Peak Oil is You

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News from September 2017

A Guide To Gracefully Losing Faith In A Collapsing, Dominant Culture

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I recall a Buddhist parable involving a stick that appears from a distance to be a snake, causing fear to rise in the perceiver. As the perception shifts upon closer examination, the fear subsides and the relieved hiker continues down the path. Understanding and awareness have a lot to do with how we feel and […]

Peak Oil? Not So Fast

One hundred and twenty years ago the famous American 19th-century novelist and humorist, Samuel Clemens, better known by his pen name, Mark Twain, responded to speculation over his death with the immortal quip, “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” So, it would seem with oil. The rapid and incessant news of newer and […]

Kunstler: Homework Assignment

Poor old Karl Marx, tortured by boils and phantoms, was right about one thing: History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce. Thus, I give you the Roman Empire and now the United States of America. Rome surrendered to time and entropy. Our method is to drive a gigantic clown car into a ditch. […]

Linking Resource Scarcity with Conflict

Resource scarcity can be explained through three principals. First is basic human security requires adequate resources in the specific location. The human population is unable to meet its basic requirements to sustain human life. This is minimalist approach and needs a minimum amount of resources. Second, it can be defined as existing resource availability to […]

The oilsands at 50: How much life is left in the resource?

On Sept. 30, 1967, the Great Canadian Oil Sands facility opened north of Fort McMurray, Alta., with much fanfare, bunting and speeches by politicians. It was the first large-scale commercial operation of the oilsands, and the result of a gamble taken by Philadelphia’s Sun Oil and its chief executive, J. Howard Pew, and by 100,000 Alberta households […]

It’s Been A Tough Week For Peak Oil Theorists

In news that is certain to upset adherents to the never-dying cult of Peak Oil, IHS Markit released a study on Sept. 25 indicating that, per their analysis of data from more than 440,000 oil wells in the Permian Basin, the basin still has somewhere between 60 and 70 billion barrels of producible oil to give […]

$60 Oil Enters The Realm Of Possibility

Oil markets took a bullish turn this week amid growing geopolitical tensions and a tightening oil market. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) – China and India will account for much of the growth in energy consumption for the next few decades, but the EIA says that energy consumption will […]

Africa’s Richest Man: Oil Is Not The Way Forward

The richest man in Africa says crude oil prices would do Nigeria a favor if they stay lower for longer. Last week at the UN General Assembly, Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote, whose main business is in cement but also holds interests in agricultural commodities and petrochemicals, said that agriculture – not crude oil – is […]

Gail Tverberg: Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong

Most of us are familiar with the Politically Correct (PC) World View. William Deresiewicz describes the view, which he calls the “religion of success,” as follows: There is a right way to think and a right way to talk, and also a right set of things to think and talk about. Secularism is taken for granted. Environmentalism […]

What The Peak Oil Demand Group Is Missing

Summary Demand for oil has increased every single year since the 2008 recession. In spite of EV sales, the global non-EV fleet keeps increasing. Rapid, or even rabid, growth will take a long time to stop the ICE fleet from expanding. The market makes the news. Negative price action begets negative stories, and vice-versa. The […]

Heinberg: Energy and Authoritarianism

Could declining world energy result in a turn toward authoritarianism by governments around the world? As we will see, there is no simple answer that applies to all countries. However, pursuing the question leads us on an illuminating journey through the labyrinth of relations between energy, economics, and politics. The International Energy Agency and the […]

Citi Says Get Ready for an Oil Squeeze

Those in the oil market fearing a flood of OPEC supply next year will probably be better off preparing for a shortage, according to Citigroup Inc. Five countries in the group — Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq — may already be pumping at their maximum capacity this year, Ed Morse, the bank’s global head […]

The Great Energy Transition: The Years Just Ahead

As the global climate continues to deteriorate, consideration of where our civilization is heading becomes more critical with every passing day. The frequency and intensity of hurricanes and cyclones around the world are forcing many to reconsider just how disruptive global warming could become. While many in the U.S. still refuse to accept that the […]

Daniel Yergin talks oilsands past, present and future

Daniel Yergin has made a career out of making sense of the big trends sweeping through the dynamic universe of international oil and natural gas development. The winner of the Pulitzer Prize for his seminal book about the energy sector, The Prize, Yergin is also vice-chairman of IHS Markit, as well as a prominent energy […]

Peak Iran: ‘One of the most underappreciated geopolitical risks in the oil market’

As RBC’s head of commodity strategy in New York, Ms. Croft is closely monitoring the mounting tensions to determine what they could mean for the Iranian nuclear agreement, and, thus, crude supply and prices. And warning about the “precarious” nature of it all. She was referring in a recent report to President Donald Trump’s comments on the […]

‘Game-Changing’ new research on prolific Permian Basin estimates 60 billion to 70 billion barrels remain

Energy researchers at IHS Markit have completed the first, three-year phase of a massive Permian Basin research project that models and interprets the giant basin’s key geologic characteristics to better estimate its remaining hydrocarbon potential, and initial results indicate the giant basin still holds an estimated 60 billion to 70 billion barrels of technically recoverable […]

Plentiful oil will sustain the age of hydrocarbons

Last week, I wrote about the likelihood of a long plateau of oil demand at something around 100m barrels a day for the next two to three decades. That figure reflects a balance between falling consumption of petrol as electric vehicle numbers grow and continuing increases in demand for diesel for the freight business, […]

Aramco IPO to go ahead in 2018

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan told bond investors during a presentation on Monday that the initial public offering (IPO) of Saudi state oil giant Aramco will proceed as planned in 2018, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Aramco has previously said the listing remained “on track” after a report that the oil company was […]

The Financial Collapse is Coming, So You Better Know What You’re Doing

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Despite a week that included President Trump threatening to “totally destroy North Korea,” devastating hurricanes, monstrous earthquakes hitting Mexico and uncertainty with the Federal Reserve unwinding its massive balance sheet – famed investor Jim Rogers says the worst is yet to come. “Last week was not the end of the world because the market is […]

Only ~10% Of UK’s Recoverable Offshore Oil & Gas Reserves Remain

Only around 10% of the UK’s original offshore recoverable oil and gas reserves now remain, according to a new study from the University of Edinburgh. This means that at current rates of extraction, the UK’s reserves will only last another decade or so. Once the UK’s oil and gas reserves run out, it will become […]

US crude surges 3% to settle at $52.22, best closing price in five months

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Brent crude oil hit a new 2017 high, as U.S. crude topped $52 a barrel for the first time in four months. The market expects oil producers to extend a deal to limit output as demand forecasts rise. Hedge funds raised their bets that oil prices will rise, figures from the CFTC show. US crude […]

Kunstler: #Take the Knee

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There’s a lot to complain about in this deranged republic — if it even still is one — but the burdens of being a multimillionaire football player would not be at the top of my list. Personally, I find it a little peculiar that we have to play the national anthem before any sporting event. […]

Riding The Energy Transition – Oil Beyond 2040

The motor vehicle was very quick to replace horses in the early 20th century, and the advent of the electric car suggests that another profound shift in transportation and energy could be around the corner. This column projects how different rates of electric car adoption will effect oil demand and consumption over the next three […]

Opec has lost its crown as world’s top oil player

It’s happy days for Opec, but once the whoops die down, the group should take a long hard look at itself. Because it has lost its crown as the world’s top oil player. Shale billionaire Harold Hamm told Bloomberg TV on Friday that forecasts of US oil production growth are way too optimistic and are […]

Germany gets economic lift with wind energy

With the start of construction of a new wind farm off the coast of Germany, officials said the nation’s economy was supported through low-carbon efforts. German energy company E.ON, with support from Norway’s Statoil, hosted a ceremony to mark the start of construction for the Arkona offshore wind farm, which formally started in late August. […]

How to Survive the Apocalypse

President Trump threatens to “totally destroy North Korea.” Another hurricane lashes out. A second monster earthquake jolts Mexico. Terrorists strike in London. And that’s just this past week or so. Yes, the world is clearly coming to an end. But is there anything you can do to prepare? That is not a philosophical question, or […]

China confirms will limit oil exports to North Korea

China will limit exports of refined petroleum products to North Korea starting October 1, its commerce ministry said, confirming Beijing’s participation in new UN sanctions intended to rein in its rogue neighbour. The United Nations Security Council, including permanent member Beijing, approved tough sanctions against Pyongyang last week in response to its sixth and most […]

Dispersant used to clean 2010 BP oil spill harmed humans

A first-of-its-kind scientific study has determined that the dispersant BP sprayed at the oil gushing from the Deepwater Horizon rig in 2010 harmed human health. The symptoms — coughing, wheezing, skin irritations and burning eyes — tended to last only a little while for most of the people who were cleaning up the spill, said […]

Deals in Code, Arrests in Raids: The Risky Stakes of Oil Middlemen

The worst day of Saman Ahsani’s life began with a 9:30 a.m. knock on the door of the Monaco apartment where he lived with his wife and children. A scrum of law enforcement officials stood in the hallway, flashing a warrant to search the premises and seize property. “What is this about?” Mr. Ahsani asked, […]

Apocalypse How? Climate Change or Peak Oil, Pick Your Poison!

I don’t know about you, but this wretched summer has burned the climate change denier right out of me, and just in the nick of time, too. Apparently, skeptics who question whether anthropogenic global warming causes more intense hurricanes and heat waves are killing us and should be locked up. They are also — according […]

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