Peak Oil is You
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Page added on November 3, 2014
Bad Energy. Good Energy. Choose Your Side.
The fight to develop renewable energy is a battle of good against evil, and the future of humanity hangs in the balance.
No, I’m not talking about climate change (though that is certainly important). I’m talking about the distribution of wealth and power across the whole planet. The question of who will reap the benefits of future growth hinges on whether we discover new, better sources of energy.
The story of our species goes like this. For thousands of years, humanity’s energy budget was basically fixed — we got energy from our own bodies, from animals and from wood. All of those came from land — whoever had the land controlled the energy. Since technological progress was slow, the best way to get rich was to take someone else’s land. So for thousands of years, war was the normal state of affairs, and whoever was best at war — Roman and Chinese emperors, barbarian warlords or Mongol khans — was the richest. It was a brutal, zero-sum world.
Then two things happened to turn the old zero-sum world on its head. Technological progress accelerated dramatically, and we discovered how to extract energy from fossil fuel. These two processes fed each other, and the result was an increase in human well-being like nothing the world had ever seen. Suddenly, great fortunes were made from inventing new things and organizing people for productive activity, rather than from seizing land from the neighbors. It became a positive-sum world, much more peaceful as well as much richer.
Most of us would like that positive-sum world to continue. There’s just one problem — there is a very limited supply of fossil fuel energy on our planet. In the 2000s, those limits started making themselves apparent — many thought we were on the verge of peak oil, standing on the precipice of a new dark age. Human ingenuity battled back, and gave us shale gas and tight oil, which have sent energy prices back down –– but not down to where they were before the middle of the last decade. Fracking shale is expensive, and it’s going to get more so as time goes on. It’s a stopgap –– a bulwark against the onslaught of scarcity, but not a long-term solution.
Meanwhile, prices have stayed high, feeding the coffers of autocratic regimes such as those of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela. Consider Putin. Here is a man whose power derives from the fact that his predecessors conquered a huge tract of land by military force, which later happened to have a lot of oil under it. Putin’s more recent predecessors managed to defend that oil-rich land, and used the oil wealth to build up one of the world’s largest militaries. The military defends the land, the land provides the wealth to pay for the military, and Putin and his friends skim a little off the top. As U.S. Senator John McCain said, Russia is indeed a gas station, but it’s a gas station with ICBMs.
If we don’t find a better source of energy than oil and gas, Putin’s militarized gas station represents the future of our planet. We won’t run out of fossil fuels for at least a century, but high-tech extraction costs will rise and rise, giving windfalls to whoever sits on the land with the lowest extraction costs, whether it’s the rulers of Russia, Saudi Arabia or Iran. We won’t go all the way back to the zero-sum world, where land is the most important source of wealth, but we will slide back in that direction.
Against this grim future stand the forces of good — human ingenuity and smarts. If we can come up with new energy sources that are better than oil and gas, then we can get back on the positive-sum path. And if those new energy sources are things that don’t run out in a century or two, then the positive-sum world can last basically forever.
There are two potential energy sources that could let us escape the zero-sum world. The first is fusion energy. The second is solar energy.
Fusion, the ultimate energy solution, has long been a pipe dream, but researchers continue to push ahead with new ideas. Lockheed Martin has announced breakthroughs in compact fusion reactors, and startups such as Helion Energy and General Fusion are attracting attention and money.
Solar, meanwhile, has seen stupendous price declines. A new Deutsche Bank report says that even if government subsidies for solar power are slashed from the current 30 percent to only 10 percent, solar electricity will be cheaper than fossil-fuel electricity in 36 states by 2016. Plunging costs are being driven by new technology, by economies of scale and improvements in the solar-panel manufacturing process, and by drops in “balance of system” costs. Meanwhile, battery storage costs have been falling steadily as well, though at a frustratingly slow rate.
So renewable energy is a moral crusade. If human ingenuity wins, we remain in a world where new ideas and productive effort are the main determinants of prosperity. If technology loses — if fusion doesn’t pan out, batteries never become viable, and solar costs stop falling or go back up — then more and more of the world’s wealth and power will flow into the hands of violent men who seize land with force. I know who I’m rooting for.
15 Comments on "Bad Energy. Good Energy. Choose Your Side."
Makati1 on Mon, 3rd Nov 2014 8:11 pm
Again, the idea that there is man-made ‘renewable’ energy is the basis for more techie dreams. That some form of BAU can continue if only…
If you are talking about sun power through plants into muscle energy, then yes, renewable is possible. At least for another 4 billion or so years.
If you are speaking of anything else, not going to happen. At best, they can slow down the regression to the Iron Age, but they will not last much past the Petroleum Age.
Check out sunweb’s site if you don’t believe me. Or look up pictures of the large machines used to mine and process the ores for those solar panels and windmills. And don’t forget the freighters, trains, trucks and factories to get that solar panel from ore to your roof. Ditto for wind, etc..
tahoe1780 on Mon, 3rd Nov 2014 8:28 pm
Consider Obama. Here is a man whose power derives from the fact that his predecessors conquered a huge tract of land by military force, which later happened to have a lot of oil under it. Obama’s more recent predecessors managed to defend that oil-rich land, and used the oil wealth to build up one of the world’s largest militaries. The military defends the land, the land provides the wealth to pay for the military, and the military is used to invade other oil-rich lands.
penury on Mon, 3rd Nov 2014 9:23 pm
Perhaps with constant effort and new tech in about 50 years and 16 days and 30 minutes we will finally be able to conclude our moral crusade and finally free ourselves from the evils being visited on this planet by FF.
Apneaman on Mon, 3rd Nov 2014 9:47 pm
There is still dozens of trillions of dollars of potentially recoverable fossil carbon in the ground. Does anyone seriously think people like Putin or the Koch Bros or Harper or Rex Tillerson or Abbott and the rest are going to let the so called “alternative energy” people take their potential(god given)profits&power without a no holds barred fight? Even the obvious destruction of the biosphere won’t even make them pause and think. Power drunk and insane. Besides, alternative energy is just a distraction to keep the plebs in line for awhile longer. There is no techno-fixes anymore.
Alternative Energy Fetishes and Temples to Technology
http://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2014/08/22/alternative-energy-fetishes-and-temples-to-technology/
Apneaman on Mon, 3rd Nov 2014 10:14 pm
Take a look how China is generating their energy to make and sell us our feel good “green energy”. Think they will just shut down all their newly built, 40 year life cycle, coal fired power plants for the environment? I’m sure most have seen what’s considered acceptable air quality for their own citizens.
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/chinas-growing-coal-use-is-worlds-growing-problem-16999
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/19/us-china-coal-idUSKBN0HE0TU20140919
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/24/world/asia/greenpeace-says-chinas-energy-plans-exacerbate-climate-change.html
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-plants-will-emit-300-billion-tons-of-future-co2/
http://motherboard.vice.com/en_ca/blog/theres-a-coal-base-in-china-the-size-of-la
rockman on Mon, 3rd Nov 2014 10:35 pm
“…and the rest are going to let the…alternative energy people take their potential…profits &
power without a no holds barred fight?”. Yes IMHO. While some claim the Koch’s et al are stifling alt development I haven’t seen any one in the oil patch give a sh*t about the alts let alone get in a fight with them. I’m sure it gives some liberals warm snuggly feelings to wag their fingers at Republicans and instill them with some magical power to suppress alts. But it doesn’t fit any reality out there.
Consider life for the Rockman. On average he spends about 70 hours a week trying to find the next well to drill in Texas. Texas with some of the strongest (perhaps the most substantial) growth in alt (wind) in the country. And the Rockman suffers zero competition from alt energy. The reality: the development of the shale gas plays like the Marcellus significantly hampers his efforts. Completion from electricity from wind? Doesn’t ever crosses his mind. The dumping of all that Canadian oil in the US has been a worry for several years. CA solar? Why would the Rockman allocate one brain cell fretting over that?
I do try to avoid preaching but if anyone thinks the current development of alts in the US is some sort of hindrance to the oil patch just doesn’t understand even the basic dynamics IMHO. As the Rockman has pointed Texas wind, with more capacity then the #2 & #3 states combined, has not REPLACED a single BTU of existing fossil fuel generated electricity.
Kenz300 on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 12:03 am
Climate change is real…….
Around the world nations are moving to alternative energy sources.
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EU Leaders Agree To Tough Carbon Regulations to Spur Renewable Energy Development and Fight Climate Change
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/10/eu-leaders-agree-to-tough-carbon-regulations-to-spur-renewable-energy-development-and-fight-climate-change
——————–
China Turns to Geothermal Energy To Tackle Carbon Emissions
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/09/china-turns-to-geothermal-energy-to-tackle-carbon-emissions
———————-
The Inevitability of Solar
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/09/the-inevitability-of-solar
Apneaman on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 12:12 am
The reason “some claim the Koch’s et al are stifling alt development” is because they are. They don’t even try to hide it. What do you think ALEC is for? As for oil, I never mentioned it, because there is no alternative to it. I was mostly referring to coal and some natural gas which you would had figured if you even just glanced at the links I provided. Sorry rockman, this one ain’t all about you and your little drilling career. You know, I’m a journeyman BoilerMaker – rigger/fitter, but I don’t try and shoe horn it in on every comment for extra points, it’s a fucking job, not who I am. Doesn’t give me a leg up on anyone else when it comes to the big picture. I build boilers and other vessels, I’m not the CEO/CFO of ABB or Babcock & Wilcox or any of the other companies I’ve worked for. Get over yourself.
Davy on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 6:21 am
We are near a paradigm shift where we will “ALL” be scrambling for every and all energy sources. This will be a local race because the vast regional and national grids will become unstable and unreliable. Whole areas will suffer triage from these vast complex grids systems and energy supply distribution networks. In an attempt to maintain the core of power and importance we will see cannibalistic economics. This process will be dysfunctional with irrational outcomes.
If we were smart now we would husband all our resources for a ride down the energy and complexity gradient. This is like a white water raft ride that cannot be controlled only reacted to. If there is any proaction it is the act of carefully preparing the boat before the trip. This should not be an either and or, winner and losers, green or brown, and good or bad that is a BAU disposition that is missing the point of less with less. It will be a matter of food, water, and shelter with a population traumatized and scared.
We really have no idea how, when, and where this is going to shake out but it is apparent when energy intensity and complexity fall population must fall. We know areas that will suffer without complexity and energy intensity. Science is clear about these things. Denial is the problem not science.
Complexity and energy intensity are intricately connected if either one falls the other will fall. If we see a collapsing economy energy intensity will fall and likewise. We will not see our technological and complex global system survive an energy gradient and likewise a collapsing economy will end our energy intensity by ending the application of complexity to extraction.
ulenspiegel on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 8:47 am
Makati wrote: “Or look up pictures of the large machines used to mine and process the ores for those solar panels and windmills. And don’t forget the freighters, trains, trucks and factories to get that solar panel from ore to your roof.”
The largest mining machines are electric BTW, sir, trains are electric too, most trucks with short routes (mines) can be electric too…
Davy on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 8:59 am
Ulen, I spent 25 years in the heavy construction equipment business forget electric taking over the job. It is not going to happen.
steve on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 9:43 am
I have seen trains pull heavy loads electrically….but I think we are running out of time….40 years ago,,, yes, today too late….but that being said humans are tenacious, neurotic creatures so anything can happen….
penury on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 9:49 am
I love the discussion on electric vehicles and equipment used for mining, hauling. transporting. And I really think that the more we cause electric to replace FF the better off we will be. However, I am convinced that there is still a need for enormous amounts of FF in the production of the vehicles, roads they run on,and oh dear the production of the electricity that they consume. At the current time there is no, none, nada, energy source which is capable of replacing FF and we are running out of time and miracles to come up with the replacement. What was the latest estimate” humans are currently using the equivelent of 1.5 earths resources. What cannot continue, will not.
Kenz300 on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 12:58 pm
The fossil fuel industry will say anything and do anything to protect their profits…….. the 1% want it all……….they do not care about you, your family or the planet.
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The Worst Koch-Funded Lies About Climate Change in 90 Seconds • BRAVE NEW FILMS – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0v1DTp0a10&list=PLQ9B-p5Q-YOPOJ9sIfgJ5_XRHFz7IatXL&t=3s
louis wu on Wed, 5th Nov 2014 10:34 am
“The largest mining machines are electric BTW, sir, trains are electric too, most trucks with short routes (mines) can be electric too…”
And those machines are directly tied to the power grid by huge drag lines for the mining machines and the vast infrastructure of metal for the trains which are powered mostly by burning fossil fuels to produce the electricity and make and maintain the machines themselves and infrastructure needed to use and sustain them.Take away the fossil fuel and they all come to a grinding halt.