1) The showdown on oil prices between Saudi Arabia and the US will intensify, and the Saudis will eventually break.

It looks like oil and gas prices are going to remain low for the foreseeable future, panicking both the oil industry in Saudi Arabia and the shale gas industry in the US.

The big question is whether Saudi Arabia can keep production high and prices low long enough to bankrupt enough of the American shale industry. The answer may come by the end of 2016 and several factors point to the Saudis breaking first.

For one, despite losses for the oil industry, low oil prices benefit many sectors in the US, especially as consumers now have more spending money in their pockets. However for Saudi Arabia, an oil-dependent economy, low prices are a clear loser.

There’s also the geopolitical dimension that will make worse Saudi Arabia’s financial problems. Saudi Arabia spends more on military spending as a percentage of GDP (11%) than any other country, is currently increasing this spending at a faster rate (21%) than any other country, and has a showdown with Iran on the horizon. To most observers, the public finances in Saudi Arabia are headed for disaster if nothing changes.

Despite low fossil fuel prices (including coal), wind and solar will set new records in 2016 for installations and generation on every continent. This is a pretty safe bet. For many markets, including the important US market, the year-to-year change in 2016 may set records too.

Why is this? To some degree renewables and fossil fuels (especially oil) are not actually in competition. Oil is more important for transport whereas renewables are being integrated for electricity, so are in different markets. The costs of renewables are also rapidly declining, and there’s no reason to think the costs could ever go back up.

In politics, the American Presidential election promises to be interesting on this front, but don’t underestimate the significance of Paris. In the days following the agreement renewable energy stocks shot up and coal stocks continued to decline.

This transition may have happened for the first time in 2015, the data is still coming in, but it will almost certainly be the case in 2016. One striking example is China’s ambitions for offshore wind – the graph below shows the dramatic increase in projected installations given the government’s announced policies.

More so than renewables, low-carbon vehicles are an area where you might expect low oil prices to present a difficulty as they will encourage more people to stick with their regular car.

Sales of hybrid vehicles, which many people do compare to standard combustion vehicles in purchasing decisions, will likely fall. Conversely, electric vehicle purchases tend to be made by consumers who are less sensitive to price changes, evidenced by increased EV sales in 2015 despite low oil prices. In addition, a significant portion of EV sales are in industrial, commercial and public sectors where EV mandates play a strong role.

This prediction, like most others included here, differs significantly from OPEC’s delusional World Oil Outlook. On EVs it forecasts only a moderate increase in sales all the way out to 2040. OPEC dismisses EVs as a threat because it says it will take until 2040 for battery costs to fall by 30-50%, enough to make them viable options. It’s a particularly bold prediction as battery costs have fallen by about 50% in last five years alone.

Expect to see media interest in head-to-head races between the silent rockets and a lot of interest in three big 2016 releases: the Chevy Volt, the Nissan LEAF and the Tesla Model X.

There was plenty of reporting in 2015 on how for the first time greenhouse gas emissions stalled while the global economy grew (3%). As we wrote when the news was announced, this was likely a standout year – at least until we rapidly shift how our economy runs.

Importantly, it is the amount of total emissions in the atmosphere (the stock) rather than the increase or decrease in annual emissions (the flow) that is causing climate change, so any celebration is premature. Still, expect both the total emissions in the atmosphere and our annual emissions to increase in 2016.

2015 was, by a large margin, the hottest year in modern records. But the UK Met Office forecasts 2016 to be even hotter. Climate change sceptics, who for the past few years have kicked up a lot fuss around a “global warming pause” by drawing a straight line from 1998 to 2012, will move on to a new talking point.

It may even be the case that sceptics begin to accept climate change, but downplay the likely environmental, social and economic damages – probably after flooding has left the front pages.

38 Comments on "6 predictions for 2016"

Apneaman on Wed, 13th Jan 2016 7:10 pm 



“The New Economics Foundation (NEF) is a British think-tank that promotes social, economic and environmental justice.[1]

NEF was founded in 1986 by the leaders of The Other Economic Summit (TOES) with the aim of working for a “new model of wealth creation, based on equality, diversity and economic stability”.[2]

The foundation has 50 staff in London and is active at a range of different levels. Its programmes include work on well-being, its own kinds of measurement and evaluation, sustainable local regeneration, its own forms of finance and business models, sustainable public services, and the economics of climate change.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Economics_Foundation

Hopey well paid liberals.

makati1 on Wed, 13th Jan 2016 8:12 pm 



1. Bullshit!
2. Insignificant increase.
3. True, but still minuscule* amounts..
4. Bullshit!
5. Definitely!
6. Definitely!

There is my response to this guessing game.

*Minuscule – definition of minuscule by The Free Dictionary

min·us·cule also min·is·cule (mĭn′ĭ-skyo͞ol′). adj. 1. Very small; tiny.

ennui2 on Wed, 13th Jan 2016 8:35 pm 



^^ Doomer denial.

sidzepp on Wed, 13th Jan 2016 8:49 pm 



I see a war in the immediate future, except it won’t rear its ugly head until the new president is crowned. Trump is not predictable at this time, Hillary is business as usual, Bernie will move towards isolationism. More than likely big oil will find reasons to involve us in a foreign conflict as their profits continue to dwindle.

eugene on Wed, 13th Jan 2016 9:31 pm 



Nice fantasy article that ignores massive issues such as finance, lack of infrastructure and personal income stagnation. Shifting the US, let alone the global economy,y to totally new energy sources is not a quickly done thing and the one thing we do not have is time or money. My read is the alternative fuel advocates are a fear driven response to their own anxiety. And, most of all, tax payer dollars to subsidize it all.

I spent many yrs working with people who walked through my door with quick change solutions to complex problems. A primary function was to assist them in accepting the real problem, the necessary changes required and helping them with the resulting emotions such as depression, anxiety, anger, etc.

We are in a very complicated corner facing abrupt climate change, a nation on the brink of bankruptcy and a continual state of war and, if the economy should even approach growth, a very quick return to serious increases in energy costs.

But if you believe electric cars and renewables are going to “solve” it all, so be it.

Mark Ziegler on Wed, 13th Jan 2016 10:28 pm 



Iran will take over where the Saudis let up.

Revi on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 9:28 am 



We are at the beginning of 2016, so there are still 11 and a half months to see which of these predictions come true. I’m betting that it will surprise all of us.

I think the US economy will the the next one to experience problems.

It would be nice if renewables set new records.

I agree about the temps setting records.

I hope the world continues to provide me and mine with food, shelter and clothing.

We’ll see…

IanC on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 12:54 pm 



My predictions for 2016:

1. Barn completed and all construction finished!

2. Add 2 new dairy goats and start making cheese

3. 350 new natives added to hedgerows for pollinators.

4. Significant progress toward organic certification.

5. Being Anonymous Food Pantry at the local school for kids basically raising themselves at home.

6. Master new Quebecois and old time tunes.

Probably some other stuff will happen in the world, but I believe in making a difference where I am.

Peace, everyone!

Davy on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 12:59 pm 



Now you are talkin Ian, good luck!

makati1 on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 6:24 pm 



Just read an article that commented on the upcoming US election. He stated that there may not be one as a “national emergency” may come up and ‘O’ will remain in office to deal with it. Now that would be a first wouldn’t it? Or would it? A lot of third world dictators have done the same. False flag? Interesting thought…

BC on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 8:32 pm 



IanC, you made my year, and simultaneously, exhausted my capacity for optimistic hopium! Congratulations! I now have a renewed objective for 2016. 😀

Kenz300 on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 10:37 am 



A clean energy future awaits us all……………

Top 10 Clean Energy Events and Actions in 2015: A Retrospect

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/01/top-10-clean-energy-events-and-actions-in-2015-a-retrospect.html
6 Charts that Will Make You Optimistic About America’s Clean Energy Future
http://energy.gov/articles/6-charts-will-make-you-optimistic-about-america-s-clean-energy-future
Renewables to Overtake Coal as World’s Largest Power Source, Says IEA
https://ecowatch.com/2015/11/10/renewables-to-overtake-coal/

6 Charts that Will Make You Optimistic About America’s Clean Energy Future

http://energy.gov/articles/6-charts-will-make-you-optimistic-about-america-s-clean-energy-future

Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 2:33 pm 



“Who will win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?”

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1233/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination

Bookies are picking Trump

onlooker on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 5:34 pm 



thought I would put this here as it seems to be a trend that should continue to worsen as the zombies become more entranced perhaps out of fear of seeing the reality. http://crisisforums.org/discussion/41643/the-zombie-masses-of-america-reach-new-record-for-emergency-room-visits-due-to-walking-into-traffic.
Sometimes reality makes itself known!

onlooker on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 5:35 pm 



I am going out on the limb and predicting a new deadly disease outbreak for 2016 starting in China.
http://crisisforums.org/discussion/40947/the-unstoppable-epidemic-could-start-in-china-china-uncensored

bug on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 5:44 pm 



Mak, the dems in 2008 said the same thing about bush43. He was going to do something and be Pres again, same shit every 8 years, same rumors. We all know TPTB will boot O to the curb and a new
Pres will be emplanted, that is how it works.

onlooker on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 5:47 pm 



I am starting to think maybe I will be wrong, the over antibioticed Americans may be in the bulls eye of a nasty epidemic. https://news.yahoo.com/bird-flu-indiana-turkey-farm-not-same-2015-173046121.html

makati1 on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 6:19 pm 



bug, but there is no viable candidate this time. Trump? Not acceptable to TPTB, but likely to win if there are ‘elections’. Bilary? May be in jail by November if there is any law left in America. Who else is ‘acceptable? The village idiot’s brother Jeb? LMAO.

It is going to happen soon, so now may be the best opportunity as the proverbial shit is getting very close to the fan. What better ‘excuse’ to finally end the democracy’ charade? I guess we will just have to wait and see. Should be exciting!

BC on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 6:34 pm 



mak, it really doesn’t matter who is installed as the CEO of the militarist-imperialist, Anglo-American, rentier-socialist corporate-state. S/he/shim/it is a cutout and will pretend to execute the duties of the office while the lobbyists, political donors, political hatchet men and women, deep state principals, and Power Elite top 0.001% run the corporate-state, including never-ending imperial wars for gun and profit.

Cynical? Nah, just imperial realpolitik.

Same as it ever was . . .

And so it goes . . .

🙂

makati1 on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 6:34 pm 



Onlooker, there is already a new avian flu, as can be seen in these current news articles:

Indiana, USA

http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-bird-flu-case-reported-in-indiana-1452879103?mod=rss_US_News

France

http://news.yahoo.com/poultry-farming-frozen-bird-flu-cleanup-french-sw-205521625.html;_ylt=AwrXgiIpjZlWl10AyOnQtDMD;_ylu=X3oDMTByM3V1YTVuBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMzBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg–

UK

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/634150/sheila-voas-bird-flu-fife-dunfermline-craigies-poultry-farm-scotland-h5n1-h5n6?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+daily-express-news-showbiz+%28Daily+Express+%3A%3A+News+%2F+Showbiz+Feed%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results

China

http://time.com/4172385/h5n6-avian-flu-china-guangdong/

There appears to be a lot of places the next mutation could originate. Or maybe the Black Plague could return. It is still in existence around the world and even in Arizona rodents. Or a variation of the Spanish Flu. Or some mosquito born disease, as the summers warm. We are skirting around a plague all of the time, and our meds are becoming ineffective.

makati1 on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 6:37 pm 



BC, you are correct. All it takes is an ability to read the teleprompter with some feeling and lie without smiling.

bug on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 6:57 pm 



Mak, there has not been a viable candidate since Washington,George . TPTB will pick someone.

Boat on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 12:16 am 



Democratic women ages 18-34 support burning Bernie. As the Dem’s go further left the right goes to Trump. lol Should be a fun year.

onlooker on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 1:01 am 



Mak and others my opinion is that what would probably be the two main catalysts for a mass human die-off would be either the emergence of a particularly powerful zoonotic disease or a sudden abrupt temp increase due to massive methane emissions which would decimate agricultural production. What does others think?

GregT on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 2:29 am 



“What does others think?”

BAU onlooker. There are far too many consequences to list here.

theedrich on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 2:33 am 



Probably Liebig’s “Law of the Minimum” (another phrase for the weakest link in a chain) will begin to be reached around December 2016.  That will be when the overload of 30-50 million ThirdWorlders imported by the Demonics and their Repub piggybackers will start to collapse the healthcare system, to be followed by a general dropoff in civilization.  Whites (especially the males) will be blamed, as usual.  Nonetheless, the rich filthies will do their best to suck resources from other programs (social security?  the border guards?  the prison system?) to keep the invading warthogs happy, so the affluent types can keep their brownie landscapers and housemaids.

Then, as unemployment rises among lesser-skilled Whites (and even more so among slave-descended American Blacks), the Thing, departing from the White House to his island mansion, will give another oration on how wonderful he has been, and fly off from the junkpile he has turned the country into.  The masses will drown themselves in more narcotics from diversity-bringing Spicland, Asia and other sewers, and we can enjoy becoming a colorful, Brazilian-type favela.  Academe will go into raptures over it, the media will be ecstatic, and the politicoes will promise ever more unicorns.

The posters here who hate Whites (i.e., the overwhelming number of them, especially the non-Americans and parasites from abroad) will of course find other excuses (especially White “racism”) for the increasing death rates by suicide, narcotics and gangbanging.  The politically ultra-correct, affluent, upper classes will build bigger fences around their gated communities, while proclaiming the uselessness of walls to keep out the invaders.  They will also make sure the police forces and paramilitary (FBI, etc.) are well armed so as to suppress any serious White objections to their dictatorship.  The U.S. Constitution will be preserved in a museum for antiquarians.  And Big race-mixing Brother will reign supreme.

JuanP on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 6:24 am 



Boat, If you think the coming US elections are funny in any way, you must have a really twisted sense of humor. I don’t believe in democracy, I never did, but I think the candidates are really scary, particularly Hillary, the psychopathic, narcissist bitch, and our next president.

Any political system that allows the majority of people to make the decisions on who rules is flawed by definition since the majority lacks the necessary intelligence, knowledge, mental health, and common sense to make the right decisions.

The fact that most people believe in democracy as a political system is a very clear sign of how primitive, ignorant, and stupid our species is. You have to be thoroughly brainwashed to believe in shit like that. You are a perfect example of this.

JuanP on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 6:30 am 



Theedouche, I guess you are not responsible for anything that is wrong in the world and neither are your trailer park trash white supremacist friends, racist prick. It is all the darkies fault. The darkies are coming! The Muslims are coming! You are a pathetic, deranged, racist lunatic and a joke. Maybe your schoolyard buddy, Davy, the delusional exceptionalist, will be here to give you some support later.

Kenz300 on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 9:33 am 



What do RepubliCONS believe…….. depends who is paying….. follow the money……. fossil fuels….. NRA………the top 1%

Boat on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 12:29 pm 



Kenz,
Actually when it comes to energy Georgia and N Carolina lead when it comes to commercial scale solar. Then there is Texas who is a leader when it comes to wind. As time goes by I think we will see the lines blurred even more when it comes to politics. Like I have always said, renewables will take off when the economics will make an investor money. The massive shift will happen sooner rather than later. We are reaching that tipping point.

onlooker on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 1:38 pm 



Before we let 2016 fully go by lets remember some stories that were important but not covered much by MSM
http://theantimedia.org/15-news-stories-from-2015-you-should-have-heard-about-but-probably-didnt/
Not surprising all the stores directly or indirectly point to govt. or corporate abuse

BC on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 4:02 pm 



JuanP, don’t fear the circus clowns known as candidates for CEO of the Anglo-American, militarist-imperialist corporate-state. They have only the power that is conferred on them by the rentier-socialist Power Elite top 0.001% and their ownership of a controlling interest in virtually everything of economic value, as well as by extension the mass media, legislature, courts, academe, etc.

The US has been a conservative (small “c”) system since its founding. After the 1870s-80s, the country has been under the influence of commercial and maritime imperial law, not constitutional law per se.

After 1913, the rule by commercial law became further ensconced via the Fed and private banks’ monopoly creation of private debt-money and the increasing financial ownership and control of the Fortune 10-25.

Since 1973, the monopoly to create private debt-money was removed from the gold reserve and US$ floated, permitting the complete takeover by Wall St., the TBTE banks, and the top 0.001% owners of virtually everything of economic value directly and indirectly via principal claims on profits, labor product, and gov’t receipts in perpetuity.

So, don’t fear the candidates but pull back the curtain behind them to see who is really behind the circus act that we are mercilessly subjected to every four years in the US.

onlooker on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 4:36 pm 



About as best as can be said by BC about the true masters of the planet and how like magicians they try and distract the masses from who is really doing what and for what purpose.

GregT on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 6:47 pm 



Smart guy, that BC is.

Sorry onlooker, the force seems to be with me more lately. 🙂

onlooker on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 7:05 pm 



Yeah the good force will always triumph over the evil force.

Boat on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 7:51 pm 



GregT,

Yea ya’ll are impressed with each others rhetoric. BC the smart guy predicted the crash would be over by now with mayhem in the streets. I can go out on the streets of Houston and see BAU. Try to think for yourself instead of feeding false information to the doomer cult. Mr truth, lol

Apneaman on Sat, 16th Jan 2016 8:17 pm 



Boat, it’s a process and it’s speeding up. BAU, yeah the last remnants of a shrunken withered version of it. Like laryngectomized smoker taking drags through his throat hole. The cancer staggers along and pretends normal until day terminal.

I see the local Houston BAU real estate is doing as well as your portfolio.

Houston’s Real Estate Market Feeling The Effects Of Oil’s Price Drop

DON’T BE FOOLED BY CLAIMS OF ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION—THE CITY STILL RUNS ON OIL.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/the-daily-post/oils-price-drop-is-spreading-to-houstons-real-estate-market/

How Low Can You Go? How Low Can You Go? How Low Can You Go?

Kenz300 on Mon, 18th Jan 2016 10:14 am 



3 Reasons Big Coal Had a Bad Week

http://ecowatch.com/2016/01/16/big-coal-had-a-bad-week/

Half of U.S. Fracking Industry Could Go Bankrupt as Oil Prices Continue to Fall

http://ecowatch.com/2016/01/18/fracking-industry-bankrupt/?utm_source=EcoWatch+List&utm_campaign=bddf330f10-Top_News_1_18_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-bddf330f10-86023917