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Global Population Growth Ceased In 1988…Population Has Only Grown Older Since Then

Global Population Growth Ceased In 1988…Population Has Only Grown Older Since Then thumbnail

The world stopped growing about 1988… and has only grown older since.

Global births, per five year periods, according to the UN. 

Births and UN medium and low variant estimates through 2040…plus my best estimate of the most likely births.  Despite the significantly larger (older) total population, births continue to languish and appear set to decline.  Since 2000, total births are declining everywhere except Africa.

Assuming the UN medium variant…chart below shows births by Africa, S. Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Iran, Sri Lanka) and the world minus Africa / S. Asia..

Or, looking at births by GNI (gross national income) per capita.  Only the poorest nations are having more children, while all other nations (by income) are having significantly fewer (high income and upper middle) or stalling (lower middle income nations).

The next charts below show the child bearing populations, from high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income countries (based on 2016 GNI per capita, detailed by the World Bank HERE).

For the high income countries, peak annual growth in the child bearing population took place as of 1963, but the total child bearing population didn’t peak until 2009.  The population capable of child birth will continue falling through at least 2030 and likely far longer.

The upper middle income countries peak annual growth took place as of 1985 and the total child bearing population also turned negative in 2009…and again will continue declining indefinitely.

Lower middle income countries peak annual child bearing population growth took place in 2000 and annual and total growth continues to decelerate.

Low income countries annual child bearing population growth is still rising and not likely to peak until around 2040, while the total child bearing population will continue rising until perhaps 2060.

Finally, the best proxy for economic activity is energy consumption.  The chart below shows actual and EIA estimate energy consumption through 2040.  Clearly, the population growth in S. Asia (lower middle income) and particularly in Africa (low income nations) has not and is not anticipated to result in significant energy consumption or economic activity.

What that looks like as a %.

Somebody should write about this stuff.

Econimica blog



99 Comments on "Global Population Growth Ceased In 1988…Population Has Only Grown Older Since Then"

  1. MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:40 am 

    Davy

    You are afraid of the sources I post..I laugh at the sources you post..You impotent old geezer..

  2. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:26 am 

    Sure, mm, you are just an attention getter. The more outrageous and disturbing the comment you feel gets you the greatest exposure. There is nothing clever about that strategy. It is called tabloid. Mature people see right through your spam as noise. I am still laughing at the phoney PHD shit. What a joke. I doubt you made it through college. You look like you lack the discipline needed to even get through undergraduate studies.

  3. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:48 am 

    I wonder how many of those 50,000 Americans dying from opioid abuse are killing themselves because they can’t stand living in the USA any longer. I know one person who did that.

  4. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:49 am 

    I see that Delusional Davy and his multiple personalities are at it again.

  5. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 8:07 am 

    Sure Boney Juan, is that the reason you almost killed yourself or was that just because you hate yourself deep down? Go home

  6. pointer on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 8:20 am 

    “Global Population Growth Ceased In 1988”

    Is there something subtle I’m missing? In 1988, the global population was a bit over 5 billion. In 2018, it is well over 7 billion. Yet population growth ceased? I have to admit — given the title of the article — I didn’t bother to waste my time to study the graphs and read meager commentary.

  7. pointer on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 8:32 am 

    In much of the world, including Makati’s Asia, the world fertility rate (currently 2.23 births/woman) is trending toward the replacement rate. In many regions, it is already there or even below the replacement rate. This trending has to do with several sociological and resource related mechanisms, and will happen in Africa when the conditions are right. Even with a fertility rate that is close to the replacement rate, population will grow for a while, and then top out at 11 billion or so at or about 2050 when the size of each generation has about the same number of people. Of course lots of things could happen between now and 2050 that could materially affect the way population growth plays out, such as some exceedingly grim and painful events that kills off a lot of people of child-bearing age, possibly even within the next decade or so. Selfishly I’m glad my stint here on the planet is largely over.

  8. pointer on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 8:33 am 

    Meant to say:

    “In much of the world, including Makati’s Asia, the fertility rate (the world rate is currently 2.23 births/woman) is”

  9. MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 9:27 am 

    Davy

    Give a man a mask and he will show you his true face..

    -Oscar Wilde

  10. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 9:37 am 

    Mm, why not just contribute reasonably and avoid the tabloid effect. Does your personality crave the Jerry Springer Effect?

  11. MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 10:17 am 

    Davy

    I like to keep things interesting..I am the most interesting man on this board..By a country mile..

    LMFAO

  12. MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 10:28 am 

    Russian Hacking of 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections has already started, Microsoft warns

    https://www.newsweek.com/russian-hacking-2018-midterm-elections-has-already-started-microsoft-warns-1034048m

  13. Davy1 on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 10:49 am 

    Page not found mm, try that fake news again

  14. MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 11:06 am 

    Davy

    Unlike you I don’t spread fake news from scaremongering click bait farms

    All you had to do was google the title..You religious moron

    https://www.newsweek.com/russian-hacking-2018-midterm-elections-has-already-started-microsoft-warns-1034048

  15. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 11:49 am 

    Delusional Davy “Sure Boney Juan, is that the reason you almost killed yourself or was that just because you hate yourself deep down? Go home”

    I never almost killed myself. You are lying as usual. You are a compulsive liar, a bully, and a disgusting person. Little wonder that nobody in the world loves you and your partners and children turned their backs on you. God knows they are better off without you.

  16. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 11:52 am 

    And I am not going anywhere, scum. I am going to stay here for as long as I want and there’s absolutely nothing you can do about it because you are a weak, powerless, pathetic loser, Exceptionalist. You are such a sad fuck.

  17. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 12:26 pm 

    “America’s derangement syndrome”
    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/07/20/america-derangement-syndrome-danger-world-peace.html

  18. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 12:32 pm 

    boney juan, you have told us in the past about your life long struggle with suicide or was that a lie?

    go home please. This is not your country

  19. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 12:58 pm 

    No dumbass, juan never told ‘us’ anything of the sort.

    That is just another one of your (many) delusional fantasy’s. You are deeply disturbed, and in need of a major reality check. Why dont you get started on that, and give the whole sock puppet and shilling for the empire thing a rest.

  20. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 12:58 pm 

    “You have told us in the past about your life long struggle with suicide or was that a lie?”

    Us? LOL

    There’s that Royal ‘we’ again. You really are quite the nutcase Davy.

    “go home please. This is not your country”

    The U.S. is JuanP’s home. He is legally entitled to live there. And it isn’t ‘your’ country Davy. America does not belong to you. You belong to it.

  21. Antius on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 1:19 pm 

    Great. Another bitch slapping contest. It gets awful tiresome. How about staying vaguely on topic, people.

  22. Sissyfuss on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 1:56 pm 

    Goes with the territory, Antius. As the screws are tightened by resource depletion, loss of seasonality, and desperation in general then tribal warfare and prejudice will rule the day. This site is just a little ahead of the curve.

  23. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 2:02 pm 

    Antius, these guys don’t want and end to these personal attacks. Even when I made an effort to go a different direction with my comments they doubled their efforts to screw with me. These guys like this behavior and they want to own this board. They operate in a gang and they target individuals. I make sure they pay a price for this bad behavior. We are stuck with this situation. These people are double standard hypocrites with personality problems. They are generally off topic and pursue a personal agenda. This agenda is extreme and hateful. These guys are stuck on themselves and constantly brag about how wonderful they are.

  24. MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 3:11 pm 

    Climate Change Is Disrupting the Planet’s Seasons

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-20/climate-change-is-disrupting-the-planet-s-seasons

  25. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 3:28 pm 

    You have been warned numerous times Davy.

    Put an end to your constant personal attacks against others here, including myself, or the retaliations will continue.

    Your choice.

  26. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 3:42 pm 

    Shut up greggie, you are such a pathetic whiner. Like I give a shit about a warning from you. What are you going to do call me a name. LMFAO Shove your warning in your suck. Can you say something because you have not said shit today. You have just shown how emotional stupid you can get over nothing.

  27. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 3:58 pm 

    Then the retaliations will continue.

  28. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 4:14 pm 

    Ooh, I am shivering in my britches. LMFAo. Greggie, you never stopped dumbass. Go talk to your therapist about your obsessions. You need help.

  29. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 4:28 pm 

    You are a complete lowlife, Exceptionalist. I have no intention of giving you a break until the end of Summer. Your behavior from now until then will determine if I will ever stop “bitch slapping you, cunt”. The way things are going I think you are fucked.

    If you want to be able to enjoy this forum again you need to start letting others enjoy it, too, Davy. It works both ways and as I have told you many times, you are the one that started this and you are the one that can end it. It is your fucking delusional obsession that you are fighting “anti-Americans” that has been polarizing the board for years and has caused many good regulars to leave. You are this board’s ruin, Davy. You have a toxic personality and my guess is you’ve ruined every relationship you’ve ever had. You are a sad, pathetic, delusional American exceptionalist. In other words, a lowlife, goat sucking, motherfucking son of a whore.

  30. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 4:49 pm 

    I just read Davy’s bullshit above. For the record, I have said that I have struggled with depression, not suicide. And I also said that I contemplated the idea of killing myself when I was young, which is not the same as having a “life long struggle with suicide”. I am a thinker and I always consider every possibility. For me, to not consider the idea of suicide as a way to die would be like being biased in my thought. Davy is very good at lying, moving goalposts, telling falsehoods, and distorting and denying the truth. A slippery, pathetic sad fuck is what he is.

  31. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 4:58 pm 

    “You are a complete lowlife, Exceptionalist.”
    If that is the case boney juan, you are the equivalent to an amoeba.

    ‘I have no intention of giving you a break until the end of Summer.”
    Of course you won’t’ dumbass and you could give a shit about others here. This is how South American playboys behave. It is all about “ME”. What a pathetic clown.

    “Your behavior from now until then will determine if I will ever stop “bitch slapping you, cunt”. The way things are going I think you are fucked.”
    What is so funny about you and greggie is you somehow forget this is the digital world. You don’t have a gun pointed at my head. You are just talking shit. Like I care. In fact it is mission accomplished that extremist like you are borderline neurotic over me. Get a life dumbass. I have been dealing with you pathetic losers now for 5 years.

    “If you want to be able to enjoy this forum again you need to start letting others enjoy it, too, Boney Juan.

    “It works both ways and as I have told you many times, you are the one that started this and you are the one that can end it.”
    Shut up numbnut. I attempted another direction over the fourth of July not because of you dumbasses but in the name of knowledge and others here. You and your gang made sure that I was not allowed to be here unmolested. So now I am back and you will be moderated daily so be on your best closet Nazi.

    “It is your fucking delusional obsession that you are fighting “anti-Americans” that has been polarizing the board for years and has caused many good regulars to leave.”
    My effort has run off many of you extremist anti-Americans. You extremist have run the regulars off.

    “You are this board’s ruin, Boney Juan. You have a toxic personality and my guess is you’ve ruined every relationship you’ve ever had. You are a sad, pathetic, delusional South American playboy exceptionalist. In other words, a lowlife, cock sucking, motherfucking son of a whore.”
    Go home you are unwanted in my country

  32. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:01 pm 

    “I just read Davy’s bullshit above. For the record, I have said that I have struggled with depression, not suicide.”
    man up pussy

    “Davy is very good at lying, moving goalposts, telling falsehoods, and distorting and denying the truth. A slippery, pathetic sad fuck is what he is.”
    What da matter boney juan can’t you handle the pressure, pussy? Go home you friggin retarded South American unwanted resident alien.

  33. pointer on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:32 pm 

    What passes for “news” these days is just entertainment.

    The abuse going on here is just like the “news”, i.e., entertainment, albeit sick entertainment, just like the “news”.

    Would it not be refreshing to find somewhere that tells you what went on in the world without the motive of luring you in for the purposes of beating you over the head with advertising?

  34. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:38 pm 

    I am home, Exceptionalist! The USA has been my home for almost 30 years, moron. And I will stay here for as long as I want. Grow up, retard!

  35. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:38 pm 

    “Go home you are unwanted in my country”

    Poor widdle Davy, has no control over who is legally entitled to call America home.

    That in itself should be a wake up call for his delusional belief that the USA is ‘his’ country.

    Apparently not.

  36. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:44 pm 

    Boney Juan, move up to Butthole Columbia. You would fit right in with Greggie types. You two really do belong together. For some reason you two think you deserve respect. You deserve nothing but a kick in the ass. Two wealthy solid brats with horrible attitudes.

  37. Makati1 on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:58 pm 

    Davy is on the brink of ‘going postal’ guys. All he needs is an AK47, some ammo and a hotel room above some venue where crowds gather. Or, maybe, just a herd of goats to slaughter.

    He is so frustrated that he cannot beat us up physically, so he attempts to do it verbally, on here, but it isn’t working. LOL.

  38. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:38 pm 

    “Boney Juan, move up to Butthole Columbia.”

    I’m sure that if JuanP felt like moving to BC, he would. It sounds to me though, that he would prefer to stay at his home in the States.

  39. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:40 pm 

    “Davy is on the brink of ‘going postal’ guys.”
    3rd world is on the brink of going senior and wetting his pants. How is that incontinence 3rd? Must be tough to get a clean catheter there in the p’s

    “ All he needs is an AK47, some ammo and a hotel room above some venue where crowds gather. Or, maybe, just a herd of goats to slaughter.”
    3rd world, you are the one obsessed with WWIII, suicide, and deadly natural disasters. You delight in death. I think you are as boney juan says “projecting”. You are the one going postal but you are too old to do anything but preach your madness here

    “He is so frustrated that he cannot beat us up physically, so he attempts to do it verbally, on here, but it isn’t working. LOL.”
    3rd world, I think you need to make that point to your buddy boney juan and grehgi. Both have threatened me physically through their words. Grehgiee has threatened to come down here and find me. He has many times said he wanted to beat me to inches of my life. He has played all kind of psychological cards as if that scares me.

  40. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:46 pm 

    “Davy is on the brink of ‘going postal’ guys. ”

    Somebody really needs to report the guy to the local authorities. He’s bad news just waiting for a place to happen.

  41. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:59 pm 

    greggie, do you realize you have said nothing today?? All you have done is stalk and prick. You are enabling and supporting boney juan and 3rd world. What a loser in regards to increasing knowledge here. You are worthless as a contributor and basically gumming up the board with your emotional obsessions. You need to get back to that therapist you told us about in November

  42. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:14 pm 

    I enjoy reading what other people have to say Davy, without you constantly attacking them just because their opinions hurt your widdle feelings.

  43. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:20 pm 

    greggor, you enjoy pricking and have little to say, big difference.

  44. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:28 pm 

    It makes no difference how upset it makes you Davy, people are entitled to their own opinions. If you can’t handle that, then please move on.

  45. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:52 pm 

    Greg has said plenty today exceptionalturd. Things you need to hear, and be reminded of. The fact that you are deaf dumb, insane and completely oblivious to the many issues you suffer from, does not make the message any less pertinent.

  46. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:54 pm 

    asperger, you are worse than grehggor, you go a week without saying anything and when you do it is jew baiting. You are the bord biggest loser. Go bite yourself dork

  47. Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 7:56 pm 

    “If you can’t handle that, then please move on.”

    then why are such a biased anti-American?

  48. GregT on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 8:17 pm 

    For about the five hundredth time Davy, I am not anti-American.

  49. JuanP on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 8:21 pm 

    Davy is obviously a danger to society. His story doesn’t have a happy ending.

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