Biomass is the next obvious source of energy

The global demand for energy continues to increase at a steady pace. China just passed the United States in total energy demand, fueled not only by domestic growth but by the demand for exports. We continue to lead the world in per-capita consumption of energy and in nearly anything you wish to measure such as water, wood and fibre, minerals, rare earth metals, food, number of cars per household, and other durable and consumable goods.

But to talk about our emerging energy needs and the current interest in biofuels development, we must first refer to Earth’s growing population. Currently at 6.95 billion, the world population is projected to reach nine billion by 2050. Is 39 years enough time to develop alternative energy sources to meet even the incremental demand from an additional three billion people on the planet?

The U.S. population, currently at 311.7 million, is targeted to reach 360 million to 500 million by 2050. In less than three life spans, the U.S. population could reach 1.3 billion people by 2180, the population of China today. By 2025 India will surpass China as the most populous nation on the planet.

We must ask ourselves: Can technology and new energy sources such as biofuels keep pace with demands of a growing population?

Renewable energy sources — wind, hydro, solar, and biomass — account for about eight percent of the U.S. portfolio. Coal, gas, oil, and nuclear power account for the rest. In the U.S. electrical energy comes mainly from coal or nuclear-based steam-driven generating turbines, and from hydroelectric power plants. Our transportation energy comes almost totally from oil in the form of liquid fuels such as diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuels.

Our entire transportation fuel infrastructure is based on liquid fuel technology, and this is driving much of the research and development into liquid fuel supplements and replacements such as ethanol derived from biomass.

The U.S. leads the world in ethanol production, recently surpassing Brazil. The United States, Brazil and Germany now account for more than half of biodiesel and more than 90 per cent of bioethanol production globally. Ethanol production in the United States is based mainly on conversion of corn to ethanol via a fermentation process. A 45-cents-a-gallon subsidy is paid to refiners who blend ethanol with gasoline; there is a 54-cent tariff on ethanol imports into the United States.

The ethanol subsidy is a $6 billion government-funded subsidy. The U.S. Senate recently voted to remove the corn ethanol subsidy, but it is unlikely the House of Representatives or the White House will take this approach. There is strong political support for corn ethanol in the Midwestern states that produce the bulk of the nation’s corn.

Today, there are more acres planted in corn in the U.S. than at any time since 1947. Fifty years ago Americans produced about 40 bushels per acre, and today that’s about 160 bushels per acre. Forty per cent of the current total U.S. corn crop is being used for production of ethanol to be blended with gasoline. This standard requires that the volume of renewable fuel to be blended into gasoline increase from nine billion gallons in 2008 to 36 billion gallons by 2022. Targets call for the production of conventional ethanol to increase to 15 billion gallons per year by 2016.

One of the resource inputs into corn ethanol production is the required use of water to boil, ferment, and distill the biofuel. National averages are running from five litres per litre of ethanol produced to more than 2,000 litres of water per litre of ethanol produced in those states that rely on irrigation to bring a corn crop to market. Water is our most important resource, and future water quality and quantity will be job No. 1 for most countries, including the U.S. Increased corn production on increased acreage has implications for the local landscape, above- and below-ground water management, land values, carbon sequestration in plants and soil, and the biodiversity of wildlife.

We also need to consider the necessary use of herbicides and pesticides. Popular corn herbicides such as Atrizine are highly water soluble, and long-term considerations of our water quality should be included in this discussion. There is public outcry over coal mining practices, including stream and water quality. Will we see public outcry in the future over farming practices used in the production of corn to meet our growing liquid fuel needs?

These are complex questions, and whatever path we pick for alternative fuels will have consequences. The European Union has moved to require measurement of carbon dioxide emission from alternative motor fuels. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable fuels must include analysis of the total impacts of our choice, employing life-cycle assessment tools to look at the total environmental burden of making biofuels. A body of research and in pilot scale production of cellulosic ethanol produced from trees and woody crops are leading many policymakers to believe that wood plants should and will rival corn for prominence in the ethanol market.

Americans’ renewable energy platform accounts for only eight percent of total U.S. demand and that the biomass component of this mix is an even smaller part of our energy portfolio.

What does our future look like? Surely we will need a mix of energy sources to meet future demands. We will need significant investments in research and development. We will need new technologies to challenge a growing population. We will need wind, solar, hydro, and biomass more than ever in the future. None of these sources alone will be sufficient to meet demand, nor will fossil fuel sources. How far are you looking ahead—five, 10, 50, 100, 200 years?

We need a global conversation about population. And in the United States we need to consider our role as the leading global consumer of all forms of energy. We need a renewed effort in energy conservation. And we need our education system to specifically address the population, water, and energy issues that the new generation will face.

GuelphMercury