Are We Entering a Renewable Energy Tipping Point?

68 Comments on "Are We Entering a Renewable Energy Tipping Point?"

J-Gav on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 12:39 pm 



Fantastic! We’re all saved – forever and ever!

dave thompson on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 12:47 pm 



This is the stuff that makes the people have hope for a future that will never come about.

GregT on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 1:07 pm 



They forgot to mention the much lower standards of living associated with a vastly reduced energy allotment per capita. That and the fact that electric power generation is a product of modern industrialism, and modern industrialism itself is a product of the burning of fossil fuels. Never let reality get in the way of a feel good story.

Kenz300 on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 1:18 pm 



Solar Cost Hits World’s New Low, Half the Price of Coal

http://www.ecowatch.com/solar-price-chile-1982242311.html

Wind and solar energy along with battery storage are the future.

How battery-powered homes are unplugging Australia

http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/how-batterypowered-homes-are-unplugging-australia-20150731-giogk2.html

Renewable energy overtakes coal as world’s largest source of power capacity

https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/renewable-energy-overtakes-coal-as-worlds-largest-source-of-power-capacity/

Wind Power Lifting Rig Builders Past Oil’s Downturn

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/09/wind-power-lifting-lift-rig-builders-past-oil-s-downturn.html

Davy on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 1:52 pm 



“Solar power is going to get cheaper every year. Across almost all of the world it will be the obvious choice for power generation within ten years. Overnight storage will generally be provided by batteries, which are also falling sharply in price every year.”

I am not going to say that statement is not true only it is not a valid prediction because there is no way to know where the economy is going exactly. If we have a serious economic decline which is quite possible then solar may be cheap but with no money to pay for it. Traditional fossil fuel sources will be more abundant and already available making them likely cheaper than the expensive manufacturing process for new solar equipment. Existing is cheaper than making something. The sunk cost is already made. If interest rates go up solar will be impacted adversely since solar is naturally as a high initial cost that amortizes out over time.

“What are the key factors that have enabled recent advancements in renewables?”

A significant reason is Chinese has recently manufactured solar equipment at below cost. This will likely not last and it is really nothing more than a mal-investment. This is of course not the only reason. Economies of scale and incremental improvements in product are part of these advances.

We are really talking about systematic issues of the economy and its direction and human lifestyles and attitudes. Eventually solar will face increasing hurdles to integration into the modern grid beyond a point. Storage is not efficient enough to handle the incredible amount of energy that needs to be stored that is if we want to replace fossil fuels in any significant way. It is further unclear even with big advances if solar could ever replicate itself. The amount of new equipment needed to replace our fossil fuel world is mindboggling. I find it little more than fantasy. I am all for solar but let’s keep it real. Until we find a new blueprint for modern civilization I doubt we will see very much advancement of solar after a 45% penetration point.

GregT on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 1:54 pm 



“How battery-powered homes are unplugging Australia”

http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/how-batterypowered-homes-are-unplugging-australia-20150731-giogk2.html

When Jane Whiltsher used to open her power bill it grated.
“I always felt that I was being ripped off,” she says.”
“It’s just the way they operate. It keeps going up and up.”

Two months after having a rooftop solar and battery system installed, it’s a different story.

Whiltsher’s bill has more than halved. She enjoys the novelty of watching her “new toy” transforming the flow of energy around her house, leaving her largely independent of the wires outside.

At approaching $40,000, it hasn’t been a cheap investment. But that’s not the point.

“As far as I am concerned if it takes me off the grid then it’s paid for itself already,” she says.”

What a load of hogwash Kenz…….

dave thompson on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 2:30 pm 



OK great say you have the money and buy into this solar power utopia. What happens when the rest of the world finds out? And they are broke.

rockman on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 4:19 pm 



OK let’s look at Jane’s numbers. First, her bills are less than half. So obviously Jane isn’t off the grid. And we don’t know what shevpaid but her govt study says it typically runs $35 $140 per week. Or $140 to $600 per month. Rather pricey compared to Texas. So let’s just pick a number: $300/month…about 3X the Rockman’s average for his well insulated 2,400 sf town home.

So Jane’s is is cut by “more the half”. Let’s guess it’s been cut 60%. So she’s saving $180/month. $40,000/$180 = 18.5 years.

That can’t be correct. Let’s say it was $600/month and now $200/month…cut by 2/3. So $40,000/$400 = 8.3 years. And that seems like a rather extreme assumptions on total costs and savings IMHO. And let’s not forget: she’ll still be paying $20,000 for the electricity she buys those 8 years. IOW she’ll spend $60,000 to power her home for the next 8 years. That’s a lot of juice. LOL.

So first: I wonder how many Aussies have $40,000 just sitting around earning then no interest. And I wonder wonder how long before Jane starts feeling ripped of her solar installer? LOL.

peakyeast on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 4:44 pm 



@rock: The australian electricity costs about 3x the US price. Danish is 4 times. According to this site:
https://www.ovoenergy.com/guides/energy-guides/average-electricity-prices-kwh.html

They list US @ 12 cent/KWh. Aus @ 29 & DK @ 41 cent.

The current price per KWh is about 2.2 to 2.4 DKR/KWh. 41 cent * 6 = 2.46 Øre. Seems to be correct.

I used about 12K$ for my solar. From the past about 3 years I can conclude: I would have paid so far: Just about 7100$ for electricity (heating and electricity combined). Because of my solar cells I have paid: 1250$. Net savings: 5850$ or 1950$ saved per year.

Payback time: ~6years.

Estimated lifetime: Solarpanels – 25-50 years. Inverters (about 2K$) 5-10 years. But then I do not expect to replace them, but repair myself.

The solarpanels are top japanese quality. So far there is no sign of any degradation visually nor productionwise.

IOW: So far it looks like a very good investment.

Boat on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 4:55 pm 



Yeast,

I read a post saying home solar should be down to a 5 year payback 2018! Glad solar is working out for you.

peakyeast on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 5:41 pm 



@Boat: Thanks!

The payback time is highly dependent on the local subsidies and electricity price.

Today many countries has removed the subsidies partly or entirely.

The cost of inverters has gone down about 30-50%, but I could find quality solarpanels for about 0.3$/W in 2013 – the cost is about the same today, but I suspect cabling, fastening and labor cost more.

I cant see that solar has gotten significantly cheaper during the past 3-4 years. But maybe you can serve me some numbers?

But I can accept payback of 5 years in 2018 in a heavily subsidized environments. – Not that the subsidies are better than the non-paid externalities of FFs (countless millions dead, or chronically ill). I doubt they are extravagant. Perhaps not even high enough to be fair.

makati1 on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 6:13 pm 



Ah, the techie dreamers are out in force. Still looking for those unicorns. LOL

The storage problem is briefly mentioned, and then skipped over. THAT is the elephant in the room for most solar locations. No solutions in sight. Stop the NG/Coal/nuclear backup and watch the systems fail.

Cost? Does it really matter if you have zero income? Zero savings to buy a system with? Zero possibility in the future? Nope. And THAT is the dinosaur in the room. Debt is rampant all over the world and especially in the Western countries where it has been climbing faster than the average income is declining, but seems to have hit its peak.

Solar is good for stand-alone home systems of minimum power. Perhaps enough for lighting, water pumping, and a small fridge. Anything else is dreaming for 99% of the world’s population and always will be.

GregT on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 6:47 pm 



Pay back time for a stand alone system around these parts is currently ~22 years. This does not include battery bank replacement which is a substantial portion of the initial outlay.

makati1 on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 6:55 pm 



GregT, the same pushers of solar never consider the shorter lifetime of their electronic converters and the possibility that converters and batteries will NOT be available when they need replacements. The panels may work forever, but their usefulness will be strictly curtailed.

makati1 on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 6:58 pm 



And, what will they power? Appliances are built to sell, not last. A fridge 8-10 years max. Pumps and fans, maybe a few years more. Light bulbs? Better buy them by the gross.

And EVs? … Sorry, that thought had me laughing so hard I had to wait a few minutes to catch my breath.

rockman on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 7:18 pm 



Peaky – Yep, 5 to 6 year payout matches most of the details I’ve seen for US home solar projects. It’s that $40,000 price tag that sounds like the problem. For that you think it would have supplied 100%.

GregT on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 9:21 pm 



How Much Does it Cost to Install Solar on an Average US House?

At the time of this writing, the installed cost of solar panels was between $7-$9 per watt: A 5 kW system would cost around $25,000-$35,000. Many utility companies offer incentives, and some subsidize as much as 50% of system costs. Even at half the cost, though, a system that generates an average $75 of electricity per month could take a long time to pay for itself.

For example: A system that costs $18,000 has a payback period of about 20 years.

https://www.solarpowerauthority.com/how-much-does-it-cost-to-install-solar-on-an-average-us-house/

Sounds about right. A complete stand alone system in my neck of the woods would cost about 35,000 CAD, or about 26,000 USD, and the payback time is about 22 years. Not including battery replacement, or maintenance.

GregT on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 9:27 pm 



Oh ya, and for those not willing to read the article, it was written on April 25, 2016 at 12:00 am.

antaris on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 9:53 pm 



Mak you are right on the fridge. Ours died during this past summer. We paid the Russian guy $1000.00 and he brought it back to life twice briefly. The third time his torch hit some wires, and that was it for the Maytag wide by side. If your fridge stops working after 5 years , don’t try to fix it. We got almost 10, then had to buck up again after the fix fiasco. Hopefully charge controls and electronics for solar are a better quality than household appliances or FA will work not long after the SHTF.

makati1 on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 10:09 pm 



antaris, not much is made to be repaired today. Even a simple clock is usually sealed in one piece so you cannot even open it up and look. I doubt electronics are much better at lasting.

We bought a Canon printer and after 3 years use, it blinked a “7” in its indicator that basically said, it was finished. The repair shop said it was repairable. A built in shutdown to sell more printers.

makati1 on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 10:10 pm 



unrepairable

GregT on Mon, 21st Nov 2016 10:25 pm 



“Hopefully charge controls and electronics for solar are a better quality than household appliances or FA will work not long after the SHTF.”

A decent quality MPPT charge controller will set you back about 1,500 USD. Fortunately this one, at least, has a ‘limited’ five year warranty.

http://www.wholesalesolar.com/3440485/schneider/charge-controllers/schneider-conext-xw-80-600-mppt-charge-controller

peakyeast on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 3:06 am 



@Rock: Yeah the 40.000 seems excessive. I only saw one battery – so its not the batteries that tilt the outlay.

And yes – I am also surprised it doesnt cover 100%. She must be using AC a lot in a bad house placed in the desert or something.

If I chose to move a fraction of my panels so they had optimum placement I would be 100% covered – and thats including heating in a cold wet country. 🙂

Having a stand-alone system is a nice dream, but the batteries need to be better. I believe I looked into it and reached a conclusion that they needed to quadruple their capacity and viable lifetime for them to be interesting.

peakyeast on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 3:20 am 



@GregT: The stand-alone system. I looked into it. My calculations (from 2012) show that if I had to go off-grid the cost would be approx. 75000$ for the battery park alone.

Even though its extreme and never will pay back I would buy them IF they werent “consumables”. – Lifetime is just too bad. And unlike GHung (if I remember correctly) I am not up to repairing lead-acid batteries indefinitely. I really dislike handling lead+Sulfuric acid.

Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 4:36 am 



How Much Does it Cost to Install Solar on an Average US House?

At the time of this writing, the installed cost of solar panels was between $7-$9 per watt: A 5 kW system would cost around $25,000-$35,000.

Huh, why is that so expensive?!

Last week I completed my first year of owning 6 solar panels (100 x 160 cm) = 6 * 285 W = 1710 watt installation. All-in panels + installation cost (incl inverter):

3000,- euro

No subsidies whatsoever other than 100% feed-in pay-back guarantee (until at least 2020).

Yield after 1 year: 1455 kwh in line with expectations (in Dutch conditions you need to multiply peak-watt=1710 with 0.85 to arrive at yearly yield in kwh).

Accidentally I also received the yearly end bill from the utility company. I was 163 kwh short of being self-sufficient. One panel more would have done the trick, but there was no room for that.

Saved electricity cost: 320,- euro/year.
In other words, payback time 9 years, assuming no maintenance cost (inverter replacement, ca 400,- euro).

Statistically these panels will cover my own life expectancy, so it was a good investment, as well as a comfortable feeling of “being covered” for the likely rough times ahead (assuming feed-in arrangement with the utility company, enforced by the government, will continue to exist).

Now I yo-yo about what to invest in next.
One option is building a glass-house/oriel against the entire 10 m wide facade of my apartment. Price tag 12,000 euro.

Could use that terrace with roof for food production. Here spectacular efficient method of growing potatoes piled up in a garbage bag:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm4QcPQV0Xs
(Dutch language, just quickly browse through to get the simple idea). With 200 gr potatoes/day as base food, you need 73 kg/year/person or 15 garbage bags or 4 x 4 m, that’s half my terrace.

Alternative investment: 10 more hybrid solar collectors for production of both electricity and hot air/water:

https://www.buildinggreen.com/blog/cutting-edge-hybrid-solar-thermal-pv-collector-turkey

Need to do some price and energy-yield calculations first.

Also on the lookout for a very small wood stove to heat a small study of 3 x 3 m as I have several seasons worth of wood after I chopped down all the trees in my garden.

Also in the garden: 4 big bags filled with tree leaves, collected (in the dark.lol) from the streets in my neighborhood. Will be ca. 1 m3 compost in 6 month time. Was 2 hours work.

Who says you can’t survive in the city?

My city:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh_KT7hcw74&t=3s

It is arguably the least attractive city in the Netherlands from an architectural point of view, it’s a pure working city. But the real gold is behind the facades of these factories and laboratories.

Anyway, the Fourth Turning/Big Reset can begin. 😉

brough on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 6:21 am 



Cloggie, I am genuinely interested in your efforts to become more resilent in an ever increasingly uncertain world. I live in the UK and therefore have a similar latitude and climate. Although I’ve no solar panels yet and think the deal you’ve got is very good. So I’ll be over to the Netherlands in the new year to load up the truck with solar panels, as the price you’ve got is very attractive. The use of the grid as your own personel free electricity storage facility is far more valuable than any up-front subsidy. I hope you can extend the deal post 2020. I’ve got 2 glass conservatories on the back of house and saves lots on heating during spring and autumn. But ensure lots of ventillation or you will fry in the summer. I live in a semi-rural position and have wood burning stoves. But forget it, in an urban environment, because if your neighbours all did the same thing, the air pollution in winter would be horrific. Becoming self-sufficient in potatoes is a good idea, but you’ll need plenty of organic fertilizer if you are to keep it up year on year. Leaf mould is great, but may need to add extra nitrogen to get the rapid growth that is required at our latitude.

rockman on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 6:30 am 



Cloggie – Did you install yourself? A friend in Texas looked into it and the estimate was around $25,000. Not sure if that was a 100% supply. But 2 problems. A large portion was the installation labor + profit margin. And being on a coop he couldn’t sell excess into the grid like some Texans do.

Peaky – Also not to confuse that 5 to 6 year payout was for small self installed projects…nothing close go 100% supply. Think about doing such for limited emergency backups.

Davy on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 7:01 am 



My strategy is use the grid and have standalone power. I also use wood to heat with. I am in the process of buying an outdoor wood furnace that I will incorporate solar for the small pumps and solar hot water to compliment the water heating needs in the summer so there is no need for wood to be burned. I am choosing to live a status quo life with the basics for a post status quo life. This is a mix not an either/or thing. If the grid becomes unstable I will have the ability to produce light and low power for other needs. I have heat from locally sourced wood. I am not interested in replicating my status quo life with a standalone system. The economics are not there when grid power is so cheap.

Thinking a standalone system is going to save the climate is bunk too. What will help save the climate is probably nothing but if you want to take some moral action then practice relative sacrifice. Having some solar and lower your ecological foot pint is a beneficial effort for a resilient society and the climate. The biggest thing you can do is drive less and eat locally and seasonally. Do this by relative sacrifice and what I mean by that is use the status quo but use it “lite. The “lite” part is incorporates local and seasonal food and or alternative power to grid power. Use the status quo to leave it is another way of saying downsize with dignity.

If you are trying to replicate the status quo life of affluence thinking alternatives will save you then you will be disappointed. Entropic decay will eventually make an elaborate system unreliably just like the grid. If the grid goes unstable then the civilization that is needed to maintain your elaborate standalone system is unreliable. If you have the resources and want to have the toys spend a lot of money and go completely off the grid. Be like our Ghung board member but remember he is one of the exceptionally talented ones with this stuff. I wish I was as good as him and had the years of preparation. I am also including growing food in the equation. If the global system breaks down I have goat for dinner and a garden.

My point is it is about broad based preparation of which standalone power is only part of it. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. The facts are we are all on a budget and all have relative advantages based on our local. One big advantage I have is wood for example. Some people may be located in a warm climate. Solar is profoundly important but it is not going to save us. The so called “green” prosytalizing we see today with so many climate change activist and alternative energy buffs is based on delusion because they do not incorporate all the other issues related to societal decline into their message. Alternative energy is vital but it will not save us. Entropic decay cannot be overcome by alternatives alone oil is needed and a stable civilization.

Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 7:14 am 



Part 1:

brough,

I got them from here, local supplier and installer in Eindhoven:

https://www.365zon.nl/zonnepanelen/285wp-mono-full-black-embedded-solaredge-jam6k-60-285-pr-bk-se.html

6 x 285,- = 1710,-

Trannergy inverter = 465,-

https://www.zonnepanelen.nl/trannergy-pvi-2300-tl-wifi.html

Installation 800,- (prices euro)

Package deal: 3000,- exactly all in, no hidden costs.

Nice to keep tracking the performance of your own system on a 30-minute basis online. Last year I worked for a client in my home town with a panoramic view over the city. The sport was to estimate in advance how many euro cents were gained “out of thin air” by studying the cloud patterns. After some time you get very good at it. My record: 11 kwh in one day = 2,40 euro.

My garden: 10 m width, 13 m depth. Terrace with tiles along apartment 3 m width. Garden 10 x 10 m.

Have three seasons behind me of gradually setting up a vegetable garden. According to government standards you need 50 m2 to be self-sufficient, so in my case for 2 persons. 1 warm meal a day of 400 gram (potatoes + veggies) for a grownup. This year I have potatoes, beets, carrots, beans, onions. Potatoes and beans are easy and always succeed, even on the poorest of soils. Last year I added 3 m3 bought compost and see, the beets and carrots and onions were willing as well. Next year I will pay real attention to fertilizer to get real big onions as well as cabbage.

But forget it, in an urban environment, because if your neighbours all did the same thing, the air pollution in winter would be horrific.

Before the world’s #9 gasfield was discovered in the Netherlands in 1960, everybody had coal. I wouldn’t dream of burning wood in normal circumstances, but in case of the Fourth Turning…lol
I do have a regular open fire place, decorative function only, with lousy efficiency of perhaps 15%. You can buy very solid stoves for low price:

https://www.praxis.nl/badkamer-keuken-wonen/verwarming/houtkachels-en-accessoires/houtkachels/kubus-houtkachel-5kw/5527672

But even this one is too big (5 kw) for my survival purposes, 1 kw would be more than enough for a study of 3 x 3 m.

Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 7:14 am 



Part 2

Back to the garden. Last year I bought this greenhouse:

http://producten.royalwellkassen.nl/kassen-tunnels/tuinkassen/universal/universal-128

Still has not been set up as I need to remove the 15 tree trunks from my garden first. I was thinking of having them cut like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUgDHTFOoTk

But that’s 500 euro and on top of that it is difficult to get the machine in the garden. So I bought a chain saw for 70,- from amazon.de which was delivered yesterday and will try out next. Motto: every hour spent in the garden is an hour I don’t have to go to the gym (not that I go anyway, but it is the thought that counts).

Once you begin to harvest from your garden you need to store it. Have bought this freezer:

http://www.mediamarkt.nl/nl/product/_bosch-gsn54aw42-1469227.html

…and it is excellent. Solid and very quiet. Extremely energy efficient, only 202 kwh/year. Thinking of buying a second one as the current one is already loaded to the hilt. After all…

“When I find myself in times of trouble”

…Mother Mary probably won’t come to me

…so I can always sell frozen meals to my starving neighbors.

Finally, I bought this generator:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Honda-EU1000i-1000-Watt-Portable-Quiet-Inverter-Parallel-Capability-Generator-/122233229573

(1000 euro for 1000 Watt), to at least keep my freezer(s) going and the pump of my CV. 1 liter petrol = 8 kwh, so 25 liter is enough to keep your freezer going for a year. Use your car fuel tank to acquire the fuel and store the fuel in a shed in the back of the garden. You can store petrol in a steel jerrycan for decades without losing too much fuel quality.

Apart from adding some space heating support I am basically done with prepping. Still thinking of installing a rain barrel. The amount of rain on my rather tiny roof matches precisely my consumption. Not that I expect rain champ Holland to run out of water any time soon, but it is the prepping sport that counts.

For the real hardcore doomers, if everything fails, you can keep yourself comfortably warm with “electric clothes” motor devils use to keep warm at minus 20 Celcius on motor bikes:

http://tinyurl.com/gveu9sr

Electricity you can get from your generator. Stay warm for 3 euro/month by only warming your skin rather than your entire house.

Davy on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 7:30 am 



Clog, it is wonderful what you are doing but I equate you relatively to little different from 3rd world subsistence farmers. You both are self-sufficient but not beyond a point. That point is global decay, decline, and destructive change or IOW a collapse process. I am not sure what “beyond” is but it is not far away. It is also a matter if your power systems fail or your garden fails you are then looking to your neighbors. 3rd world subsistence farms are fine until their crops fail then they are displaced unless they have some savings or charity nearby. 3rd world subsistence farmers will not be subsistent if migrants from cities nearby move to their local. They live on a razor edge of survivability. All this is relatively the same for you and yes “ME”. We are all exposed and some more than others. No one is safe. What you are doing is wonderful and great but don’t be cocky. The same is true of your extreme boasting about Europe and her sustainability. Europe has so many problems as to be no different than anywhere else.

Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 8:12 am 



@rockman

Fully installed for me, not by me. Four men build a scaffold of 6 m high, climbed on it and had the 6 panels installed in no-time (one hour perhaps). Most time went into crawling under the wooden floor under my living room to connect the panels to the inverter, installed in the “meterkast” (tiny space where the utility meters are installed).

@Davy

As you know I am less pessimistic than you. I would expect more of a thirties type depression, with perhaps likely ethnic disturbances in both the US and Europe. In the long run it is very well possibly to run a decent society on renewable energy sources. Yes, it would look very different from the old one, much more “light-weight”, with the old combustion engine based economy largely replaced by IT-networks and localized economy.

@brough
You don’t need motor gear, this is perhaps more appropriate:

http://www.countrysidemarketplace.co.uk/product/heated-sports-gilet,54662722

“Oriel” was perhaps the wrong word, what I meant was this:

http://www.snoekwonen.nl/site-snoek/assets/files/2244/glazen-erhardt-overkapping1.jpg

It is essential that the space is hermetically closed to capture and keep as much as possible sun warmth in the winter. And indeed, there need to be doors to prevent from becoming fried in the summer.

I noticed that it is possible even in Holland to have two harvests per season if you plan it properly. Having a greenhouse really helps to prolong the season with one month at least. Start to grow everything in the greenhouse and wait until everything has max size and only then plant them in the soil and immediately begin to grow the second batch in the greenhouse, ensuring max. utilization of the limited space (in my typical Dutch case):

http://tinyurl.com/hp6rwgx

Davy on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 8:27 am 



Clog let me phrase it my way back at you “As you know I am more realistic than you.” I am not a pessimist nor an optimist. I grab on to either depending on reality testing. I love being optimistic and pessimism feels good when it is honest and allows good decisions. Both pessimism and optimism allow good decisions if properly engaged. If you are preaching an agenda then you don’t have that maneuver. In such cases you use extremes of position to discredit your opposition and enhance your position. There is a place for competition of meaning and it is called politics. In our case here on this board it should be about the truth. The world could give a shit about us and we are insignificant except to ourselves. In this regard we should be honest to ourselves and to others here. What I can’t stand is hollow fantasy. Fantasy is fun in a book or art but with survival it is a different story.

GregT on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 9:18 am 



Not sure what you are going on about cloggie? The Netherlands are further north than where I live in BC.

From our local electric power authority:

Do your research on the practicality of going solar in B.C.

Solar energy is an affordable alternative energy that can be used to help heat and power your home or business. However, there are some important considerations around the use of both solar photovoltaic and solar thermal systems in British Columbia that you should be aware of.

While the cost of installing a solar photovoltaic (PV) system for electricity generation has dropped dramatically in recent years, for homeowners in B.C. connected to the BC Hydro electrical system, it would take at least 20 years to recoup the investment at today’s average electricity rates.

Solar photovoltaic costs, considerations in B.C.

The cost of installing solar PV systems has declined steadily over the last decade as a result of technology improvements and more efficient systems yielding a higher power output.

In B.C., a 1 kW solar PV system, south facing and tilted with no shading, will generate about 1,200 kWh per year or about 30,000 kWh over its 25 year lifetime. This is taking into account an industry average solar panel efficiency degradation rate of 0.5% per year.

At a turnkey installation cost of about $3,000, it would take you over 25 years to recoup your investment at today’s average electricity rates.

https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/residential/building-and-renovating/switch-to-solar-energy.html

Kind of a moot point for me however, as grid tied systems are not allowed in my area. Furthermore, the more people that install grid tied systems, the less money the utilities companies will make in order to maintain the grid. At some point in time, grid tied will no longer be an option. In your area 2020 perhaps? Or in about 3 years time?

That is why I have opted for a small stand alone system for refrigeration, my water supply, and some lighting.

Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 9:37 am 



Do your research on the practicality of going solar in B.C.

In Canada it makes no sense at all to have solar panels, as you lucky people have all the hydro power you need.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=81000
Per capita energy consumption in 1000 kwh/year:

CA 14.3
NL 6.9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Canada

Canada has 63.7% coverage from hydro, which is just as renewable as solar.

In Holland we have none of that.

Electricity price NL 22 euro cent.

CA 7-14 Canadian dollar cent = 4.9-9.8 euro cent or say 7.4 euro cent on average or three times as cheap as in Holland.

See?

That’s why we in Holland have a generally acknowledged payback time of 9 years for solar systems and 20 in Canada.

Canada does not need solar. Canada is fine as it is. Canada, like Norway, should invest in mountain basins located in high altitude and rent the storage space to the rest of the Americas.

Like in Davy’s Ozark-Missouri:

http://tinyurl.com/zoctbbz

This is much, much better than using local dirty chemical batteries that can be charged perhaps 1000 times max. Hydro storage can be charged an infinite number of times.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/norway-wants-to-offer-hydroelectric-resources-to-europe-a-835037.html

We are already “using” the Norwegians for that purpose:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NorNed

GregT on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:00 am 



OK I see. Your electricity costs are huge. Ours are also going up at an alarming rate.

“Energy Minister Bill Bennett and BC Hydro CEO Charles Reid announced a 28 per cent electricity rate hike over five years, with a nine per cent jump coming April 1, 2014.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-hydro-rates-to-increase-28-per-cent-over-5-years-1.2440437

Much of our infrastructure was built out over 40 years ago, and is in dire need of maintenance, repairs, and upgrades. On top of the above mentioned rate increases, BC Hydro has also gone to time of use billing.

In BC cloggie, over 90% of our electricity is generated from hydro. As renewable as it gets, but still not renewable at all, without fossil fuel inputs.

https://www.bchydro.com/energy-in-bc/our_system/generation.html

brough on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:03 am 



Cloggie

Many thanks for links.
However,might draw a line at electric under-wear.

I’m still to invest solar panels.
Taking on board all comments on above debate.

I,m thinking initial capital and payback time is probably irrelevant. May be solar panels are going to make me more dependent on the grid than ever. Making it even more painful if/when the grid goes down.

GregT on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:10 am 



“As renewable as it gets, but still not renewable at all, without fossil fuel inputs.”

And also, if I might add, a healthy, functioning, growing economy. Which also requires the input of an exponentially growing input from affordable, fossil fuels.

brough on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:23 am 



You’re right GregT
I should’nt be thinking about the cost of delivering solar panels to me personally, but the cost to the planet.
So how much energy is required to manufacture, deliver and install a solar panel?
And how much energy will it deliver over 20 years and my latitude ?

Ghung on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:25 am 



brough said; “I,m thinking initial capital and payback time is probably irrelevant. May be solar panels are going to make me more dependent on the grid than ever. Making it even more painful if/when the grid goes down.”

Irrelevant if you can afford it or change your priorities. Then, again, being fully grid-tied is an illusion of independence. Off-grid is a completely different mindset; we’ve become less and less grid-dependent in many ways as time has passed. I don’t pretend that we are grid-free in all aspects of our lives, but way ahead of the gridweenies. Once we discovered we could do this and live pretty well, we build on that in other aspects of our lives. Becomes habit-forming. Of course, our systemic approach has given us options that an off-grid electric-only system can’t do by itself. Passive solar home heating/cooling could last for many decades, and has no grid reliance at all, once implemented (excepting things like property taxes).

GregT on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:29 am 



The planet is already f-cked brough. If you are concerned about maintaining a source of electricity if/when the economy finally goes tits up, I would invest in a stand alone system if I were you. Refrigeration is the one thing that I see as being more or less a necessity. Food and water are rather important for one’s survival.

Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:52 am 



As renewable as it gets, but still not renewable at all, without fossil fuel inputs.

I’m going to give up on trying to convince you that this is not true. Energy=energy.

A kwh from oil is as good as a kwh from wind/solar/hydro. Any other attitude would be kwh-racism and we are all glad we are not like that.lol

brough on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 10:57 am 



Ghung
Here in the UK the climate is such that I’ve more or less got keeping warm in the winter under control. With log burners and glass conservatories attached to the back of the house. What I need now is off-grid electricity.

Ghung on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 11:11 am 



Clog said; “A kwh from oil is as good as a kwh from wind/solar/hydro.”

Spoken like a true gridweenie. I can’t drill up and refine my own oil, but I can harvest sunlight, and there is little effort or ongoing expense involved most of the time. Of course, if you are utterly reliant upon complex top-down systems for your energy sources, you think like a Clog.

I have no expectations, either way, as to what the rest of you do. Right now, my house is warm and the sun is shining through our south-facing glass and warming the slab floor. The solar hot water system is quietly heating the water in the tank, and the solar water pump is humming along moving potable water to the tank on the ridge; gravity will bring it back down to my faucets. No monthly payments; no taxes on that income, and very little human interaction required, day to day. So, A kwh from oil is not as good as a kwh from wind/solar/hydro, in my world at least.

peakyeast on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 11:28 am 



Yes – a few batteries for backup could be useful. But in the 3 years I have lived here nothing has happened. All cables has been dug down so no more disconnections from storms.

In my life I think it has been a handful of times altogether that the electricity has been gone. Mostly for minutes – a few times some hours.

My system is expensive because of the amount of panels. 142 m2 covered. This is because of the position of my house. E-W. No south slanting surfaces – suboptimal positioning costs about 40%, but theoretically the panels will last longer from reduced solar induced stresses. So I have about 9KWp installed.

My plan is to buy another small solar system that will purely run the batteries – no connection to the grid. However with an automatic switch to grid for the appliances running on it – like freezer and fridge. This will save the fees for transport on the grid – no much, but still some. Besides it will put me solidly into a plus-energy house when combined with the 20m2 airheating-solar collector and 5 m2 of vacuum tubes to the heating and hot water. This was my plan from the start. A “self-sufficient” house seen on a yearly basis. Next step is for the house to produce enough electricity to pay for rent. – Or IOW the self-sufficient self-paying house.

Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 11:37 am 



Spoken like a true gridweenie… and very little human interaction required, day to day.

Not everybody feels the need to live like Catweazle like you do:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1ho8di4ywQ

Electrickery!

Last time I checked the name of this site was peak-oil, not peak-grid.

The problem is with fossil fuel (depletion, CC), not with the grid, a fine invention from the end of the 19th century. Living off the grid only makes sense during the transition from fossil to renewable or in times of (civil) war. In the western world, the grid worked magnificently reliable for more than a century.

But now we need a new grid, one that is bi-directional, the “smart grid”, not unlike the internet, where “packages of energy” can come from any location in a vast, typically continental, area:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwRTpWZReJk
(US gov)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB4-mBQPd7k

Yeah, yeah, techie wet dream. [roll eyes]

Ghung on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 11:44 am 



Clog says; “Not everybody feels the need to live like Catweazle like you do:…”

Fact is, Cloggo, you have no idea how I live. I’ve had visitors who refused to believe they were in an off-grid home because they couldn’t tell the difference until I showed them.

Ghung on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 11:46 am 



Clog; “But now we need a new grid, one that is bi-directional, the “smart grid”…”

Speak for yourself. YOU need a new grid because you’re a gridweenie.

Davy on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 11:53 am 



“kwh from oil is as good as a kwh from wind/solar/hydro.” This is just not true in the real world. In the fantasy world of a theoretical discussion maybe. The real world consists of a hardwiring and software of infrastructure with networks inhabited by humans with attitudes. What may be in the planning or lab stage is not the real world so to speak. Scale is what matters and if it can’t scale then it is not realistic. This scale is cost, time, and quantity. The reason green proselytization is so fictional it is based mainly upon scaling up existing achievements along with technological progress yet to be realized. It also suffers from the idea a global economy will remain a constant with economies of scale and healthy capital markets. This is techno-hubris along with predictions using intellectually lazy constants. The sooner we admit to limits with energy sources the sooner we can realistically start addressing new living arrangements. In the meantime there will be unnecessary malinvestment in a way of life with no future. This is a danger considering we have an underfunded lifeboat fund for the collapse of modern man.

Cloggie on Tue, 22nd Nov 2016 12:00 pm 



Scale is what matters and if it can’t scale then it is not realistic.

It is realistic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5tBrSRzqJI

Q.E.D.