Highlights
- On a global level, the potential for renewable energy is more than sufficient.
- Problems emerge on a regional level, however, especially in developing Asia and Africa.
- Renewable energy technology forcing in these regions can have serious socio-economic consequences.
Introduction
We often see images like the one below which imply that the potential of renewable energy is essentially limitless. Thus, if we only had the will, we could easily power the world with clean and everlasting renewable energy.
Solar PV is generally viewed as the most limitless of all the renewable energy options. The little squares on the map below shows just how easy it is to power the world with solar.
The reality is, however, that realistic renewable energy potential is some orders of magnitude lower than these simplistic illustrations.
Firstly, areas covered by urban developments, forests, protected zones, ice, dunes or rock need to be excluded. In addition, areas with excessive slope or elevation are also not eligible build sites. After these eliminations, only areas with a sufficiently strong solar irradiation and wind speeds can be considered.
From the remaining land area, only a small fraction can be used before serious social resistance or natural habitat interference is encountered. For example, only about 1-2% of available land area is covered by onshore wind in European countries like Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, but these issues are already becoming significant.
All of these factors have recently been quantified in a very interesting study published in the Elsevier journal “Global Environmental Change”. Findings from this study are further discussed below.
Globally – more than enough
Even after all of these realistic assumptions, the total global wind and solar resource still easily meets projected demand by the year 2070 even under the most pessimistic assumptions (the dark bands in the graphs).
It is clear that PV, CSP and offshore wind hold the greatest potential. Onshore wind has a much smaller potential, however, especially under low (3%) and medium (6%) land availability assumptions. PV on buildings also has quite a large potential in the year 2070 due to assumptions of large urban buildouts and large gains in solar panel efficiency (35% in 2070).
The projected electricity demand by 2070 is set within the range of 24-40 GJ/person/year. For perspective, the average American currently consumes about 44 GJ of electricity per year and electricity accounts for only about 20% of final energy consumption.
Regionally – problems arise
Unlike hydrocarbon fuels, electricity is not easily tradeable between different world regions. It is therefore very important to assess renewable energy resource availability on a regional basis. The following highly informative graphic tells the story:
It is clear that only North America, developing Europe and Australia have access to a well-balanced mix of renewable energy resources with more than enough potential. A well-balanced mix of resources is important to minimize the effects of intermittency in order to allow for higher renewable energy market shares. For example, the positive effect of mixing wind and solar in terms of preserving more value with increasing market share is shown below (the y-axis illustrates the value of generated electricity where 1 is the average market value):
When deploying only wind or only solar PV, the solar PV option is especially challenging. Because solar’s variability is very pronounced and highly correlated within a reasonable distance, its value falls rapidly with increasing market share. This is illustrated below:
Offshore wind and rooftop solar are about twice as expensive as onshore wind and utility-scale PV for obvious reasons. In addition, the development of CSP has been slower than anticipated. It should be mentioned, however, that the low-cost inclusion of thermal energy storage in CSP significantly increases its value.
Given these considerations, most regions around the world will have a very tough time achieving high market shares of renewable energy. The two most populous regions in 2070: Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will have to rely heavily on solar power. If solar thermal technology can be greatly improved, this will help Sub-Saharan Africa, but South Asia will have to rely almost completely on solar PV – mostly the expensive distributed kind. North Africa and the Middle East face similar challenges.
The highly populous East Asian, South-East Asian and South American regions can achieve greater balance if they heavily rely on expensive offshore wind. South-East Asia will be especially dependent on offshore wind together with EU Europe.
It should be noted that further refinement of the data to a country or state level will further accentuate these challenges. The situation outlined above assumes lots of long distance electricity lines and excellent performance by politicians to establish cross-border regional electricity markets.
Special challenges for the developing world
The challenges outlined above are further augmented in the developing world, especially Asia and Africa which may well be home to 80% of the world population by the end of this century:
These regions and their enormous populations still have a lot of industrialization to do. Industrialization is critical to give these people a reasonable quality of life, to shield them against the effects of climate change, and to naturally curb population growth. Unfortunately, industrialization is also an incredibly expensive and resource intensive undertaking. Insisting on driving industrialization primarily through renewable energy will therefore come at a tremendous cost in terms of quality of life, especially given the challenges outlined in the previous section.
As a simple example, I estimated the effects of renewable energy technology forcing on economic growth in India as an example at the bottom of this article. The example showed that deployment of only solar and wind to grow Indian electricity production to support economic growth would cut the Indian growth rate in half. After 20 years of this practice, the Indian economy would literally be only half the size it could otherwise have been. This situation will be further worsened given the fact that South Asia will have to rely heavily on expensive distributed solar PV which will rapidly lose value as market share increases. Such a development strategy is simply not going to happen unless rich nations finance the necessary subsidies. And that is not going to happen any time soon.
Final word
This article was definitely not written to write off renewable energy. As often stated before, I wholeheartedly support moderate wind and solar deployment in regions where they make sense. For example, the US is one country where renewable energy makes a lot of sense due to its vast available land areas, high quality wind and solar resources, and affluent population.
Wind and solar technology forcing in regions with much lower potential and much poorer populations is a completely different story though. I fear that this strategy will be highly inefficient at best and disastrous at worst.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 6:03 am
Agree largely with the conclusions in this article. There is no long-term energy problem, at least not for the “developed world”.
Bye, bye archaic Olduvai Gorge doomerist fudamentalism.
Bye, bye “renewable energy is an extension of oil” BS.
Bye, bye peak-oil, who cares.
It may admittedly be an roller coaster ride to get to 100% renewable, even for the West, but by 2070 the transition will be completed. It will be a different world, but we won’t be living in cages.
And even this article may be too pessimistic. There is still massive potential for further cost reduction, especially in the field of PV and thin film technology. At some point the price per m2 could approach that of the cellophane you wrap your cold chicken meal left over in for storage in the fridge.
Wind energy same story. Offshore is said to be more expensive than onshore, but this could change in the future. On sea you don’t have the cost of expensive soil, you don’t need to build and maintain roads, but instead ram a pipe in the sea floar and you’re good:
https://youtu.be/JV9PykR5bHo
During my cycle trip to Sweden on the ferry from Cuxhaven to Brunsbuettel I noticed that the Germans have such a ship as well. The Dutch government has decided to build thousands of windturbines in the Northsea using this method which allows to setup the foundation of a new wind turbine in a day. Continue to do this during a decade and you have produced a new energy base.
Here the full production cycle of such an offshore wind park:
https://youtu.be/Q65mgPeygC8
Europe has meanwhile a fully integrated elecricity grid. The challenge is now to build hydro storage capacity, mainly in Norway and subsea cables to transport electricity. Several cables between Holland, Britain and Germany to Norway already exist, are operational and very profitable. More are planned.
During my cycle trip through Denmark I could see first hand that Denmark is indeed wind energy country #1 in the world, turbines are everywhere and wind blowing most of the time, thank God from the SW, that is in my back, so I only had to deal with slopes. The idea that Denmark is a flat country is a lie. Only Holland really is. Isolated Denmark is a rich country without resources, proving that a renewable future is very well possible.
baha on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 6:43 am
There is a fallacy here between price and value. To say that the value of PV generated power goes down with market share is incorrect. The price of the power produced on the open market goes down, the value to me as I power my home is unchanged. What do I care about the price of electricity if I don’t buy any from the grid?
Although I like the message of limited growth.
Davy on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 6:53 am
Grandiose is not the future and that is what most renewable advocates are. They assume a status quo environment or an adaptive one in a decline situation. They project their analysis out years to goal seek their results. The dismiss diminishing returns and limits as only applying to fossil fuels. They assume normal economic velocities to allow markets and governments to create results. They dismiss the pollution and disruption the technology represents and paint it as green when it isn’t.
Renewables are a bridge to collapse. The meaning here is they will accommodate collapse better because of the diversity they offers. The grid and economy will likely destabilize and this will prevent renewables from a much trumpeted break-out. Renewables will never self-replicate because they cannot even cover their real cost. It is fossil fuel subsidies that make renewables happen when one considers the fossil society and economy that delivers renewables.
We are likely going to continue to experience demand destruction for a variety of reasons. It will be this demand destruction that affects renewables the most and this will happen in two ways. One way is the likely end of growing capex investments in renewables. Renewables are front loaded with costs with a payback period. This makes them difficult to finance in a downturn. Finance becomes more difficult has the term increases and the payback is extended outwards. The other critical element is deflation that will make existing energy resources cheaper and more competitive. Fossil fuels will be needed less with less economic activity. This will make them redundant and drive their cost down. They will be turned to because of their cost differential. Governments are attempting to reduce carbon but for how long? When an economic crisis is main stream we are not going to see the same policies. There is the will now but will there be the will later? I doubt it.
I am very pro renewables and EV’s but I am a realist about them. We need as many of these as we can produce before very soon we will not be making them. We need this equipment over poor economic production like 300HP cars and or more expensive NUK plants as an example. We don’t need any more roads and or football stadiums as further examples. What we will need is for people to have lights and heat. We are still going to need transport.
What we are facing and likely very soon is a profound drop in affluence and economic activity. The only reasons we have 7BIL people is economic activity and affluence. Reduce these two factors and you have an adjustment coming of less population and less consumption. Reduce these factors too quickly and we have a die off. Renewables are a bridge to mitigation and adaptation of the degree and duration of the collapse process. This is especially true with the simple, cheap, and less complex type renewables. The rich nations are going the wrong way with development of renewables. We need them decentralized and end-user focused and not centralized and complex. Europe is particularly vulnerable having so many countries barely able to manage together relying on a grid that is tired to each other.
I am buying renewables and I am soon going to purchase a PHEV. I didn’t want a new car but I am being forced to take a buy back on my VW diesel. I am also buying renewables. I am getting another system for my cabin. This is a small system and I still intend to be on the grid. I currently have a solar only system for my main work barn. I believe in renewables but I don’t believe in the fantasy of a renewable world. Our world is going back to pre-modern with some modern taken along for the ride. Get a grip on reality and embrace renewables for what they are. A shiny world of solar powered status quo is just more fantasy which the world has too much of already.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 8:09 am
If you reject technology, you will indeed miss out on grandiosity.
Standing statically upright with your hands in your pockets, verify that you still have two balls all day, that’s for the third world.
Grandiosity is the purpose of life.
eugene on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 8:41 am
“Potentials”. Nice word. Not tightly connected to reality but what the hell. World’s problems solved in half a page. Meantime, global climate is in rapid transition, global debt levels are astronomical, million a week are moving to cities, 1.5 million new people a week, California is transitioning back to desert and the list is way too long to even state.
Makes me think of a man I worked with once. Severe alcohol problem and living in the streets. Whole time he was drawing designs of the nice, middle class house/yard he was going to build when sober. In fact, not all that much different from the one in the article. Left treatment and saw him couple of months later. Asked him how it was going. Gotta come back he said. What changed your mind. Giving blowjobs for a drink was his answer. “Potentials” is an empty word.
shortonoil on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 8:53 am
“Grandiosity is the purpose of life. “
It may be the purpose of self servicing, self centered, nihilists, and most sociopaths but the remainder of the population could care less. Those are what are referred to as normal humans. Napoleon, Caesar, and Adolf were not normal people. With our civilization now staring into the abyss the only thing grandiose is how far it is to the bottom.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 9:07 am
Romans were grandiose without a drop of oil.
And so were the Europeans when they crawled from under the tomb stone called Christianity and corresponding dark Middle Ages and began to take interest in the world around them again, rather than ISIS style obsessions with non-existing entities such as afterlife and heaven.
I bet that secretly shortonoil considers bossom palls Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin normal people.
I have said it before: America = oil.
Most Americans can’t imagine a future without it.
Oil is strongly tied to the magnificent success of America in the 20th century. And now that the oil party is over, in the American mind the entire party is over.
I beg to differ. Grandiosity is best served with constrained conditions, not abundance.
The future you will get is the one you profess.
You are what you say.
ghung on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 9:42 am
Cloggie said; “During my cycle trip through Denmark I could see first hand that Denmark is indeed wind energy country #1 in the world…”
Actually, just Texas has more installed capacity. Per Wikipedia:
Denmark – 5,070 MW (2015) #10 globally
Texas – 17,713 MW
US – 74,472 MW
China – 145,104 MW
Seems Denmark is #10 in the world. Couldn’t find total production for 2015, but still… Anyway, Denmark may now have the highest percentage from wind in terms of total production. Kudos.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_by_country#Installed_windpower_capacity
Sissyfuss on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 9:45 am
You are at what level your brain funtions, Clogged Arteries. To paraphrase Ape, grandiosity is lifestyle of your typical egomaniacal cancer monkey.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 10:19 am
Ghung, Texas is not a country.
Not yet.
And when I mean country #1 I obviously meant to say per capita:
http://www.renewablesinternational.net/per-capita-ranking-of-countries-for-wind-and-solar/150/537/88470/
The Danes, a very smart peaceful (hint, hint) pioneering people took a very wise decision early on to put all their cards on renewables. They are still one of the richest countries in the world, who brought themselves relatively speaking into energy safety.
ghung on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 10:23 am
Clog said ; ” I obviously meant to say per capita…”
Not obvious at all. You didn’t say that.
regardingpo on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 10:43 am
It’s refreshing to see someone as deluded as Cloggie on this site. He seems very blissful, which is no surprise since ignorance is bliss lol.
Davy on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 10:55 am
Clog, Denmark is not a real nation. It is too small. It is like saying Rhode Island is a real state. I believe Missouri has a similiar GDP. Missouri is a middle size state that I would never consider a nation. Let’s keep proportionality or we get twisted ideas that suffer grandiosity.
sunweb on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 10:57 am
‘Bye, bye “renewable energy is an extension of oil” BS.’
Cloggie has a magic wand to make these devices, their auxiliary equipment, the vehicles to install, the vehicles to maintain, the multitude of equipment associated, the buildings where these are manufactured, the equipment at the mining pits for resources, the chemicals for making and cleaning, and more.
Will energy for all this list be sequestered somewhere? Will there be dedicated devices only for the list?
That is a hell of a magic wand that Tinderbell loaned him.
Reality bites. Look at the videos: http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2015/04/solar-devices-industrial-infrastructure.html They are from the industries themselves.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 11:01 am
Ghung, I didn’t say that I meant in absolute terms either.
People of average intelligence simply understand these things without explaining.
Denmark (5.6 million) has four times the amount of wind energy per capita as the US (330 million).
To compare these countries in absolute terms is ridiculous.
The example of Denmark is important, also for the US, because it shows that a developed country can very well adopt a considerable chunk of renewable energy in its total energy palette, provided of course you invest your money in these things and not in weapons to destroy other nations. We are not going to mention names here.
But the truth is that commissar ghung has morphed into my private little stalker just because I do not support the historic lies the US empire is built upon. And volunteered to morph in my side-kick and punch ball. Ghung should be invented if he didn’t already exist.
Keep it coming ghung!
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 11:04 am
Definitely a lot of wind coming out of Denmark.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 11:12 am
“Will energy for all this list be sequestered somewhere? Will there be dedicated devices only for the list?”
That energy will be provided by the renewable energy sources build in the past with fossil fuel.
It is called energy transition.
And if you keep insisting that some maintenance devices need oil, we can produce that for you using biomass. Everybody happy.
Sunweb, I would advice you to invest a little time in trying to grasp the EROEI concept.
Here a video of a fully automated solar panel factory:
https://youtu.be/CiYfcZJmBNE
I bet that all these robots function on electricity, not on diesel. That electricity could be generated by panels this factory produced the day before.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 11:21 am
Davy, Denmark existed long before America was discovered. If Denmark is not a nation I do not know what is.
Variables like car ownership or wind energy per capita are perfectly scalable. If Americans can build power stations, they can build wind turbines.
It is a matter of choice, of priorities.
But again, for Americans oil is an essential part of their culture and history. Oil is used to run big machines, wind turbines are for sissies… or something.
Davy on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 11:28 am
Clog, my point is keep your comparisons balanced and equitable. Clog, Native Americans would disagree with you. You always forget the people your people raped and pillage in the name of greed and the lust of conquest. We can lump the Dutch into that category like all the other Europeans.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 11:40 am
Not sure what this has to do with renewable energy.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 12:00 pm
“You always forget the people your people raped and pillage in the name of greed and the lust of conquest. We can lump the Dutch into that category like all the other Europeans.”
We paid good money to the Indians for Manhattan: 60 guilders.
No raping or pillaging:
https://goo.gl/images/b4Dtr8
On the other hand we bought 500,000 slaves on African slave markets from Africans and sold them on American slave markets to Americans.
You could argue that slavery was the best thing that ever happened to Africans. If it hadn’t happened, Africans would still be stone age cannibals.
Don’t send us flowers.
sunweb on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 12:36 pm
Clogged – You really are dense. Your video answers none of the questions I posed, in fact it underlines them. As for ERoEI:
A paper recently published in Energy Policy by Ferrucio Ferroni and Robert J. Hopkirk and titled Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) for photovoltaic solar systems in regions of moderate insolation. They used a similar methodology thart Charles Hall and Pedro Prieto used in their study for 4 GW in Spain. That is, they considered not only the usual energy inputs for modules and its components and/or some immediate accesories to them, but also some societal sine qua non energy input expenses for solar systems and concludes that in these regions (countries like Germany and Switzerland), the EROI is 0.85:1.
Scientific studies show it takes years to payback the energy used in solar electric devices. EROI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) says it takes energy – mining, drilling, refining, transporting, installing, maintenance, and replacement parts – to make the devices necessary to capture solar energy.
Spain’s Photovoltaic Revolution: The Energy Return on Investment by Prieto, Pedro A., Hall, Charles 2013.
http://www.springer.com/energy/renewable+and+green+energy/book/978-1-4419-9436-3
and http://energyskeptic.com/2013/tilting-at-windmills-spains-solar-pv/
and B o o k R e v i e w : E n e r g y i n A u s t r a l i a – P e a k O i l , S o l a r P o w e r , a n d A s i a’ s E c o n o m i c G r o w t h by G r a h a m P a l m e r http://www.springer.com/energy/renewable+and+green+energy/book/978-3-319-02939-9
Spain’s Photovoltaic Revolution presents the first complete energy analysis of a large-scale, real-world deployment of photovoltaic (PV) collection systems representing 3.5 GW of installed, grid-connected solar plants in Spain. Prieto and Hall conclude that the EROI of solar photovoltaic is only 2.45, very low despite Spain’s ideal sunny climate. Germany’s EROI is probably 20 to 33% less (1.6 to 2), due to less sunlight and efficient rooftop installations.
“Solar advocates can learn from this analysis . . . “ Not looking at the reality of EROI “is not good science and leads to wasted money and energy that could have been better spent preparing more wisely for declining fossil fuels in the future.”
This study does not detail the environmental destructive mining, toxic chemicals or air and water pollution necessary to get the materials for manufacturing and installing solar devices. It is the sun not the devices that is renewable, green and sustainable.
We always need a good joke here. Thanks.
Boat on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 12:39 pm
Clog,
“You could argue that slavery was the best thing that ever happened to Africans. If it hadn’t happened, Africans would still be stone age cannibals.”
It’s thinking like that that causes conflict. No man should be subservent to another.
paulo1 on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 12:40 pm
Actually, living simpler is pretty rewarding. Grandiose, it isn’t, however, maybe Man’s quest for bigger and more complex has served its practical function for now. There was a time when that focus seemed to be required for survival and prosperity. Now, the opposite might be true.
Living standards have never been better in NA, for even the poorest among us. Quality of life, on the other hand, has been in rapid decline for decades. There are many reasons why this is now such a medicated society. We are losing our way in complexity.
Hello on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 1:01 pm
Clog: If it hadn’t happened, Africans would still be stone age cannibals.
Sorry, dude. But a bunch of nike shoes and wearing jeans down at your knee level does make no man out of an ape.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 1:10 pm
Sunweb, you are a one-trick pony.You keep peddling these dubious Pietro and Hall data for years now, selected by you to “prove” the point that solar won’t work.
There are many other studies that show that modern solar panels in favorable environments like Italy have much higher EROEI values.
Here an article that gives an overview of more than 200 EROEI studies, arriving at an average EROEI value of 10-15, strongly dependent on location. And just like in the semiconductor field, expect improvements with every passing year.
http://rameznaam.com/2015/06/04/whats-the-eroi-of-solar/
ghung on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 1:14 pm
I’m pretty sure the conversation (and the site?) has reached rock bottom.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 1:22 pm
Some people have difficulty understanding that the world is moving away from the assumptions of the US empire and globalism. Not unlike what the Soviets had to endure during their last years.
A world view coming apart.
This is not a good time for lefties.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 1:26 pm
You have an opinion on the potential of renewable energy, ghung?
Or do you prefer to check opinions on moral content and in line with potential correctness as defined by the ADL, Soros and you family in law?
Davy on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 2:05 pm
Clog, you forget scale both in time and penetration. Renewables are too late to the game and they do not have the energy density per economic unit. This is especially true with overpopulation and overconsumption showing us clearly in overshoot territory.
Systematically we have crested the complexity curve and now we are in the inertia of decay. There is no overt examples of this because it is pervasive and all inclusive. The condition is being manifested daily in ever increasing frequency. We are in a vicious cycle of demand destruction clearly seen with deflation and physical decay. Renewable energy can never power through that inertia. I doubt cheap fossil fuels could if we were to find a huge deposit of high grade oil. We are toast for too many reasons for humble renewable to ever make a dent in the doom.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 2:27 pm
What does that mean… “too late?”
The technology is developed, now it is a matter of investment choises. As the article states, the supply fom the sun is abundant. Overconsumption? We do not need renewable energy to enable overconsuption. Let overconsumption implode. I do not believe in renewable plug-and-play either, but there is no alternative. By 2070 we will have a fully implemented renewable energy base in several developed countries, but with a far lower energy consumption footprint than now. But consumption patterns will vastly change. Broadband IT-communication will large replace unnecessary moving around of people.
And again, there is a larger fossil fuel window than previously assumed. Technology will ensure that, environment be damned.
We will see.
JuanP on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 2:38 pm
Cloggie, There are a few very small countries like Costa Rica, Denmark, and Uruguay that have been blessed with an abundance of renewable energy sources and have had the opportunity and intelligence to develop them so that they provide a significant amount of the energy consumed there. I don’t believe this exceptions prove a rule, though. There aren’t many places in the world that have the winds or hydrological reources necessary. Solar is more evenly distributed, particularly in the tropics, but not enough by itself either, at least not in all places or for most people.
Davy on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 2:54 pm
Clog, technology is only one of the vital ingredients and if technology was the only ingredients that mattered then we may have a chance. That is not the case and that is why it is too late. The question should be how much time is left and we should be making the best of that time. We should not be trying to live the impossible and lose whatever chance we have for something. Somethin is better than nothin.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 2:54 pm
I know that technology is a dirty word here, but nevertheless think back to 1995. At the time there was no internet. That is merely 20 years ago! Who would have thought that 20 years later you would be conversing, paying chess, date, etc., with strangers at the other side of the world. All over the world large companies are working on storage technologies, new photovoltaic cells and what not, the results of which are unpredictable other than that new possibilities will be opened up.
Currently I am relatively optimistic about the longterm energy prospects. For the short term I am more worried about the coming geopolitical showdown.
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 3:09 pm
Juan, a very positive factor is that all over the planet large numbers of people are convinced that the old fossil ways are a dead end and that renewables are an essential ingredient of the world of tomorrow.
That is a necessary precondition for energy transition.
Furthermore there is a very large potential for energy saving:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita
If you look at the list and select Italy with “merely” 2757 kwh/capita/year and compare that with energy boozers North-America, Scandinavia, Russia or my own cloggies, than you can see that potential. Life in Italy is pretty good as it is.
shortonoil on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 4:36 pm
“People of average intelligence simply understand these things without explaining.”
Yea, sort of like my dog when he steals a steak off the barbeque.
Above average intelligence!
See if you can get your head wrapped around Dr. Arnoux’s thoughts on the matter. That would prove that you are smarter than my dog!
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.it/2016/07/some-reflections-on-twilight-of-oil-age_88.html
OK, who’s betting on the dog?
Cloggie on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 5:42 pm
Shorty, in 2016 we have a multi-billion dollar solar industry, hundreds of thousands of consultants, government commissions, research institutions, unversities, phd folks, etc., etc.
Are you seriously suggesting that this entire cluster of people, busy for decades trying to set up an alternative branch of energy generation, are simply working for nothing without anybody noticing it?
Look, I understand that everybody wants to be special and stand apart from the crowd, but you are really pushing it.
Your dog is probably already looking forward to the next BBQ, because he will have little trouble to snatch a satisfying chunk of the dish.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 6:11 pm
“simply working for nothing”
Not exactly. All the manufacturers get paid, the shippers get paid, the assemblers get paid, the office workers and software developers and everybody else, they all get paid. The owners/CEOs definitely get paid and get magnificent stock options and other “extras” as well. Everybody gets paid. For now.
Behind it all, supporting it in fact, is a computer hooked up to a network somewhere in the Eccles building, with a full shift of “printing specialists”, furiously pressing CONTROL-ALT-P around the clock, pumping massive amounts of liquidity (aka: debt) into the financial system, which in turn results in malinvestment, overcapacity, reckless gambles, search for yield, lies and deceit to draw in the “investing” suckers, and more.
Take all that and there you have it! A zombie company with extremely over-valued stock living on government handouts and new “investment” dollars, attracted by sophisticated PR programs designed to keep the suckers putting up their hard-earned cash hoping that they’ll eventually make a killing, or at least break even.
And of course all of that wouldn’t be complete without a politician or two pointing at the pig with lipstick, pontificating about how proud he is of the alternative energy future he is helping to build for America.
makati1 on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 6:23 pm
Cloggie: Solar is a paycheck for most, not an obsession, or even an expected way out of our situation. Build-out of even 1/10th of the energy (electric) system we have today, using solar, is NEVER going to happen. Most of the Western world is bankrupt. Much of the rest are struggling. Money and profit make the decisions, not need or want.
If you want to use solar, you need a storage means. That is a lot of batteries. Here is a techie article if you are into that.
http://energyskeptic.com/2016/only-sodium-sulfur-batteries-have-enough-material-on-earth-to-scale-up/
If you have a standalone system on your house, you may be a bit better off than your neighbor, for a while, but not for longer than the converter lasts, or the things you need it for. Better to plan a life without electric. I am.
sunweb on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 6:26 pm
Clogged – never said solar wouldn’t work. You are very good at this politics thing of redefining for your purposes. I gave more than Hall and Prieto. The have no dog in the race. You also didn’t address my main point except with a video that proved my point.
to repeat and say have a warm solar life.
Cloggie has a magic wand to make these devices, their auxiliary equipment, the vehicles to install, the vehicles to maintain, the multitude of equipment associated, the buildings where these are manufactured, the equipment at the mining pits for resources, the chemicals for making and cleaning, and more.
Will energy for all this list be sequestered somewhere? Will there be dedicated devices only for the list?
That is a hell of a magic wand that Tinderbell loaned him.
Reality bites. Look at the videos: http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2015/04/solar-devices-industrial-infrastructure.html They are from the industries themselves.
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 6:54 pm
Ferget about alternatives, I’m an
API retarded Sheeple“energy voter”.NASA Study Nails Fracking as Source of Massive Methane ‘Hot Spot’
The 2,500-square mile plume is said to be the largest concentration of the potent greenhouse gas in the country
“A NASA study released on Monday confirms that a methane “hot spot” in the Four Corners region of the American southwest is directly related to leaks from natural gas extraction, processing, and distribution.
The 2,500-square mile plume, first detected in 2003 and confirmed by NASA satellite data in October 2014, is said to be the largest concentration of atmospheric methane in the U.S. and is more than triple a standard ground-based estimate. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, is a highly-efficient greenhouse gas—84 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, and a significant contributor to global warming.”
http://commondreams.org/news/2016/08/16/nasa-study-nails-fracking-source-massive-methane-hot-spot
Drill Baby Drill = Kill Baby Kill – sorry grandkids (last generation) we left you no energy and a trashed biosphere, but I needed that 6500lb Dodge Ram to drive across town whenever I felt like it to have a hamburger or save $40 on my new bi-yearly flat screen. Real fucking sorry for you.
ghung on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 6:57 pm
Who the heck is “Tinderbell”? Tinkerbell’s gay brother? Just askin’.
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 7:10 pm
Louisiana Floods Overtop Levee, Inundating 15,000 Homes; 98L May Develop
“The highest flood crest ever observed on Louisiana’s Amite River has overtopped the Laurel Ridge Levee in Ascension Parish, about 20 miles southeast of the capital of Baton Rouge, resulting in the flooding of at least 15,000 homes—one third of the parish’s homes, reported the Baton Rouge Advocate on Tuesday morning.”
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/louisiana-floods-overtop-levee-inundating-15000-homes-98l-may-devel
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Aug 2016 7:43 pm
“Tinderbell”, why he’s the new mascot for the 5 alarm AGW jacked wildfire coming to a local near you.
Now here’s a short message about every voter’s friend, The American Petroleum Institute
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMqbKO6BdxM&feature
Cloggie on Wed, 17th Aug 2016 7:11 am
Some encouraging data concerning lie expectancy of solar panels:
http://info.cat.org.uk/questions/pv/life-expectancy-solar-pv-panels
Degradation rate less than 0.4% for newer panels:
http://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/7475/What-Is-the-Lifespan-of-a-Solar-Panel.aspx
Expect 92% after 20 years. There are cases that panels still perform reasonable after 40 years.
Davy on Wed, 17th Aug 2016 7:16 am
Great Clog, too bad the rest of the apparatus that supports alternative energy has such a high degradation rate.
Kenz300 on Wed, 17th Aug 2016 7:26 am
“Energy Collective” — is this part of the Koch propaganda machine……….
Koch Brothers Continue to Fund Climate Change Denial Machine, Spend $21M to Defend Exxon
http://ecowatch.com/2016/06/22/koch-defends-exxon/
Big Coal Funded This Prominent Climate Change Denier, Docs Reveal
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/roy-spencer-peabody-energy_us_57601e12e4b053d43306535e
Cloggie on Wed, 17th Aug 2016 7:27 am
When I was an engineering student, you still had “computer data centers” with punch cards and paper A3-sized printers, with nerds on sandals lining up behind these printers to wait for the Burroughsmainframe spit out the output.
Currently my new iPhone6+ has more computing power than the entire data center of 33 years ago.
Morale: the power of technological progress.
This whole EROEI discussion turns around life time output divided by the energy necessary to produce the stupid panel.
Consider the energy required to build that 33 year old mainframe based computer center and compare it with the energy required to build the iphone. A massive reduction.
The active material of a solar panel is merely a few microns thick. You can damp the layers of a solar cells like a microscopic rain.
When I produced solar cells in my universities lab, we used a gold bar and bombarded it with 30kV electrons (“sputtering”). You could see a fine rain of gold particles descending on the 1 cm2 piece of silicon. When that process was done, you opened the high vacuum cylinder and took the silicon, enriched with a gold layer to a little box with a light modelling the sun and then the exiting moment moment arrived to see if we had hit the jackpot. And we had! Except that after two days the shining solar cell’s spectacular performance had degraded to less than Nobel prize levels.lol
Anyway. The morale is that no further spectacular gains are to be expected on the yield front. But enormous gains are still to be expected at the manufacturing front, making this whole EROEI discussion null and void.
Kenz300 on Wed, 17th Aug 2016 7:32 am
The fossil fuel industry and their spokesmen need to wake up and see that the world is in transition to safer, cleaner and cheaper forms of energy…………
Denying that the world is changing will only put them farther behind the curve and more stranded assets……it is time to develop a new business model that embraces the future of clean energy……………
Clean energy production with wind and solar……
Clean energy consumption with electric vehicles…..
Scotland blows away the competition – 106% of electricity needs from wind – joins select club
https://electrek.co/2016/08/14/scotland-electricity-needs-from-wind/
The Netherlands’ ban on gas-powered cars ‘likely to become law’, all new cars electric by 2025
https://electrek.co/2016/08/14/netherlands-ban-gas-powered-cars-likely-law-all-new-cars-electric-2025/
Davy on Wed, 17th Aug 2016 7:38 am
Morale: the power of technological progress will be ended by limits and diminishing returns. Efficiency beyond a point is destructive and dangerously destabilizing. Progress for progress sake is a cancer and cancer kills.