EVs Alone Could Peak Oil Demand In The Late 2020s

Equipment and machinery are seen on the production line at the second phase of the Chery Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Co. plant in Changshu, China, on Wednesday, June 27, 2018. Jaguar Land Rover is planning to build an electric vehicle in China as the iconic British manufacturer steps up its game in a fast-growing market where other luxury marques from Audi to Mercedes-Benz are plowing money to gain leadership. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Potential demand displacement from electric vehicles could peak oil demand sooner than expected, according to the latest research. In order to achieve global decarbonisation goals however, it’s going to be necessary to address other oil hungry sectors like aviation, shipping and petrochemicals.

Research group Carbon Tracker has been arguing for some time that the shift towards electric vehicles could have a more rapid impact that most analysts are projecting. Carbon Tracker’s New Energy Strategist Kingsmill Bond argues that change in the market are likely to follow the development path of energy technologies like wind and solar. Global incumbents from fossil fuel companies to international agencies have continued to under-forecast the growth of renewables year on year for a long time.

It could be argued that they are denying the potential threat of new technologies but its far more likely that incumbents have a blind spot when it comes to existential threats. According to Bond, three to four years of current growth rates could result in all incremental growth in energy demand could come from non-fossil fuel sources. That’s a time frame that few incumbents are equipped to manage.

Carbon Tracker’s latest report Electric Vehicles: The catalyst to further decarbonisation finds that 2 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil demand could be displaced by EVs in the 2020s. While small in stature, this volume of oil can result in disproportionately large levels of disruption to the industry; it was a 2mbd imbalance in supply/ demand that resulted in the 2014 oil price crash. In a feasible, worst-case scenario for the oil and gas industry, 8mbd of oil demand is at risk from EVs by 2030.

The simple fact is that the size of the global EV fleet is the most significant variable determining the potential displacement of oil demand. While EV’s many not be fully sustainable if powered by fossil-fuel electricity, the reality is that oil is rarely used in power generation today. Even if electricity is fossil-fuel powered, it’s the oil industry that will suffer with electrification of the fleet. This will become even more stark as much demand growth is expected to come from the developing world. Such markets are taking significant interest in EVs, if for no other reason that to address the morbidity and mortality implications of road transport related air pollution.

According to Carbon Tracker, strongly growing annual mileage per EV due to shared mobility services and other trends mean 1 million barrels per day of oil demand could be displaced by just 48.9 million EVs, all other things remaining equal.  Alternatively, if the fuel economy of the remaining internal combustion engine (ICE) fleet improves in a 2°C-compliant scenario 1 million barrels per day of oil is displaced for each 82.5 million EVs, all other things remaining equal

Licence to operate is a major factor for any multinational, and the shifting perspective on fossil fuel use was only recently highlighted when the Pope decided to get involved. Pope Francis called on the oil & gas executives to take action on climate change, stating that “with each month that passes, the challenge of energy transition becomes more pressing.” With the oil and gas industry underestimating the speed, scale and impact of future electric vehicle growth the time to act is now.

Forbes

85 Comments on "EVs Alone Could Peak Oil Demand In The Late 2020s"

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:51 am 



Greg

Sure you have, just like you aware the government is spying on you through your cell phone..you must think really high of yourself it you think the government would spy on you..the hubris of the uneducatd boomers..

GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:57 am 



“Sure you have, just like you aware the government is spying on you through your cell phone..you must think really high of yourself it you think the government would spy on you..the hubris of the uneducatd boomers..”

Internet Trolls Are Narcissists, Psychopaths, and Sadists

Trolls will lie, exaggerate, and offend to get a response.

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 1:11 pm 



Global economy in jeopardy because of trade war between US, China and EU, warns WTO

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/us-trade-war-china-eu-tariffs-economy-wto-trump-global-latest-a8431691.html

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 5:38 pm 



Davy

Great minds think alike. Weasel, Third World, Neder, Bony Juan, and the others are impotent against our unified forces!!!!!!

GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 5:49 pm 



You ‘guys’ are legendary MM.

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 5:51 pm 



Greg

I didn’t say that..Someone used my name..You are easily duped..

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 5:57 pm 



Latvia probes ‘racist’ election ad showing black man with EU passport and lily-white woman

https://www.rt.com/news/431692-latvia-racist-political-ad/

Makati1 on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 6:00 pm 



MM’s schizophrenia is getting worse, Greg. Now he claims “someone else” would use his name. Who? Davy, his alter ego? Who would care enough about what he says to go to the trouble? LMAO

GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 6:59 pm 



“I didn’t say that..Someone used my name..You are easily duped..”

My bad. Whoever wrote that actually used proper English sentence structure, and punctuation. I should have caught that right away.

GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 7:04 pm 



Maybe it was Davy MM? The next time he pops up you should ask him.

Davy on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 7:17 pm 



Shut up grehggie. I’ve been busy all week trying to put a fence up around my goat, but the dumbass keeps moving.

Makati1 on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 7:26 pm 



Davy, do you realize how hysterically funny your goat comment is? A week to fence ONE goat and you don’t even have it tied so it cannot move?

I had to wait to type this until I got off the floor and wiped the tears of laughter form my eyes.

BTW: Did you ever get the outhouse door installed? Or was it too complicated? At least the outhouse wasn’t moving. LOL

Davy on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 7:32 pm 



Just another example of what this forum has become. Pretty sad

Davy on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 8:23 pm 



Makati does have a point Davy. Just sayin’.

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 8:31 pm 



I bet Davy fucks his goat when his wife won’t put out.. Rural people tend to be really scummy people in general..

Antius on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 8:51 pm 



“Rural people tend to be really scummy people in general..”

White American non-Jew folk you mean. You are a window into the mind of your people Millimind. Yet more reason for me to thank god that their power is waning.

Cloggie on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 9:38 pm 



millimind gloates: “Latvia probes ‘racist’ election ad showing black man with EU passport and lily-white woman

https://www.rt.com/news/431692-latvia-racist-political-ad/“

So who is behind all this race-mixing propaganda?

https://christophercantwell.com/2018/06/24/whos-behind-the-race-mixing-agenda-in-advertising/

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:12 pm 



Clogg

Google “White couple” and then click “Images”..

LMFAO!

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:14 pm 



Antius

Just wait till society collapses and there is no rule of law..it will be like the movie “The Purge”..Anything goes..Full blown anarchy!

It will be game on for ConservaSHITS!

Davy on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:40 pm 



Whoever you are, you are one seriously messed up individual, in dire need of psychological intervention.

You’ve been plugging this message board up now for over five years.

Get a life loser.

GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:00 pm 



This forum is in desperate need of moderation.

Makati1 on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:04 pm 



Greg, I second that thought. Insanity is allowed to prosper here. It destroys any rational debate.

GregT on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:19 pm 



I’m surprised that this crap has been allowed to go on for so long Mak. This used to be a great place for rational discussion, but it only continues to get more and more ridiculous as time goes on.

Maybe it’s just a sign of the times. Glad I moved when I did.

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:31 pm 



Greg calling for censorship.

Whats next are you going to be burning peak oil books? You Nazi scumbag..

MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:48 pm 



Alice Friedemann – On Fake Peak Oil Demand

The idea that electric cars are lowering demand is ridiculous. Electric cars haven’t made a dent, just a small scratch in oil demand. Electric cars are only 0.2% of light-duty vehicles, and cost so much only the upper 5% can afford them, even with subsidies.

I suspect the peak oil demand idea is one more attempt by the wealthy and powerful to hide peak oil, because peak oil studies have shown that if peak oil were acknowledged, stock markets all over the world would crash since the economy would be shrinking from then on and debts couldn’t be repaid. Credit would freeze and dry up. Panic and social disorder would follow.

https://un-denial.com/2018/07/04/by-alice-friedemann-on-fake-peak-oil-demand/

Boat on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:57 pm 



Clog

Worrying about old culture is yesterday’s news. It’s like reading an oil link from mm. You got to keep up with just in time culture.
Your race back to the past will just start a war you can’t finish.

Boat on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:59 pm 



Mm

That’s what they said about the first smart phone while they built another phone booth.

Cloggie on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 12:07 am 



Great minds think alike. Weasel, Third World, Neder, Bony Juan, and the others are impotent against our unified forces!!!!!!

Wishful thinking, “somewhat” at odds with the rise of Putin, Trump and European populists.

All you will achieve with your call for anarchy is closing of the ethnic ranks and secession.

Toodeledokie.

Boat on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 12:21 am 



Mm

It would be dumb to cry the wolf is at the door when with a little cooperation the wolf danger is decades away. Or a new wolf called mother nature bares her fangs at some point. Etc.

MASTERMIND on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 12:21 am 



Boat

A smart phone an electric car have zero in common..And the unlike the smart phone the electric car has been around for over 100 years..They are junk that is why they never caught on..

MASTERMIND on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 12:24 am 



Boat

You are right, maybe the world can all join hands and sing koombaya and thump a drum..

Boat on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 12:30 am 



Mm

It’s no wonder an idiot like Hitler could bend the minds of simpletons like you. Who’s your Hitler mm.

MASTERMIND on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 1:00 am 



Boat

Thinking that all humans can just get along..Is like throwing a steak into a room of hungry dogs and expecting them all to share it..

Makati1 on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 1:15 am 



It’s fun watching the boards too uneducated bots arguing with each other. LOL

Cloggie on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 3:35 am 



“Thinking that all humans can just get along..Is like throwing a steak into a room of hungry dogs and expecting them all to share it..”

But you are promoting mass migration regardless, right? You basically admit you are a hooligan, a destroyer of functioning societies. Your only motivation is hate. The hate of the leftist sucker against anybody who is successful in life.