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No Seller – Not Even China – Can Disrupt US By Selling Treasurys…But The “Why” Ain’t Good
I often read that China may retaliate against US trade sanctions by further decreasing their US Treasury holdings, sending Treasury yields significantly higher, thus blowing out US deficit spending on interest payments. Trouble is, Chinese Treasury holdings peaked in 2014 (on an annualized basis) and have been declining since. The Chinese have not only ceased accumulating US Treasury debt, despite continued record trade surplus’ with the US resulting in significant dollar surplus’, but have been decreasing their holdings. All this, according to the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system.
But this postulation that the Chinese could wound the US via selling a portion (or all) of its Treasury holdings (as Russia recently did) is submarined by the recent actions of the Federal Reserve. I say this based on the magnitudes greater accumulation and subsequent dumping of specific maturities of US Treasury debt done by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve accumulated almost $800 billion in 7 to 10 year US Treasury debt (red line, chart below) from 2009 to 2013, and then subsequently dumped $600 billion from early 2014 through the most present August 2018 data. And the impact on the 10 year yield (blue shaded area, chart below)…essentially zero. Yes, while the Fed rolled off and/or sold off 7 to 10 year holdings, they were busy buying short term debt. But this still meant someone had to step up in duration and buy all that longer duration debt the Fed no longer wanted.
To put the relative size of China’s 7 to 10 year holdings in perspective to the Fed’s like holdings, the chart above estimates that a third of Chinese Treasury holdings (likely an overestimation) were of the 7 to 10 year variety (gold line). The Fed has already rolled off / sold off 1.5x’s more 7 to 10 year debt than the Chinese even have. The impact on the 10 year Treasury yield while the Fed plus China sold off / rolled off a combined $650 billion of 7 to 10 year debt…essentially zero!!!
But to explain why the yields did not react (and likely never will), I have to take a step back and highlight the changing underlying population and demographics that are driving this.
Population / Demographics
The 25 to 54 year old US population and employment among them (and subsequent capability to consume) consistently grew in the post WWII period until 2000. But in 2000, the population growth decelerated (brown line, chart below) and employment among them significantly fell (blue line). The 25 to 54 year old population has only minimally grown since 2000 and not grown at all since 2007…but employment among the core (that makes up 70% of the US workforce and pays the vast majority of the Social Security taxes) is essentially right where it was in 2000.
To broaden the view, check the 15 to 64 year old US total population (red line, chart below) versus year over year changes in that population (blue columns). Obviously, the peak year over year population growth took place in 1998 (adding 2.7 million persons in that year alone) but growth has decelerated over 80% since that peak growth. The heyday of fast growing populations (at least, those under 65) and increasing quantities of employees, tax payers, and/or consumers has run its course…yet politicians and the Fed still target and tout economic growth, as if nothing had changed. However, the continued growth in US employment (and consumption) is simply mathematically running out of able bodies (Detailed HERE). Plus, the population growth estimates through 2030 shown below are premised on continuing significant rates of immigration. Absent a significant net inflow of immigrants, the under 65 year old population will be in outright decline. Of course, the changing population growth and demographics (particularly among the populations that do the vast majority of consuming) is a global issue (Detailed HERE).
Conversely, the 65+ year old population really began rocketing upward about 2008 and will hit its year over year peak growth in 2024. The population of 65+ year olds will increase by 20+ million from ’18 through ’30 versus an increase of less than 4 million among the 15 to 64 year olds. But worse still, over half that growth will be among the 75+ year olds. This will be the death knell of many poorly thought out programs premised on perpetual growth.
This has resulted in a debt fueled “extend and pretend” frenzy. The chart below shows annual 15 to 64 year old US population growth (yellow line) versus stacked columns showing annual consumer, federal, and corporate debt growth. One has to be very highly compensated to miss the explosion in debt tied to the slowdown in core population growth.
Federal Debt and the Intra-governmental Trust Fund
First, a look at US federal debt, split between US Public debt (marketable) and US Intra-Governmental debt (Social Security and other trust fund surplus’). Up to 2007, the Social Security and other federal trust fund surplus’ were mandated to purchase and hold US debt, to the tune of 44% of total US debt. But since 2007, federal debt issuance has been skyrocketing while the pace of IG purchasing continues decelerating. This means 85% of Treasury debt issued since ’07 has been marketable (marketable debt has risen $10.6 trillion versus a $1.8 trillion increase among the IG trust funds). This is a clean tripling of marketable debt and the IG trust funds will peak and begin declining likely prior to 2020, and 100%+ of all Treasury debt will be marketable from that point forward.
Which is to say, the remaining three sources of buying will have to really step up their appetite for US debt. But foreigners and the Federal Reserve have already ceased buying (net), and the sole buyer remaining is the domestic public (domestic insurers, banks, mutual funds, pensions, etc.).
Foreigners
From 2000 to 2007, foreigners purchased $1.3 trillion in net Treasury debt but from 2008 through 2014, foreigners stepped up to the plate nearly tripling their holdings, buying $3.8 trillion in net debt. However, since late 2014, foreigners have not only ceased buying US debt (net) but have followed the Fed’s lead and are presently net sellers.
Focusing on the three largest foreign holders of US Treasury’s; China, Japan, and the BLICS (Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Cayman Islands, Switzerland). China holdings peaked way back in 2011 while Japan and the BLICS peaked as QE ended and have been declining since. Upon the termination of QE, foreigners simply lost their appetite for US debt.
Below, a close up on the BLICS. What is noteworthy is the great scramble in these shadow banking capitals, particularly during each of the recent financial upheavals. And judging by the sharp movements again taking place in these unregulated, off-shore shells for hot money…things are again (perhaps not surprisingly) in upheaval.
Federal Reserve
The chart below details the size and shifting maturities of the Treasury’s held on the Federal Reserve balance sheet from 2003 to present. The total holdings of Treasury’s tripled and the Fed has now decreased total holdings from the peak by about $130 billion. However, the maturities held on their balance sheet have radically changed. The Fed has maintained nearly all their 20 to 30 year holdings. sold off two thirds their 7 to 10 year holdings, while initially buying in bulk 1 to 5 year but now piling into less than 1 year debt.
The Fed (and foreigners) ceased buying and turned to net sellers by 2015 as the IG trust fund buying continued decelerating against ramping Treasury issuance. This meant there was only one buyer left, the domestic public. But for domestic buyers, the spread between short term borrowing and long-term yields was falling from over 250 basis points in early 2014 to the current 26 basis points (grey shaded area in the chart below versus Fed’s shifting holdings).
Essentially, the utilization of leverage to enjoy the spread of borrowing short to buy long nearly evaporated while the relative benefit of buying short has outweighed the risk of going long. But we are to believe that as the Fed went on a short duration buying spree since 2015 (purple line below) coupled with a 7 to 10 year dump (yellow line) domestic sources piled into 7 to 10 year US debt (unleveraged?) to soak up the flood of assets destined to underperform inflation?!?
Domestic Public
So who among the domestic public is buying all that 7 to 10 year unleveraged debt, destined to underperform inflation? Not banks, or insurers, or state and local pensions…no, according to the Treasury Bulletin its a group originally intended as a catch all for the rounding errors, “other”. So “other”, with an assist from mutual funds, is saving America from having to face an interest rate Armageddon!?! The Treasury Bulletin defines “other” as follows; “includes individuals, Government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts and estates, corporate and non-corporate businesses, and other investors.” Make of that what you will, but I’m pretty confident buying 7 to 10 year debt, at this point, would be a quick means to significantly underperform and thus, real buyers wouldn’t do so…which means it’s a buyer(s) without profit motive that is “extending and pretending” our current economic and financial system for as long as possible. How much further this can go is difficult to say…but the shrinking number of winners and growing numbers of losers is more easily calculated.
Conclusion:
In short, Bernie Madoff would blush at the farce that is now the US Treasury market (further manipulating all downstream interest rate sensitive markets). A little lie or meddling led to more lying and more meddling…and suddenly the free market no longer exists. It should be clear that a buyer without profit motive is intervening in the Treasury market to maintain a bid and sustain continued low rates on US debt…all this because America has matured but those in control still want to synthetically maintain growth rates (hello China) via unrestrained debt issuance. Regardless how much debt the US issues and how few buyers remain, don’t look for interest rates to rise in kind.
99 Comments on "No Seller – Not Even China – Can Disrupt US By Selling Treasurys…But The “Why” Ain’t Good"
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:39 pm
“I am neither ‘extremist’ nor am I anti-American Davy.” “I am neither extremist nor am I anti-American.”
If you are not why do you try so hard to deny you are? This is because you can’t scrub that nasty smell off you. You throw around shit greggie and your hands stink. You are a bold face liar as usual.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:39 pm
“This should end well. Our whole financial system will sooner or later collapse and need to be rebuilt from scratch.”
A feature, not a bug. The entire system is based on fiat money, created out of thin air, with interest attached. IOW, usury. The system itself requires infinite exponential growth, which is an impossibility. The sooner it collapses, and a new system is devised, the better.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:42 pm
“If you are not why do you try so hard to deny you are? ”
Because I am not, and I’m sick and tired of you accusing me of something that I am not.
Give it a rest already Davy, and grow the fuck up.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:58 pm
“The entire system is based on fiat money, created out of thin air, with interest attached. IOW, usury.”
This is just not the reality of what is going on, greggie. What system are you talking about actually? What do you mean by fiat money? Created out of thin air?? There is a whole lot more to it than your usual one-liners greggie. Usury???LMFAO.
“The system itself requires infinite exponential growth, which is an impossibility.”
Infinite exponential growth? What do you mean by that? Infinite is a big as concept. Do you think you are exaggerating greggie? There is the factor of time involved here. There is also the fact that growth can turn to decline. This decline may bring on a bifurcation to some other kind of systematic condition. None of us here know what that might be nor where it might start. How long will this process go on. Some places might continue to grow and others decline. Many of us realize civilization will likely end at some point but the when is a very big picture.
“The sooner it collapses, and a new system is devised, the better.”
There greggie goes advocating collapse. He is up in the hills of BC all content and ready for the big collapse. He could give a shit about all those people that will die. He is like “bring it on” “I am ready” says greggie. Greggie what about all those people who are not ready? Don’t you think maybe they need time to get ready?
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 6:59 pm
“Because I am not, and I’m sick and tired of you accusing me of something that I am not.
Give it a rest already Davy, and grow the fuck up.”
greggie, see how screwing with people backfires. It is a good lesson for you to learn.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:09 pm
To deal with climate change we need a new financial system
“hen it comes to global warming, we know that the real problem is not just fossil fuels – it is the logic of endless growth that is built into our economic system. If we don’t keep the global economy growing by at least 3% per year, it plunges into crisis. That means we have to double the size of the economy every 20 years, just to stay afloat. It doesn’t take much to realise that this imperative for exponential growth makes little sense given the limits of our finite planet.”
“Rapid climate change is the most obvious symptom of this contradiction, but we’re also seeing it in the form of deforestation, desertification and mass extinction, with species dying at an alarming rate as our consumption of the natural world causes their habitats to collapse. It was unthinkable to say this even 10 years ago, but today, as we become increasingly aware of these crises, it seems all too clear: our economic system is incompatible with life on this planet.”
“The question is what to do about it. How can we redesign the global economy to bring it in line with the principles of ecology? The most obvious answer is to stop using GDP to measure economic progress and replace it with a more thoughtful measure – one that accounts for the ecological and social impact of economic activity. Prominent economists like Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz have been calling for such changes for years and it’s time we listened.”
“One way to relieve the pressure for endless growth might be to cancel some of the debt – a kind of debt jubilee. But this would only provide a short-term fix; it wouldn’t get to the real root of the problem: that the global economic system runs on money that is itself debt.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/nov/05/how-a-new-money-system-could-help-stop-climate-change
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:12 pm
“greggie, see how screwing with people backfires. It is a good lesson for you to learn.”
As long as you choose to continue to harass, bully, personally attack other people, and lie through your teeth Davy, the retaliations will continue.
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:14 pm
If only Davy could see himself through the eyes of the rest of us here, he would go away and get himself committed to a psychiatric hospital. If his family will not pay for it, he can get it free from the government.
https://dmh.mo.gov/mentalillness/helpinfo/
or
https://www.mo.gov/health/mental-health/
or
http://www.mentalhealthamerica.net/finding-therapy
or
https://www.freeclinics.com/sta/missouri
Ain’t America great! LMAO
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:19 pm
GregT, yes, the money system is collapsing the ecology that supports life on this planet. I am not sure what should replace it but ending capitalism and going to a gold based system seems to be the right direction. I think that day is coming, but will it be soon enough to prevent our extinction? That is the question.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:27 pm
“To deal with climate change we need a new financial system”
What if a new financial system is not in the cards? To dealing with climate change goes much deeper than a financial system anyway. It deals with the very heart of how we consume and our population levels. You are not going to deal much with climate change by changing the global economy because it cannot be changed much at all. Climate change is already baked into the cake anyway. What will likely happen is a radical economic change will just make the world a messier place and increase climate change. Climate change might even increase because there may not be the economic ability to transform the way we live even a little if the economy has collapsed. It appears to be heading for a collapse by many measurements but no one knows how far off that is.
“our economic system is incompatible with life on this planet.”
More like humans that choose to be modern and in the numbers that choose to be affluent is the reason for the incompatibility. Blaming the economy is not the way to explain this. The economy is just a result. The economy is an expression of who we are. We are likely stuck with what we have and we better make the best of it. We can adapt and mitigate but we are not going to change much except around the edges.
“The question is what to do about it. How can we redesign the global economy to bring it in line with the principles of ecology? The most obvious answer is to stop using GDP to measure economic progress and replace it with a more thoughtful measure .”
Too little too late to do shit. Changing the GDP measure is just a joke. You need to tell humans to embrace poverty and we need draconian reproductive changes. Without that forget much change that makes any real impact.
“One way to relieve the pressure for endless growth might be to cancel some of the debt – a kind of debt jubilee.”
Sure thing, I would like to see you try doing that and see how far that gets 7BIL people. LOL
“But this would only provide a short-term fix; it wouldn’t get to the real root of the problem: that the global economic system runs on money that is itself debt.”
There is no way to get around debt with a modern global system that support 7BIL plus people. If populations were much lower and economies localized I would say yes maybe but not what we have now.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:28 pm
“As long as you choose to continue to harass, bully, personally attack other people, and lie through your teeth Davy, the retaliations will continue.”
Then quit your whining pussy. Experience your own medicine.
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:31 pm
“If only Davy could see himself through the eyes of the rest of us here”
You mean you and the gang, right slip slidin? I could give a shit about you and your gangbangers. Why don’t you debate the topic and leave your stupid drama out of this. People are sick and tired of the bitch fest. They are ok with a good debate. What is the matter are you afraid to debate?
Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:34 pm
“I am not sure what should replace it but ending capitalism and going to a gold based system seems to be the right direction.”
Explain that slip slidin. Just throwing out a one-liner does not cut it. How is a gold based system going to be introduced and how will that save us?
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:47 pm
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Albert Bartlett
Davy would be a prime example of someone who does not have the capacity to understand such a simple concept.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:14 pm
Those are some great links for those suffering from mental health issues Mak. Hopefully, the excpetionlturd, will one day, snap out of his delusional state long enough for the state to provide him with nice, quiet, non-judgmental padded cell.
Of course, the irony is, caring for the mentally disturbed, is one of the few growth industries left in amero-israeli empire. Maybe modern society is just too ‘complex’ for vaguely humanish turd lumps like davyturd to handle, or comprehend?
Tell us the truth (for once). You checked out all those links Mak provided for you, didn’t you, delusionalist?
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:19 pm
Delusional Davy “greggie, see how screwing with people backfires. It is a good lesson for you to learn.
You are projecting again, Exceptionalist! LOL! You are the one that needs to learn that lesson, not Greg.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:26 pm
Delusional Davy “”I am neither extremist nor am I anti-American.”
If you are not why do you try so hard to deny you are?”
Because you are constantly falsely accusing us that we are simply because you disagree with us. You are the biggest liar on this board, Exceptionalist! You wouldn’t know the truth if it hit you with a 2X4 in the face!
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:30 pm
Delusional Davy “You are just upset because I have succeeded in neutering your extremist message.”
Your delusions that you can neuter anything are a clear symptom of your insanity, Exceptionalist! You are about as fucked up as a person can be without being institutionalized.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:34 pm
Delusional Davy “What do you mean by fiat money?”
For someone who pretends to be an “economist” you are extremely ignorant of economic matters? Do you really not know what fiat money is or are you just acting stupid?
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:39 pm
Delusional Davy “Then quit your whining pussy.”
More attacks, insults, and bullying from the board’s insane bully. The FBI should investigate Davy because he is a danger to society. He could go postal any fucking day now. Send Davy to Guantanamo to get fucked and tortured by the US government.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:44 pm
Anon “Of course, the irony is, caring for the mentally disturbed, is one of the few growth industries left in amero-israeli empire.”
Very sad but completely true. People like Davy are a clear sign of the decline and decadence of contemporary American society. Only a thoroughly sick society could produce someone like Davy. That is why 99% of school shootings happen in the USA. No other place in the world has so many people sick enough to shoot up kids in school.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:08 pm
“I am not sure what should replace it but ending capitalism and going to a gold based system seems to be the right direction.”
Completely agree Makati. The current system is not working, is eventually going to collapse in on itself, and is in need of harsh reform. Unfortunately, I have absolutely zero confidence that the system will be changed before it collapses. I see the same with the Earth’s natural ecosystems. Humans in general are far too afraid, or reluctant to change.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:19 pm
Greg
Gold won’t be worth shit without energy to back it up..You would be better off with a bag of beef jerky..
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:23 pm
I sadly agree GregT. We seem to have evolved into a herd mentality in the Western world. I’m not sure if the correct sound is ‘Baa’ or ‘Moo’, but many seem to be unable to see the cliff ahead. Some of us have moved out of the herd and stand on the sidelines watching the stampede, but we will eventually end up being the last humans standing and not for long.
Apparently the addiction to a high lifestyle along with constant brainwashing will keep the Western “consumer” (What a perfect definition!) on track to the bitter end. I hope a huge and total financial crash takes the whole system down soon. It may give humanity another few decades or longer. There may even be enough ecosystem survive to keep the species going in small numbers around the world. I hope so.
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:30 pm
MM, again you show your lack of education. Gold has been the “money” of choice long before “energy” was even thought of. It was used for trade at least 7,000 years ago and will always have value. It doesn’t take faith to give it value. It just has value.
It doesn’t corrode, or evaporate. It makes your cell phone and other electronics work. It is beautiful and even if buried for hundreds or thousand of years, still shines like new. If you have gold, you will always have something to trade.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:32 pm
Mak
Back in the past they didn’t live in complex societies like they do now..You are comparing apples to rocks..
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:52 pm
No MM, you are once again showing your ignorance of the real world. Billions do NOT live in ‘complex’ societies. Mostly the West, not all of humanity. Get educated and come back with a logical, informed rebuttal, if you can.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:08 pm
Mak
Why can’t you argue your point without insulting me? That just shows how weak your arguments merits are..And there are not billions living outside of complex societies..You think because you live on the other side of the world you are some international expert..You are nothing more than an ignorant old crank who was paid insane wages for turning screws without any education..
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:20 pm
Mm “Gold won’t be worth shit without energy to back it up.”
Gold has been used for trading for millenia. The Sun will still shine, the wind will still blow, and water will still flow downhill. I have food and water supplies to last me years, tools and supplies, a shelter that will last past my death, and the means to defend it, I have gold and silver, too, but they are not for me cause I won’t need them; they are for my nephews. I would rather have all these things than paper or digital money that could lose all its value in a flash. The last thing I started buying was the metals, though. I only started buying them once I had nothing else left to buy.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:23 pm
Juanp
How are you going to mine and transport gold without oil you moron?
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:23 pm
Mm “You are nothing more than an ignorant old crank who was paid insane wages for turning screws without any education.”
You are funny, MM. You complain about Mak insulting you and then proceed to insult him. Pot? Kettle? Black? LOL! You sound just like the Exceptionalist. Only the USA could raise someone like you!
MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:24 pm
Utah Republican made Nazi ‘joke’ on Facebook
https://kutv.com/news/local/utah-republican-leaders-made-nazi-jokes-on-facebook
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:25 pm
The gold has already been mined, MM, and it is quite portable. Your insults only prove how weak your arguments are.
JuanP on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:30 pm
The current economic system is unsustainable. Things that are unsustainable can’t, by definition, be sustained. The system won’t be reformed before collapsing; it will be replaced after collapsing. Gold will remain useful, just like it has been for millenia. Some places will be better off than others. Large cities and complex societies will collapse. Rural areas and more primitive societies will adapt with more ease.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:47 pm
dAvyturd, did you create ‘msuhmind’, so you could parade your ignorance around here, and stamp your widdle feet like a 10 year year old having a tantrum. But without the (added) embarrassment of using your own name? An even dumber less…cultured(lol) version of yourself, leaving you free to attempt cultivate an air of intellectual and moral superiority(ROFL) as the excpetionalturd?
If the answer is yes, then, as you amerikants like to say, mission accomplished. Well, minus for the part about the aura of intellectual superiority of course.
GregT on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:02 pm
“How are you going to mine and transport gold without oil you moron?”
How did people mine and transport gold for over 7000 years without oil, genius?
makati1 on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:08 pm
MM, how did they mine and transport gold 7,000 years ago? With muscle power, sails and oars. How did they build the pyramids 5,000 years ago without oil? Same way. The world worked and existed long before oil or electric MM. Your ignorance seems to always be on display.
You get what you dish out as far as insults go, hypocrite. Grow up and act like a mature adult and you just might get treated as an equal, not as the spoiled brat you display.
makati1 on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 3:01 am
CIA /WaPo: “When I received my briefing as staff associate, House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, which required top secret clearance, I was told by senior members of the staff that the Washington Post was a CIA asset.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-19/paul-craig-roberts-cia-owns-us-european-media
” Cold-War/anti-Communist/anti-Russian bias that Americans have been raised with for a full century.”
Brainwashed…all the way! Slip slidin’…
Cloggie on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 4:15 am
@makati – here retired German media big whigs revealing that all “news” in Germany is propaganda and comes straight from the Pentagon:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/07/29/german-media-insiders-german-news-is-fake-news-and-pentagon-propaganda/
P.S. WaPo was bought by (((Jeff Bezos))), for those who (pretend to) not to know what ZOG is.
ZOG = CIA = media = Pentagon = koshers = 9/11 = holohoax = death white race, all covered up by imperial simpletons like MM, Davy, boat, tard.
And now it is all going to fall flat on its face because of DJT, the wrecking ball of the empire, with whitey stampeding to the exits:
https://www.google.nl/amp/s/www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/567167/
Interesting question: in how many parts are the US and Canada going to fall apart. My bet:
US: 4
Canada: 4
Davy on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 6:08 am
“The current economic system is unsustainable. Things that are unsustainable can’t, by definition, be sustained. The system won’t be reformed before collapsing; it will be replaced after collapsing.”
When Juan, is the question? This is like saying the sun will turn into a red star someday. For our purposes of arguing gold based system then the when is needed. You say the system won’t be reformed but who are we or anyone to know? It may be reformed in some areas.
“Gold will remain useful, just like it has been for millenia.”
You spelled millennia wrong. OK, sure it will remain useful. Does that mean as money as in coins or just a valuable that is a store of wealth?
“Some places will be better off than others.
That is a no-brainer
“Large cities and complex societies will collapse.”
“Will” is a large decisive word, juan. Maybe some will collapse. Complex societies might survive in some places if they are structure properly.
“ Rural areas and more primitive societies will adapt with more ease.”
Some rural areas will be depopulated because they can’t be supported or defended. Some that are supported and depended may thrive as it is likely many will need to return to the land to grow food. Just because a society is primitive does not mean it will adapt with “more” ease. There are many more variables to adaptation of any kind of society. If that society is not overpopulated and it is located in a sustainable place then it may adapt better than the equivalent overpopulated complex society facing resource constraints. Yet, not all complex societies are necessarily like our that are top heavy with tech. Some complex societies in the past have been societies that were wise with resource use and behavior, bog difference. Define complex societies better. Many primitive overpopulated societies may collapse.
Davy on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 6:17 am
“ZOG = CIA = media = Pentagon = koshers = 9/11 = holohoax = death white race, all covered up by imperial simpletons like MM, Davy, boat, tard.”
LOL, who is the simpleton and the obsessive. I wish I had a dollar for every time you say ZOG.
“And now it is all going to fall flat on its face because of DJT, the wrecking ball of the empire, with whitey stampeding to the exits:”
The Empire is over, neder. It is now a complex multipolar world with a global integrated economy. Simpletons like you that lust for a personal agenda use an abstract “empire” as their villain. There are so many pissed off people all looking for boogiemen. That is what primarily makes this board up.
“Interesting question: in how many parts are the US and Canada going to fall apart. My bet: US: 4 Canada: 4”
Oh, aren’t you smart. Can you show us with one of those WordPress kindergarten maps you draw up? I think Europe will break up into many more parts as it has throughout history. The Eurotard Union is dying. Why not talk about that.
JuanP on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 7:40 am
It seems that Davy’s mental problems problems keep getting worse. Now he can’t even understand what fiat money or complex societies are, and seems to be incapable to understand even the most basic concepts. If you think that I am going to waste my time explaining anything to you, Exceptionalist, you really don’t understand how little I think of you. I wonder, are you pretending to be more stupid than you are or actually losing your mind?
JuanP on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 7:43 am
It is very hard to predict into how many pieces the USA will break up, but it will be several. Geography, politics, culture, and race will play a big role. The only thing that is 100% certain is that it will break up!
Davy on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 8:17 am
Juan, you are such a simpleton. It is obvious you don’t have very deep intellectual abilities on the subject. It was easy to clean up your lame comment. Any time I see 100% or “will” it is likely this comes out of an extremist and simpleton. Juan is an example of both.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 8:35 am
They are going to crash the market and Trump will be the fall guy..And it will usher in a NWO…
JuanP on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 8:37 am
Delusional Davy “Juan, you are such a simpleton.”
You are projecting again, Exceptionalist! LOL! But, it is understandable. Things always look simple to people with simple minds because they can’t see or understand the complexities involved. If you think that the USA will last forever you are the simple one. I said the USA would break up, I didn’t say when. I guess that was too complex for your feeble mind to understand.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 9:03 am
How worried should we be about a second Civil War breaking out in Trump’s America?
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/worried-second-civil-war-breaking-trumps-america/
JuanP on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 9:08 am
“The CIA Owns the US and European media”
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/08/20/cia-owns-us-european-media.html
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 9:11 am
Civil war will break out world wide when the gasoline rationing starts..