Peak Oil is You
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Page added on April 12, 2020
The Reality Of The End Of Oil
The Oil Age has powered the world for well over a century. There have been two general schools of thought about how it will ultimately end.
There were those who believed that oil production would peak and begin to decline in the face of high global demand. This is essentially the peak oil argument, which many laymen mistakenly understand as “The world is running out of oil.”
In reality, the argument wasn’t that the world was going to run out of oil, it was that oil production would begin a long decline and cause havoc in a world that is still highly dependent upon oil.
This version of the end of oil became very popular just before the shale oil boom. The idea was neatly summarized in 2005 when the late Matt Simmons published Twilight in the Desert, in which he argued that oil production in Saudi Arabia was nearing terminal decline.
In this version, there is no easy replacement for oil, so oil prices skyrocket above $100 a barrel (bbl) as people seek to maintain mobility. In fact, for a while it looked like this version might play out.
But growing shale oil production largely burst that bubble in 2014, when it became clear that there was still a lot of oil to be produced.
Fast forward a few years, and a new version of the end of oil began to take hold. In this version, exponential increases in electric vehicles (EVs) and ride-sharing are predicted to be two key factors that will make oil obsolete.
In this version, oil prices plunge as demand starts to fall. This is the exact opposite of the peak oil argument, where oil prices surge as supply starts to fall.
As Michael Liebreich, the founder and senior contributor of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, recently put it on Twitter: “I’ve always said the end-game for oil is not when it reaches $200/barrel, it’s when it settles at $20/barrel.”
I felt like it would be likely that we would see some combination: A period of shortages and high prices, but ultimately a peak in demand that would lead to lower prices. I wrote an article nearly three years ago outlining that view. However, I felt like that point was probably a decade away. And it would be highly dependent on whether U.S. shale oil production continued to grow.
One thing the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has done is to collapse oil demand, and subsequently prices. The world still needs oil during this crisis, but what we are seeing today is exactly what I think we would see in the peak demand scenario.
In that case, we will see the need for a much smaller oil industry. And that is likely where we are headed now, with oil prices in the $20s, and the timing of a recovery still uncertain.
I believe what we saw in the 2005-2014 time frame was a preview of the peak oil scenario. Oil company revenues were skyrocketing during this period, and energy stocks were one of the best-performing sectors.
But today, we are seeing a preview of the peak demand scenario. That outcome is very different. In this scenario, only the strongest oil companies survive, and the sector becomes one most investors would rather avoid.
Are we there yet? I don’t think so, but it is hard to say what the lingering impact on oil demand will be from the coronavirus pandemic. When oil demand dropped during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, it bounced back strongly in 2010. I am not so sure that’s going to happen this time. This pandemic seems destined to change our world in a number of ways, and some of those ways involve lower oil demand.
If that transition starts to happen in earnest, then the peak demand scenario that I thought we would see in maybe 2030 will be here a lot sooner than that.
137 Comments on "The Reality Of The End Of Oil"
whoa supertards galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 12:11 pm
everyone pls respect sueprtard
since whitey supertard scientific supremacist “thunderf00t” is selq qurantineing i’d do myelf some good locking myself up too.
i advise u do it or uded
imma chop off my peen later cuz that’s how beervirus gonna get to it. i don’t score anyway so it doesn’t matter
u do it for me, for (((supremetard)), for urself, but above all u do it for the love of supremacist muzzies
why muzzie bosotn bombing mocking FBI? no amputation for this muzzies? why?
amputate all mzuzies startig iwth muzzies imams
rockman on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 12:55 pm
DT – I’m still around. I just avoid getting sucked into silly debates especially when they have nothing to do with a particular thread. Obviously with oil being a finite resource it will continue to deplete. Slower or faster depending on alt development or demand destruction (which will vary over time subject to economic problems).
From my perspective (after almost half a century in the oil patch) there really isn’t much more to say. And certainly no reason to join endless debates with either very biased and/or uneducated folks.
whoa supertards galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 12:59 pm
whoa supertrd rock is back you guyes
i so sorry i drove supertard rock away, i hope he’s not mad at me
i’m glad he’s back
shoult out to little small big brother joe supertard
watch this video and realize how much damage u do when u love mzzies
u burden whitey supertards with complexity and leaving them no time to amputate our muzzies starting wth muzzie imams
youtube.com/watch?v=nORRgU8sGdE
whoa supertard galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 1:32 pm
this sounds like our resident supertard makako
Christian Economist: China Will Triumph Over America Due to Coronavirus Pandemic, So Learn Chinese
ht supertrad big muzzie beard
Abraham van Helsing on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 2:05 pm
“‘There are more tough times to come’: Chancellor Rishi Sunak admits government cannot protect every business and household from coronavirus crisis amid warnings UK economy could shrink by a THIRD and TWO MILLION could lose jobs”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8218341/Chancellor-Rishi-Sunak-warns-tough-times-come-amid-looming-recession.html
If the lock-down remains in place for 3 months, the UK economy will nose dive with 35%, says “Office for Budget Responsibility”.
Such a lock-down would be outright criminal.
Every time death toll figures are mentioned, they should be accompanied with the median age of these victims.
Again:
life-expectancy Netherlands: 82
median age corona victims NL: 81
Give me a break.
Every year in the Netherlands 150,800 people die. There will be no lock-down if these 150k people die from cancer, flu, diabetics, broken hip, etc.
But if all of a sudden 2800 people die from Corona, the entire society must be frozen, because the pictures from the ICUs are so worrisome.
Excessive humanism.
The same instinct with which every year tens of thousands of hostile, fighting age young men, sold as refugees, are brought in.
Cloggie on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 3:12 pm
There is still a lot of downward price potential for electricity storage, think 66$/kWh
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/13/how-low-can-energy-storage-go-lots-lots-lower/
“How Low Can Energy Storage Go? Lots & Lots Lower!”
Interesting are:
Flow batteries: no degradation over time, which implies that the cost of storage reduces asymptotically towards zero over time.
The lake-sized flow battery, proposed in the Netherlands is able to function as a battery for an entire province for 5 days:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/04/02/energy-island-in-zeeland/
Here a recent lecture in English (with thick Spanish accent) about the state of the art of lake-size flow batteries in water:
https://aquabattery.nl/blue-battery-sustainable-energy-storage-for-smart-communities/
(scroll to the bottom for video)
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 4:08 pm
HELLO ROCKMAN !!!
Didn’t see you post here in a long time.
I also am 90% gone from here.
Bad news this website got taken over by
some psycho in his mamma’s basement.
Every last page gets wrecked by that turkey
posting sewer pipe insults with no redeeming
qualities.
For reasons we can’t understand, this
website isn’t controlled by any moderator.
So when the sewer rats climbed out
of the pipes, there is no stopping them.
Mr Rockman i miss the good old days
when sharp people posted some interesting
ideas and everybody was under control.
Read your posts and learned a lot.
wish U the best!
whoa supertards galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 4:49 pm
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 4:08 pm
HELLO ROCKMAN !!!
Didn’t see you post here in a long time.
tweety bird
i taut i saw a muzzie lover
muzze stabbed 3 women in tennessee
still no amputation of all mzuzies starting with mumzzie imams
whoa supertards galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 5:29 pm
rockman on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 12:55 pm
DT – I’m still around. I just avoid getting sucked into silly debates especially when th
supertard GSR
supertard rock didn’t say anything about lovin muzzie so why you hatin’ bro?
he said he didn’t want a debate? I’m not debating him, never did. i only debate muzzie lovin
i apologize if i drove him away and paid jizya. he came back so he was happy with my restituion
so u want uppertard to close shop? no chance , uppertard decided it to be open
he has a diff opinion with supertard david middleton and i gree with supertard david middleton that’s all i ever said
Greece: muzzies migrants cough on police, chop down 5,000 olive trees
ht supertard big muzzie beard
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 5:44 pm
Retarded English won’t sound funny when you are on the street, living with the rats, roaches and druggies. If you think things are going to be fine when they finally lift your lock-down, you need a rethink, I think. LOL
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 5:51 pm
BTW: Isn’t it interesting that a thing you need an electron microscope to see, is causing death and destruction on a WW3 level? It is destroying economies all over the world, not to mention a few extra deaths.
If you ever doubted that there was a plan for a One World Government, maybe you need a rethink? Even I never expected The Great Leveling to be world wide. A well designed, and released, microscopic army is providing the cover for the take-down. I still expect the East to come out on top. No chance for the West.
whoa supertards galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 5:53 pm
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 5:44 pm
Retarded English won’t sound funny when you are on the street, living with the rats, roaches and dru
well supertard, you know as human we have addiction, if it’s not something then another.
darkie supertard jungle king shot druggies
then shot cig smokers
and now he’s shooting quarantine breakers
have a watch of my video supertard.
if i’m a policy maker and after watching the video i can’t conclude that china needs the usa a lot more than the usa needs china then i’m clearly brain dead like you are
Duncan Idaho on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 6:00 pm
“And with this president, confronting him with reality also means confronting him with the fact that he has no idea what he’s talking about.
That’s what Reid and Collins did so well on Monday.”
https://www.salon.com/2020/04/14/paula-reid-and-kaitlan-collins-pop-the-toddler-kings-balloon–and-he-melts-down/
whoa supertards galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 6:01 pm
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 5:51 pm
BTW: Isn’t it interesting that a thing you need an electron microscope to see, is causing death and destruction on a WW3 level? It is destroying economies all over the world, not to mention a few extra deaths.
well supertard, you heard the saying never attribute malice to stupidity?
i said this a while ago
the innernet has been building “communities” for a couple of decades now and it enforces compliance and togetherness.
I’m on these communities and i watch them working together for the wrong reasons. aparently the politicians are on those communities too so it’s a mass suicide cult basically.
and it’s easy for politicians to lock down and avoid blame then to stand on principle and really understand the situation
whoever those invisible hands you need to name them. i’m a tard and former paultard so i’m in the know with alex jones and he never named them. you not naming them is just old news, you’re not cutting edge at all supertard makako
not really
SocialRevolutionComing on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 6:02 pm
City of Vancouver is going to be bankruptcy if this COVID continues. This COVID hoax is backfiring big time.
https://vancouversun.com/news/covid-19-city-of-vancouver-at-risk-of-bankruptcy-says-mayor/
Increase of commercial break ins, in Vancouver. This is just the beginning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIooytIgi3I
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 6:26 pm
“Retarded English won’t sound funny when you are on the street, living with the rats, roaches and druggies.”
Some never get the message.
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 6:34 pm
“The western world has gone into a phase of unprecedented lockdown….Quite why such a lockdown is necessary is unclear….There are serious questions being asked as to the real origins of the current pandemic….A second factor is that a virus can be imported into a country, either by accident or deliberately, by those acting for or on behalf of another nation. This is not idle speculation in the present case. There is now very good evidence that the virus was imported into the city of Wuhan at a time contemporaneous with the holding in that city of the quadrennial Military Games….the hotel where the United States military participants stayed was itself a hotbed of infection, recording more than 40 cases of employees and guests infected by the virus. This is a remarkable coincidence that challenges the laws of probability theory.”
“Television pictures showing mass graves being created in public parks will do little to assuage growing public concern that allegedly “the richest country in the world” cannot even properly treat or bury their own disadvantaged citizens.”
https://journal-neo.org/2020/04/14/reactions-to-the-corona-virus-hint-of-a-wider-agenda/
“The consequences of this pandemic are likely to be vastly greater than originally thought. The average citizen would do well to strap themselves in for what is going to be a very bumpy ride.”
Nuff said.
whoa supertards galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 6:59 pm
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 6:34 pm
“The western world has gone into a phase of unprecedented lockdown….Quite why such a lockdown is necessary is unclear….There are serious questions being asked as to the real origins of the current pandemic….A second factor is that a virus can be imported into a country, either by accident or deliberately, by those acting for or on behalf of another nation. This is not idle speculation in the present case. There is no
supertard
darkie supertard jungle king duterte said to shoot people who break quarantine
did whitey supertard president trump say so? No, neither did the local governments.
they know they don’t fare well with americans having guns and yeah i’m proud of americans being bitter clingers.
ain’t nothing rong with being bitter clingers
so i think it comes down to your lockdown because you have no choice
american lockdown because they can afford it.
unfortunately you don’t watch the “MSM” but if you bother there’s a lot of opposition and free speech
Laura Ingraham for example has been poking fun at the lockdown and has her own medical advising team too.
You repeately said you don’t want to talk to people because they’re stupid
but I finally found a reason not to talk to you.
Abraham van Helsing on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 7:15 pm
Oops, I still AM, posting here apparently. Even though I am a fraud and nobody wants me here either.
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 7:33 pm
“I finally found a reason not to talk to you.”
GOOD! Now if I could just get rid of the Missouri Jackass.
Duncan Idaho on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 7:47 pm
“[V]irtually all key aspects of any civilized society go contrary to the absolutism of individual rights. Every civilized society has some sort of legal system, some basic rules that everyone is expected to follow. Most civilized societies have a public education and (except for the United States) a public health insurance system designed to benefit the whole population. These elements of civilization include constraints on individual freedom.
The benefits to each individual of living in a civilized society make these constraints acceptable to just about everybody. The health of the individual depends on the health of the community, which is why everyone in most Western countries accepts a single payer health insurance system. The only exception is the United States, where the egocentricities of Ayn Rand are widely read as serious thought.”
Davy on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 7:51 pm
“I finally found a reason not to talk to you.”
GOOD! Now if I could just get rid of the Missouri Jackass.”
makato-one, you just show how weak and stupid you are when you talk like that. Man up and try to be intelligent. Whining about me moderating your junk just makes you look more stupid.
I will moderate your shit in the morning with some coffee and a good night sleep.
fuck off. LOL
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 8:00 pm
Tell your bed partner nanny goat, I pitty her. LOL
whoa supremacist muzzies lovin supertards on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 8:41 pm
makati1 on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 8:00 pm
Tell your bed partner nanny goat, I pitty her. LOL
supertard
please be respectful of supertard
note that i’m not talking to you. i only tell you to respect super goat
whoa supertard galore on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 9:21 pm
‘If I was knocked down, I’d die’: Former CBS News reporter Lara Logan reveals horrific details of her Cairo gang rape including how she was violated with ‘hands, flagpoles and sticks’
lara logan is a muzzie lover. she was sexually assauted by muzies but she said nothing about muzzies
so all men are to be blamed for muzzie rape
because it’s commanded in muzzietexts that kufar women are fair game
Davy on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 10:28 pm
Sorry all, I just show how weak and stupid I am when you talk they way I do. I’d man up and try to be intelligent but my whining about my stupid moderating just makes me look even more stupid.
I pretend to moderate in the morning with some coors lite and a good night with the goats.
fuck off. LOL
Antius on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 11:10 pm
‘The lake-sized flow battery, proposed in the Netherlands is able to function as a battery for an entire province for 5 days’
That would be quite a wasteful way of storing energy. A vanadium redox battery of that size would have huge embodied energy and large materials requirements and most of its capacity would only be rarely used.
A better idea would be the use of redox batteries for short-term frequency control for the grid with a few hours at most storage capacity. This would provide enough time to bring online gas turbine power plants, that would fill any long duration lulls. Some of their fuel could be provided by biogas and hydrogen, for short term lulls, with LNG providing fuel during those more occasional long term lulls in power.
The use of grid connected storage heaters would also make the job easier, because heat is very cheap to store in an insulated tank. Also, steam plants can store heat in thermal mass, with coal or biomass providing the additional energy input needed to raise high quality steam.
Antius on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 11:21 pm
“[V]irtually all key aspects of any civilized society go contrary to the absolutism of individual rights.”
A very Marxist view of things. The idea that all civilisation is the result of top down imperialistic control that basically forces people to behave the way you think they should behave. That sort of society is usually a nightmare to live in, with mass surveillance and government owned goons providing ‘security’ and enforcing their own specific values that are basically handed down to them by powerful, monied interest groups.
Antius on Tue, 14th Apr 2020 11:33 pm
‘Every year in the Netherlands 150,800 people die. There will be no lock-down if these 150k people die from cancer, flu, diabetics, broken hip, etc.
But if all of a sudden 2800 people die from Corona, the entire society must be frozen, because the pictures from the ICUs are so worrisome.’
Agree completely. It is easy to convince people that they are in mortal danger and then to use their fear as a pretext for confiscating their freedom.
In the UK, with a population now expanded to 70m by mass immigration, roughly 1million people die each year. Coronavirus has so far killed 10,000 and all of a sudden, we need government goons to herd us into our houses, tell when we can go out and who we can interact with.
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 15th Apr 2020 3:50 am
More end-of-oil news:
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/14/us-scientists-create-new-solar-cell-that-blows-past-theoretical-limit-but-why/
“US Scientists Create New Solar Cell That Blows Past Theoretical Limit, But Why?”
A scientist named Ryan France, who happens to be from the US, and his colleagues have created a multi-layered solar cell and broke the world efficiency record, while they were at it:
49.1%
The price tag however, would even make a NASA engineer frown. The catch: that efficiency is only achieved with concentrated solar.
If you skip that and be content with a single sun, you achieve 39%, still breath-taking.
There is still a possible road to more down-to-earth applications, namely by projecting concentrated solar in the range of 1:100 or even 1:1000 onto that 49.1% device.
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 15th Apr 2020 3:59 am
New York State opts for post-corona
renewable energy transition:
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/05/and-so-it-begins-worlds-11th-biggest-economy-pitches-renewable-energy-for-covid-19-recovery/
“And So It Begins: World’s 11th-Biggest Economy Pitches Renewable Energy For COVID-19 Recovery”
Similar sounds from Europe.
JuanP on Wed, 15th Apr 2020 6:32 am
The pink poodle comes out when I ID theft:
Sorry all, I just show how weak and stupid I am when you talk they way I do. I’d man up and try to be intelligent but my whining about my stupid moderating just makes me look even more stupid.
I pretend to moderate in the morning with some coors lite and a good night with the goats.
fuck off. LOL
Davy on Wed, 15th Apr 2020 7:00 am
‘Every year in the Netherlands 150,800 people die. There will be no lock-down if these 150k people die from cancer, flu, diabetics, broken hip, etc.”
I don’t buy that crap. More excuses to down play a dangerous pathogen. This virus is novel so we were not sure what it could do in the beginning. It is infectious with a dangerous asymptomatic period. It can overwhelm the health care system locally and create nasty situations. That said destroying an economy that feeds us is a bad policy too. There will need to be a balance with acceptable casualties.
Davy on Wed, 15th Apr 2020 7:09 am
“Rice ATM’ Feeds Vietnam’s Working Poor In Covid Lockdown”
https://tinyurl.com/t49nm9u zero hedge
“Vietnam’s working-class poor are being fed by a 24/7 automatic dispensing machine providing free rice following a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of COVID-19, reported Vietnam+. Hoang Tuan Anh, the Vietnamese entrepreneur behind the idea, designed the “rice ATM” to help “underprivileged people that have been impacted” by the shutdowns. As of Tuesday, there are 265 cases of the virus in the country with zero deaths. The spread has been slowed through strict social distancing measures enforced by the Communist government. The first ATM was installed in Ho Chi Minh City, a city in southern Vietnam. It dispenses a 3.3lb bag of rice to workers, many of whom have lost their jobs, as the government has shut down all non-essential businesses to slow the spread of the virus.”
Davy on Wed, 15th Apr 2020 7:14 am
“China Will Be Hit With Second Coronavirus Wave In November, Top Shanghai Clinical Expert Warns”
https://tinyurl.com/u84opq9 zero hedge
“Over the past two weeks we have reported on several occasions that hidden behind Beijing’s endless barrage of lies that “all is well”, China – which rushed to reopen the country in March long before the epidemic was eradicated from the mainland – is starting to suffer a second wave of coronavirus despite the government solemn vows that all new cases are imported…Needless to say, the last thing the global economy – which is mostly shut down everywhere but in China – can take is another Chinese lockdown. And yet, that’s precisely what may be coming. According to Caixin, China could see another surge in coronavirus infections starting in November, one of the country’s highest-profile medical experts has said, as low numbers of new cases prompt governments nationwide to get people back to work…Like other public health experts, Zhang expects that in the long term, countries will have to take a flexible approach to recurring outbreaks. “For a long time, epidemic prevention and control will go through periods of relaxation and tightening. It will be possible to live and work normally, but it probably won’t be possible to completely eradicate the outbreaks,” he said. That means countries must continue to fight the pandemic together even after their initial domestic outbreaks have peaked, Zhang said, adding: “Only when all nations have properly controlled the disease will we all be able to live well again.”
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 15th Apr 2020 7:22 am
By 2025 all NEW buses need to be emission-free in the Netherlands. The transition is now going so fast that ALL buses will be emission-free by 2025, not just the new ones:
https://www.wattisduurzaam.nl/25336/energie-besparen/transport/slechts-350-kilometer-bereik-voor-waterstofbussen-zuid-holland/
20 new hydrogen buses ordered from Polish company Solaris.
https://www.wattisduurzaam.nl/25283/energie-opwekken/zonne-energie/jaarlijks-meer-zonnepanelen-dan-duitsland-nu-heeft-uit-een-fabriek/
China builds a new solar panel factory with a giant output of 60 GW per year. That is more than currently installed in Germany. Factory operational by 2024.
That single factory could carry out the entire electricity transition of Europe in half a century.
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 15th Apr 2020 7:36 am
‘Europe can become climate-neutral before 2050 with 100% renewables’
https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/europe-can-become-climate-neutral-before-2050-with-100-renewables/2-1-792011
Spoiler: 2040.
“SSE rolls out action plan for UK to reach 40GW offshore wind goal”
https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/sse-rolls-out-action-plan-for-uk-to-reach-40gw-offshore-wind-goal/2-1-791730
From Russia with love: “Vestas exports first wind turbine blades from Russia to Denmark”
(Errr, it’s called imports)
https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/vestas-exports-first-wind-turbine-blades-from-russia-to-denmark/2-1-791958
Belgium first to run 9.5 MW offshore turbines: “Installation completed at first wind farm with MHI Vestas 9.5MW turbines”
https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/installation-completed-at-first-wind-farm-with-mhi-vestas-9-5mw-turbines/2-1-791984