Combustion Turbine Peaker Plants
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/11/energy-storage-will-soon-replace-simple-cycle-combustion-turbine-peaker-plants
Davy on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 9:14 am
NOo, you suffer typical financial analysts short term isms. Life has its own clock. Be patient. A recession will put a world of hurt on the gas industry.
Dredd on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 9:23 am
“Natural Gas Could Be the Energy of the Future”
Neither gas, oil, nor coal are energy.
e = mc^2
Propaganda generates bad nomenclature.
bobinget on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 9:26 am
The fact is, there is no natural gas shortage.. full stop
Conversion to 75% sustainable power is now a real, but slower, possibility. This was not the case just a few years ago.
Selling Europe and the US short might sound scary
enough but don’t bet LT against Europe.
After January Republicans in the US Congress will
cease the anti Blue Collar labor rhetoric.
In a fruitless effort to regain the White House, Right Wing stalwarts will suddenly begin to sound sane.
In the recent election Republicans won 70% of the White Male Blue Collar vote. The GOP will pass the ten dollar minimum wage bill, taking full credit, but
President O will sign on.
Suddenly, infrastructure bills, long moldering in Congress will pass and credit will be given in every district to the sitting congress.
IOW’s the economy will begin to grow.. (more then
3%)
Obama Care will become more popular now that the GOP changed the name to something like THE ‘NEW’ Health Care Reform Act of 2015.
Europe actually NEEDS a bit of inflation. Difficult indeed with so much unemployment. Watch for
stimulus in that infrastructure/housing/ defense sectors. Germany needs to flog more VW’s.
(only) ten million sold 2014. Henry Ford thought
Right Wing industrialists, pay lumpen more and they will be able to buy cars.
Japan will need to devalue the yen or turn back on
most nuclear power generation. I’m betting both.
Islamic Militants need to take a breather to catch up with western cyber weapons technology.
Unless Muslims offer genuine gender neutrality, religious crazies remain in 18th century mode till old Mullas join suicide bombers who wasted their pitiful lives killing non combatants.
Most Western men don’t get it. But in time, female
activists, the ones that survive, will lead the Mideast
out of misery.
By now it should be obvious to almost all, Russia is angling to become ‘head’ of OPEC or what ever
Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Ecuador, Russia, Syria decide to name OPEC’s successor or co/dependent cartel.
Gazprom will become as powerful as Exxon, all because of gas.
JuanP on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 9:38 am
There is only one thing I consider worth saying regarding all EIA’s energy forecasts. They have always been consistently wrong and anyone who pays any attention to the EIA’s future energy forecasts is an ignorant fool and a sheeple.
Move on. Don’t waste your few properly working synapses on this crap.
rockman on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 10:14 am
““We will see the increasing (international) trade in gas…so there will be a more flexible gas market, and this will be good news for the gas security, gas supply, for the entire world,” Birol said.” So funny: so in the future NG exports will bring the world the same “security” oil exports have. I assume he using the current situation in the EU as his poster child for the “good news” brought to the region thanks to Russian imports.
Imported commodities are embedded with the same dynamic be it oil, NG, coal, copper, rare earth minerals, etc. They provide security…until they don’t. Economies can thrive on such imported commodities…until they don’t.
Dubya on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 10:27 am
Assuming a less than 1% leakage rate the global warming potential of NG is likely lower than coal. Measured losses are up to 8% but definitely more than 1. So on a 20 year timeframe NG is almost certainly worse unless we can get the companies to fix their leaks. This is odd as it is to the NG companies advantage to do so, anyway.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 11:07 am
I don’t know how they plan to get all that NG out of the ground, packaged for transport and distributed to end users without burning a lot of oil. In my mind, NG is just like plastics, asphalt, commercially grown food and so many other things — totally dependent on fuel derived from oil. Or am I mistaken, and NG can power its own extraction and distribution? I don’t think so.
Plantagenet on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 11:15 am
It doesn’t matter if it’s NG, coal or oil. We’re going to burn it all. That’s how human society operates
ghung on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 11:51 am
“EIA Chief Economist…”
“…on Friday, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) chief economist of global energy economics, Fatih Birol,…”
Perhaps the author doesn’t know that the EIA and IEA are totally different organisations, on different continents,, or is it a typo?
dolanbaker on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 1:29 pm
On the same page (PO.com/news is a news report that gas in Europe could soon be in short supply due to Russia selling east at the expense of west.
Speculawyer on Sun, 16th Nov 2014 6:46 pm
Yeah, put me down in the “Natural gas is bridge fuel” category. Use it right now to generate electricity while we should be building more solar PV, onshore wind, nuclear, geothermal, hydropower, concentrated solar power, tidal power, offshore wind, and other carbon free sources of electricity. But eventually, we should move away from natural gas too.
Makati1 on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 6:37 am
I suspect we will move away from all hydrocarbons soon. Economics of recovery dictate how much we will use and when it will end, not the resource itself. When the last car sputters and dies, there will still be lots of hydrocarbons in the ground and there they will stay.
EROEI still runs the show and it has been decreasing since at least 1970.
Feemer on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 6:43 pm
I worry that we will build all these natural gas power plants and then the fracking boom will come crashing down (as we know it will), and we will be shit out of luck.
Davy on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 7:15 pm
Yea Feem, after we have mothballed significant coal and NUK because of the false hope of gas. I don’t like any FF, NUK, or river destroying hydro. Yet, until we have a descent mitigation plan in place we should husband energy resources of every kind especially the built out kind. We know here the energy needed to create new infrastructure. There is precious little time nor money left.