Peak Oil is You

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News from April 2015

Of Giants, Super-Giants, And Mega-Giants

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Summary The developments in energy in the USA over the last ten years are a miracle. The USA is now and will remain the dominant world energy producer for decades to come. All Americans should know and be proud of the superlative facts of the US energy revolution. Of Giants, Super Giants and Mega Giants […]

Michael Lynch: Lessons In Oil Price Forecasting

When I published a working paper in 1992 at MIT called “The Fog of Commerce: The Failure of Long-Term Oil Market Forecasting,” many thought the lesson was that forecasting the long-term price of oil couldn’t be done. My actual point had been that bad theories and bad models lead to bad forecasts, specifically the belief […]

Bakken, What Is The Data Telling Us?

North Dakota publishes, every month, a Monthly Statistical Update from which we can gather a wealth of data if we dig deep enough. They publish the number of spuds, that in new wells started, each month, along with the average number of rigs that month. From this we can glean the average number of days each […]

The U.S. Production Decline Has Begun

The U.S. oil production decline has begun. It is not because of decreased rig count. It is because cash flow at current oil prices is too low to complete most wells being drilled. The implications are profound. Production will decline by several hundred thousand of barrels per day before the effect of reduced rig count is […]

Meet the man who could be the next ruler of oil market

There’s no one individual who has the power to shake the world oil markets quite like Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s octogenarian oil minister. So the replacement of al-Naimi as chairman of state-owned Aramco with its former CEO Khalid al-Falih is being read as a signal by oil traders that he could now be the front […]

Roubini: We’re Not Going Back to $100/Barrel Oil

Roubini Global Economics co-founder Nouriel Roubini comments on oil prices during an interview with Bloomberg’s Stephanie Ruhle and Erik Schatzker at the Milken Global Conference in Beverly Hills, CA.

Venezuela rations power

Venezuela’s socialist government on Tuesday announced a nationwide electricity rationing plan to tackle a surge in demand caused by rising temperatures in recent weeks. The measures include cutting the workday for public officials to six hours, asking private companies to boost energy efficiency and inspecting malls and factories to ensure they meet reduced power consumption […]

What the Saudi royal reshuffle means for oil

Uncertainty hit oil markets on Wednesday, with analysts contemplating what a major reshuffle of Saudi Arabia’s ruling elite might meant for the commodity. On Wednesday, it was announced that Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz had appointed a new heir and rotated some of the top ministerial jobs, accelerating the personnel changes set in motion […]

Marcellus Production Outlook

Has Well Productivity Peaked in the Nation’s Largest Shale Gas Play? The Marcellus shale gas play of Pennsylvania and West Virginia came onto the scene in 2007 in a big way and has grown to become the nation’s largest. It has accounted for much of the growth of U.S. shale gas production, and made up […]

European Biofuel Bubble Bursts

Ten years of debate in the European Union over the detrimental effects of the demand for biofuels for transport on food prices, hunger, forest destruction, land consumption and climate change have come to an end. The European Parliament finally agreed new E.U. laws on Apr. 28 to limit the use of crop-based biofuels, setting a […]

EIA projections indicate US becoming a net exporter of natural gas

In its recently released annual energy outlook (AEO2015), EIA expects the US to be a net natural gas exporter by 2017. After 2017, natural gas trade is expected to be driven largely by the availability of natural gas resources and by world energy prices. Increased availability of domestic gas or higher world energy prices each increase […]

Iran Seizes Cargo Ship; Pentagon Sends Destroyer

The ship manager for the container vessel boarded by Iranian forces declined to comment on the status of the vessel on Tuesday. The Pentagon said earlier that the Marshall Islands-flagged Maersk Tigris was boarded by Iranian forces in the Gulf. The Maersk Tigris is managed by Singapore-based Rickmers Ship Management, which is part of Hamburg-based […]

Iran facing shortages of natural gas

Iranian officials have issued fresh warnings over the rising consumption of natural gas in the country. The National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) said on Monday that Iran will not have enough gas to provide the houses in the near future if no measure is taken to contain the current pace of “wasteful consumption” of […]

Will Iran Attempt To Seize Control Of Saudi Oilfields?

IN 1976 an investment banker turned adventure novelist, Paul Erdman, penned a best-selling thriller, The Crash of ’79. Center to the plot was the Shah of Iran making a grab for the oilfields of the Arab Middle East, with a well-armed military, thanks to rising oil prices. Of course, barely 24 months later the […]

Saudi Arabia: the great oil game

Saudi Arabia just increased oil production to a record level, never reached in previous history. They are doing that in a moment of record low oil prices. What do they have in mind? (Image from Arthur Berman) When the collapse of the oil prices started, in the summer of 2014, everyone noticed that Saudi Arabia […]

Humanity needs to live in space or die out

Humans should go and live in space within the next 1,000 years, or it will die out, Stephen Hawking has warned. “We must continue to go into space for the future of humanity,” Mr Hawking said. “I don’t think we will survive another 1,000 years without escaping beyond our fragile planet.” Hawking issued the warning […]

Fighting escalates across Yemen, first air strikes on capital Sanaa

Air raids, naval shelling and ground fighting shook Yemen on Sunday in some of the most widespread combat since a Saudi-led alliance intervened last month against Iranian-allied Houthi militia who have seized large tracts of the country. There were at least five air strikes on military positions and an area near the presidential palace compound […]

US to launch blitz of gas exports

The United States is poised to flood world markets with once-unthinkable quantities of liquefied natural gas as soon as this year, profoundly changing the geo-politics of global energy and posing a major threat to Russian gas dominance in Europe. “We anticipate becoming big players, and I think we’ll have a big impact,” said the Ernest […]

OPEC to take a backseat in 2016 elections

<p>How OPEC works</p> <p>A quick, entertaining explainer on how the cartel affects — or tries to affect — the price of oil.</p> As candidates for the 2016 U.S. general election gear up for a White House run, one villain of recent campaign cycles will be conspicuously absent: the cartel known as OPEC. With the U.S. […]

Ghana told to stop oil drilling

Ghana has been told by an international tribunal not to begin any new offshore drilling for oil in disputed waters with the Ivory Coast. The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea did, however, allow Ghana to continue developing current oilfields. These include the so called-Ten fields, part owned by UK firm Tullow Oil. […]

The bottom is in for oil prices

Traders think the decline in oil prices is over. A report from Bloomberg News on Sunday said traders had pulled their bets that oil prices would fall further at the “fastest pace on record,” citing data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC. And according to John Kilduff at Again Capital, who spoke to […]

Degrowth, Sustainability, and Tackling Global Inequalities

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Recently I was interviewed by Jen Wilton, a UK journalist and researcher, on the subject of degrowth. What follows is the transcript of our phone interview, originally posted here. Q: What would a degrowth society look like? SA: A lot of mainstream environmentalism still clings to the idea that we can dematerialise our ways of […]

What Will Happen To You When The Dollar Collapses?

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Historically, when a nation’s debt exceeds its ability to repay even the interest, it can be assumed that the currency will collapse. Typically, governments exacerbate the situation by printing large amounts of currency notes in an effort to inflate the problem away, or at least postpone it. The greater the level of debt, the more […]

Do we have 10, 20 or 50 years of oil left?

On today’s show: The Oil Alarm! Do we have 10, 20 or 50 years of oil left? The answers will make you reach for your garden trowel. We’ll talk about the failure of the modern oil state to think ahead and look out for itself, and Liam will introduce a new machine to help you […]

A Look At The “Confounding” Global Supply Glut

On Saturday we once again explored the question of whether central banks are creating deflation. The idea that post-crisis DM monetary policy may be causing disinflationary pressures to build is somewhat counterintuitive on its face but in fact makes quite a lot of sense. Here’s how we explained it: The premise is simple. By keeping […]

Solar power is shaking up global energy

One by one, Japan is turning off the lights at the giant oil-fired power plants that propelled it to the ranks of the world’s top industrialized nations. With nuclear power in the doldrums after the Fukushima disaster, it’s solar energy that is becoming the alternative. Solar power is set to become profitable in Japan as […]

Major Breakthrough: Artificial Photosynthesis

In what’s being called a win-win for the environment and the production of renewable energy, researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley, have achieved a major breakthrough in artificial photosynthesis. The scientists have created a system that can capture carbon dioxide emissions before they’re released into the atmosphere and convert […]

Yellowcake Blues

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“Without Russian weapons uranium to downblend, and even with a continuing supply from Uranium One’s holdings in Wyoming, Khazakstan and Canada underwritten by the Clinton Foundation, the United States will be faced with a stark choice.“ In a post for Peak Prosperity on Friday, Chris Martenson observed: In the past ten years police in the […]

Orlov: The Limits of Propaganda

As Paul Craig Roberts has recently reported, the US government is in the process of launching an all-out war on truth. Those who express views contrary to the party line out of Washington will be labeled a threat. Eventually they may find themselves carted to one of the concentration camps which Halliberton (Dick Cheney’s old […]

Latest from Iran

Iran’s gas exports have increased by more than one million cubic meters (mcm) during the first 11 months of the previous Iranian calendar year (ended March 20, 2015) compared to the corresponding period a year before. According to Petroleum Ministry’s SHANA news agency, the country exported 26.8 mcm natural gas during the aforesaid period. The […]

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