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Page added on June 2, 2015
Could Middle East Switch From Oil to Renewables?
Decreasing prices in solar power could provide opportunities for oil-poor countries
“Costs have halved in just three years,” energy consultant Robin Mills noted last week, “meaning solar can now beat all conventional generation apart from the very cheapest gas.”
Mills cited the bids in Jordan’s recent solar auction, which were just over 6 US cents per kilowatt-hour. These were just slightly above the record 5.84 cents from Acwa Power last November for the 200 MW second phase of Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum solar park.
It could be Egypt’s turn next, Mills suggested, as the North African country struggles with a gas and power crisis and is reportedly working on 6,500 MW of solar deals.
“Petroleum-poor countries such as Jordan should seize the opportunity now to boost their economic and energy security,” Mills, the head of consulting for Dubai-based Manaar Energy, urged in an article for Abu Dhabi’s “The National.”
In general, the expert said, any country burning oil for power – including oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran as well as oil-poor countries like Jordan and Egypt – should replace this with solar as much as possible.
Egypt, as well as Kuwait and Dubai, could also save on imported liquefied natural gas by switching to solar, even though LNG prices have dropped sharply, he said.
The prospects for solar in the Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region are even more promising than forecasted in Manaar’s optimistic 2012 study, “Sunrise in the Desert,” Mills said.
The new evidence of plunging costs for solar in MENA come as Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated the kingdom’s plans to become a “global power” in solar and wind energy.
“In Saudi Arabia, we recognize that eventually, one of these days, we’re not going to need fossil fuels,” Naimi said at a climate change conference this month [May] in Paris. “I don’t know when – 2040, 2050 or thereafter. So we have embarked on a program to develop solar energy.”
The recent decline in oil prices won’t make solar power uneconomic, the influential official said. “I believe solar will be even more economic than fossil fuels,” Naimi told those attending the Business & Climate Summit at Unesco headquarters.
With its previously announced plans to develop solar and wind power, Saudi Arabia hopes one day to be exporting “gigawatts of electric power” instead of fossil fuels.
The 2012 report from Manaar, produced in collaboration with PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Emirates Solar Industry Association, identified half a dozen different ways various countries in the MENA region can benefit from increased use of solar power.
For one group – Jordan, Morocco, Lebanon, and the northern emirates in United Arab Emirates – solar power can save on high-cost oil imports. In countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Syria, solar can free up domestic oil consumption for export. For others, like Dubai and Tunisia, it can save on high-cost gas imports.
Other countries – Iraq, Libya and Yemen – can rely on solar while developing domestic gas resources. Another group – including Algeria, Abu Dhabi, Iran, and Oman – can free up gas consumption for export. Qatar, which limits gas exports as a matter of policy, is a case apart and would not find solar economic in the immediate future.
In short, solar has enormous benefits for nearly all countries in the region, even when taking into consideration their different circumstances.
In his new article, Mills sees the region poised to enter a third generation of solar power development, after a first generation of heavily subsidized pilot projects and the current generation becoming the cheapest energy source on its own.
The third generation must address the problem of intermittency, he says – meeting the need for electricity outside periods of maximum solar output. Possible solutions include grid interconnections with countries that have different demand patterns; energy storage, especially if there are further breakthroughs on battery costs; and better demand management.
Another issue that needs to be addressed in the third generation, Mills said, is meeting the demand for desalinated water. This is currently dealt with by using the waste heat from gas-burning power plants. Possible solar solutions would use solar electricity to drive reverse osmosis plants or use the sun’s heat directly for desalination.
22 Comments on "Could Middle East Switch From Oil to Renewables?"
Plantagenet on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 3:09 pm
Its just common sense for KSA and other ME countries to go solar. They’ve got the sun, thats for sure, and every bit of solar power generated leaves more valuable oil to be set aside for export.
jimmy on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 3:19 pm
thanks once again Plant for pointing out that which is painfully obvious. You should work for CIA or something.
GregT on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 3:20 pm
You actually said something that made sense planter. Off your meds?
Plantagenet on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 3:45 pm
@Jimmy
You are welcome.
Glad to see your are paying attention.
Cheers!
Perk Earl on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 3:56 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/magazine/the-agency.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=photo-spot-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
The Agency
From a nondescript office building in St. Petersburg, Russia, an army of well-paid “trolls” has tried to wreak havoc all around the Internet — and in real-life American communities.
GregT on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 4:01 pm
It couldn’t be Perk, could it? I thought planter was from Alaska. Hey, wait a minute………
Plantagenet on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 4:42 pm
Surely even someone as dumb as you should be able to figure this one out, gregter.
The Russian trolls will be the ones posting pro-Putin and pro-Russian propaganda, backing the Russian invasion of Crimea and Ukraine, etc.
Get it now?
sunweb on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 4:51 pm
It should be easy for them to go solar energy collecting devices. They have the oil needed to make them, maintain them, make the auxiliary equipment and maybe replace them (if they can still afford to get the oil out).
GregT on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 6:02 pm
You forgot about the Russian invasion of Alaska planter.
“Russians Ask Putin “Annex Us State of Alaska, It Is Ours”, Putin Responds “Not Yet, It’s Still Too Cold”
Climate change could make Alaska more desirable for a Russian invasion.
http://topekasnews.com/russians-ask-putin-annex-us-state-alaska-putin-responds-yet-still-cold/
We all know how useless O is. You’re on your own up there a half a continent away from the USA. Good luck!
Makati1 on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 8:05 pm
sunweb, but they don’t have the manufacturing or the tech and they do have dust storms and the lack of water. Oil is just a messy liquid without the ability to make something from it.
I don’t see that happening. They purchase most everything they use now from other countries, including the foreign workers and the foreign technical staff that runs things.
I don’t see the ME as existing in the not to distant future. The wars are spreading and destruction is the name of the game. It is a hornet’s nest of problems, not the least of which is three ‘religions’ at each others throats. THAT is not going to go away.
The dictators/kings will tell the masses whatever it takes to keep their heads on their shoulders and their luxurious lifestyle. Something like what the West is doing to try to keep BAU for one more day. Lies and more lies.
rockman on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 9:15 pm
Or the more critical question: what’s more pertinent: what the those nations COULD DO or what they are actually DOING?
Perk Earl on Tue, 2nd Jun 2015 9:29 pm
“It couldn’t be Perk, could it? I thought planter was from Alaska. Hey, wait a minute………”
GregT, plant did recently make a visit to Gibraltar which is closer to Russia than it is to Alaska. Ah, yes, food for thought…
dubya on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 12:50 am
The Plant is correct on this one – right now the A-rabs are burning oil to generate electricity & fresh water.
There must be a deeper reason for this – oil being their only source of revenue it would make sense to replace domestic oil use with solar so they can sell the oil.
I suppose the ‘economists’ convinced them the oil is free so they might as well burn it themselves.
ulenspiegel on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:28 am
Rockman wrote: “Or the more critical question: what’s more pertinent: what the those nations COULD DO or what they are actually DOING?”
Yes, the not so funny thing is that the planned/anounced PV capacity in ME is huge, the installed is tiny.
And this despite the fact that PV is better solution with oil above 50 USD.
rockman on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 6:22 am
u – Exactly. Granted they have an existing oil-burning infrastructure in place they were still consuming $100/bbl production they could have been selling. Switching over certainly could have been easily paid for given the 100’s of $billion un foreign currency they held. It’s difficult to imagine the reason for not at least putting in some solar to supplement the oil burning, Which is why is difficult to expect any radical changes now especially with lower oil prices.
Mike989 on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 9:44 am
Obama useless.
Fox News Nut, good thing there isn’t a RepublaNut as President. Would we be at war in 13 countries by now?
McCain, “the moderate” as called for war Monthly.
GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 11:30 am
Both parties are one and the same, controlled by the same globalist elite. The only choice left for Americans, is to vote for anybody in the next election other than a Republican or a Democrat.
Davy on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 1:25 pm
Greg, do you think Rand Paul has any worth as an alternative to the globalist infrastructure. I like his Father also.
GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 1:44 pm
Davy,
I haven’t followed Rand, but his father was/is a voice of reason. Good thing for Dr. Paul that he didn’t get in though, he probably would have been assassinated. Nothing will change for the better, unless the FED is ended.
GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 1:59 pm
I’m sure that most Americans have heard the term; ‘End the Fed’. I’m even more sure that the vast majority have no idea what this means, or why it is necessary.
Davy on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 2:01 pm
Thanks Greg. There is no one I could vote for currently but I have been following Rand Paul as a possibility. He is a republican but with libertarian leanings like his dad. He is the one that was against renewal of the Patriot Act. I appreciated that stance of his.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rand_Paul
GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 2:04 pm
For what it’s worth Davy, things are no better in Canada.